dk7th wrote:

DurzoBlint wrote:I don't care how much it would improve things where I work, there is no damn way I''m going to take a pay cut so, I think its hypocritical of my to say he should take a pay cut.

Hell if I was Melo I would be like show me the money too. If you want me to take a pay cut, then you (management) needs to sell me on it. Prove to me that the organization is fully committed to winning FIRST. Prove to me that you have a competent plan FIRST.

Unless management does so, they there is NO reason for him to take a pay cut and anyone who says different is either jealous, simply hating or blowing smoke out their ass.

he is responsible for the state of the team when he forced a trade here instead of waiting. he needs to man up and take ownership of the situation, not demand that ownership man up and come up with a plan now that he has failed to bring a championship here.

i find your reasoning incredibly myopic here.

Reasoning? He wanted to come to your team. What was he supposed to wait for, the new CBA to cause him to lose more money, all because you still have a hardon for the flotsam we sent to Denver, what was going to amount to mid to low level draft picks and cap space for some other starphucque?

He's supposed to wait, sign for shit money so you can play with yourself on RealGm building the team the way YOU think it should be built?

Did STAT force his way here for 100 mil?

You and your ilk need to let the past go. He's a professional athelete, and a one-man business. If he blew his knees out waiting to sign when YOU thought it was okay, would you be sending him get well money?

Pathetic.

azamatbagatov wrote:We all know Melo isn't taking a pay cut and we all know the Knicks don't have the balls to let him walk. The one thing in common here is neither ownership nor Melo's top priority is winning a championship. The sad thing is how so many "knicks fans" are willing to give both of them a pass on it.

SupremeCommander wrote:The supporting cast needs to get better than it is, but got better than it was.

I don't understand how the advanced stat crowd hates Melo, yet he is #73 on basketballreference.com's Hall of Fame probability list. He's in between Chris Paul and Dwight Horward among active players with their regression. That sounds right to me, and he still has plenty of career left

Rank	Player				HoF Prob
1	Bill Russell*				1
2	Wilt Chamberlain*			1
3	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*			1
4	Michael Jordan*				1
5	John Havlicek*				1
6	Kobe Bryant				1
7	Bob Cousy*				1
8	Magic Johnson*				1
9	Shaquille O'Neal			1
10	Larry Bird*				0.9999
11	Bob Pettit*				0.9999
12	Jerry West*				0.9999
13	Tim Duncan				0.9999
14	Oscar Robertson*			0.9999
15	Elgin Baylor*				0.9999
16	George Mikan*				0.9999
17	Karl Malone*				0.9995
18	LeBron James				0.9995
19	Sam Jones*				0.9994
20	Tom Heinsohn*				0.9994
21	Dwyane Wade				0.9991
22	Kevin Garnett				0.999
23	Isiah Thomas*				0.9989
24	Hakeem Olajuwon*			0.9987
25	Elvin Hayes*				0.9983
26	Allen Iverson				0.998
27	Charles Barkley*			0.9979
28	Dolph Schayes*				0.9978
29	Vern Mikkelsen*				0.997
30	Moses Malone*				0.997
31	Neil Johnston*				0.996
32	Slater Martin*				0.9959
33	Paul Arizin*				0.995
34	Scottie Pippen*				0.9944
35	Dave Cowens*				0.9935
36	Julius Erving*				0.9928
37	David Robinson*				0.9927
38	Jim Pollard*				0.9886
39	Dirk Nowitzki				0.9867
40	Jerry Lucas*				0.9844
41	Ed Macauley*				0.9835
42	Paul Pierce				0.9827
43	Clyde Drexler*				0.9824
44	Bill Sharman*				0.9816
45	Willis Reed*				0.98
46	George Yardley*				0.9782
47	Rick Barry*				0.9779
48	Dave DeBusschere*			0.9731
49	Hal Greer*				0.9708
50	Ray Allen				0.9663
51	Harry Gallatin*				0.9645
52	Walt Frazier*				0.9637
53	Patrick Ewing*				0.9627
54	Dominique Wilkins*			0.9618
55	Robert Parish*				0.9569
56	Jason Kidd				0.9493
57	Chris Bosh				0.9484
58	George Gervin*				0.948
59	Bob McAdoo*				0.9303
60	Bailey Howell*				0.9188
61	Chris Paul				0.8911
62	Billy Cunningham*			0.8905
63	Gary Payton*				0.8826
64	Lenny Wilkens*				0.8793
65	Bob Lanier*				0.8782
66	Kevin McHale*				0.8741
67	John Stockton*				0.8609
68	Jo Jo White				0.8449
69	Arnie Risen*				0.8364
70	Tony Parker				0.8319
71	Nate Thurmond*				0.8264
72	James Worthy*				0.821
73	Carmelo Anthony				0.8167
74	Adrian Dantley*				0.8102
75	Dwight Howard				0.8072

