dk7th wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

FoeDiddy wrote:Harden is no Melo. Him disappearing last year in finals as 3rd option says a lot. No post game like Melo, doesnt' rebound like melo and doesn't defend like the New Melo.

as opposed to Melo's .390 post-season FG% for us?

Hey Bonn what is Melos FG% or TS% in critical and clutch situations compared to the rest of the league? When the team absolutly needs a bucket?

i don't know about critical or clutch situations but for his career his regular season FG% is an entirely mediocre 45.6 and goes down to a pathetic 41.9 in the playoffs.

in terms of TS% in the regular season it is an entirely mediocre 54.4 (this is his TS% so far this season BTW) and plummets to an awful 51.8 in the playoffs.

these numbers imply that he does not rise to the occasion overall and that if teams do in fact plan for him that his losing playoff history show that he doesn't have the ability to adjust, that he's basically a one-trick pony.

the question is will his defense and hustle plays turn him into a true positive-sum player come the second round of the playoffs?

82games.com has clutch stats. looking at his best season in 08-09 (note no TS% which would include getting to the line):

SHOT ATT eFG ASS BLK NET
Jumpers 71% .300 50% 10% 0.9
Close 21% .667 0% 0% 0.6
Dunk 7% 1.000 0% 0% 0.3
Tips 0% .000 0% 0% 0.0
Inside 29% .750 0% 0% 0.9

these stats don't actually state whether the team is ahead by 5 or behind by 5.

for comparison, if you look at pierce the year garnett was out (08-09), he averages 2.6 net on jumpers and .8 close in. i use this season because without garnett you can be sure that the celtics were fighting from behind more often than not.

pierce 2.6 and .8 in 08-09 the year garnett was out and you presume the celtics will be trailing more often than not
bryant 2.6 and .4 in 08-09 against the inferior magic squad
bryant 1.5 and .6 in 07-08 against the superior celtic squad
wade 1.6 and .6 in 05-06 which was the ref gifting series so he had help
melo 0.9 and .6 in 08-09 which was his most successful playoff season

melo is well off the pace of his so-called peers.

Intersting,

At the same time Wade is 4-16 in the playoffs after he lost Shaq and before he got with Lebron. After the east got stronger and Pierce lost Walker for a 3yr spand he went 3-8 in the playoffs while missing it entirely one of the those yrs before they got Garnett. Bryants 3yr span after he lost Shaq he missed the playoffs then went 4-8 the 2 yrs he did go.

Melo's last 2 playoff yrs in Denver when he got Billups

He averaged 29pts, 456fg%, 840ft%, 9.1ftattempts, 340/3pt%, 7rebs, 3.8ast, 1.8stls, 2.6to

His last yr in the playoffs for Denver
30.7pts, 464fg%, 877ft%, 9.5 ftattempts, 316 3pt%, 8.5rebs, 4ast, 2stls, 3.5tos

According to you guys own stat logic Melo was great in the playoffs his last 2 yrs in Denver. And other then fg% was incredible in the plaoffs vs Boston. Vs Miami we were overmatched and they had the best collections of swamming athletes in the NBA. In comparison Durant who is better then Anthony with WAY more help last playoffs while more effiecient in shooting I believe lost out to Anthony in every other statistical category when facing Miami in the finals while also winning the same amount of games that Anhthony did vs the champs.

Uptown wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

ShellTopAdidas wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

ShellTopAdidas wrote:This is NOT the Melo we traded for. If This new Melo played like this for George Karl, they probably would of won a few championships and would have never been traded. Melo JUST starting to realise he doesn't know it all and Melo ball is only going to get u an all star invite and nothing else. Glad to see he's growing up. It's about time.

Is melo really playing so much better or is the team around him playing team ball with him included?
And a deep bench?
And a strong team resolve?

No doubt he is having a grand time and is healthy.

In this instance, this point in the season "On paper" is not as good as "on the court"!

Lots of games left. Enjoy!

His defense is better but otherwise he's still a .440 shooter with a 1 to 1 assist turnover ratio. It's mostly the team around him doing better.

The ball isn't stopping at him like in years past. He doesn't have to have a high asst avg, just get others involved!!!! That's what EVERY SINGLE COACH BEEN TRYING TO TELL HIM, but it hasn't been until NOW that its sinking in.

Is that the case or is there just a changed perception of him because the team is doing better? I doubt anyone has recorded the data, but I'd be surprised if he actually was spending less time with the ball in his hands now (less ball stopping) than in previous seasons.

Pretty much. I highly doubt any of us tracked every single Nugget game that Melo played in....So to say he's never played like this in his career (after 4 games mind you) i'm sure is inaccurate...

Bonn1997 wrote:

Uptown wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

ShellTopAdidas wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

ShellTopAdidas wrote:This is NOT the Melo we traded for. If This new Melo played like this for George Karl, they probably would of won a few championships and would have never been traded. Melo JUST starting to realise he doesn't know it all and Melo ball is only going to get u an all star invite and nothing else. Glad to see he's growing up. It's about time.

