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Benefits of Curry... vs more "traditional" centers
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BlueSeats
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5/11/2007  11:14 AM
Posted by RemBee76:
Posted by BlueSeats:
You talk about causal relationships but then don't explain why so called "better shot selection" yielded a net decrease in shooting percentages.

I don't rely on statistics to make my observations for me. I trust what I see first, and look up how those statistics might support or deny those observations later. I guess we all pretty much work the same way.

My observation this season was that it was not an even performance from our Knicks. Particularly the first months or so were rough, then things ended badly with the injuries. But they improved considerably over the course of the season, at least on offense, when the team started to find its rhythm working together in the middle months. I think that period of January and February, sample size issues aside, is a better indicator of the future than looking at the full season’s totals.

Month of January, Curry's best month; Jamal Crawford shooting 42% and Marbury shooting 46% are not indicators of better shot selection? How do you figure? And Lee actually had his best rpm numbers that month as well.

Again, when your best players are playing their best ball at the same time it is a good indicator that they are playing off of each other, working within a team scheme, and Curry was the center of that scheme. You would think Knick fans, who rarely saw Spree and Houston play well at the same time, would appreciate that.


I see what you're saying. You liked what you saw of the way the team played for a certain stretch of the season and you think they have good potential together. That's fair. However, I don't agree with the cherry picking of FG percentages. Peaks and valleys in a season are the norm and those guys have had percentages well higher than that for other stretches of their careers, so I see nothing unique about it to Curry.

That the team played mediocre ball for a stretch with Curry still allows the question of how they might play without him. Certain stats from 82games makes one wonder.

While he personally outscores his opponents the team's scoring declines by 2.7 pts per 100 possessions (pp100p) and our defense declines by 5.3 pp100p for a net deficit of 8 pp100p.

With him on the court our eFG% allowed rises 5% to 52%. The opponents assisted FGs go up 7%. FTs attempted by the opponent go up. Our turnovers go up.

With Eddy on the court our offensive rebounding declines by 5% (hear that bigbeast?)

With Eddy on the court our turnovers go up.

With Eddy on the court the opponents FT attempts go up, and amazingly, ours go down!

Anyway, it's all here for you to see.

http://www.82games.com/0607/06NYK14D.HTM
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RemBee76
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5/11/2007  11:29 AM
Posted by BlueSeats:
With Eddy on the court the opponents FT attempts go up, and amazingly, ours go down!

Yeah, it is amazing. Again, be weary of how you use statistics, especially those that are based on the 13 minutes when Curry isn't on the court (talk about sample size). So those 13 minutes are a good indicator that we are better off without Curry for 48? Not buying it. Especially not when you look at Curry's points-per-possession, the highest on the team.

Of course there are peaks and valleys in a season. Does this mean we should ignore it when those peaks for three of our top guys coincide? Not at all. That’s like the "flip of the coin" argument. Players don't play in a vacuum, and just as who they play against is a factor, who they play with is as well.

I'm not going to belabor this further. We'll know next season, when I think we can all hope that we'll have a larger sample size to prove these positive trends.
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TrueBlue
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5/11/2007  11:32 AM
Pretty interesting that our free throws go down while he's on the court commanding double to triple teams. You'd think, him being the stud he is he'd get hacked to death by those defensive schemes or make them pay by adequately passing out of those schemes causing the opponents defense to be vulnerable to leaving guys wide open or possibly having his teammates get in the heart of the defense causing them to commit more fouls. But like Isles has stated over 100X's already defenses want nothing more than the ball to go into the post to our Black Hole, Selfish, Turnover Prone, Franchise Player.
LMFAO @ the Bio [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephon_Marbury[/url]
TrueBlue
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5/11/2007  11:38 AM
Posted by RemBee76:
Posted by BlueSeats:
With Eddy on the court the opponents FT attempts go up, and amazingly, ours go down!

Yeah, it is amazing. Again, be weary of how you use statistics, especially those that are based on the 13 minutes when Curry isn't on the court (talk about sample size). So those 13 minutes are a good indicator that we are better off without Curry for 48? Not buying it. Especially not when you look at Curry's points-per-possession, the highest on the team.

