Bonn1997 wrote:Actually, the reason there's almost no correlation between payroll and wins is that when people (including GMs) just use their blind intuition about players' effectiveness, they're lost.

Stats of course are used but intution is part of the equation. Relying solely on a spreadsheet has never worked.

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Actually, the reason there's almost no correlation between payroll and wins is that when people (including GMs) just use their blind intuition about players' effectiveness, they're lost.

Stats of course are used but intution is part of the equation. Relying solely on a spreadsheet has never worked.

mrKnickShot wrote:

tkf wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

knickscity wrote:

Uptown wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:He's the leading scorer on a team doing very well. Rightly or wrongly, if that continues, he will definitely get MVP consideration. I've never disputed that. The MVP voting is usually distributed simply among the top scorers on each of the 3 or 5 top teams in the league.

He's not on the list because he's the leading scorer on a team doing very well. He's there because he's the best player on a team doing very well.

Clippers have Jamal Crawford and Blake Griffin who are scoring more points than Chris Paul, but Paul is the one in the MVP race.

The sooner you understand that its about the impact guys have rather than points, the better.

oh, we understand that.. but it is a combination of things, because if we talk impact with the knicks, then jason kidd has to be in the mix then...

Yea, because 8 PPG and 3 APG is deserving of an MVP award.

you said impact right? does kidd not have a huge impact on this team? maybe the biggest so far? so really it is a combination of things.. which is why bonn mentioned that he is leading scorer and mainly why you and a few others may feel he should get a look at mvp... if we are looking at impact, I think jason kidd impact has been larger this year..

8 and 3 can only impact your team so much. Sure, he's been a nice impact. He brings tremendous leadership, something that cannot be measured by statistics.

But you have to put up numbers for this award. It's the most prestigious single season award.

This is why guys like Jordan, Malone, Bryant, etc. have won it.

8 and 3 are role players numbers son. Not MVP.

YOU ARE NOT FOLLOWING... bonn said carmelo is being considered because he leads the team in scoring.. you said,it was because he was the best player on the team and then pointed out impact moreso than numbers... but what I am trying to tell you is that carmelo's impact is probably no more than kidds at this point, so if he is going to get any recognition it will be because of his numbers and that just won't be enough because he is not on par with the likes of durant and lebron..

I am not saying kidd will win mvp bro....

If Carmelo's impact hasn't been more than Kidd's, why is Kidd not on any MVP candidates list?

lol this is too easy.

you are lost... candidates list.. dude these made up list are not official. there are two real candidates... carmela isn't one of them.....

Comments like this just show that you cant be objective when discussing Melo.

Nah, comments like that just shows how much basketball common sense he doesn't have.

Kidd is a role player, a very good one though, Melo is the best player on the team.

The Knicks can win games without Kidd, they can't win squat over a season without Melo, not the way the team is built.

well then that tells you that the team is not built well...

want to talk basketball sense, only a few of the homers here are talking mvp after 4 games.. as if durant and lebron retired... you not only lack baskeball sense, but league pass.. try watching other games for a change..

one need only look at the heat-spurs game, splitter et. al. notwithstanding, to see the difference between a genuine mvp candidate and carmelo. even if the voting is somewhat whimsical and subjective there is no mistaking lbj's performance.

i think as the years go by even the most thick-headed voters have to look at the ability to make others better as the deciding factor over and above mere scoring ability or the sophomoric approach of "best player on the winningest team" that seems to characterize the latter-day stern era fanbase.

Are you agreeing with tkf that the team is built wrong or are you just commenting on the mvp process? I think you could give lbj the mvp every year and make a great argument that he deserved it. Same thing with MJ and Shaq for several years. people should take a look at some of the numbers mike jordan was putting up while being nominated defensive player of the year or all-nba defensive team.

last things first: lbj should win the mvp every year and is there really any argument against this, other than falsely spreading the wealth or kowtowing to whimsy and subjectivity ? yes no question shaq and mj and before that magic and bird. include duncan and hakeem while we're at it. only injury should preclude any of them winning. others here apparently disagree with me but what do they all have in common above all else?: they make/made others better.

as to the first issue my answer is "both." i don't know if it is necessary to go into what our thoughts are as to whether the team is built wrong. but just for the record... i don't believe we have built a champion here and that gnaws at me. and it gnaws at me because i believe walsh had a genuine plan to build a champion. and that plan and the man behind it were swept aside for reasons i don't approve of, as i felt it was done in violation of my values.

very well said.. i have had several conversations with other posters off site, and honestly since the changes some of them feel the same way both of us do... the last sentence hit the nail on the head for me...

