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oohah
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9/24/2006  6:52 AM
Oohah has shown that it is not ALWAYS the case, but in teams where he has had to rebuild from the ground up, this IS the case.

I can only identify 3 teams in LB's career (outside of the Knicks) where LB was thrust into a rebuilding situation:

I think you'll find the situations where LB was truly rebuilding were not that many and in some cases had interesting results that do not support the LB second year hypothesis.

1982 Nets: You might say that he was rebuilding with the Nets, but he had them over .500 in his first year there, so that contradicts the LB first year bad theory.

1989 San Antonio: He may have been rebuilding in San Antonio, but the biggest reason for the turnaround was acquired before LB got there: David Robinson Served 2 years in the Navy after being drafted before he entered the NBA. I remember that season very clearly. I posit that David top 50 ever Robinson was the true catalyst for LB's second year turnaround with SA.

1998 Philly: He was rebuilding with Philly, but they were worse (28 wins) in his second year there than they were is his first (31 wins).

With the Clippers it is debateable whether or not they were starting a rebuild with LB, if you look at their record he joined sort of mid-rebuild. In any case his first half season with them he was .657 and his first full season he was .500.

oohah

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rvhoss
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9/24/2006  7:16 AM
was 98 the strike year?
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Solace
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9/24/2006  8:09 AM
Posted by oohah:
Oohah has shown that it is not ALWAYS the case, but in teams where he has had to rebuild from the ground up, this IS the case.

I can only identify 3 teams in LB's career (outside of the Knicks) where LB was thrust into a rebuilding situation:

I think you'll find the situations where LB was truly rebuilding were not that many and in some cases had interesting results that do not support the LB second year hypothesis.

1982 Nets: You might say that he was rebuilding with the Nets, but he had them over .500 in his first year there, so that contradicts the LB first year bad theory.

1989 San Antonio: He may have been rebuilding in San Antonio, but the biggest reason for the turnaround was acquired before LB got there: David Robinson Served 2 years in the Navy after being drafted before he entered the NBA. I remember that season very clearly. I posit that David top 50 ever Robinson was the true catalyst for LB's second year turnaround with SA.

1998 Philly: He was rebuilding with Philly, but they were worse (28 wins) in his second year there than they were is his first (31 wins).

With the Clippers it is debateable whether or not they were starting a rebuild with LB, if you look at their record he joined sort of mid-rebuild. In any case his first half season with them he was .657 and his first full season he was .500.

oohah

Posted by rvhoss:

was 98 the strike year?

Good catch, RV. I'll give oohah the benefit of the doubt and say it was an honest mistake. The Sixers turned from a .378 team to a .560 team, so you have to give LB some credit for that, no?
Wishing everyone well. I enjoyed posting here for a while, but as I matured I realized this forum isn't for me. We all evolve. Thanks for the memories everyone.
wsdm
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9/24/2006  8:20 AM
Posted by Solace:
Posted by oohah:
Oohah has shown that it is not ALWAYS the case, but in teams where he has had to rebuild from the ground up, this IS the case.

I can only identify 3 teams in LB's career (outside of the Knicks) where LB was thrust into a rebuilding situation:

I think you'll find the situations where LB was truly rebuilding were not that many and in some cases had interesting results that do not support the LB second year hypothesis.

1982 Nets: You might say that he was rebuilding with the Nets, but he had them over .500 in his first year there, so that contradicts the LB first year bad theory.

1989 San Antonio: He may have been rebuilding in San Antonio, but the biggest reason for the turnaround was acquired before LB got there: David Robinson Served 2 years in the Navy after being drafted before he entered the NBA. I remember that season very clearly. I posit that David top 50 ever Robinson was the true catalyst for LB's second year turnaround with SA.

1998 Philly: He was rebuilding with Philly, but they were worse (28 wins) in his second year there than they were is his first (31 wins).

With the Clippers it is debateable whether or not they were starting a rebuild with LB, if you look at their record he joined sort of mid-rebuild. In any case his first half season with them he was .657 and his first full season he was .500.

oohah

Posted by rvhoss:

was 98 the strike year?