Of course there are peaks and valleys in a season. Does this mean we should ignore it when those peaks for three of our top guys coincide? Not at all. That’s like the "flip of the coin" argument. Players don't play in a vacuum, and just as who they play against is a factor, who they play with is as well.

I'm not going to belabor this further. We'll know next season, when I think we can all hope that we'll have a larger sample size to prove these positive trends.


Wouldn't it be 35min? And it's more so maybe we'd rather have Curry not over 30min and add 5 more min to the 13min with him being off the court. If we're so much better off with him on the court then he should be leaving the court having his team remain in the positive. Or else bring him off the bench with the other positive rotational players so his numbers can reflect such. You think Tim Duncan has noticeably negative stats or very minimal positive stats when it comes to +/-? And no this isn't a comparison to Tim Duncan but look at any Top 3 player on any given team and I guarantee Curry's +/- are amongst the worst of them.


[Edited by - TrueBlue on 05-11-2007 10:46 AM]
LMFAO @ the Bio [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephon_Marbury[/url]
Masterplan
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5/11/2007  11:40 AM
Posted by RemBee76:
Posted by BlueSeats:
With Eddy on the court the opponents FT attempts go up, and amazingly, ours go down!

Yeah, it is amazing. Again, be weary of how you use statistics, especially those that are based on the 13 minutes when Curry isn't on the court (talk about sample size). So those 13 minutes are a good indicator that we are better off without Curry for 48? Not buying it. Especially not when you look at Curry's points-per-possession, the highest on the team.

13 minutes/game over the course of the season... plus the few games he's missed... over a thousand minutes of game play.

and when enough weak stats all suggest the same thing, you gotta put some stock in it
Bonn1997
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5/11/2007  11:46 AM
Posted by TrueBlue:
Posted by RemBee76:
Posted by BlueSeats:
With Eddy on the court the opponents FT attempts go up, and amazingly, ours go down!

Yeah, it is amazing. Again, be weary of how you use statistics, especially those that are based on the 13 minutes when Curry isn't on the court (talk about sample size). So those 13 minutes are a good indicator that we are better off without Curry for 48? Not buying it. Especially not when you look at Curry's points-per-possession, the highest on the team.

Of course there are peaks and valleys in a season. Does this mean we should ignore it when those peaks for three of our top guys coincide? Not at all. That’s like the "flip of the coin" argument. Players don't play in a vacuum, and just as who they play against is a factor, who they play with is as well.

I'm not going to belabor this further. We'll know next season, when I think we can all hope that we'll have a larger sample size to prove these positive trends.


Wouldn't it be 35min? And it's more so maybe we'd rather have Curry not over 30min and add 5 more min to the 13min with him being off the court. If we're so much better off with him on the court then he should be leaving the court having his team remain in the positive. Or else bring him off the bench with the other positive rotational players so his numbers can reflect such. You think Tim Duncan has negative stats when it comes to +/- and no this isn't a comparison to Tim Duncan but look at any Top 3 player on any given team and guarantee Curry's +/- are amongst the worst of them.
He was off the floor for 12.8 mpg over 81 games and all 48 in the game he missed. That works out to 1084 minutes. That really isn't a small sample. Also, his on off numbers in all the categories BlueSeats cited for this year are consistent with the on off #s he's had in his previous five years, in which he was off the court for around 1500 minutes each year. You'd have to conclude that the sample of around 10,000 off the court min for his career is too small, which is a hard claim to sell. His teams have simply always done better in almost every phase of the game when he's off the court.
nixluva
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5/11/2007  11:48 AM
Posted by TrueBlue:

Pretty interesting that our free throws go down while he's on the court commanding double to triple teams. You'd think, him being the stud he is he'd get hacked to death by those defensive schemes or make them pay by adequately passing out of those schemes causing the opponents defense to be vulnerable to leaving guys wide open or possibly having his teammates get in the heart of the defense causing them to commit more fouls. But like Isles has stated over 100X's already defenses want nothing more than the ball to go into the post to our Black Hole, Selfish, Turnover Prone, Franchise Player.