My understanding of the plan was clear cap to sign lbj and another free agent. Can either of you expand on this championship plan that existed after he missed out on lbj and how it was foiled?

understanding? the point is the majority of the fanbase has projected this "understanding" onto the transaction. i gave my account of a logical plan in a subsequent post to this one. hence my heavy lifting is over.

now it is your turn to tell me what the plan was once they acquired melo in the manner that they did?

the easier answer would be "they didn't have a plan" but somehow i think i am going to hear the harder answer....

the knicks, once they had been duped, fell back on the only choice they had, especially when d'antoni had already been paying his two years of dues with successive roster flush seasons. we conveniently forget that he had to endure two seasons of guaranteed shyte. so in a rare instance of where commerce and public relations ought to trump a more patient approach, they sign stoudemire july 9th. they had to do it. could walsh have opted to pass and keep the team without a "franchise face?" no he could not have. he came on to achieve two years of demolition to be in a place of building around the only player worth trading a a team for. when that plan is dashed you alter strategy and go with amare.

now from there walsh had the right idea: try to sign a point guard to audition for two years until chris paul becomes available, or else get the best possible point guard available. stoudemire wanted ridnour... i am not sure he was wrong. instead they acquired felton. ho-hum. two year-audition on a dirt cheap contract.

and in terms of rebuilding these are the initial/catalyzing first step and it's natural second step, which by nature must be best at complementing the first step, are what the knicks had here initially.

what happened next went against the next logical step in a logical plan. dolan stepped in.

instead of getting a complementary third piece they traded for a redundant second second piece. free agency could have been acceptable if somewhat repugnant. but no more than that.

from there things go awry, and frankly it offends me-- like an unruly relative or a bad presidential candidate.

Is this the plan that you are referring to? Wait two years for Chris Paul? Two years out and Amare's career might be over. And the reality with that is that his career has followed the timeline expectancy for guys with microfracture surgery. I disagree with all the steps you are taking. The Knicks traded away essentially an unprotected first round pick and their lottery pick to be in the game for a second star. Walsh was in a compromised position in every deal he did because the other gms knew what his goal was. Maybe he got tired of giving away everything including the kitchen sink in every trade and decided to put his foot down with Denver. Whatever. If you can get a franchise player that is going crosstown if you don't do you not pull the trigger because you want to keep Moz, Felton? Maybe if you still have your picks but you moved those to have cap space so you have to do the deal. As far as the coach being the loyal soldier that needed to be rewarded I call bs on that. Guy had a huge contract and took his second year off.

As far as my plan goes I don't think I could have executed a better one than Grunwald. Of course the Knicks could have saved their amnesty and gotten the cap space and amnestied Amare but then he never would have been ther to fulfill Walsh's championship plan b.

the plan you see lacks a certain dimension in that it does not include a spiral upward by constantly replacing the player with his best possible successor. you keep a sense of cohesion and continuity that way. at the time that was upgrading at point guard over felton.

and what if amare self-destructs? we would have had lots of candidates to replace his skills for pick and rolls or an occasional elbow play. the last thing you do is load up on a player who is redundant and compound the matter by disposing of solid rotation players? you hold on to felton for another season and unload him or put him in a trade for an upgrade over himself.

the fact that they can't coexist PROVES that they are REDUNDANT.

Every asset the Knicks could trade was traded and Amare did break down. It was his back but D'Antoni rode him like secretariat. If point guard was the position to target why did the Knicks spend most of that season targeting Melo? There were reports out that Walsh didn't even know DWill was available. The solid rotation players you talk about were all that was left after the McGrady trade so you had to move something. Also, Knicks lost some solid rotation players this past season and they were able to replace them. You can replace rotation players but there are only about 10-15 franchise guys in the league. The Knicks have one.

i am going to familiarize you with my take on this "riding a player like he was Secratariat" stuff. i just plain disagree with this accounting. stoudemire was essentially an isolation player. just look at the numbers that season and you will see his problem was he became an isolation player. and why? because the point guard is not up to the task.

