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OT: Mets get Santana
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islesfan
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2/1/2008  3:56 PM
A little more than an hour to go. Can the Mets really blow this gimme?

I'm sure the deal will get done but not before Santana has the Mets bent over for 6 years guaranteed and $150M+ total. That's a huge deal for a guy with tons of innings on his arm the last few years.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
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TMS
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2/1/2008  5:08 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:

i don't know what you know that the ML scouts don't, but when every scout in baseball gets excited about a kid, i tend to give them the benefit of the doubt

anyway, i'm not sure what you're arguing me here since i already said it would have been a riskier move to make the trade in the first place.
I wasn't arguing anything with you. I was presenting an alternative viewpoint. Question: What do I know that the scouts don't? Answer: A LOT about statistics.

the scouts don't know about stats?
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
Bonn1997
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2/1/2008  6:00 PM
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:

i don't know what you know that the ML scouts don't, but when every scout in baseball gets excited about a kid, i tend to give them the benefit of the doubt

anyway, i'm not sure what you're arguing me here since i already said it would have been a riskier move to make the trade in the first place.
I wasn't arguing anything with you. I was presenting an alternative viewpoint. Question: What do I know that the scouts don't? Answer: A LOT about statistics.

the scouts don't know about stats?
I'm willing to bet they know a lot less about stats than anyone with training beyond the master's in a social science. But I think your earlier question is based on the incorrect assumption that the scouts and I disagree about Hughes. We don't. Like the scouts, I would say Hughes is an outstanding prospect. I'd give him higher odds than any rookie (except Joba) of becoming an ace pitcher BUT I wouldn't put it at higher than maybe 30% (and maybe 2% for Cy Young award winner). Given his multiple leg injuries already, I might put the odds of him becoming an injury-prone bust at 30% also. In contrast, I'd put the odds of Santana becoming an ace at 100% because he already is one.
eViL
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2/1/2008  7:09 PM
Done deal.
check out my latest hip hop project: https://soundcloud.com/michaelcro http://youtu.be/scNXshrpyZo
eViL
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2/1/2008  7:17 PM
PS: Pending physical. Looks like the extension is worth $139M at $22M per year for 6 years plus a $7M signing bonus.
check out my latest hip hop project: https://soundcloud.com/michaelcro http://youtu.be/scNXshrpyZo
Bonn1997
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2/1/2008  9:49 PM
If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill
TMS
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2/1/2008  10:07 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:

i don't know what you know that the ML scouts don't, but when every scout in baseball gets excited about a kid, i tend to give them the benefit of the doubt

anyway, i'm not sure what you're arguing me here since i already said it would have been a riskier move to make the trade in the first place.
I wasn't arguing anything with you. I was presenting an alternative viewpoint. Question: What do I know that the scouts don't? Answer: A LOT about statistics.

the scouts don't know about stats?
I'm willing to bet they know a lot less about stats than anyone with training beyond the master's in a social science. But I think your earlier question is based on the incorrect assumption that the scouts and I disagree about Hughes. We don't. Like the scouts, I would say Hughes is an outstanding prospect. I'd give him higher odds than any rookie (except Joba) of becoming an ace pitcher BUT I wouldn't put it at higher than maybe 30% (and maybe 2% for Cy Young award winner). Given his multiple leg injuries already, I might put the odds of him becoming an injury-prone bust at 30% also. In contrast, I'd put the odds of Santana becoming an ace at 100% because he already is one.

dude, i've been agreeing w/u this entire time about Johan... i woulda made the deal like i said, but the risk is high when you look at how many pitchers that have been signed to longer contracts than 5 years have faired over the years... i have no doubts in my mind that Johan's gonna be a true ace for the Muts in the first 4 years, but after that it's anyone's guess... he's logged a ton of innings on his arm so far & the contract combined w/the prospects the Yankees would have had to give up would have been a huge price to pay... i'll say it again, i woulda gone for it myself but i can understand why the Yankees were hesitant to make the deal... holding onto our young talent isn't the end of the world... the Yankees still have 1 of the best offensive lineups in the game & a VERY good batch of young talent waiting in the wings... the only way i woulda been complaining about us not getting Johan is if the Red Sux got him for Lester, a couple 2nd tier guys & Coco freakin' Crisp
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
TMS
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2/1/2008  10:08 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
jaydh
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2/1/2008  10:38 PM
what a steal. if glavine doesn't leave, we don't go after santana. now we have santana and 2 good picks from glavine.
Bonn1997
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2/2/2008  6:55 AM
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:

i don't know what you know that the ML scouts don't, but when every scout in baseball gets excited about a kid, i tend to give them the benefit of the doubt

anyway, i'm not sure what you're arguing me here since i already said it would have been a riskier move to make the trade in the first place.
I wasn't arguing anything with you. I was presenting an alternative viewpoint. Question: What do I know that the scouts don't? Answer: A LOT about statistics.