My problem with all this is that we're looking at this one season when we practically JUST FOUND this offense with Curry at the head of it. It was admittedly still VERY rough around the edges. This isn't the way this offense is always going to look. I think we saw glimpses of how good it can be and we certainly saw how bad it can look when it's not run right. We also have a significant amount of time when we didn't have either of our best perimeter threats on the floor. In general this was a good first run, but I think we'll see an improved version of this as this team moves along.

Curry is supposed to be somewhat selfish, but at the same time he has to get better at recognizing when he should pass. If you watched the games towards the end of the season he was MUCH more patient and was clearly watching the defense and reacting much better, but you have to also remember that we didn't have Q or Jamal. I think i've seen the growth starting already and we have to use a little more than just the Stats to ascertain what this team is going to eventually be able to do. All you guys are saying is that they aren't very good with it right now and we already KNOW THAT! If they were executing everything right, we wouldn't avg 17 TO's and we'd be up aroiund 100+ pts a game and 20 asts. We KNOW there's a lot of work to be done, but this is going to be the way this team will play and they'll have to perfect the inside to outside game.

As for defenses actually wanting the ball to go to Curry, that's not entirely true. For one thing they devote an inordinate amount of effort in denying him the ball for a reason. He wreaks havoc on teams in the paint and they can't survive with him getting close to the basket everytime, scoring and drawing fouls. They had it much easier when we didn't have our shooters. That won't always be the case. Even if he passes the ball out a ton, that doesn't mean that he's suddently going to avg 6 asts a game or something. We're realistically only looking for about 2 asts a game. The threat of him inside will lead to better perimeter passing and scoring in time and they won't always have to actually throw it inside. This was the 1st yr under Isiah and I look forward to this team having much more time together under him so they can perfect this system and it becomes 2nd nature for them.
TrueBlue
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5/11/2007  11:48 AM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TrueBlue:
Posted by RemBee76:
Posted by BlueSeats:
With Eddy on the court the opponents FT attempts go up, and amazingly, ours go down!

Yeah, it is amazing. Again, be weary of how you use statistics, especially those that are based on the 13 minutes when Curry isn't on the court (talk about sample size). So those 13 minutes are a good indicator that we are better off without Curry for 48? Not buying it. Especially not when you look at Curry's points-per-possession, the highest on the team.

Of course there are peaks and valleys in a season. Does this mean we should ignore it when those peaks for three of our top guys coincide? Not at all. That’s like the "flip of the coin" argument. Players don't play in a vacuum, and just as who they play against is a factor, who they play with is as well.

I'm not going to belabor this further. We'll know next season, when I think we can all hope that we'll have a larger sample size to prove these positive trends.


Wouldn't it be 35min? And it's more so maybe we'd rather have Curry not over 30min and add 5 more min to the 13min with him being off the court. If we're so much better off with him on the court then he should be leaving the court having his team remain in the positive. Or else bring him off the bench with the other positive rotational players so his numbers can reflect such. You think Tim Duncan has negative stats when it comes to +/- and no this isn't a comparison to Tim Duncan but look at any Top 3 player on any given team and guarantee Curry's +/- are amongst the worst of them.
He was off the floor for 12.8 mpg over 81 games and all 48 in the game he missed. That works out to 1084 minutes. That really isn't a small sample. Also, his on off numbers in all the categories BlueSeats cited for this year are consistent with the on off #s he's had in his previous five years, in which he was off the court for around 1500 minutes each year. You'd have to conclude that the sample of around 10,000 off the court min for his career is too small, which is a hard claim to sell. His teams have simply always done better in almost every phase of the game when he's off the court.


Oh ok! So they were compiling the game he missed and his regular season minutes.

[Edited by - TrueBlue on 05-11-2007 10:49 AM]
LMFAO @ the Bio [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephon_Marbury[/url]
Benefits of Curry... vs more "traditional" centers

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