56.5% TS which is just slightly better than average but nowhere close to 60-62% which is what you want from him. (not having a point guard good enough will do that to a player.)
31% USG is too high for a player with his limited playmaking skills.
more turnovers than assists lowers his effectiveness even more.
13.2% AST as i understand the stat is that he participated in an assisted play that resulted in a score for another player. not sure that is reliable but it was a jump from his time in phoenix, though once again... not nearly enough.

carmelo thus far

57.8% TS that is a very good number and a major ingredient to his being an effective player.
34.2% USG is astronomical and i mean that in a bad way. it MUST go down.
11.3% AST as i understand the stat is criminally low and conveys a certain level of selfishness that hurts a team in the long run. this stat MUST go up.

don't believe me? have a look at the ratio of these terms by dividing USG by AST and lets call it the "facilitating measure" or "FM" for short"

nash's 1:3 is on one end of the facilitating measure and with a 62% TS it makes him a special player-- on offense.
cp3 1:2 FM
kidd 1:2
magic 6:11
stockton 3:8
lin 2:3
pierce 1.45:1
lbj .93:1 notice the equilibrium here
bryant 1.33:1 which i find surprising
jordan 1.34:1
durant 2.16:1 which has been trending lower every year of his career. what saves him is his TS% IMO.
bird 1.07:1 notice the equilibrium here, along with lebrons.
dirk 2.07:1 for his career
stat 2.30:1
melo 1.97:1
wilkins 2.50:1
king 1.74:1
frazier .93:1 notice the equilibrium here again. it's part of what made frazier special, along with his sublime defensive skills
duncan 1.68:1
hakeem 2.24:1
barkely 1.42:1
erving 1.51:1
felton 1.17:1 and that is on the wrong side of the balance sheet right there
wade 1:1 and by this measure wade is a special player which means i may need to revise my opinion of his game for the better.

now here is the thing: this season melo's FM is a frightening 3:1. this is not what the knicks need.

Melo is a scorer so what does FM have to do with the price of tea in China?

Melo has never or ever will be a high assist guy but that doesn't mean he doesn't make the right pass. Does he always pass when he should? Nope in the same way he does not get credit for an assist on every pass.

The bottom line is that Melo is a scorer. At the end of the day I really don't care about sabermetrics just the amount of W's.

Seriously, what is the big deal with Melo being mentioned as a MVP candidate? I would think Knicks fans would be proud to have a MVP represent us. Is it that far fetched that if we finish the season as a #1 seed that Melo couldn't win it?

All I want is a big shiny gold top rounded trophy in Melo's hands at the end of the year.

the ratio for melo is far too skewed in the wrong direction if the team he plays on is to be successful in the long run. if you take a look at the ratios of other wing players, you will see a trend that the further away from equilibrium the player is, the less his teams win.

bird and lebron are near 1:1
wilkins is 2.5:1 with a 53.5% TS. those are losing numbers.
mcgrady and drexler are both close to 1:1 but if you see their TS% it hurts their teams.
melo is 2:1 for his career but 3:1 this year.

the price of tea in china just went up and it may cost the knicks an ECF appearance.

so if melo is to help his teams excel in the playoffs he needs to get that ratio as close to 1:1 as he can while getting his TS% closer to 60. he does that he helps his mvp chances and his team's chances of success.

look at his line today. lots of points but 55.7% TS is very mediocre. 2 assists and 4 turnovers.

we're winning now but what do you expect in a 7-game series against one of the legue's top 5 teams?

Sabermetrics doesn't win games, DEFENSE wins games.

That's a ridiculous false choice. How about this:
GPS don't get you to your destination; cars do.
Umbrellas don't keep you from getting wet; clothes do.
Airbags don't save lives; careful driving does.

Time to get rid of your GPSs, umbrellas, and airbags I guess.

fantastic post bonn!!

Yeah - coming from a huge Allen Iverson who btw was atrocious sabermetrically.

Whatever works dude - whatever works

LOLOLOLOLOL

more nerdy facts to be easily dismissed because apparently it is not important HOW you win:

iverson 1.1:1 but as with wilkins, mcgrady, and drexler his woeful 51%TS held his teams back.
marbury .70:1 with 52%TS
francis .88:1 with 53%TS
rose .82:1 with 53%TS
fisher .88:1 with 52%TS
westbrook .82:1 with 52%TS
felton 1.2:1 with 50%TS
holiday .78:1 with 52%TS

none of these players helped their teams in the roles they were supposed to have played as much as their acolytes believe them to have.

parker .79:1 with 55%TS and where his best years were around 58%-- and coincided with titles.
kevin johnson .58:1 with 59%TS just terrific
ridnour .64:1 with 52.1%TS but career-long trending upward. he was at 57%TS the year stoudemire wanted him here.

now to melo's counterparts:

dantley 2:1 with 62%TS
aguirre 1.71:1 with 54.2%TS
king 1.73:1 with 56.1%TS
schrempf 1.18:1 with 58.6%TS massively underrated

dk7th wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

tkf wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

knickscity wrote:

Uptown wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

tkf wrote:

JrZyHuStLa wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:He's the leading scorer on a team doing very well. Rightly or wrongly, if that continues, he will definitely get MVP consideration. I've never disputed that. The MVP voting is usually distributed simply among the top scorers on each of the 3 or 5 top teams in the league.