Do I wish Melo was more? Yeah. But he's still pretty good in his own right.

I've pointed out that Melo's around the top 10 active players for HOF in other threads. No response.
It doesn't matter, he suhucks, he's greedy, he's a loser, he's inefficient, he's not a good passer, he can't defend, he doesn't rebound, his face is annoying, he cost us the universe to come here, blah blah blah...

Watch them now provide you with an exercise in downgrading as many names as possible on the list above him.

azamatbagatov wrote:

TeamBall wrote:

azamatbagatov wrote:We all know Melo isn't taking a pay cut and we all know the Knicks don't have the balls to let him walk. The one thing in common here is neither ownership nor Melo's top priority is winning a championship. The sad thing is how so many "knicks fans" are willing to give both of them a pass on it.

How is anyone giving them a pass?

Have you read this thread?

dk7th wrote:

DurzoBlint wrote:I don't care how much it would improve things where I work, there is no damn way I''m going to take a pay cut so, I think its hypocritical of my to say he should take a pay cut.

Hell if I was Melo I would be like show me the money too. If you want me to take a pay cut, then you (management) needs to sell me on it. Prove to me that the organization is fully committed to winning FIRST. Prove to me that you have a competent plan FIRST.

Unless management does so, they there is NO reason for him to take a pay cut and anyone who says different is either jealous, simply hating or blowing smoke out their ass.

he is responsible for the state of the team when he forced a trade here instead of waiting. he needs to man up and take ownership of the situation, not demand that ownership man up and come up with a plan now that he has failed to bring a championship here.

i find your reasoning incredibly myopic here.

No one can blame him for wanting to have a deal locked in going into the unknown of the new CBA and what was known to be a definite lockout. Had the situation been different than yes i agree, but it wasn't. It was a bad year to be a free agent, and players wanted to rest easy knowing their situation before the inevidible lockout. Blame him all you want, but 99.9% of players would have done the same in his situation.

SupremeCommander wrote:The supporting cast needs to get better than it is, but got better than it was.

I don't understand how the advanced stat crowd hates Melo, yet he is #73 on basketballreference.com's Hall of Fame probability list. He's in between Chris Paul and Dwight Horward among active players with their regression. That sounds right to me, and he still has plenty of career left