the scouts don't know about stats?
I'm willing to bet they know a lot less about stats than anyone with training beyond the master's in a social science. But I think your earlier question is based on the incorrect assumption that the scouts and I disagree about Hughes. We don't. Like the scouts, I would say Hughes is an outstanding prospect. I'd give him higher odds than any rookie (except Joba) of becoming an ace pitcher BUT I wouldn't put it at higher than maybe 30% (and maybe 2% for Cy Young award winner). Given his multiple leg injuries already, I might put the odds of him becoming an injury-prone bust at 30% also. In contrast, I'd put the odds of Santana becoming an ace at 100% because he already is one.

dude, i've been agreeing w/u this entire time about Johan... i woulda made the deal like i said, but the risk is high when you look at how many pitchers that have been signed to longer contracts than 5 years have faired over the years... i have no doubts in my mind that Johan's gonna be a true ace for the Muts in the first 4 years, but after that it's anyone's guess... he's logged a ton of innings on his arm so far & the contract combined w/the prospects the Yankees would have had to give up would have been a huge price to pay... i'll say it again, i woulda gone for it myself but i can understand why the Yankees were hesitant to make the deal... holding onto our young talent isn't the end of the world... the Yankees still have 1 of the best offensive lineups in the game & a VERY good batch of young talent waiting in the wings... the only way i woulda been complaining about us not getting Johan is if the Red Sux got him for Lester, a couple 2nd tier guys & Coco freakin' Crisp
You would have made the deal? I didn't realize you said that.
Bonn1997
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2/2/2008  7:21 AM
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?
majorleads
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2/2/2008  9:12 AM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?

Thats interesting. I guess it all depends on how much you're attached to ARod in pinstripes. I think a lot of Yankee fans would do it because there really isn't an emotional connection between ARod and Yankee fans.

As for the Mets, I would never in a million years have traded Jose Reyes for Santana because when I think of the Mets, I think Reyes and Wright. And there would be waaaaaay to much pressure on Santana to perform well EVERY start because most fans would be pissed that Reyes isn't on the team. I would be.
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Bonn1997
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2/2/2008  2:02 PM
Posted by majorleads:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?

Thats interesting. I guess it all depends on how much you're attached to ARod in pinstripes. I think a lot of Yankee fans would do it because there really isn't an emotional connection between ARod and Yankee fans.

As for the Mets, I would never in a million years have traded Jose Reyes for Santana because when I think of the Mets, I think Reyes and Wright. And there would be waaaaaay to much pressure on Santana to perform well EVERY start because most fans would be pissed that Reyes isn't on the team. I would be.
The only Yankee position player I wouldn't trade for Santana is Jeter. And that's NOT because the Yankees would be better off keeping Jeter but rather because I'm too attached to Jeter to trade him away. A championship without him would lose meaning.
Bonn1997
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2/2/2008  2:09 PM
Posted by majorleads:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?

Thats interesting. I guess it all depends on how much you're attached to ARod in pinstripes. I think a lot of Yankee fans would do it because there really isn't an emotional connection between ARod and Yankee fans.

As for the Mets, I would never in a million years have traded Jose Reyes for Santana because when I think of the Mets, I think Reyes and Wright. And there would be waaaaaay to much pressure on Santana to perform well EVERY start because most fans would be pissed that Reyes isn't on the team. I would be.
Or another way of asking it would be, "if you could go back in time 4 years, who would you rather have had on the Yankees' roster: A-Rod or Santana?" No matter how the question was worded, I'd pick Santana though!
jaydh
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2/2/2008  3:00 PM
i think its obvious if the yanks had santana the last 4 years they would have won another ring. santana is a guy that can pitch 2 games in a 5game series or 3 games in a 7 game series.
islesfan
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2/2/2008  3:25 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?

