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Up by 3, to foul or not to foul?
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JCrusher
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3/5/2012  6:29 PM
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:here's link:

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/knicksblog/knicks_aantoni_defends_decision_dQeoSgj8rj8SMbZM7U5l5L?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Knicks%20Blog

MDA confirms his own stupidity here:

"With 10 seconds to go you have a helluva chance to win. You ask most players, they don’t want to foul. Because you don’t want to be that guy to have to go down (the other end) and make those two foul shots.''

as in, you don't want to be the guy that then gets fouled and has to go to the line up by 1. isn't that the implicit argument in fouling a guy like rondo? you put him on the line down 3 knowing he has to make both to keep the game alive. so the reason as to why you don't foul (because it puts pressure on the player shooting the subsequent free throws) is used as a reason to justify why you don't foul, even though the result (the pressure on the player to make the free throws) remains.

you forgot to post what came exactly before the quote:

According to D'Antoni, he said the stat service the Knicks use confirms his belief and he said most coaches agree with him. D'Antoni said the service has tracked games since 1995 and teams who don't foul with 10 seconds left or less and up three, win roughly 93 percent of the games.

Teams who do foul in the same circumstance win 90 percent of the games. D'Antoni said players also prefer to play straight-up defense and not worry about fouling intentionally to extend the game.

and just after:

"The philosophy is not to foul but you say that with an asterisk,'' D'Antoni said. "Down below 5 seconds and they’re in the 2-point (range) and you can get a good shot at somebody, you do it. But Paul Pierce has the ball and he’s like this (in shooting motion). You can’t foul him. Because he’ll go up. He’s smart enough.

"Now do you foul him with 10 seconds and you just do everything we just did. If you get it down to eight seconds, maybe. They make theirs (free throws). They foul you immediately. Seven seconds left. You miss one foul shot. They’re coming at you and you’re defending the two.'

Martin, if the software is marginally right 93 pct win vs 90, don't you think that there is credence to the argument of - Depends Who You Are Playing? You can't always follow the statistical model ... Thats why we have a coach - to make real time judgement calls and possibly overrule the Super Comp.

I don't think you let players like KD or PP beat you.

I think MDA just said what you did. BTW, the players are on the court, right? They have to step up.

Agreed. last i checked mike d'antoni wasn't playing lol. Pierece was well covered he just made a difficult shot
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mrKnickShot
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3/5/2012  6:31 PM
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

martin
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3/5/2012  6:36 PM
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

what exactly would you have done if you were coach? Specifically, detail it out.

15-18 seconds on clock don't foul? 10-15 start to think about foul? < 10 seconds foul in 3 point land but not Pierce or Allen? Oh, and don't get clipped by KG on the pick cause he is DEFINITELY gonna move his screen.

Is that what MDA should be instructing? These aren't robots out there.

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MarburyAnd1Crossover
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3/5/2012  6:38 PM
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

That's true...because the other way, by fouling and absorbing two free throws, you get the ball at the foul line with small time. It's a situation where you control the end of the game, deny control to other team.

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loweyecue
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3/5/2012  6:43 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
NYKBocker wrote:
Nalod wrote:Up by three and scared of a team tying with 18 seconds? No, I don't think you foul.

Maybe the morning after you do. AFTER the fact. We had 4.9 left to win.

I agree. Pierce took a 25 foot shot fading away to his right. Pierce just made a great shot.


There are risks to all of the possible strategies. A 25' fade away by Pierce with a hand in his face is a shot that Pierce probably will make 10 to 15% of the time. I don't think any other strategy has better odds than that.

YUP

TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!
mrKnickShot
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3/5/2012  6:44 PM
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

what exactly would you have done if you were coach? Specifically, detail it out.

15-18 seconds on clock don't foul? 10-15 start to think about foul? < 10 seconds foul in 3 point land but not Pierce or Allen? Oh, and don't get clipped by KG on the pick cause he is DEFINITELY gonna move his screen.

Is that what MDA should be instructing? These aren't robots out there.

I would have pressured Rondo up the court and fouled him as soon as soon as I could (around or before half court), I would have trapped the pick instead of switching and fouled Pierce before he can turn.

Mainly, I would have told my players to press Rondo and foul him right before or at mid-court.

You can't tell me that you did not think that shot would be good as soon as he shot it - c'mon! I hate him and I hate seeing him continuously beat us

I don't remember the team (I think it was StanVG) did this twice withing 20 seconds and it worked for him.