Rank	Player				HoF Prob
1	Bill Russell*				1
2	Wilt Chamberlain*			1
3	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*			1
4	Michael Jordan*				1
5	John Havlicek*				1
6	Kobe Bryant				1
7	Bob Cousy*				1
8	Magic Johnson*				1
9	Shaquille O'Neal			1
10	Larry Bird*				0.9999
11	Bob Pettit*				0.9999
12	Jerry West*				0.9999
13	Tim Duncan				0.9999
14	Oscar Robertson*			0.9999
15	Elgin Baylor*				0.9999
16	George Mikan*				0.9999
17	Karl Malone*				0.9995
18	LeBron James				0.9995
19	Sam Jones*				0.9994
20	Tom Heinsohn*				0.9994
21	Dwyane Wade				0.9991
22	Kevin Garnett				0.999
23	Isiah Thomas*				0.9989
24	Hakeem Olajuwon*			0.9987
25	Elvin Hayes*				0.9983
26	Allen Iverson				0.998
27	Charles Barkley*			0.9979
28	Dolph Schayes*				0.9978
29	Vern Mikkelsen*				0.997
30	Moses Malone*				0.997
31	Neil Johnston*				0.996
32	Slater Martin*				0.9959
33	Paul Arizin*				0.995
34	Scottie Pippen*				0.9944
35	Dave Cowens*				0.9935
36	Julius Erving*				0.9928
37	David Robinson*				0.9927
38	Jim Pollard*				0.9886
39	Dirk Nowitzki				0.9867
40	Jerry Lucas*				0.9844
41	Ed Macauley*				0.9835
42	Paul Pierce				0.9827
43	Clyde Drexler*				0.9824
44	Bill Sharman*				0.9816
45	Willis Reed*				0.98
46	George Yardley*				0.9782
47	Rick Barry*				0.9779
48	Dave DeBusschere*			0.9731
49	Hal Greer*				0.9708
50	Ray Allen				0.9663
51	Harry Gallatin*				0.9645
52	Walt Frazier*				0.9637
53	Patrick Ewing*				0.9627
54	Dominique Wilkins*			0.9618
55	Robert Parish*				0.9569
56	Jason Kidd				0.9493
57	Chris Bosh				0.9484
58	George Gervin*				0.948
59	Bob McAdoo*				0.9303
60	Bailey Howell*				0.9188
61	Chris Paul				0.8911
62	Billy Cunningham*			0.8905
63	Gary Payton*				0.8826
64	Lenny Wilkens*				0.8793
65	Bob Lanier*				0.8782
66	Kevin McHale*				0.8741
67	John Stockton*				0.8609
68	Jo Jo White				0.8449
69	Arnie Risen*				0.8364
70	Tony Parker				0.8319
71	Nate Thurmond*				0.8264
72	James Worthy*				0.821
73	Carmelo Anthony				0.8167
74	Adrian Dantley*				0.8102
75	Dwight Howard				0.8072
76	Alex English*				0.8008
77	Bobby Wanzer*				0.7799
78	Tiny Archibald*				0.779
79	Dave Bing*				0.7726
80	Vince Carter				0.7678
81	Bob Davies*				0.7545
82	Gus Johnson*				0.747
83	Chris Webber				0.7459
84	Pete Maravich*				0.7406
85	Walt Bellamy*				0.7272
86	Clyde Lovellette*			0.7238
87	Chet Walker*				0.7233
88	Kevin Durant				0.7203
89	Willie Naulls				0.7173
90	Dick McGuire*				0.6746
91	Jack Sikma				0.6593
92	Mitch Richmond				0.6581
93	Frank Ramsey*				0.6549
94	Bob Dandridge				0.647
95	Wes Unseld*				0.6464
96	Andy Phillip*				0.6292
97	Pau Gasol				0.6127
98	Mel Hutchins				0.5991
99	Cliff Hagan*				0.5855
100	Tracy McGrady				0.5822
101	Dennis Rodman*				0.578
102	Tim Hardaway				0.5627
103	Steve Nash				0.5627
104	Dennis Johnson*				0.5572
105	Amar'e Stoudemire			0.556
106	Alonzo Mourning				0.5351
107	Jamaal Wilkes*				0.5264
108	Gail Goodrich*				0.5177
109	Spencer Haywood				0.5158
110	Jack Coleman				0.4912
111	Joe Dumars*				0.4673
112	K.C. Jones*				0.4642
113	Marques Johnson				0.4629
114	Tom Sanders				0.4549
115	Jack Twyman*				0.4219
116	Mark Aguirre				0.4217
117	Brad Daugherty				0.4196
118	Richie Guerin*				0.4073
119	Larry Foust				0.3881
120	Yao Ming				0.3769
121	Bernard King*				0.3769
122	Lou Hudson				0.3584
123	Grant Hill				0.3553
124	Kevin Johnson				0.3318
125	Shawn Marion				0.3099
126	Norm Nixon				0.2883
