H1AND1 wrote:

F500ONE wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

F500ONE wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:He said a low Win share/48. SO why choose above avg ws/48?

I would think if you're average in Win Shares per 48 then

You can't be classified as a GOOD PLAYER hence an average WS48 is a low metric point

And the list I showed are players extremely close to Average

Take for instance Bogut[who GSW needs to win a chip per mrman] and Kyle Korver

I don't understand your point. When has being above avg not been considered good?

Better question yellow, when players are above average but have some years or points in their careers that they really excel. Would you look at a career avg and ignore that a player was pretty sh1tty on his way down?

Have you taken a look at Bogut on GS?

korvers whole career? And compare it to what he is doing now?

sometimes the puppet show is really needed but sometimes I am too tired to do a puppet show.

Well Korver has spent about half his career being closer to average

And it's not a coincidence that the yrs he was more appreciably above average

It coincided with the teams he was on[Bulls & Hawks] This yr Kyle is .170 much further away from average

Wins Produced might be a better metric to judge the average to the good to the great

Bogut once again another player who has spent the majority of his career closer to average .100

But yes he's about where Kyle is this yr on GSW at approximately .170 @ .168

Sure enough though this thread is about Draymond Green right and his is @ .168

And his Win Shares per 48 career wise ironically are on an uptick

Probably have to use another geeky metric that will stamp Dray down because this wasn't the one to use

If you wanted metrics to best the eye tests MELOL!

One thing F5: You do realize that there are differences and degrees of differences so that in one stat or metric the differences between two numbers, say "1" and "2", can actually be quite large. I am not a great math guy but it is my understanding that for WS48 .100 is indeed around the league average however as a players WS48 goes up small increases actually represent big actual gains. The leaderboard for this season in WS48 has Durant at the top at .295 but by the time you get to 10th you are already sub .199 slightly and at 20th you are closer to .100 than to .300. So yes, you will see very good players who have a career WS48 in the .120's due probably to seasons early and/or late in their careers where they were closer to average. And also since the numbers are generally tight and small difference represent huge actual gaps in talent a player who is "above average" can have their career WS48 pulled down by quite a but due to some closer to average or below average seasons. Not every player is amazing and flat out a beast from wire to wire in their NBA careers. In fact, thats the exception and not the rule.

Lets bring it back to the Draymond Green. His WS48 over three seasons is .028, .119, .168 for a career average of .112. Assuming THIS season is closer to what he will become as an NBA player, looking at his career average is kinda silly because that awful rookie .028 is bringing down his average.

well said.

mreinman wrote:F5 just got his clippers thread locked up quickly ... hhhhmmmm .... funny sh1t. Mods maybe onto him MELOL

I think it was how I lead in to first post

The data would have shown much of what many of us believe

And not mutually exclusive to any 1 particular metric over the other

It wouldn't have turned into a bash thread

There was some surprising information I gathered

I was gonna give commendation where due although there

Could have been objective credibility in return

No harm no foul

mreinman wrote:F5 just got his clippers thread locked up quickly ... hhhhmmmm .... funny sh1t. Mods maybe onto him MELOL

I know Martin/Andrew will be upset with me but I saved it......

F500ONE wrote:
They(not Melo) have overtaken them (not Melo) at this point

It was the Dallas Mavericks (not Melo) for most of this season

Anyone (not Melo) care to explain using the metrics delving into style of play and why?(not Melo)

Thought I'd create this (not Melo) thread maybe to avoid where (not Melo) discussion could go

I would like to get everyones Final Answer and repost it with everyones's own anaylsis
Something we could look reflect upon, maybe a few years later, as right now it is quite early to actually determine what he is actually worth
Again, there is no wrong answer RIGHT NOW, I believe he does in fact have the talent/abilities to be a #1 - #2 player where he can actually initiate much of the OFFENSE

While I do not think he is as talented as James Harden, I believe that they Green could be compared in some ways as James Harden was playing as the #3 behind both Durant/Westbrook a nd off the bench on OKC
Right now there is absolutely NO DOUBT that James Harden is in fact an ALL STAR and even as they lossed to Lebron and Heat in the Finals, I said he was the more efficient and better player AFTER Durant, compared to Westbrook