Good catch, RV. I'll give oohah the benefit of the doubt and say it was an honest mistake. The Sixers turned from a .378 team to a .560 team, so you have to give LB some credit for that, no?
The point is his career record does not support the "bad first year" hypothesis that's being used to justify last year. You'd expect 50% of his teams to be better in the 2nd than the 1st season purely by chance. He's nowhere near being above that chance level and nowhere near justifying the bad first year claims.

[Edited by - wsdm on 09-24-2006 08:21 AM]
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BlueSeats
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9/24/2006  11:01 AM
It's not so much that he has "bad first years", it's that his teams typically struggle with him the first year - he's so detail oriented that they can't see the forest through the trees, so to speak - and then something kicks in (usually later in that first year) and then they start gaining momentum, sometimes to great effect.

I maintain we would have fit that formula too, once Marbury stopped dogging games hwere it not for him getting hurt, AD getting suspended/traded, the harasment suit filed, and Francis and Jalen being acquired. And it would have come sooner than it did too had Starbust been a more compliant subject.
wsdm
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9/24/2006  11:02 AM
It's not so much that he has "bad first years", it's that his teams typically struggle with him the first year
I'm don't follow the distinction. What do you mean by struggle?
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joec32033
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9/24/2006  11:15 AM
Posted by BlueSeats:

It's not so much that he has "bad first years", it's that his teams typically struggle with him the first year - he's so detail oriented that they can't see the forest through the trees, so to speak - and then something kicks in (usually later in that first year) and then they start gaining momentum, sometimes to great effect.

I maintain we would have fit that formula too, once Marbury stopped dogging games hwere it not for him getting hurt, AD getting suspended/traded, the harasment suit filed, and Francis and Jalen being acquired. And it would have come sooner than it did too had Starbust been a more compliant subject.

Preach Brotha, I gotta find that post I wrote up with his first year teams. Martin and Andrew I couldreally use a SEARCH feature right now!
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BlueSeats
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9/24/2006  11:21 AM
Posted by wsdm:
It's not so much that he has "bad first years", it's that his teams typically struggle with him the first year
I'm don't follow the distinction. What do you mean by struggle?


Lets (arbitrarily) say it takes most teams half a season before Brown's teachings take hold and the teams integrate them into team play as a unit.

Just how bad that first years record will be will depend on how much their record suffered during that half season, and how much ground they could make up in the second half of the season. Some of his teams had kick-ass second halfs that ameliorated the slow starts. if i recall correctly his clippers team was like that (don't hold me to it having been them). In contrast his Piston's team, who will tell you to a man they struggled, really didn't get off to a slow start, probably because his lineups and methodology wasn't all that different than Carlisle's, but boy were they tough in the playoffs (held tight I might add by a PG who knew WHEN to score.)

So all I'm really saying is that many of Brown's team struggle under him "at first." for some teams that means 20 games, some it means 40, and for others it means the entire season. But no team but ours never got him and never reaped the benifits of his teachings.
nixluva
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9/24/2006  12:46 PM
Its hard to use the Pistions in any of these discussions. Detroit was a 50 win team already and don't forget that LB got a BIG break when Dumars got him Rasheed. That move is the single biggest reason for the Pistons being able to win a title and make a 2nd trip to the finals. It may well be that Carlisle could've done the same thing if he had Rasheed. In 2002 they went 50-32 and lost in the East Conf. Semis. In 2003 they also went 50-32, but lost in the East Conf. Finals. In 2004 under LB, they went 54-28 and won the NBA Finals. In 2005 they also went 54-28 but lost in the NBA Finals. When you look at the progression it makes sense. I wouldn't say that LB was the biggest reason they won 4 more games and an NBA title. Rasheed could easily be considered the biggest improvement to that team. Last year they lost in the East Finals, not because of Flip, but just remember that they've never had a huge edge over the other top teams. They had to tough out their wins. They also were very fortunate that the Lakers were having major internal problems. The Next year they again fought tough, but with LB's antics I believe they were a little less focused. Mental Error brought them down. LB to me helps bad teams more than he does good teams. In comparison, Phil Jackson REALLY helps good teams, but I don't think he could build up a bad team as well as LB.