127	David Thompson*				0.2762
128	Steve Francis				0.2646
129	Earl Monroe*				0.2518
130	Artis Gilmore*				0.2506
131	Joe Fulks*				0.2492
132	Gilbert Arenas				0.2491
133	Antoine Walker				0.2436
134	Deron Williams				0.2394
135	Bill Bridges				0.2304
136	George McGinnis				0.2301
137	Sam Cassell				0.2281
138	Chauncey Billups			0.2228
139	Rajon Rondo				0.2137
140	Rudy Tomjanovich			0.2129
141	Larry Costello				0.2102
142	Paul Seymour				0.2007
143	Glenn Robinson				0.2
144	Sidney Wicks				0.1954
145	Bill Laimbeer				0.1943
146	Ron Harper				0.1941
147	Tom Gola*				0.1933
148	Walter Davis				0.1881
149	Connie Hawkins*				0.1753
150	Joe Johnson				0.1729
151	Stephon Marbury				0.1715
152	Red Kerr				0.1686
153	Bill Walton*				0.1619
154	Micheal Ray Richardson			0.1607
155	Rudy LaRusso				0.1521
156	Charlie Scott				0.1473
157	Maurice Lucas				0.1463
158	Wayne Embry				0.1339
159	Manu Ginobili				0.1331
160	Chris Mullin*				0.1318
161	George King				0.1258
162	Mark Price				0.1233
163	Sidney Moncrief				0.1231
164	Red Rocha				0.1194
165	Latrell Sprewell			0.1134
166	Bob Harrison				0.1128
167	Shawn Kemp				0.1121
168	Paul Silas				0.111
169	Geoff Petrie				0.1077
170	Guy Rodgers				0.1062
171	Paul Westphal				0.106
172	John Drew				0.1046
173	Gus Williams				0.0982
174	Fred Scolari				0.0963
175	Jeff Mullins				0.0945
176	Horace Grant				0.0882
177	Alvin Robertson				0.0855
178	Nathaniel Clifton			0.0843
179	Gene Shue				0.0837
180	Carlos Boozer				0.0796
181	Max Zaslofsky				0.0793
182	Dan Roundfield				0.0774
183	Elton Brand				0.0766
184	Otis Birdsong				0.0747
185	Maurice Cheeks				0.0724
186	Glen Rice				0.072
187	Frankie Brian				0.0717
188	Dan Issel*				0.0688
189	Larry Siegfried				0.0683
190	Carl Braun				0.0681
191	Baron Davis				0.0673
192	Reggie Miller*				0.0644
193	Dikembe Mutombo				0.0639
194	Don Ohl				        0.0605
195	Larry Nance				0.0593
196	Fat Lever				0.0576
197	Jack Nichols				0.0568
198	Tom Chambers				0.0558
199	Antawn Jamison				0.0556
200	Robert Horry				0.0548
201	Zach Randolph				0.0544
202	Norm Van Lier				0.0543
203	Zelmo Beaty				0.0537
204	Larry Johnson				0.052
205	Richard Hamilton			0.0508
206	Doug Collins				0.0488
207	Rolando Blackman			0.0486
208	Anfernee Hardaway			0.0478
209	Rasheed Wallace				0.0472
210	Truck Robinson				0.0471
211	Reggie Theus				0.0456
212	Happy Hairston				0.0427
213	Don Nelson				0.0417
214	Calvin Murphy*				0.0405
215	World B. Free				0.0396
216	David Lee				0.0395
217	Phil Chenier				0.0393
218	Jermaine O'Neal				0.0385
219	Larry Kenon				0.0371
220	Michael Cooper				0.0357
221	Johnny Green				0.0343
222	Peja Stojakovic				0.0336
223	Randy Smith				0.0335
224	Archie Clark				0.0331
225	Lamar Odom				0.0329
226	LaMarcus Aldridge			0.032
227	Michael Adams				0.0319
228	Terrell Brandon				0.0315
229	Jim Loscutoff				0.0305
230	Andrew Toney				0.0302
231	Buck Williams				0.03
232	Monta Ellis				0.0299
233	Dick Barnett				0.0297
234	Bob Love				0.0296
235	Dick Van Arsdale			0.0296
236	Jamal Mashburn				0.0292
237	Earl Lloyd				0.0288
238	Derek Fisher				0.0286
239	Vin Baker				0.0275
240	Derrick Coleman				0.0274
241	Shareef Abdur-Rahim			0.0274
242	Ralph Sampson*				0.0269
243	Mookie Blaylock				0.0264
244	Byron Scott				0.0243
245	Phil Smith				0.0242
246	Bob Boozer				0.0238
247	Jerry Sloan				0.0232
248	Jack McMahon				0.0231
249	Michael Finley				0.0228
250	Calvin Natt				0.0223