Hell no. Why would you trade an MVP candidate who has a chance to change 150-160 games, in a positive way, for any pitcher, who in a great year will only help you win 20-30 games?

On a side note, what the Twins were demanding from the Yankees in relation to what they accepted from the Mets is mindboggling. Throw in that contract and I'm so happy that Cashman and Hal were smart enough to say no.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
TMS
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2/2/2008  4:27 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?

i don't know to tell u the truth... ARod alone was probably responsible for winning at least 5-6 games last year that the Yankees wouldn't have ordinarily won... if you replaced his presense in the lineup with Johan in the starting rotation you probably get about the same result... i was curious how you valued Johan to be more than twice ARod's value when a positional player is involved in a much larger percentage of a team's play over the course of the season than just 1 starting pitcher... top level pitchers should theoretically not be getting paid more than top level positional players IMO.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
Solace
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2/2/2008  4:59 PM
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:

If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill

i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?

i don't know to tell u the truth... ARod alone was probably responsible for winning at least 5-6 games last year that the Yankees wouldn't have ordinarily won... if you replaced his presense in the lineup with Johan in the starting rotation you probably get about the same result... i was curious how you valued Johan to be more than twice ARod's value when a positional player is involved in a much larger percentage of a team's play over the course of the season than just 1 starting pitcher... top level pitchers should theoretically not be getting paid more than top level positional players IMO.

I think this is a common misconception. A top starter has a much bigger impact on an individual game than a single position player. You have to figure that a starting pitcher accounts for near 50% of the team's chance of winning the games that he does start. I think position players probably account for 10% or less of the team's chance of winning a particular game.

I think the big difference in this case is that A-Rod's been useless in the playoffs, but Santana could be the difference between winning and losing a series.
Wishing everyone well. I enjoyed posting here for a while, but as I matured I realized this forum isn't for me. We all evolve. Thanks for the memories everyone.
TMS
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2/2/2008  5:16 PM
it's not a common misconception, the fact of the matter is Johan contributes to only maybe 30 games during the course of a season while ARod can contribute to a potential 162... the difference isn't even close... your use of percentage estimations doesn't prove anything, because if Johan only contributes to 50% of the ~30 games he's going to start, while ARod only contributes to 10% of the ~160 games he's going to, then the numbers still average out to be about the same in terms of overall contributing factor... the fact of the matter is that ARod will have many more opportunities to help his team win over the course of the season than Johan would, it's not even debateable.

there was a statistical study done last year in a news article i read that showed how much of an impact ARod's production netted in terms of Wins & Losses... i wish i could find it right now, but to summarize it ended up revealing that without his bat the Yankees would have lost 5-6 more games last year & may have missed out on the playoffs altogether... like i said, take his bat out of the lineup & add Johan's arm to the rotation & you likely get the same result in the extra amount of games you'll win... that said, how does anyone figure the best starting pitcher in the game to be more than twice the value of the top positional player? that's a ludicrous exaggeration that's obviously borne out of personal dislike for the guy.

i realize the difference Johan can make in a postseason series... i've stated that case plenty of times duing the trade for Johan discussion... that still doesn't justify the idea that he's worth that much more dollar wise.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
TMS
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2/2/2008  5:27 PM
you guys have to consider all these factors in this discussion:

1 - marketing appeal of ARod's presence in the lineup (ticket sales spiked to over 4 mil every season since he's been here, that's not a fluke)

2 - the amount of talent we would have had to give up to get Johan to the Bronx along w/the amount of dollars we would have had to pay him upfront was prohibitive

3 - the risk factor in taking on a starting pitcher who's about to hit his 30's on a 6 year extension when no other contract of that kind has ever panned out well for any teams in the past in the history of baseball cannot be overshadowed

we signed ARod to his extension & didn't have to give up any talent to do it... that was huge... his presence in our lineup accounts for at least 5-6 wins every season that we normally would not have... that possibly makes the difference in making the playoffs last year... Johan would have netted about the same results had we chose to go w/him rather than signing ARod, but then we also lose out on the talent we'd be giving back to the Twins... this was not a trade that the Yankees could justifiably make, as much as i would have liked to have seen Johan in Yankee pinstripes... it just wasn't in the cards for us this time.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
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