I think that LB's record is his worst enemy. It shows that its very unlikely that he would have such a bad result as he did this year, UNLESS he somehow did things differently. I and MANY professionals believe he tanked the season. His own record works against him in this regard.
nyk4ever
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9/24/2006  12:49 PM
Posted by nixluva:

I and MANY professionals believe he tanked the season. His own record works against him in this regard.

What the hell? Big man, now all the sudden is the authority on basketball.

What other professionals feel he tanked? Don't give me some newspaper reporters either, I want some real names. Give me some executives, some other coaches, some players. I want names.
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Marv
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9/24/2006  12:49 PM
look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water. then isiah added jalen and franchise. we all know where it went from there.

but i gotta wonder how different things might be right now. larry, steph and isiah collectively screwed the pooch once we lost our winning formula. but things might have been an injury and a bizarre family situation away from actually having worked out in our favor for once.
joec32033
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9/24/2006  12:55 PM
Its hard to use the Pistions in any of these discussions. Detroit was a 50 win team already and don't forget that LB got a BIG break when Dumars got him Rasheed. That move is the single biggest reason for the Pistons being able to win a title and make a 2nd trip to the finals. It may well be that Carlisle could've done the same thing if he had Rasheed.

Come Nix, when Rasheed was traded to the Pistons, people wondered what the hell they were doing because of Rasheed's attitude. That above statement is a case of 20/20 hindsight. Sheed is a HUGE part of what happened as you said, but it wasn't as cut and dry that he was gonna improve the Pistons the way he did, as you are implying.
In 2004 under LB, they went 54-28 and won the NBA Finals. In 2005 they also went 54-28 but lost in the NBA Finals. When you look at the progression it makes sense. I wouldn't say that LB was the biggest reason they won 4 more games and an NBA title. Rasheed could easily be considered the biggest improvement to that team. Last year they lost in the East Finals, not because of Flip, but just remember that they've never had a huge edge over the other top teams. They had to tough out their wins. They also were very fortunate that the Lakers were having major internal problems. The Next year they again fought tough, but with LB's antics I believe they were a little less focused. Mental Error brought them down. LB to me helps bad teams more than he does good teams. In comparison, Phil Jackson REALLY helps good teams, but I don't think he could build up a bad team as well as LB.

I think that LB's record is his worst enemy. It shows that its very unlikely that he would have such a bad result as he did this year, UNLESS he somehow did things differently. I and MANY professionals believe he tanked the season. His own record works against him in this regard.

This is dripping with conjecture. You can't improve on a championship . The fact that the Pistons had the same record when they really didn't "sneak up" on anyone as they sort of did the year before says alot.

The fact that they disappointed this year "wasn't because of Flip" is totally subjective. My opinion is the Pistons forgot who they were and what made them champions. They were built as a defensive team that can score. Flip tried to turn them into an offensive team who could play D, he alienated his cornerstone enough(Ben Wallace) that the guy left, there was more drama in 2 months with the Pistons under Flip than there was under 2 years of Brown and that includes the last 3 months of his tenure where he was GIVEN PERMISSION to talk to Cleveland(otherwise, don't you think the Pistons would have filed tampering charges?).

Even the players (Chauncy, Ben, Rasheed) complained that the Pistons forgot who they were and what got them to the chmapionship.
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BlueSeats
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9/24/2006  1:43 PM
Posted by nixluva:

Its hard to use the Pistions in any of these discussions. Detroit was a 50 win team already and don't forget that LB got a BIG break when Dumars got him Rasheed. That move is the single biggest reason for the Pistons being able to win a title and make a 2nd trip to the finals. It may well be that Carlisle could've done the same thing if he had Rasheed. In 2002 they went 50-32 and lost in the East Conf. Semis. In 2003 they also went 50-32, but lost in the East Conf. Finals. In 2004 under LB, they went 54-28 and won the NBA Finals. In 2005 they also went 54-28 but lost in the NBA Finals. When you look at the progression it makes sense. I wouldn't say that LB was the biggest reason they won 4 more games and an NBA title. Rasheed could easily be considered the biggest improvement to that team. Last year they lost in the East Finals, not because of Flip, but just remember that they've never had a huge edge over the other top teams. They had to tough out their wins. They also were very fortunate that the Lakers were having major internal problems. The Next year they again fought tough, but with LB's antics I believe they were a little less focused. Mental Error brought them down. LB to me helps bad teams more than he does good teams. In comparison, Phil Jackson REALLY helps good teams, but I don't think he could build up a bad team as well as LB.