He's not on the list because he's the leading scorer on a team doing very well. He's there because he's the best player on a team doing very well.

Clippers have Jamal Crawford and Blake Griffin who are scoring more points than Chris Paul, but Paul is the one in the MVP race.

The sooner you understand that its about the impact guys have rather than points, the better.

oh, we understand that.. but it is a combination of things, because if we talk impact with the knicks, then jason kidd has to be in the mix then...

Yea, because 8 PPG and 3 APG is deserving of an MVP award.

you said impact right? does kidd not have a huge impact on this team? maybe the biggest so far? so really it is a combination of things.. which is why bonn mentioned that he is leading scorer and mainly why you and a few others may feel he should get a look at mvp... if we are looking at impact, I think jason kidd impact has been larger this year..

8 and 3 can only impact your team so much. Sure, he's been a nice impact. He brings tremendous leadership, something that cannot be measured by statistics.

But you have to put up numbers for this award. It's the most prestigious single season award.

This is why guys like Jordan, Malone, Bryant, etc. have won it.

8 and 3 are role players numbers son. Not MVP.

YOU ARE NOT FOLLOWING... bonn said carmelo is being considered because he leads the team in scoring.. you said,it was because he was the best player on the team and then pointed out impact moreso than numbers... but what I am trying to tell you is that carmelo's impact is probably no more than kidds at this point, so if he is going to get any recognition it will be because of his numbers and that just won't be enough because he is not on par with the likes of durant and lebron..

I am not saying kidd will win mvp bro....

If Carmelo's impact hasn't been more than Kidd's, why is Kidd not on any MVP candidates list?

lol this is too easy.

you are lost... candidates list.. dude these made up list are not official. there are two real candidates... carmela isn't one of them.....

Comments like this just show that you cant be objective when discussing Melo.

Nah, comments like that just shows how much basketball common sense he doesn't have.

Kidd is a role player, a very good one though, Melo is the best player on the team.

The Knicks can win games without Kidd, they can't win squat over a season without Melo, not the way the team is built.

well then that tells you that the team is not built well...

want to talk basketball sense, only a few of the homers here are talking mvp after 4 games.. as if durant and lebron retired... you not only lack baskeball sense, but league pass.. try watching other games for a change..

one need only look at the heat-spurs game, splitter et. al. notwithstanding, to see the difference between a genuine mvp candidate and carmelo. even if the voting is somewhat whimsical and subjective there is no mistaking lbj's performance.

i think as the years go by even the most thick-headed voters have to look at the ability to make others better as the deciding factor over and above mere scoring ability or the sophomoric approach of "best player on the winningest team" that seems to characterize the latter-day stern era fanbase.

Are you agreeing with tkf that the team is built wrong or are you just commenting on the mvp process? I think you could give lbj the mvp every year and make a great argument that he deserved it. Same thing with MJ and Shaq for several years. people should take a look at some of the numbers mike jordan was putting up while being nominated defensive player of the year or all-nba defensive team.

last things first: lbj should win the mvp every year and is there really any argument against this, other than falsely spreading the wealth or kowtowing to whimsy and subjectivity ? yes no question shaq and mj and before that magic and bird. include duncan and hakeem while we're at it. only injury should preclude any of them winning. others here apparently disagree with me but what do they all have in common above all else?: they make/made others better.

as to the first issue my answer is "both." i don't know if it is necessary to go into what our thoughts are as to whether the team is built wrong. but just for the record... i don't believe we have built a champion here and that gnaws at me. and it gnaws at me because i believe walsh had a genuine plan to build a champion. and that plan and the man behind it were swept aside for reasons i don't approve of, as i felt it was done in violation of my values.

very well said.. i have had several conversations with other posters off site, and honestly since the changes some of them feel the same way both of us do... the last sentence hit the nail on the head for me...

