simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

3G4G wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:You didn't read the article, did you? Wade has shot 50% with Lebron on the bench and his entire career average is 49.

CAREER SEASON AVERAGES

Year Team G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
03-04 MIA 61 56 34.9 0.465 0.302 0.747 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.6 3.21 2.30 16.2
04-05 MIA 77 77 38.6 0.478 0.289 0.762 1.4 3.7 5.2 6.8 1.6 1.1 4.17 2.99 24.1
05-06 MIA 75 75 38.6 0.495 0.171 0.783 1.4 4.3 5.7 6.7 2.0 0.8 3.57 2.89 27.2
06-07 MIA 51 50 37.9 0.491 0.266 0.807 1.0 3.7 4.7 7.5 2.1 1.2 4.24 2.29 27.4
07-08 MIA 51 49 38.3 0.469 0.286 0.758 0.9 3.3 4.2 6.9 1.7 0.7 4.39 2.69 24.6
08-09 MIA 79 79 38.6 0.491 0.317 0.765 1.1 3.9 5.0 7.5 2.2 1.3 3.44 2.25 30.2
09-10 MIA 77 77 36.3 0.476 0.300 0.761 1.4 3.5 4.8 6.5 1.8 1.1 3.27 2.35 26.6
10-11 MIA 76 76 37.1 0.500 0.306 0.758 1.6 4.8 6.4 4.6 1.5 1.1 3.12 2.59 25.5
11-12 MIA 49 49 33.2 0.497 0.268 0.791 1.5 3.3 4.8 4.6 1.7 1.3 2.63 2.24 22.1
12-13 MIA 68 68 34.8 0.519 0.258 0.731 1.2 3.8 5.0 5.0 1.9 0.8 2.82 2.06 21.2
Career -- 664 656 37.0 0.489 0.289 0.767 1.3 3.7 5.1 6.1 1.8 1.0 3.47 2.48 24.7
All-Star -- 9 8 26.6 0.632 0.231 0.696 1.8 2.2 4.0 5.0 2.6 0.6 2.89 2.22 18.1

Look at his FG% in the years w/out Shaq/BronBosh and with them. Clearly goes up and down in correlation with that. Aside from the fact that he is a a career 0.489 not .5 which is a big difference both statistically and in terms of visual argument when you compare .45 and .5 vs .45 and .489.

Who said he shot .5 for career? Even if so .489 is eerily close to .5

Bonn clearly stated .49 which is correct. In 2003-2004 he was rookie shot 46%,(are you implying he should have shot better as a rookie?). Following yr improving player 48%(first year with Shaq), played with Shaq 4 seasons(2004-2008).... in one of those seasons he shot 47% but he wasn't healthy as he only played in 51gms. Next yr(2008-2009) without Shaq, No Lebron, No Bosh, he shot 49%(his best season BTW when he won the Scoring Title)

This is why it's been a brutal yr posting here....Facts are ignored and generally by a particular breed of posters.

I could not care any less about the homers vs. sombers or whatever it is these days. You are the one who finishes every post referring to it. I have not even posted much the past year or two. Yet you are putting me into a camp. Just argue the point, who cares about these forum fractions etc. Its guys like you who have to put everything into an us vs. them frame work that make the forum work in the way that you yourself proclaim not to like.

My point is that any player's FG and tFG are greatly affected by who he plays with. Wade in his prime may very well have been a better player then Melo to date and his FG% was higher. That has nothing to do with the fact that Melo's FG% would be higher if he played with the same level of talent that Wade has played with. Not higher than Wade's probably, but higher than 45 and with a lot less variance.

You're making a claim that can't be tested. All that can be said is that scoring efficiency is remarkably stable even when players change teams. Basically, there's no evidence presently for the claim that putting someone on a better team makes them a more efficient scorer

If the claim that someone's FG% improves on a better team can't be tested, then how can you claim that the opposite is true? You should not be able to test then. You are contradicting yourself. I'm pretty sure you could come up with criteria and back test it if you wanted to. Its an effort but it can be done. It also actually makes sense which is always a good start for a theory.

carmelo himself said this was the best team he has ever played with.... so why not the increase in efficiency?

