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Why I think having Frye on the first team will hurt his development
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nyk4ever
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10/6/2006  4:52 PM
Posted by tomverve:

There is a measure called "rebound rate" that eliminates that confound, basically by looking at what % of rebound opportunities a player/team manages to actually rebound. The Knicks were fourth in the league in offensive rebound rate last season, so you can't chalk up the good numbers to more opportunities. The Knicks were a great offensive rebounding team last season.

I don't understand, maybe I'm missing something. The Knicks Adjusted FG%, which takes into consideration all offensive misses(2pt shots, 3pt shots, Free Throws) places the Knicks at 22nd in the league with a .481 Adjusted FG% This means the Knicks were missing a hell of alot of shots and had more opportunities for offensive rebounds.


[Edited by - nyk4ever on 10-06-2006 4:53 PM]
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tomverve
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10/6/2006  5:16 PM
Posted by nyk4ever:

I don't understand, maybe I'm missing something. The Knicks Adjusted FG%, which takes into consideration all offensive misses(2pt shots, 3pt shots, Free Throws) places the Knicks at 22nd in the league with a .481 Adjusted FG% This means the Knicks were missing a hell of alot of shots and had more opportunities for offensive rebounds.

Suppose that on average, team A misses 20 shots per game and gets offensive rebounds on 10 of those.
Suppose that on average, team B misses 50 shots per game and gets offensive rebounds on 20 of those.

Just looking at the offensive rebound totals, one might think team B is a much better offensive rebounding team; after all, they grab twice as many offensive boards per game as team A. But of course team B also gets a lot more opportunities to get offensive boards in the first place, so maybe their higher o-rebound totals don't imply that they're the better offensive rebounding team in terms of actual ability.

To eliminate this problem we can just look at what percentage of offensive rebounding opportunities each team actually converts into offensive rebounds. You can think of this measure as telling us how many offensive rebounds each team grabs for every 100 opportunities. So the differences in opportunities are leveled out by looking at the percentage and all that remains is ability to convert those opportunities into actual rebounds.

Team A's offensive rebound rate is 10/20 = 50%. Team B's is 20/50 = 40%. So for every 100 offensive rebounding opportunities, on average team A will grab 50 and team B will grab 40. We conclude that team A is actually the better offensive rebounding team. Make sense?

The Knicks had an offensive rebound rate last season of .312. That means that they converted 31.2% of their offensive rebound opportunities, or that for every 100 missed shots the Knicks grabbed an average of 31.2 offensive boards. That number ranked 4th in the NBA.
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nyk4ever
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10/6/2006  5:25 PM
Posted by tomverve:
Posted by nyk4ever:

I don't understand, maybe I'm missing something. The Knicks Adjusted FG%, which takes into consideration all offensive misses(2pt shots, 3pt shots, Free Throws) places the Knicks at 22nd in the league with a .481 Adjusted FG% This means the Knicks were missing a hell of alot of shots and had more opportunities for offensive rebounds.

Suppose that on average, team A misses 20 shots per game and gets offensive rebounds on 10 of those.
Suppose that on average, team B misses 50 shots per game and gets offensive rebounds on 20 of those.

Just looking at the offensive rebound totals, one might think team B is a much better offensive rebounding team; after all, they grab twice as many offensive boards per game as team A. But of course team B also gets a lot more opportunities to get offensive boards in the first place, so maybe their higher o-rebound totals don't imply that they're the better offensive rebounding team in terms of actual ability.

To eliminate this problem we can just look at what percentage of offensive rebounding opportunities each team actually converts into offensive rebounds. You can think of this measure as telling us how many offensive rebounds each team grabs for every 100 opportunities. So the differences in opportunities are leveled out by looking at the percentage and all that remains is ability to convert those opportunities into actual rebounds.

Team A's offensive rebound rate is 10/20 = 50%. Team B's is 20/50 = 40%. So for every 100 offensive rebounding opportunities, on average team A will grab 50 and team B will grab 40. We conclude that team A is actually the better offensive rebounding team. Make sense?

The Knicks had an offensive rebound rate last season of .312. That means that they converted 31.2% of their offensive rebound opportunities, or that for every 100 missed shots the Knicks grabbed an average of 31.2 offensive boards. That number ranked 4th in the NBA.

Ahhhh, I gotcha now Tom. Thanks for the explanation

So I guess what the stats say is that the Knicks were a pretty good offensive rebounding team. I didn't get that impression from watching the games, it seemed to me that the Knicks were a poor rebounding team.
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tomverve
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10/6/2006  5:28 PM
They were very good at offensive rebounding (4th) but only middle of the road in defensive rebounding (13th). Perhaps the lack of any dominant individual rebounding efforts gave the appearance of a worse team rebounding effort.
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joec32033
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10/7/2006  5:08 AM
Its like saying after we drafted Patrick Ewing, he should come off the bench because he would be better in the second unit because he was more defensive minded, etc.

Frye is no Ewing. Frye probably won't be as good at the end of his career as Ewing was when he first came out of college.

Ewing also came out of college as an absolute BEAST of a defender. His offense surprised alot of people, especially Hubie Brown-who said in the NBA Ewing's offense was better than his defense at first.
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rvhoss
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10/7/2006  7:19 AM
tomverve, as an actuarial systems architect, I agree with your explanation and must say, was impressed as well.

Still, there are some people here hell bent on finding some way to keep our best player out of the starting lineup.

Some try to blame francis, others supe up lee.

But reading the names next to the posts, it's pretty obvious that Frye should start.

Islesfat, great post, I was shocked and amazed by it. Way to go baby.

Did fish say he accepts jjfat...we're making progress as a group.

Until our next session...good bye.
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rvhoss
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10/7/2006  7:19 AM
i think frye will have more (atleast as many) titles.
Posted by joec32033:
Its like saying after we drafted Patrick Ewing, he should come off the bench because he would be better in the second unit because he was more defensive minded, etc.

Frye is no Ewing. Frye probably won't be as good at the end of his career as Ewing was when he first came out of college.

Ewing also came out of college as an absolute BEAST of a defender. His offense surprised alot of people, especially Hubie Brown-who said in the NBA Ewing's offense was better than his defense at first.

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King1
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10/7/2006  9:05 AM
I am saying Frye should start, but he will be more effective when he is on the floor with Jamal and Q, instead of Francis and Steph.
rvhoss
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10/7/2006  9:31 AM
I agree.
but there are just as many questions with Q as there are with Marbury. however, the questions with Q revolve around health and production and with marbury it's attitude.

I'm of the opinion marbury's questions will be easier to address this coming season.
Posted by King1:

I am saying Frye should start, but he will be more effective when he is on the floor with Jamal and Q, instead of Francis and Steph.

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Silverfuel
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10/7/2006  10:19 AM
Posted by King1:

I am saying Frye should start, but he will be more effective when he is on the floor with Jamal and Q, instead of Francis and Steph.
From every post, it seems like Francis is the real problem here. I think someone said this already but is there anyway Isiah will bring Francis off the bench with the 2nd team? That might actually work pretty well.
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Why I think having Frye on the first team will hurt his development

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