I just don't see CA staying for the benefit of for 2 main reasons
1- It is always about him FIRST, including the chance the compete and WIN NEXT SEASON and BEYOND
In no order, Bulls, Houston, and Heat(with only 2.1m committed to the contract of Norris Cole and many of the STATE TAX FREE being both part of 1/2)
2- MONEY, he can take a pay cut anywhere, why take a pay cut to stay with the Knicks, when their future his uncertain, and he if he takes less, he instantly becomes a trading chip/asset
In the end, it comes down to FIT for CA, he knows he needs a VERY STRONG DEFENSIVE core to compliment him, and either multiple OFFENSIVE threats to take the pressure off him/or a great facilitating/score that can initiate the OFFENSE outside of him
It is, will we get compensation in a sign and trade with him or LOSE him for NOTHING
I don't see us getting much for him either, especially if it is with the Heat (though unless they screw Wade, the BIG 4 will have to take much less especially Wade maybe about 5x 10m at best, then there will be over 50m to use on 3 players, now if they are willing to even take less, have enough cap space, to sign/trade for another player and the full 5m MLE, with many vet mins coming at discounts)
Heat
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If Lebron/Melo/Bosh make a starting salary of about 15m each = 45m, they could still trade Norris Cole/future picks/draft rights for Lowry, and have the FULL MLE to offer a player like Ariza/Gasol
They can also trade Napier in that deal, which I forgot is a 1st rounder, a small trade exemption, relieving some more salary, though Lowry would also be making a bit less, a contract of about 7-8m, like the one Dragic signed at 7.5m last season with the Suns
I can see Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, vet mins in players like Mike Miller *returning*/James Johnson/Trevor Booker/Dejuan Blaire joining the Heat, and question marks on Chris Anderson/James Jones *The Heat can sign vet min players to replace their roles that could be BETTER than them though, they have experience/chemistry with the players/coaching already
Many teams don't NEED to pay ANYTHING for him in trades, therefore we lose all leverage in all negations, coming down to where Melo wants to go
Though teams might prefer to trade for him, especially like Bulls instead of amnestying Boozer, probably more importantly, getting the FULL 5m MLE to utilize instead of over 2m, which is the bi annual exemption aka LLE
With both Wade and even Haslem taking a leap of faith that their sacrifice will be rewarded for the better of the team, Riley could screw them and utilize the cap space better, making their team even stronger than it possibly could be
Like Riley said after the finals, Wade will have to "REINVENT" himself with another role/style of play, possibly even as a 6th man type role