I think that LB's record is his worst enemy. It shows that its very unlikely that he would have such a bad result as he did this year, UNLESS he somehow did things differently. I and MANY professionals believe he tanked the season. His own record works against him in this regard.


All this may be true, but it's coincidental to my point, which was most teams struggle with brown in the beginning and then turn it up after his teachings click in.

Now one can argue that the Pistons were on course with destiny to become champions, with or without brown, but I don't think championships come so easily. I like Carlisle as a coach, and he may have been able to take them there, but he wasn't allowed to. Davidson and Dumars are always cast as the benevolent patrons of good will in Detroit, but they DUMPED Carlisle for Brown at the first available opportunity. No loyalty there. And you just don't hear the same respect or reverence for him from those Pistons players as you do about Brown (or I've not anyway.) At a minimum one has to give Brown credit for wanting Sheed desperately and knowing how best to utilize him.

And it's easy to say that it's not Flip's fault the Piston's were less successful in the post season but I dispute that. First of all, that great regular season offense was devolving into rushing and chucking in the playoffs. They looked nothing like the poised, confident and methodical machine we had come to know under brown. And they were openly questioning his approach and leadership during the playoffs. The players were openly questioning the wisdom of changing their focus from defense to offense. Sheed was rarely in the post anymore, instead launching from the perimeter in the way Garnett's critics also assail him for in his post seasons under Flip. And Big Ben actually went to Chicago and specified he wanted a tougher style of coaching!!! It's not every veteran who wants to play the season from the massage table or between the 3pt lines.

So yes, Sheed helped. Carlisle may have had continued success but the players didn't love him and management FIRED him so as to sign Brown. Brown was instrumental in bringing out their best and the players generally revered him. Brown had unquestionable success in his two seasons there. But some believe he felt insecure there, that Davidson and Dumars were eager to flip him for Flip the way they did Carlisle for him, so he entertained other offers. Then Flip came in and had good regular season success but with a style that many believed would not serve them as well in the post season, which proved to be true. The players questioned his strategy, chemistry broke down, his future even seemed uncertain, they lost a key core player (Ben) who happened to dislike him, and now it's anybody's guess how elite their future will be. All in one season without LB.

And look at how Philly has unraveled without Brown. They even brought in cheeks to try to revive them because he's a Brown disciple. I think the argument could be made their present incarnation is a more "talented" squad than what Brown took to the finals, what with AI, Webber, Iggy, Dally, and Korver, yet their mired in perpetual 30-something win seasons. And it's no coincidence that guys like Snow, Ratliff, and McKie, who were instrumental in Philly's success under Brown have shown up as nobodies for the rest of their careers.


[Edited by - blueSeats on 09-24-2006 1:54 PM]
wsdm
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9/24/2006  3:35 PM
Posted by Marv:

look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water.
Larry sure didn't help things when he messed with what was working and took Lee and Nate out of the SL and started giving Frye inconsistent minutes. But heck, at least we got to watch Malik start and get his spin moves blocked.

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BlueSeats
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9/24/2006  3:43 PM
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by Marv:

look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water.
Larry sure didn't help things when he messed with what was working and took Lee and Nate out of the SL and started giving Frye inconsistent minutes. But heck, at least we got to watch Malik start and get his spin moves blocked.

He stayed with lee and nate until it was clear it wasn't working, Then francis and rose were brought in to further confuse the situation. And Malik got less minuets than any of Frye, Lee or Nate, and really only racked up starts when AD was gone and Frye was hurt.

wsdm
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9/24/2006  4:35 PM
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by Marv:

look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water.
Larry sure didn't help things when he messed with what was working and took Lee and Nate out of the SL and started giving Frye inconsistent minutes. But heck, at least we got to watch Malik start and get his spin moves blocked.

He stayed with lee and nate until it was clear it wasn't working, Then francis and rose were brought in to further confuse the situation. And Malik got less minuets than any of Frye, Lee or Nate, and really only racked up starts when AD was gone and Frye was hurt.
Too bad he didn't stop going to Malik once it was clear that was working far worse than playing Lee or Frye was.
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martin
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9/24/2006  5:13 PM
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by Marv:

look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water.
Larry sure didn't help things when he messed with what was working and took Lee and Nate out of the SL and started giving Frye inconsistent minutes. But heck, at least we got to watch Malik start and get his spin moves blocked.