ALL even after he had a poor series, after having to guard the opponents best DEFENDERS throughout the entire Finals run, and Lebron posting up on him surely negated his ability to score because of Lebron's strength/size and advantage he had on him
Harden's ability to penetrate/finish/facilitate, draw double and triples teams, draw fouls, shoot/score, and versatlity to play the PG, SG, and SF, basically had a greater impact than Westbrook running the PnR, where he took the midrange pullup

Green however, is a much better DEFENDER, and HIGHER IQ player
No, he is not the Jordan, however, he could be in some ways our own versions of Scottie Pippen, also a point forward, and also have the skillset/versatility that Pau Gasol/Odom had to initiate our OFFENSE with GREATER DEFENSE
Provide Leadership, Chemistry, work ethic (on and off the court and in the gym), High BB IQ/ability to communicate on both ends, command respect from Teammates, and teach his understanding of the game to both
young players and older players, especially floor spacing/moving without the ball/using picks/how to catch and shoot, being effective with and without the ball
He could be a triple double threat on a nightly basis if he was the #1 - #2 option on the team, however, is effect on the team would be much greater with his knowleadge of the game, within a system that plays off all 5 players abilities, playing a selfless type of basketball that is fun to watch and effective on BOTH ENDS, utilizing EVERYONE as a threat

A player that would become a fan favorite and coach's favorite with his work ethic/defensive versatlity, toughness/ability to create good shots for team mates, and be able to teach/mentor the team as a whole especially with the younger players that will be part of our future

1- 2015 1st rounder (hopefully we can draft OK4 and still buy and trade for multiple 2nd rounders/possibliy move up in the draft for a late 1st rounder as well)
2- Thanasis as he clearly has the upside to be a LOCK DOWN DEFENDER with a NBA body with the versatility to defend 2-3 positions
3- Galloway and any of our other callups from the Weschester Knicks/Summer League Roster/ any younger Knicks that we may keep/sign/trade for like

-Orlando Sanchez between Jared Sullinger/Channing Frye
-Galloway anywhere from a BIGGER/BETTER Chris Duhon to a Billups
-Onuaku a version of Mo Speights/Hickson, though have not seen him shoot the midrange shot, but high motor and efficient

We would still have about 15m to spend on FA's (even if we kept Calderon, add in another 4-5m if we stretched him)
If we keep Cole Aldrich and then resign him with a frontloaded deal as we own his early bird rights while his cap hold is only for the vet min, then we can have the FULL MLE *which will be about 6m and we could divided that up as well

Possible Roster next season
==================================

Galloway *could be 2nd guard or lead guard or be a 6th/7th man*
SG/PG Thanasis *in the future*, SG in FA or draft/ or running 2 PG/Combo guards, imagine if we can acquire either Kawaii or Butler

Green
CA

2015 1st rounder *hopefully OK4 who can be comparable to Anthony Davis's first year, until his body fills out and with some great mentors/trainers to work on his game on both ends*

Bench
---------------

Calderon (could be stretched, giving us another 4-5m, bringing us to about 18m in cap space to use)

IF CA would prefer playing for a contender and NOT be part of this rebuilding roster, would not mind sending him out West to a team like Houston, taking back a bunch of combined 1st round picks and many 2nd rounders with the some their younger guys like DMO, Terrence Jones, Beverely *RFA*, Dorsey, Isiah Cannon, Koustas PAP *5m unguaranteed contract that we drafted, especially if we can move him back out for more picks in this draft/future drafts, In Houston, CA would be able to contend and make more money while Harden takes the pressure of him and gets wide open shots, with Ariza/D12/Josh Smith/Brewer/and whoever able to cover for his defensive liabilities

Cole Aldrich - frontloaded contract that would enable use to have the full 6m MLE to use versus just the BAE worth about 2.7m

15m in cap space - so many different ways I think we can spend this money and fill up our roster but would build it in the image/philosophy of high IQ 2way players that are younger and still have the ability to improve, some of which could start

MLE (which could be divided in 2 players)

D League callups/undrafted FA's

Orland Sanchez
Onuaku

(could do with our without, if we can move these guys and get picks in this draft or future drafts, more power to us
=====================================================================================================================================

Tim Hardaway JR
Early
Jason Smith
Acy

Larkin
Pablo
Louis Lafayeete

mreinman wrote:

holfresh wrote:Classic case of a guy's game who fits a system and team that we want to overpay for...Lance Stevenson the same thing...It doesn't always translate...

agree.