Do I wish Melo was more? Yeah. But he's still pretty good in his own right.

Bonn1997 wrote:This is not based on advanced stats. They're calculating, based on amateur perception, how likely the player is to make the hall-of-fame. Anyone who has put up high PPG for many years will make the list. It's basically calculating how popular the player is. Did you read what it said under "Method"?

Is a linear regression not advanced enough for you?

Hall of Fame Probability

Explanation ▪ Career & Active Leaders

Introduction

What statistics or accomplishments have the Hall of Fame voters deemed to be most important? This question can be answered using a technique called logistic regression. The logistic regression model is a binary response model where the response is classified as either a "success" (in this case, being elected to the Hall of Fame) or a "failure" (not being elected to the Hall of Fame). One or more predictor variables are selected and the resulting model can be used to predict the probability of a success given certain values of the predictor(s).

Building the Model

For the Hall of Fame problem, I tried to use as many predictor variables as I could think of, but I did not use statistics that have not been kept for most of the NBA's history (e.g., steals). My player pool consisted of players who had played a minimum of 400 NBA games and had been eligible for at least one Hall of Fame election. After trying numerous models, my final model had seven predictor variables:

height (in inches)
last season indicator (1 if 1959-60 or before, 0 otherwise)
NBA points per game
NBA rebounds per game
NBA assists per game
NBA All-Star game selections
NBA championships won
All of the predictors listed above were significant at the 0.05 level. Other than height, all of the predictors had positive coefficients. ABA statistics, honors, and championships were not important predictors of Hall of Fame status, which is why I only used NBA statistics in my final model. I don't like ignoring the ABA statistics, but that's what the voters have apparently done. Keep in mind that my goal was not to determine who in the Hall of Fame, but rather who is likely to be in the Hall of Fame.

The table below gives the parameter estimates of the coefficients for each of the seven predictors:

height -0.1771
last season indicator 3.1498
NBA points per game 0.3433
NBA rebounds per game 0.4193
NBA assists per game 0.3327
NBA All-Star game selections 0.5626
NBA championships won 0.9151
Example

The parameter estimates given in the previous section can be used to obtain the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election for a particular player. I will go through an example using Jo Jo White. Find the values of the seven predictor variables for White, multiply them by the coefficients given in the table above, and find the sum of the products:

height -0.1771 * 75 = -13.2825
last season indicator 3.1498 * 0 = 0
NBA points per game 0.3433 * 17.2031 = 5.9058
NBA rebounds per game 0.4193 * 3.9964 = 1.6757
NBA assists per game 0.3327 * 4.8925 = 1.6277
NBA All-Star game selections 0.5626 * 7 = 3.9382
NBA championships won 0.9151 * 2 = 1.8302
----------------------------------------------------------
1.6951
To find the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election, do the following:

P(HoF election) = 1 / (1 + e**(-(1.6951)))
= 0.845
Based on Jo Jo White's statistics and accomplishments, the probability that he has been elected to the Hall of Fame is 0.845.