I am not saying to always do this but Allen and Pierce cannot both be double teamed so they are gonna find a way to get a good look and always seem to.
martin
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3/5/2012  6:46 PM
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

what exactly would you have done if you were coach? Specifically, detail it out.

15-18 seconds on clock don't foul? 10-15 start to think about foul? < 10 seconds foul in 3 point land but not Pierce or Allen? Oh, and don't get clipped by KG on the pick cause he is DEFINITELY gonna move his screen.

Is that what MDA should be instructing? These aren't robots out there.

I would have pressured Rondo up the court and fouled him as soon as soon as I could (around or before half court), I would have trapped the pick instead of switching and fouled Pierce before he can turn.

Mainly, I would have told my players to press Rondo and foul him right before or at mid-court.

You can't tell me that you did not think that shot would be good as soon as he shot it - c'mon! I hate him and I hate seeing him continuously beat us

I don't remember the team (I think it was StanVG) did this twice withing 20 seconds and it worked for him.

I am not saying to always do this but Allen and Pierce cannot both be double teamed so they are gonna find a way to get a good look and always seem to.

you are coaching in hind sight.

Up 3 you would start your defense at half court... and watch Rondo, one of the fastest, trickiest dudes with the ball blow past you and create an open slot for someone.

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mrKnickShot
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3/5/2012  7:11 PM
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

what exactly would you have done if you were coach? Specifically, detail it out.

15-18 seconds on clock don't foul? 10-15 start to think about foul? < 10 seconds foul in 3 point land but not Pierce or Allen? Oh, and don't get clipped by KG on the pick cause he is DEFINITELY gonna move his screen.

Is that what MDA should be instructing? These aren't robots out there.

I would have pressured Rondo up the court and fouled him as soon as soon as I could (around or before half court), I would have trapped the pick instead of switching and fouled Pierce before he can turn.

Mainly, I would have told my players to press Rondo and foul him right before or at mid-court.

You can't tell me that you did not think that shot would be good as soon as he shot it - c'mon! I hate him and I hate seeing him continuously beat us

I don't remember the team (I think it was StanVG) did this twice withing 20 seconds and it worked for him.

I am not saying to always do this but Allen and Pierce cannot both be double teamed so they are gonna find a way to get a good look and always seem to.

you are coaching in hind sight.

Up 3 you would start your defense at half court... and watch Rondo, one of the fastest, trickiest dudes with the ball blow past you and create an open slot for someone.

No I would have fouled rondo at or before half court. Yes, I agree it is hind sight and maybe I'm wrong but I consistently feel this way against certain teams and players. KD shoots that ball, you don't think it is going down?

I am also curious (in hind sight :-)) why JJ was not in the game. But I guess I give the benefit of the doubt to MDA on that one.
NYKBocker
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3/5/2012  7:23 PM
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

what exactly would you have done if you were coach? Specifically, detail it out.

15-18 seconds on clock don't foul? 10-15 start to think about foul? < 10 seconds foul in 3 point land but not Pierce or Allen? Oh, and don't get clipped by KG on the pick cause he is DEFINITELY gonna move his screen.

Is that what MDA should be instructing? These aren't robots out there.

I would have pressured Rondo up the court and fouled him as soon as soon as I could (around or before half court), I would have trapped the pick instead of switching and fouled Pierce before he can turn.

Mainly, I would have told my players to press Rondo and foul him right before or at mid-court.

You can't tell me that you did not think that shot would be good as soon as he shot it - c'mon! I hate him and I hate seeing him continuously beat us

I don't remember the team (I think it was StanVG) did this twice withing 20 seconds and it worked for him.

I am not saying to always do this but Allen and Pierce cannot both be double teamed so they are gonna find a way to get a good look and always seem to.

you are coaching in hind sight.

Up 3 you would start your defense at half court... and watch Rondo, one of the fastest, trickiest dudes with the ball blow past you and create an open slot for someone.

No I would have fouled rondo at or before half court. Yes, I agree it is hind sight and maybe I'm wrong but I consistently feel this way against certain teams and players. KD shoots that ball, you don't think it is going down?

I am also curious (in hind sight :-)) why JJ was not in the game. But I guess I give the benefit of the doubt to MDA on that one.