The claim that a players FG% improves on better teams can be tested, has been tested, and has been discredited.
The claim specifically that Melo would currently be more efficient if playing with another superstar scorer cannot be tested, since there is only one reality.

Please show me a study that "discredits" the hypothesis of putting a player on a better (lets define this more specifically by the way) team improving FG% (btw I agree tFG% is way better to work with). By better team I mean a team that puts the player in the best scoring opportunities for his skill set.

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

3G4G wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:You didn't read the article, did you? Wade has shot 50% with Lebron on the bench and his entire career average is 49.

CAREER SEASON AVERAGES

Year Team G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
03-04 MIA 61 56 34.9 0.465 0.302 0.747 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.6 3.21 2.30 16.2
04-05 MIA 77 77 38.6 0.478 0.289 0.762 1.4 3.7 5.2 6.8 1.6 1.1 4.17 2.99 24.1
05-06 MIA 75 75 38.6 0.495 0.171 0.783 1.4 4.3 5.7 6.7 2.0 0.8 3.57 2.89 27.2
06-07 MIA 51 50 37.9 0.491 0.266 0.807 1.0 3.7 4.7 7.5 2.1 1.2 4.24 2.29 27.4
07-08 MIA 51 49 38.3 0.469 0.286 0.758 0.9 3.3 4.2 6.9 1.7 0.7 4.39 2.69 24.6
08-09 MIA 79 79 38.6 0.491 0.317 0.765 1.1 3.9 5.0 7.5 2.2 1.3 3.44 2.25 30.2
09-10 MIA 77 77 36.3 0.476 0.300 0.761 1.4 3.5 4.8 6.5 1.8 1.1 3.27 2.35 26.6
10-11 MIA 76 76 37.1 0.500 0.306 0.758 1.6 4.8 6.4 4.6 1.5 1.1 3.12 2.59 25.5
11-12 MIA 49 49 33.2 0.497 0.268 0.791 1.5 3.3 4.8 4.6 1.7 1.3 2.63 2.24 22.1
12-13 MIA 68 68 34.8 0.519 0.258 0.731 1.2 3.8 5.0 5.0 1.9 0.8 2.82 2.06 21.2
Career -- 664 656 37.0 0.489 0.289 0.767 1.3 3.7 5.1 6.1 1.8 1.0 3.47 2.48 24.7
All-Star -- 9 8 26.6 0.632 0.231 0.696 1.8 2.2 4.0 5.0 2.6 0.6 2.89 2.22 18.1

Look at his FG% in the years w/out Shaq/BronBosh and with them. Clearly goes up and down in correlation with that. Aside from the fact that he is a a career 0.489 not .5 which is a big difference both statistically and in terms of visual argument when you compare .45 and .5 vs .45 and .489.

Who said he shot .5 for career? Even if so .489 is eerily close to .5

Bonn clearly stated .49 which is correct. In 2003-2004 he was rookie shot 46%,(are you implying he should have shot better as a rookie?). Following yr improving player 48%(first year with Shaq), played with Shaq 4 seasons(2004-2008).... in one of those seasons he shot 47% but he wasn't healthy as he only played in 51gms. Next yr(2008-2009) without Shaq, No Lebron, No Bosh, he shot 49%(his best season BTW when he won the Scoring Title)

This is why it's been a brutal yr posting here....Facts are ignored and generally by a particular breed of posters.

I could not care any less about the homers vs. sombers or whatever it is these days. You are the one who finishes every post referring to it. I have not even posted much the past year or two. Yet you are putting me into a camp. Just argue the point, who cares about these forum fractions etc. Its guys like you who have to put everything into an us vs. them frame work that make the forum work in the way that you yourself proclaim not to like.

My point is that any player's FG and tFG are greatly affected by who he plays with. Wade in his prime may very well have been a better player then Melo to date and his FG% was higher. That has nothing to do with the fact that Melo's FG% would be higher if he played with the same level of talent that Wade has played with. Not higher than Wade's probably, but higher than 45 and with a lot less variance.