Summary

Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of 400 NBA games played. Although it can be risky to make predictions for active players, you can think of these probabilities as answering the question "If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?". The model was built using a pool of 750 players. One method to assess classification accuracy is to compare the estimated Hall of Fame probability for the case to the actual result. Of the 750 players, 89 had been elected to the Hall of Fame and 661 had not. If the player's predicted probability of election was greater than or equal to 0.5, I predicted that he was in the Hall of Fame. Of the 89 players in the Hall of Fame, 74 were correctly classified (83.1%) and 15 were not (16.9%). Of the 661 players not in the Hall of Fame, 651 were correctly classified (98.5%) and 10 were not (1.5%). Overall, 725 of the 750 players (96.7%) were correctly classified by the model.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Might as well forget that notion.

foosballnick wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

knickscity wrote:

martin wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:

Vmart wrote:Knicks shouldn't pay that kind of money to a below 50% shooter.

I'm not saying Melo is as good as Kobe Bryant but there are players worth the money that shoot below 50 percent

I hope the Knicks would offer Melo something like $110 mil over 5 and try to negotiate

To brign Kobe up again, the LAkers plan A is to pair Kobe with Melo. On Mike and Mike in the Morning, they say that Melo and LBJ would be arguably the greatest tandem the league has ever seen. Think about that for a second. Melo has to do more, but he also needs some of the right pieces. I know the trade set that process back a little, but all I know is the roster keeps (marginally) improving around him.

for me the offer should be tied to how his salary fits into the whole team's salary structure, including other FA players in 2015. If he starts out at say ~$15M with max increases and Knicks able to snag another max candidate or so, I'm all for it. If the offer starts at $20M and all we can do is sign someone not on roster for $7M, then what's the point?

I'm sorry, there is no way he does that....and if he did...why do it here, any team could clear space to offer him that.

To be honest, Melo's salary will be dictated by what happens this season....if the team regresses, then there should be no talks of a max deal...and he can and should walk.

Now if the team does reach the ECF and battle Miami...even in a loss, the job is done imo...get your money playa.

A static season of 2nd round flame out should command a modest reduction, which i doubt he takes, but will be required to move forward.

But 15 mil starting is a pipe dream, he isn't giving up 8 mil a season.

I dont think there has been a star player in the history of the game who's fiven up that much at his age.

Dirk was 32, KG was 34...Kidd was 36, Duncan I think was 32 or 33.

Thats asking alot from a then to be newly turned 30 year old.

if he doesn't stay for less then the whole "coming home" angle is exposed as hypocrisy-- not only that but it is proof positive that doesn't truly believe he can win in new york or anywhere else for that matter as the main guy.

he isn't as good as these other guys and the sooner he realizes that the sooner he can ask for an amount that is less inflated, more realistic... if he want's a legit shot at winning.

you are 100% correct, but we both know, there is no evidence to show that he is the type of guy that will take less in order to be in a better situation.. we saw it as he forced his way here.. he didn't care what the knicks had to give up.. he wanted his money, and his wife's reality show..... he is going to money grab, and do so at the expense of the knicks.. why not? most fans still will think he is the "greatest" and doesn't have "help"... the same old, same old...story..

I never begrudge anyone the money they can earn and I find it intellectually dishonest when people call for athletes to take less. Would you take a voluntary 33% pay cut next year so your organization can achieve a higher standing? I just don't see many people saying.....hey, please cut my $100K salary to $66K next year so the department can bring in some new blood.

If the Knicks sign Melo to a $25 mil long term contract....it is on them, not Melo.

I actually had this discussion here on the board before.. I am the controller of a pretty decent sized mfg company. I have taken a sizeable paycut a year ago so that we could reach organizational goals and honestly save some jobs.. so yes.. and so far it has paid off as i will see that back and more in the future as we picked up a HUGE contract....with a fortune 500 company..

But I will say this, someone making 100k and losing 33% is huge, while the person making 20 mil is losing the same Percentage, I doubt that their lives will be altered at all by leaving that on the table.. as opposed to the average working person..