I do think that shooting percentages and efficiency are the easiest to rely on since it (usually) does not really change that much when changing teams.

with that being said, I would look at how close the defender is on his shots. In a good offense, many outside shots come with a defender no where near the shooter. You really want to see how they shoot when contested.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-all-star-team-eastern-western-conference/

Draymond Green — Golden State Warriors

Green deserves a close look, along with Zach Randolph, Derrick Favors, and Gordon Hayward. If a low-usage guy like Korver can make it, why not defense-first fifth option like Green?

It’s a fair question, and it’s a cop-out to just answer, “It’s the West.” Green is a legit defensive player of the year candidate who can withstand Randolph in the post and envelop point guards with his long arms. He’s a great passer — not a good passer, a great one. Only one thing stands between Green and a run for the Western Conference All-Star team: He has to become a better 3-point shooter.

He has hit just 34 percent from deep, and on more than 90 percent of those attempts, no defender has been within four feet of him. That is the perk of being the fourth or fifth option on a great team. Hitting wide-open shots is a valuable skill in that role. But defenses don’t quake at the thought of Green shooting, or send him any extra attention. There is no “stop Draymond Green” game plan.

Teams game plan for his defense, but that’s not quite enough to crack this loaded field.

Interesting. He definitely has time to become a better 3pt shooter but you would think he would have a much higher percentage getting so many open shots.

-He grabbed the OFF REBOUND over Noah and the size of The Bulls without a 7footer in the entire game, with pure heart, hustle, and timing while The Bulls has position to grab the rebound, Giving GS a chance to go to OT
-He did flirt with a triple double, while defending Gasol who has much size over him

@ triple threat

no you did not use the words role player in your post however, you surely implied he was certianly one when describing him throughout your first 2 posts
Btw, he can be a role player, there is nothing wrong if you think that way

With you, it is going to take a bit more time which I do not currently have right now, i will replay another time...

I do agree with you that we should spend more money and focus on our development staff, trainers, some veterans/former players like Billups for Galloway/Ron Harper, Rasheed Wallace for a post player/stretch 4/5, and former defensive specialist like Battier, 3pt shooters/shooters like Billups/Peja/Kapono *who was part of the Laker's roster*, and Brian Shaw overtaking as lead assistant to guide Fisher who clearly isn't ready as a head coach

it isn't that i have a problem with everyone that has a different opinion of me on Green or whoever, but the theories you or whoever used to illustrate your points
For instance with Briggs, despite being the hottest team or 2nd hottest team in the NBA, he has says he has watched a total of about 5games of GS playing, while comparing Green to Acy (which clearly illustrates that he doesn't watch the games and uses the boxscore to justify talents with a team's philosophy is to always hit it to the open man)

- So it is fair to say we do not have Curry or Klay Thompson, however, we will never get those type of talents at their respective ages regardless, while we some talents moving forward on scoring/shooting and defense

- CA *who is a very good shooter, post up, and has the ability to score in just about everywhere on the court* his shot selection and fatigue has been the issue, in which we are looking to fix with an actual system and addition of talents

- 2015 1st rounder which was projected to be a TOP 3 pick in one of the stronger drafts in recent years

- some shooters that can spread the court from range or right inside the 3pt line for example, Tim Hardaway JR, Calderon, Galloway, Jason Smith, and we still have money left over to persue FA's with 6m MLE *could be used on 2 players

- We have others ways we can add talent including, D League callups *on our Weschester Knicks and other D Leagues, undrafted FA's,

- the possiblity of buying/trading for 2nd rounders with many teams having many picks that summer that they cannot all keep, also if we happen to trade Acy/Pablo/Larkin or whoever on our roster, especially during the draft if there is a player that Phil Jackson could be had for at a good/great price

- Thanasis has a very high ceiling and the potential to be a versatile lockdown defender as he continues to work on his OFF game and Galloway looks like he can be a good fit in both OFF and DEF, also I think Orlando Sanchez is going to shock many people here, I have said Galloway and Orlando Sanchez would fit in with this roster/system very well from the start, and that Thanasis has a higher ceiling than Early