You're making a claim that can't be tested. All that can be said is that scoring efficiency is remarkably stable even when players change teams. Basically, there's no evidence presently for the claim that putting someone on a better team makes them a more efficient scorer

If the claim that someone's FG% improves on a better team can't be tested, then how can you claim that the opposite is true? You should not be able to test then. You are contradicting yourself. I'm pretty sure you could come up with criteria and back test it if you wanted to. Its an effort but it can be done. It also actually makes sense which is always a good start for a theory.

The claim that a players FG% improves on better teams can be tested, has been tested, and has been discredited.
The claim specifically that Melo would currently be more efficient if playing with another superstar scorer cannot be tested, since there is only one reality.

Please show me a study that "discredits" the hypothesis of putting a player on a better (lets define this more specifically by the way) team improving FG% (btw I agree tFG% is way better to work with). By better team I mean a team that puts the player in the best scoring opportunities for his skill set.

Berri's books would be a good start.

I will check the book out at some point (hopefully its on kindle) but could you at least summarize a study from it?

rkb wrote:This whole efficiency argument is BS. If you're on my team I don't want you holding on to the damn ball to protect your individual field goal %. If you think about it, it's selfish. Raymond and Kidd both threw up amazing half court shots and hit them this year. In turn this ignited the team, infused the arena with energy, demoralized the opponent and furthermore extended on a lead towards important victories. Were they low % shots or did they need to be taken? The answer is that both were low % shots that needed to be taken. Everyone in the league does not get calls like Lebron, Wade and Harden. Lebron and Wade are haters on the low (remember how they acted about dirk in the finals 2 years ago?) and definitely keeping an eye out for Melo. They know this Knicks team is for real no matter what the pundits or analysts say. Keep your fg%! I'd rather have melo bulldozing his way to the hole and trying to make things happen for this team. I've seen plenty of times where Melo has gone to the hole aggressively and been fouled but not gotten the call and kept fighting until he got the bucket. He might have missed three layups in the process of that one posession but eventually converts the basket. Does that make him inefficient? Not in my book. This is one stat that you have to take with a grain of salt unless you watch the game. Your fg% could go downhill on one offensive posession( see the q-richardson and earl barron shot attempt last night). I like having guys on my team that try every possible way to make their team win no matter how it looks in the box score. We have guys on this team that adhere to those principles. You can bet that at least 1 to 2 of Rays shots in every game are from half court or 3/4 court with under 3 seconds to shoot. It negatively impacts his fg% but as I said earlier it helps the team more than just holding onto the ball.

"If you're on my team I don't want you holding on to the damn ball to protect your individual field goal %." this is a false statement. players who are efficient are predisposed to moving the ball with the aim of finding the open man with the highest percentage shot, often meaning that the ball swings back to him for a better look because as the ball moves crisply it tends to get ahead of the defensive rotation. hence your second statement is absurd: "If you think about it, it's selfish. "

you then follow with examples that are exceptions not the rule. half-court shots are 3-pointers made at the end of periods. by the time the teams are ready to resume do you honestly contend that the uplift on one side and demoralization on the other has perpetuated itself?

then you claim that melo's taking shots off misses at the rim are the reason for his low efficiency. again this is nonsense. the low efficiency is based on the taking of bad shots, not necessary shots... the shots off offensive rebounds are necessary shots but what about all the other shots that are rushed, heat checks, over two defenders?

everybody loves when players play hard and smart. melo has never in his career really done both enough to help aid success on his teams. this year he has shown genuine signs of playing hard on offense and smart on offense. defense is still an issue.