Is melo really playing so much better or is the team around him playing team ball with him included?
And a deep bench?
And a strong team resolve?

No doubt he is having a grand time and is healthy.

In this instance, this point in the season "On paper" is not as good as "on the court"!

Lots of games left. Enjoy!

His defense is better but otherwise he's still a .440 shooter with a 1 to 1 assist turnover ratio. It's mostly the team around him doing better.

The ball isn't stopping at him like in years past. He doesn't have to have a high asst avg, just get others involved!!!! That's what EVERY SINGLE COACH BEEN TRYING TO TELL HIM, but it hasn't been until NOW that its sinking in.

Is that the case or is there just a changed perception of him because the team is doing better? I doubt anyone has recorded the data, but I'd be surprised if he actually was spending less time with the ball in his hands now (less ball stopping) than in previous seasons.

Pretty much. I highly doubt any of us tracked every single Nugget game that Melo played in....So to say he's never played like this in his career (after 4 games mind you) i'm sure is inaccurate...

Oh wow - we're actually on the same page. I saw Uptown replying to me and immediately assumed he'd be criticizing my view and then I'd have to criticize him and we'd get nowhere!

Bonn1997 wrote:This team is very well-designed. I think Grunwald will have a good shot at GM of the year. You get about 40 shots a game at a very efficient rate from our role players (Tyson, Brewer, Novak, Kidd so far) and then Melo and Smith fill in the remaining shots at a decent rate. I do think there's some value to shot creation even though it currently isn't incorporated into the sabermetrics (or APBRmetrics). The JR/Melo combo plus the other efficient players work well together - being able to get 40 shots at a decent rate from two players allows the other players to take fewer shots and hit at a high rate, while the others hitting at a high rate allow you to get away with a mediocre rate from Melo/JR. If we had a high volume, more efficient shooter instead of Melo (Harden, Durant, Lebron, Wade, Pierce, Dirk if healthy, Irving), we'd be in better shape but I think if you replaced Melo with another efficient low volume scorer, we'd be in worse shape.

Everyone has clear roles which fit there skill set and compliment each other at the moment. The ony question mark is when Amare comes back how his game fits in. Though he can clearly be a strong 2nd option with a 2nd unit allowing Smith to slide to 3rd option. Then you look at Felton, Shumpert, Tyson, Kidd, Brewer as 4-8 options and they may be the 3rd best in the NBA in terms of thats. Smith, Felton, Shumpert, Tyson as 3-6 option is strong.

Another thing that is Shumperts improvement will be critical for the starting unit. If he can be an effective scoring threat at the 2 guard then he would take a lot of pressure off of Melo with the starting unit.

I'm waiting to see Harden do this against a top defense.

knickscity wrote:I don't see how Harden can be compared to Melo right now, it isn't close at all....

I'm waiting to see Harden do this against a top defense.

LOL... my lord..... harden is a beast man.... he was a beast vs the spurs last year... he was a beast all of last year... the guy is a BEAST.. he is as good a scorer as carmelo is, and is 10x the passer and playmaker.. just stop it bro....

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

dk7th wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

FoeDiddy wrote:Harden is no Melo. Him disappearing last year in finals as 3rd option says a lot. No post game like Melo, doesnt' rebound like melo and doesn't defend like the New Melo.

as opposed to Melo's .390 post-season FG% for us?

Hey Bonn what is Melos FG% or TS% in critical and clutch situations compared to the rest of the league? When the team absolutly needs a bucket?

i don't know about critical or clutch situations but for his career his regular season FG% is an entirely mediocre 45.6 and goes down to a pathetic 41.9 in the playoffs.

in terms of TS% in the regular season it is an entirely mediocre 54.4 (this is his TS% so far this season BTW) and plummets to an awful 51.8 in the playoffs.

these numbers imply that he does not rise to the occasion overall and that if teams do in fact plan for him that his losing playoff history show that he doesn't have the ability to adjust, that he's basically a one-trick pony.

the question is will his defense and hustle plays turn him into a true positive-sum player come the second round of the playoffs?

82games.com has clutch stats. looking at his best season in 08-09 (note no TS% which would include getting to the line):

SHOT ATT eFG ASS BLK NET
Jumpers 71% .300 50% 10% 0.9
Close 21% .667 0% 0% 0.6
Dunk 7% 1.000 0% 0% 0.3
Tips 0% .000 0% 0% 0.0
Inside 29% .750 0% 0% 0.9

these stats don't actually state whether the team is ahead by 5 or behind by 5.

for comparison, if you look at pierce the year garnett was out (08-09), he averages 2.6 net on jumpers and .8 close in. i use this season because without garnett you can be sure that the celtics were fighting from behind more often than not.

pierce 2.6 and .8 in 08-09 the year garnett was out and you presume the celtics will be trailing more often than not
bryant 2.6 and .4 in 08-09 against the inferior magic squad
bryant 1.5 and .6 in 07-08 against the superior celtic squad
wade 1.6 and .6 in 05-06 which was the ref gifting series so he had help
melo 0.9 and .6 in 08-09 which was his most successful playoff season

melo is well off the pace of his so-called peers.

