Papabear wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

Those are their predictions for last season and a couple of things stand out. They got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct in the East, picking Philly over Brooklyn, and 6 out of 8 in the West, picking Minnesota and New Orleans over Houston and Golden State (the Minnesota pick is at least justifiable since you can't predict Love missing pretty much the entire season). They nailed a handful of teams going against the general consensus predicting NY to win 56, Denver to win 55, and LAL to win 47.

But how did they come to their prediction? would it matter that you got the prediction right but your reasoning for why a team should win those games wrong?

It's straight statistical analysis based on David Berri's Wins Produced.

I know but who did they predict to get the wins share to get to their predictions. (I'm on my phone so I can't check the link like I want to). I have an idea.

Are you implying that they predicted in advance the right win totals but gave the wrong weights to different players? They'd have to be off by precisely counterbalanced amounts to still come up with the right totals - like giving 4 more wins than they should have to player B for every time they gave 4 too few to player A.

Papabear Says

33 wins Bonn that would make you very happy. Too bad that will never happen.

hahaha. It would make me happy only if it led to Dolan selling the team.

Bonn1997 wrote:

Papabear wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

Those are their predictions for last season and a couple of things stand out. They got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct in the East, picking Philly over Brooklyn, and 6 out of 8 in the West, picking Minnesota and New Orleans over Houston and Golden State (the Minnesota pick is at least justifiable since you can't predict Love missing pretty much the entire season). They nailed a handful of teams going against the general consensus predicting NY to win 56, Denver to win 55, and LAL to win 47.

But how did they come to their prediction? would it matter that you got the prediction right but your reasoning for why a team should win those games wrong?

It's straight statistical analysis based on David Berri's Wins Produced.

I know but who did they predict to get the wins share to get to their predictions. (I'm on my phone so I can't check the link like I want to). I have an idea.

Are you implying that they predicted in advance the right win totals but gave the wrong weights to different players? They'd have to be off by precisely counterbalanced amounts to still come up with the right totals - like giving 4 more wins than they should have to player B for every time they gave 4 too few to player A.

Papabear Says

33 wins Bonn that would make you very happy. Too bad that will never happen.

hahaha. It would make me happy only if it led to Dolan selling the team.

That won't happen. So what's next??? You become a Pacers Fan?

gunsnewing wrote:Exactly in less than 2yrs we can start over and hopefully get it right this time despite the owner

Oft injured Kevin Love is waiting...nobody who wants to win is coming to a team with nothing but cap space.