yellowboy90 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

rkb wrote:This whole efficiency argument is BS. If you're on my team I don't want you holding on to the damn ball to protect your individual field goal %. If you think about it, it's selfish. Raymond and Kidd both threw up amazing half court shots and hit them this year. In turn this ignited the team, infused the arena with energy, demoralized the opponent and furthermore extended on a lead towards important victories. Were they low % shots or did they need to be taken? The answer is that both were low % shots that needed to be taken. Everyone in the league does not get calls like Lebron, Wade and Harden. Lebron and Wade are haters on the low (remember how they acted about dirk in the finals 2 years ago?) and definitely keeping an eye out for Melo. They know this Knicks team is for real no matter what the pundits or analysts say. Keep your fg%! I'd rather have melo bulldozing his way to the hole and trying to make things happen for this team. I've seen plenty of times where Melo has gone to the hole aggressively and been fouled but not gotten the call and kept fighting until he got the bucket. He might have missed three layups in the process of that one posession but eventually converts the basket. Does that make him inefficient? Not in my book. This is one stat that you have to take with a grain of salt unless you watch the game. Your fg% could go downhill on one offensive posession( see the q-richardson and earl barron shot attempt last night). I like having guys on my team that try every possible way to make their team win no matter how it looks in the box score. We have guys on this team that adhere to those principles. You can bet that at least 1 to 2 of Rays shots in every game are from half court or 3/4 court with under 3 seconds to shoot. It negatively impacts his fg% but as I said earlier it helps the team more than just holding onto the ball.

"If you're on my team I don't want you holding on to the damn ball to protect your individual field goal %." this is a false statement. players who are efficient are predisposed to moving the ball with the aim of finding the open man with the highest percentage shot, often meaning that the ball swings back to him for a better look because as the ball moves crisply it tends to get ahead of the defensive rotation. hence your second statement is absurd: "If you think about it, it's selfish. "

you then follow with examples that are exceptions not the rule. half-court shots are 3-pointers made at the end of periods. by the time the teams are ready to resume do you honestly contend that the uplift on one side and demoralization on the other has perpetuated itself?

then you claim that melo's taking shots off misses at the rim are the reason for his low efficiency. again this is nonsense. the low efficiency is based on the taking of bad shots, not necessary shots... the shots off offensive rebounds are necessary shots but what about all the other shots that are rushed, heat checks, over two defenders?

everybody loves when players play hard and smart. melo has never in his career really done both enough to help aid success on his teams. this year he has shown genuine signs of playing hard on offense and smart on offense. defense is still an issue.

This is alot of conjecture on your part. Predisposed really. Unless you can track and calculate this please stop it. Some players may pass up poor shots to find better shots but some players may pass up shots and leave their teammates holding the bag. Then again what is a bad shot/ Is it bad for a 28 percent guy to try a three or would it be better for him to pass it to his teammate for a 2 who shoots 42% from that spot? Which is the more efficient shot?

Also, if a player is worried about not taking last second shots at the end of qtrs to protect there game something is wrong with that. Ask Scott Brooks.

Also, I quoted a poster who did account for Melo avg a putbacks every other game and his TS% rose form .561 to .574.
Then you have the FTs. Now teams always argue about an unfair whistle but my eye test says Melo gets hacked a lot. On another site a poster pointed out that "Melo takes 6.2 shots per game at the rim, Durant 4.4

Durant has a ft rate of 53%. Melo: 36%

Durant has a much higher percentage of uncontested shots at the rim in transition."

Now here is the thing do I think Melo is a better player than Durant. No but its not a big gap considering some things.

Here is another thing, with SPortsVU cameras teams have the opportunity and ability to factor in put backs,fouls should have been call, and many other things to see if a player is efficient or not. They do not have to just rely on this box score advance stats.

conjecture would be based on a lack of empirical and statistical evidence. i have both.

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

simrud wrote:

3G4G wrote:

simrud wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:You didn't read the article, did you? Wade has shot 50% with Lebron on the bench and his entire career average is 49.