- We still have much money left over that we could use on FA's, in addition to the FULL MLE (if we resign Cole Aldrich, which would be 6m and could be divided)

For those who do not think Green is a max player, would they offer a poison pill, structured the same way as Asik/Lin, or a bit different like Lin's initial offer of 4years 5m, 5m, 10m, 10m, Fields offer of 3years 20m, or something in between all of this for other players like Reggie Jackson *who at this point is clearly not getting anything close to what Bledsoe got*

We would actually have a decent amount of cap space to fill our roster, while I would like to target some talents from the teams that have high chemistry like GS, Atlanta, Spurs, etc, and some higher talents on bad teams

1- to offer 2 poison pills *depending on how it is structured*
2- a MAX or NEAR MAX/HUGE contract (depending on who it is or a near MAX)
3- In addition to still having the FULL MLE (if we resign Cole Aldrich with his early bird rights, while his cap hold is at the vet min) which would be 6million and divided on however we wish to with raises

4- this summer bring up, Thanasis *while giving him a 3year deal that we would need to use cap space or part of an exemption on with either MLE or BAE aka LLE which would be about 2.8, however, we could only have either the MLE or BAE aka LLE and not both, while not risking him being a feature poison pill especially if he develops

5- Orlando Sanchez/Onuaku, other D League prospects that would cost the bare minimum, in addition to vet min to offer for Lance Thomas/Lou Amundson and other players that are one team's junk but could be another teams treasure

6- Blatche/Andrew Bynum depending on price as gambles for their post abilities and for Bynum's experience in the Triangle either as a development coach or player if his contract is unguaraneed and low
Another few under the radar type players I like include, Jeremy Evans *ex slam dunk champion with great length* /Brandon Rush/Nick Collison/Donald Sloan, with vet min/low contracts with team options on 2nd year

RonRon wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:

F500ONE wrote:Draymond Green is real CULTURE CHANGING player

Draymond Green is 24 years old. Young? Yes. But still a former 4 year college player ( rare for these days) His fellow draftees from 2012 who were One And Dones are around 21.

Some studies have shown NBA players tend to peak around 24-26. Then an incremental decline phase that increases over time until the end of their careers. Obviously the non super star caliber players will decline earlier and tend to have shorter careers.

Could those three extra years explain his development so far? Sure. Could the Knicks be giving him a contract that covers his prime years? Possibly. Could the Knicks be paying him big money to cover a time period where they eat a decline phase halfway through? Possibly.

Some of you guys can feel how you want to feel. If you feel Draymond Green is a max player, then more power to you.

Personally, my take, I'm not so hot about spending 15 million a year on a player who hasn't proven he can truly move the needle for the Knicks over a much longer period of time. A nice season and a half doesn't move the needle for me, but I guess it might for some of you.

I suppose I just see a much more conservative approach to team building. I don't buy into the Briggs-ian Theory, where if a player has a great game the night before, then demand the team trade for him, or if a guy has a great college game, then he must be a draft target. Or if a player has a bad homestand stretch, he needs to be gutted and traded now. Overpays IMHO are reactions to losing and an franchise in desperate need of stability.

Teams get in trouble chasing the latest hot name. Only to chase the next hot name.

IMHO, the key to Draymond Green for the Knicks isn't getting him specifically, but learning how to get and develop players like him.

And if some of you think a 24 year old non All Star is going to suddenly wave his 15 million dollar a year check and be the big swinging dick that cracks down on the Knicks poor locker room culture and lack of leadership and suddenly course correct Melo, then I think some of you guys are bat**** insane.

A Paul Pierce has the hardware, experience, exposure, minutes and rapport to change a locker room culture. But I doubt it would be a Draymond Green.

I like Green as a fan and I like his game. Because Green can HELP A TEAM doesn't mean he's the BEST FIT TO HELP THIS TEAM.

Draymond Green is 24 years old. Young? Yes. But still a former 4 year college player ( rare for these days) His fellow draftees from 2012 who were One And Dones are around 21.

Some studies have shown NBA players tend to peak around 24-26. Then an incremental decline phase that increases over time until the end of their careers. Obviously the non super star caliber players will decline earlier and tend to have shorter careers.