He stayed with lee and nate until it was clear it wasn't working, Then francis and rose were brought in to further confuse the situation. And Malik got less minuets than any of Frye, Lee or Nate, and really only racked up starts when AD was gone and Frye was hurt.
Too bad he didn't stop going to Malik once it was clear that was working far worse than playing Lee or Frye was.

tell me, who were the defenders who knew how to play team D and rotate and be floor leaders after AD was gone?
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BlueSeats
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9/24/2006  5:18 PM
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by Marv:

look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water.
Larry sure didn't help things when he messed with what was working and took Lee and Nate out of the SL and started giving Frye inconsistent minutes. But heck, at least we got to watch Malik start and get his spin moves blocked.

He stayed with lee and nate until it was clear it wasn't working, Then francis and rose were brought in to further confuse the situation. And Malik got less minuets than any of Frye, Lee or Nate, and really only racked up starts when AD was gone and Frye was hurt.
Too bad he didn't stop going to Malik once it was clear that was working far worse than playing Lee or Frye was.

As evidenced by WHAT exactly?

The team as starving for defense and leadership and that's what he was leaning on AD and Malik for.
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9/24/2006  5:32 PM
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by wsdm:
Posted by Marv:

look we'll never know what wouild have happend, but it did seem like all were on the same page till marbs got hurt and ad went into the stands. larry seemed to have the right formula down, and don't forgtet it included starting nate at the 2 and dlee at the 3. marbs played great and he and larry were synching. curry played by far his best ball because ad was playing more llike a center on the boards and eddy got to do his cherry-picking off of that. plus he had dlee's strong rebounding at the 3. the rotation was much tighter, with craw and frye excelling off the bench and trevor giving productive minutes. even the stubborn larry was sticking with this formula, and it was working. but scratch steph and ad and it all fell apart. reenter a physically-limited stteph into a now-losing atmosphere, and he and larry turned into oil and water.
Larry sure didn't help things when he messed with what was working and took Lee and Nate out of the SL and started giving Frye inconsistent minutes. But heck, at least we got to watch Malik start and get his spin moves blocked.

He stayed with lee and nate until it was clear it wasn't working, Then francis and rose were brought in to further confuse the situation. And Malik got less minuets than any of Frye, Lee or Nate, and really only racked up starts when AD was gone and Frye was hurt.
Too bad he didn't stop going to Malik once it was clear that was working far worse than playing Lee or Frye was.

As evidenced by WHAT exactly?

a) Malik is a 6'4" PF with no basketball abilities;
b) he has one of the worst +/- figures in the league (i.e., few players in the entire league hurt their teams more every time they step onto the court).


[Edited by - wsdm on 09-24-2006 5:52 PM]
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rvhoss
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9/24/2006  5:52 PM
It's the LB myth that he has a rough first year then a rebound second year, but that is more because he is an evaluator and not so much a "coach".

He does great with great teams, does lousy with lousy teams.

Knicks...they are a great team "on paper", but chemistry (new faces, roster turnover) led to them having issues in areas other than basketball.

These issues led to his downfall.

However, LB is like that consulting firm you bring in to righ your company ship, they evaluate, evaluate, evaluate, and then determine who stays and who goes.

At that point, if you decide to keep the consulting team on, you are going to follow their advice, however, if you decide that the consulting team was not worth the money, you get rid of them...but you can still follow their advice.

All of the moves of the summer indicate that LB was correct in his assessment of the team...why should he not be, he's been around forever.

But his drastic cuts were something you would advise to a smaller market franchise with no gate or advertising revenue.

This being the biggest media market in the world, his hard stance on Marbury IMHO was his undoing.
Posted by wsdm:
It's not so much that he has "bad first years", it's that his teams typically struggle with him the first year
I'm don't follow the distinction. What do you mean by struggle?



[Edited by - rvhoss on 09-24-2006 5:56 PM]
all kool aid all the time.
53 mill, c'mon!

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