Because Novak was in the foul line and MDA replaced Lin and STAT with JR and Shump. Both are very good perimeter defenders. Maybe he should have replaced Melo but Melo was guarding Bass which was not a factor.
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3/5/2012  7:29 PM    LAST EDITED: 3/5/2012  7:29 PM
I hate not fouling when you are up three and less than one possession on the shot clock left in the game. Especially against the Celtics - Pierce and Ray Allen seem to live to hit those shots against us. Foul them and take the game out of their hands.
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mrKnickShot
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3/5/2012  7:29 PM
NYKBocker wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
y2zipper wrote:I'm a believer that you don't foul because there's no chance to lose the game on that play. If you foul, you open the door for a four-point play. The Knicks made the right play. They didn't foul the jump shooter and forced him to make a contested three. He just happened to make it.

That's playing scared and not to lose instead of to win. It's the NBA version of the prevent defense which we all love

what exactly would you have done if you were coach? Specifically, detail it out.

15-18 seconds on clock don't foul? 10-15 start to think about foul? < 10 seconds foul in 3 point land but not Pierce or Allen? Oh, and don't get clipped by KG on the pick cause he is DEFINITELY gonna move his screen.

Is that what MDA should be instructing? These aren't robots out there.

I would have pressured Rondo up the court and fouled him as soon as soon as I could (around or before half court), I would have trapped the pick instead of switching and fouled Pierce before he can turn.

Mainly, I would have told my players to press Rondo and foul him right before or at mid-court.

You can't tell me that you did not think that shot would be good as soon as he shot it - c'mon! I hate him and I hate seeing him continuously beat us

I don't remember the team (I think it was StanVG) did this twice withing 20 seconds and it worked for him.

I am not saying to always do this but Allen and Pierce cannot both be double teamed so they are gonna find a way to get a good look and always seem to.

you are coaching in hind sight.

Up 3 you would start your defense at half court... and watch Rondo, one of the fastest, trickiest dudes with the ball blow past you and create an open slot for someone.

No I would have fouled rondo at or before half court. Yes, I agree it is hind sight and maybe I'm wrong but I consistently feel this way against certain teams and players. KD shoots that ball, you don't think it is going down?

I am also curious (in hind sight :-)) why JJ was not in the game. But I guess I give the benefit of the doubt to MDA on that one.

Because Novak was in the foul line and MDA replaced Lin and STAT with JR and Shump. Both are very good perimeter defenders. Maybe he should have replaced Melo but Melo was guarding Bass which was not a factor.

I don't JR is a better defender that JJ especially with all the switching. Buy again - that is up to the coach.

I just watched the end again and there were many chances to foul - would have love to foul Rondo on the perimeter too but we had NOVAK on him so he was playing 10 feet of him - can't foul him when you are so far away. When Pierce caught the ball coming around the BS pick, was another safe place to foul him from behind before he turned.
mrKnickShot
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3/5/2012  7:30 PM
crzymdups wrote:I hate not fouling when you are up three and less than one possession on the shot clock left in the game. Especially against the Celtics - Pierce and Ray Allen seem to live to hit those shots against us. Foul them and take the game out of their hands.

Thank You!!!!!!!!!!!11

ITS PP AND ALLEN not the Sixers!
knicks1248
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3/5/2012  7:33 PM
franco12 wrote:
Nalod wrote:Foul when?

KG set an illegal but effective no call screen. Can foul him when he is beyond the arch.

Love the monday morning QB thing on the UK. With the benefit of hindsight we are all sooooo much smarter!

IM sure we all wanted a win but Boston is one tough team at home and they were up for a national game on their home floor.

Pierce is one of the best clutch shooters in the history of the game. Hate him but respect.

This isn't Monday Morning Quarterbacking.

This loss is 100% on D'Antoni.

You foul the ball handler at 10 seconds when they are moving away from the basket.

Boston had 0 time outs.

We hit our FTs and they have to score from their end line in 5 seconds. They need luck, and I would live with that.

+1

ES
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3/5/2012  8:03 PM
crzymdups wrote:I hate not fouling when you are up three and less than one possession on the shot clock left in the game. Especially against the Celtics - Pierce and Ray Allen seem to live to hit those shots against us. Foul them and take the game out of their hands.