Could those three extra years explain his development so far? Sure. Could the Knicks be giving him a contract that covers his prime years? Possibly. Could the Knicks be paying him big money to cover a time period where they eat a decline phase halfway through? Possibly.

First off, TripleThreat praises Draymond Green for staying in college for 4years then snubs him for his age, though he doesn't have nearly as much wear and tear from the NBA and its 82 game schedule

according to the studies that TripleThreat is suggesting, NBA players PEAK around 24-26 and decline after, and by giving a contract to anyone after would be in decline and a risk, while they decline
Which one is it? Do you prefer young talent or a more mature talent that is able to develop their fundamentals in college and even earlier to go with their physical abilities?

While some people on these boards tend to use BOXSCORES, numbers, and STATS (no pun intended) to evaluate skills, value, and measure talent

And if some of you think a 24 year old non All Star is going to suddenly wave his 15 million dollar a year check and be the big swinging dick that cracks down on the Knicks poor locker room culture and lack of leadership and suddenly course correct Melo, then I think some of you guys are bat**** insane.

A Paul Pierce has the hardware, experience, exposure, minutes and rapport to change a locker room culture. But I doubt it would be a Draymond Green.

Seriously, first you said all of the above about 24-26 and declining and then you praise all people, Paul Pierce
Who has done NOTHING until they acquired KG who actually changed the culture of that team, in addition to to Ray Allen and many very good defenders/role players
With arguable top 4/5 at the time with Perkins/Rajon Rhondo, and not just the BIG 3 of KG, PP, Ray Allen

Ron I would not argue or bother with Triple Threat He will criticize every player anyone brings to the table skirt answers and the only guy I have heard him say he likes is Robin Lopez and then he wants you to draft the big black man.

Ron--I wouldnt pay Green the max--thats me--some might but I will tell you this--if SOMEONE does pay Dray Green the offer will be matched so it will be a waste of a week. Green's a great player and PERFECT for for GS but hes not going anywhere. Remember this Ron--Green MIGHT not fit in here as well. We don't have 2 have an MVP guard and all start in our back-court to spread the floor.

Same with Kawaii, if we can get them both it would multiply in greatness and youth, elevating our pick to his full potential and faster, along with Thanasis, Galloway, Orlando Sanchez, and whoever is willing to listen and play TEAM BBALL on BOTH ENDS in terms of DEFENSE, rebounding, and efficiency (floor spacing, cuts, ball movement and player movement, with both picks on and off the ball, catch and shoot situations, lanes to penetrate, and HOW TO DEFEND for 1v1 and TEAM defense)

He can teach our youth's a lot of what GS has been doing all year, even if we do not have a Steph Curry or Klay Thompson, we could resemble a team closer to Atlanta with a coach on the floor and a mentor on the court, in the gym, and in the bench

He is the BIGGEST difference from GS jump from last year and previous years to this years GS team
I understand we can only play as good as our talents can take us, which we clearly lacked, however, there a reasons why Tyson Chandler, Iman Shumpert, JR Smith, Ben Udrih, Pablo Prigs, ALL LOOK BETTER instintly on other teams, it is LEADERSHIP and having HIGH IQ with talent that plays as a TEAM

among

Trevor Ariza, Jordan Hill, Wilson Chandler/Gallo, David Lee, and whoever

I really think Ajinicia should be our #1 realistic FA, while I know you like Ernes Kanter though he is a RFA
I think Kanter fits in with Westbrook and the BIGS of OKC to do the dirty work, is great in the PnR with Westbrook abiltiy to penetrate/finish/facilitate and do not think he can be our #1 option like a Shaq/Pau Gasol in the Triangle

If he gets the opportunity to play in this series, which I think he should over Asik because both Anthony Davis and Ajinicia would cover much ground together with their length, size, mobility, athleticism, shot blocking, reboundig, and both could shoot

to beat GS, you need to be able to play DEFENSE, and unless Jrue Holiday is back to 90%, NO doesn't play good enough defense with their style of play outside of AD for their starters

No other team in the entire NBA can both SCORE SO FAST and SHUT YOU DOWN on DEFENSE, with the ability to get hot very quickly and scoring in bunches in a short time period