Intersting,

At the same time Wade is 4-16 in the playoffs after he lost Shaq and before he got with Lebron. After the east got stronger and Pierce lost Walker for a 3yr spand he went 3-8 in the playoffs while missing it entirely one of the those yrs before they got Garnett. Bryants 3yr span after he lost Shaq he missed the playoffs then went 4-8 the 2 yrs he did go.

Melo's last 2 playoff yrs in Denver when he got Billups

He averaged 29pts, 456fg%, 840ft%, 9.1ftattempts, 340/3pt%, 7rebs, 3.8ast, 1.8stls, 2.6to

His last yr in the playoffs for Denver
30.7pts, 464fg%, 877ft%, 9.5 ftattempts, 316 3pt%, 8.5rebs, 4ast, 2stls, 3.5tos

According to you guys own stat logic Melo was great in the playoffs his last 2 yrs in Denver. And other then fg% was incredible in the plaoffs vs Boston. Vs Miami we were overmatched and they had the best collections of swamming athletes in the NBA. In comparison Durant who is better then Anthony with WAY more help last playoffs while more effiecient in shooting I believe lost out to Anthony in every other statistical category when facing Miami in the finals while also winning the same amount of games that Anhthony did vs the champs.

You really can't analyze scoring efficiency in a sample of fewer than 1000 shots. If you look at each individual post-season, you're going to have wildly inconsistent data.

Quick question Bonn, based on the stats for his last yr in Denver which he lost in the first rd. Do you believe he lost that series because he was inefficient?

Bonn1997 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

ShellTopAdidas wrote:This is NOT the Melo we traded for. If This new Melo played like this for George Karl, they probably would of won a few championships and would have never been traded. Melo JUST starting to realise he doesn't know it all and Melo ball is only going to get u an all star invite and nothing else. Glad to see he's growing up. It's about time.

Is melo really playing so much better or is the team around him playing team ball with him included?
And a deep bench?
And a strong team resolve?

No doubt he is having a grand time and is healthy.

In this instance, this point in the season "On paper" is not as good as "on the court"!

Lots of games left. Enjoy!

His defense is better but otherwise he's still a .440 shooter with a 1 to 1 assist turnover ratio. It's mostly the team around him doing better.

partly true, but here is where numbers DO lie.

He is averaging 1.5 assists so far. Last season he averaged 3.6. He is averaging 21.0 shots a game and last year it was 18.6.

On paper, does it not look like he is playing a lot worse and far more selfish? Why is everyone saying that he is playing more "team ball"? The numbers are stating that this is not the case.

Its important to actually watch the game sometimes to understand what is happening.

When he moves the ball quickly out of a double team and the the ball swings to an open man and they score, where does that show up on the stat sheet?

Also, I see with Melo that around the basket, he puts up shots just to get his own rebound. This hurts his FG% but often ends up in a score. I am curious how many of his misses he actually ends up scoring on and where he ranks in the league at this. This has a flip side too and will reduce the value of some of his rebounds.

There are few in the league who are as good as Melo at getting his own rebound.

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

ShellTopAdidas wrote:This is NOT the Melo we traded for. If This new Melo played like this for George Karl, they probably would of won a few championships and would have never been traded. Melo JUST starting to realise he doesn't know it all and Melo ball is only going to get u an all star invite and nothing else. Glad to see he's growing up. It's about time.

Is melo really playing so much better or is the team around him playing team ball with him included?
And a deep bench?
And a strong team resolve?

No doubt he is having a grand time and is healthy.

In this instance, this point in the season "On paper" is not as good as "on the court"!

Lots of games left. Enjoy!

His defense is better but otherwise he's still a .440 shooter with a 1 to 1 assist turnover ratio. It's mostly the team around him doing better.

partly true, but here is where numbers DO lie.

He is averaging 1.5 assists so far. Last season he averaged 3.6. He is averaging 21.0 shots a game and last year it was 18.6.

On paper, does it not look like he is playing a lot worse and far more selfish? Why is everyone saying that he is playing more "team ball"? The numbers are stating that this is not the case.

Its important to actually watch the game sometimes to understand what is happening.

When he moves the ball quickly out of a double team and the the ball swings to an open man and they score, where does that show up on the stat sheet?

Also, I see with Melo that around the basket, he puts up shots just to get his own rebound. This hurts his FG% but often ends up in a score. I am curious how many of his misses he actually ends up scoring on and where he ranks in the league at this. This has a flip side too and will reduce the value of some of his rebounds.

There are few in the league who are as good as Melo at getting his own rebound.