+1. Sometimes the game situation and opponent dictates what is the most prudent move. Knicks should have fouled. Pierce and Allen are Knick killers in that situation.
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93BUICK
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3/5/2012  9:45 PM
Wasn't there a foul to give though? That's a different situation- then you pressure them defensively to inbound again- is a different question than sending them to the line and putting pressure on the Knicks to make responding foul shots-
I think the 90 to 93 percent stats are pretty telling though- but with a foul to give I think the Knicks have a lot of guys who put a lot of pressure on an inbound passer and it gives us a clear advantage. W/out a foul to give, I think playing it out is the way to go
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3/5/2012  10:32 PM
time and time again I look at MDA and his situational coaching....from the last set play in regulation (why do you run a play to get the ball in lins hands and then exchange it to carmelo who is 5 feet away from him...all with 4 seconds left, why not just get the ball to melo if thats what you wanted?) This has become a norm. This is the sign of a BAD coach, any coach can look at game film and try and make adjustments (which I think he did not do) But there is a vast difference in MDA and his lack of half time adjustments and in game situational coaching compared to any good coach. WE CAN NOT WIN WITH MDA PERIOD.
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3/5/2012  10:44 PM
So...same situation tonight with Clippers and Timberwolves. Adelman intructs his team not to foul with 4.8 seconds left and up 3. They end up fouling CP3 trying to shoot a 3. Good for Minny that CP3 missed the 3rd FT. Imagine if CP3 made the 3 pointer for a 4 pt play.

I always say you play defense and make it tough for the other team and don't foul.
mrKnickShot
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3/5/2012  11:42 PM    LAST EDITED: 3/6/2012  12:28 AM
NYKBocker wrote:So...same situation tonight with Clippers and Timberwolves. Adelman intructs his team not to foul with 4.8 seconds left and up 3. They end up fouling CP3 trying to shoot a 3. Good for Minny that CP3 missed the 3rd FT. Imagine if CP3 made the 3 pointer for a 4 pt play.

I always say you play defense and make it tough for the other team and don't foul.

So I was watching the Sacremento Denver game and there was 7.9 seconds left. Denver down 3 with no time outs. The announcer is saying foul foul foul. They don't foul, Affalo for 3 .......

Contested and fouled - 3 free throws!!

What do you do? Not contest? Contest carefully? Or, foul before they get a chance to shoot which they certainly could have?

Dumb move - tie game. Overtime!

We don't intentionally foul because we might end up fouling in the act if the player pulls a quick one, so, we don't foul and are timid with our contest as to not foul a 3 point shooter . Prevent Defense at its best.

NYBocker, what was the full scenario in your game. SO they were not suppose to foul and also ended up fouling a 3 point shooter? How does that support your argument? I think it negates it.

Denver wins! I hope there is a CRON job running tonight to reajust the SUPER STATS machine.

So, where does this game go in regards to the stats? They fouled so it would go as a "Loss WITH Fouling". But, they did not intentionally foul, they contested a 3! That's why these stats can be very misleading (if this is the case). 93 vs 90 pct is such a small deviation to start. Then factor this scenario (contesting a 3 and fouling), who we are playing, do they factor in ex-champs? How many all-star shooters the team has? Home vs Road? Rivalry game? Chances of winning in OT?

So, we have seen this not work out in 3 games in 2 days.

Another point is you don't want to go to overtime in a rivalry game on the road. Too hard to win, especially after you blow a lead.

Sorry - did not mean to RonRon or TripleThreat here

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3/6/2012  1:47 AM
The poster of this topic is correct

Mike D'Antoni proves that players definitely makes a DIFFERENCE in the game
and the COACHING cannot in key situations unless:

1) Coach is Doc Rivers
2) Coach is Greg Popovich
3) Coach is Phil Jackson
4) Coach is Rick Carlisle

And perhaps few coaches I've forgot to mention

You take the ball out of Paul Pierce hands
At least several stealth teams coaches would have triple-teammed Pierce and make him squander to pass off the ball
to another open Celtic to force up a 3-point shot. Other than Ray Allen ability to STICK it like Pierce you live
with that. b

Not getting the Knick switch defense of Iman Shumpert to be alone & although played good defense the bottom line is
you need to force Paul Pierce to pass the ball, let someone else beat you from 3' if you're not fouling.

NO Mike D'antoni coached team is ever going to have the brains to do that since D'
isnt in MDA's arsenal.

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mrKnickShot
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3/6/2012  2:28 AM
Great article by Peter Vescey - MDA blew the Boston Game(don't always agree with him but he is completely on point here):

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/foul_play_Y5dzyKOA0RDYHDOtyXlxPK?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Knicks
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