CAREER SEASON AVERAGES

Year Team G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
03-04 MIA 61 56 34.9 0.465 0.302 0.747 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.6 3.21 2.30 16.2
04-05 MIA 77 77 38.6 0.478 0.289 0.762 1.4 3.7 5.2 6.8 1.6 1.1 4.17 2.99 24.1
05-06 MIA 75 75 38.6 0.495 0.171 0.783 1.4 4.3 5.7 6.7 2.0 0.8 3.57 2.89 27.2
06-07 MIA 51 50 37.9 0.491 0.266 0.807 1.0 3.7 4.7 7.5 2.1 1.2 4.24 2.29 27.4
07-08 MIA 51 49 38.3 0.469 0.286 0.758 0.9 3.3 4.2 6.9 1.7 0.7 4.39 2.69 24.6
08-09 MIA 79 79 38.6 0.491 0.317 0.765 1.1 3.9 5.0 7.5 2.2 1.3 3.44 2.25 30.2
09-10 MIA 77 77 36.3 0.476 0.300 0.761 1.4 3.5 4.8 6.5 1.8 1.1 3.27 2.35 26.6
10-11 MIA 76 76 37.1 0.500 0.306 0.758 1.6 4.8 6.4 4.6 1.5 1.1 3.12 2.59 25.5
11-12 MIA 49 49 33.2 0.497 0.268 0.791 1.5 3.3 4.8 4.6 1.7 1.3 2.63 2.24 22.1
12-13 MIA 68 68 34.8 0.519 0.258 0.731 1.2 3.8 5.0 5.0 1.9 0.8 2.82 2.06 21.2
Career -- 664 656 37.0 0.489 0.289 0.767 1.3 3.7 5.1 6.1 1.8 1.0 3.47 2.48 24.7
All-Star -- 9 8 26.6 0.632 0.231 0.696 1.8 2.2 4.0 5.0 2.6 0.6 2.89 2.22 18.1

Look at his FG% in the years w/out Shaq/BronBosh and with them. Clearly goes up and down in correlation with that. Aside from the fact that he is a a career 0.489 not .5 which is a big difference both statistically and in terms of visual argument when you compare .45 and .5 vs .45 and .489.

Who said he shot .5 for career? Even if so .489 is eerily close to .5

Bonn clearly stated .49 which is correct. In 2003-2004 he was rookie shot 46%,(are you implying he should have shot better as a rookie?). Following yr improving player 48%(first year with Shaq), played with Shaq 4 seasons(2004-2008).... in one of those seasons he shot 47% but he wasn't healthy as he only played in 51gms. Next yr(2008-2009) without Shaq, No Lebron, No Bosh, he shot 49%(his best season BTW when he won the Scoring Title)

This is why it's been a brutal yr posting here....Facts are ignored and generally by a particular breed of posters.

I could not care any less about the homers vs. sombers or whatever it is these days. You are the one who finishes every post referring to it. I have not even posted much the past year or two. Yet you are putting me into a camp. Just argue the point, who cares about these forum fractions etc. Its guys like you who have to put everything into an us vs. them frame work that make the forum work in the way that you yourself proclaim not to like.

My point is that any player's FG and tFG are greatly affected by who he plays with. Wade in his prime may very well have been a better player then Melo to date and his FG% was higher. That has nothing to do with the fact that Melo's FG% would be higher if he played with the same level of talent that Wade has played with. Not higher than Wade's probably, but higher than 45 and with a lot less variance.

You're making a claim that can't be tested. All that can be said is that scoring efficiency is remarkably stable even when players change teams. Basically, there's no evidence presently for the claim that putting someone on a better team makes them a more efficient scorer

If the claim that someone's FG% improves on a better team can't be tested, then how can you claim that the opposite is true? You should not be able to test then. You are contradicting yourself. I'm pretty sure you could come up with criteria and back test it if you wanted to. Its an effort but it can be done. It also actually makes sense which is always a good start for a theory.

The claim that a players FG% improves on better teams can be tested, has been tested, and has been discredited.
The claim specifically that Melo would currently be more efficient if playing with another superstar scorer cannot be tested, since there is only one reality.

Please show me a study that "discredits" the hypothesis of putting a player on a better (lets define this more specifically by the way) team improving FG% (btw I agree tFG% is way better to work with). By better team I mean a team that puts the player in the best scoring opportunities for his skill set.

Berri's books would be a good start.

I will check the book out at some point (hopefully its on kindle) but could you at least summarize a study from it?