My understanding of the plan was clear cap to sign lbj and another free agent. Can either of you expand on this championship plan that existed after he missed out on lbj and how it was foiled?

understanding? the point is the majority of the fanbase has projected this "understanding" onto the transaction. i gave my account of a logical plan in a subsequent post to this one. hence my heavy lifting is over.

now it is your turn to tell me what the plan was once they acquired melo in the manner that they did?

the easier answer would be "they didn't have a plan" but somehow i think i am going to hear the harder answer....

the knicks, once they had been duped, fell back on the only choice they had, especially when d'antoni had already been paying his two years of dues with successive roster flush seasons. we conveniently forget that he had to endure two seasons of guaranteed shyte. so in a rare instance of where commerce and public relations ought to trump a more patient approach, they sign stoudemire july 9th. they had to do it. could walsh have opted to pass and keep the team without a "franchise face?" no he could not have. he came on to achieve two years of demolition to be in a place of building around the only player worth trading a a team for. when that plan is dashed you alter strategy and go with amare.

now from there walsh had the right idea: try to sign a point guard to audition for two years until chris paul becomes available, or else get the best possible point guard available. stoudemire wanted ridnour... i am not sure he was wrong. instead they acquired felton. ho-hum. two year-audition on a dirt cheap contract.

and in terms of rebuilding these are the initial/catalyzing first step and it's natural second step, which by nature must be best at complementing the first step, are what the knicks had here initially.

what happened next went against the next logical step in a logical plan. dolan stepped in.

instead of getting a complementary third piece they traded for a redundant second second piece. free agency could have been acceptable if somewhat repugnant. but no more than that.

from there things go awry, and frankly it offends me-- like an unruly relative or a bad presidential candidate.

Is this the plan that you are referring to? Wait two years for Chris Paul? Two years out and Amare's career might be over. And the reality with that is that his career has followed the timeline expectancy for guys with microfracture surgery. I disagree with all the steps you are taking. The Knicks traded away essentially an unprotected first round pick and their lottery pick to be in the game for a second star. Walsh was in a compromised position in every deal he did because the other gms knew what his goal was. Maybe he got tired of giving away everything including the kitchen sink in every trade and decided to put his foot down with Denver. Whatever. If you can get a franchise player that is going crosstown if you don't do you not pull the trigger because you want to keep Moz, Felton? Maybe if you still have your picks but you moved those to have cap space so you have to do the deal. As far as the coach being the loyal soldier that needed to be rewarded I call bs on that. Guy had a huge contract and took his second year off.

As far as my plan goes I don't think I could have executed a better one than Grunwald. Of course the Knicks could have saved their amnesty and gotten the cap space and amnestied Amare but then he never would have been ther to fulfill Walsh's championship plan b.

the plan you see lacks a certain dimension in that it does not include a spiral upward by constantly replacing the player with his best possible successor. you keep a sense of cohesion and continuity that way. at the time that was upgrading at point guard over felton.

and what if amare self-destructs? we would have had lots of candidates to replace his skills for pick and rolls or an occasional elbow play. the last thing you do is load up on a player who is redundant and compound the matter by disposing of solid rotation players? you hold on to felton for another season and unload him or put him in a trade for an upgrade over himself.

the fact that they can't coexist PROVES that they are REDUNDANT.

Every asset the Knicks could trade was traded and Amare did break down. It was his back but D'Antoni rode him like secretariat. If point guard was the position to target why did the Knicks spend most of that season targeting Melo? There were reports out that Walsh didn't even know DWill was available. The solid rotation players you talk about were all that was left after the McGrady trade so you had to move something. Also, Knicks lost some solid rotation players this past season and they were able to replace them. You can replace rotation players but there are only about 10-15 franchise guys in the league. The Knicks have one.

i am going to familiarize you with my take on this "riding a player like he was Secratariat" stuff. i just plain disagree with this accounting. stoudemire was essentially an isolation player. just look at the numbers that season and you will see his problem was he became an isolation player. and why? because the point guard is not up to the task.

56.5% TS which is just slightly better than average but nowhere close to 60-62% which is what you want from him. (not having a point guard good enough will do that to a player.)
31% USG is too high for a player with his limited playmaking skills.
more turnovers than assists lowers his effectiveness even more.
13.2% AST as i understand the stat is that he participated in an assisted play that resulted in a score for another player. not sure that is reliable but it was a jump from his time in phoenix, though once again... not nearly enough.

carmelo thus far

57.8% TS that is a very good number and a major ingredient to his being an effective player.
34.2% USG is astronomical and i mean that in a bad way. it MUST go down.
11.3% AST as i understand the stat is criminally low and conveys a certain level of selfishness that hurts a team in the long run. this stat MUST go up.

don't believe me? have a look at the ratio of these terms by dividing USG by AST and lets call it the "facilitating measure" or "FM" for short"

nash's 1:3 is on one end of the facilitating measure and with a 62% TS it makes him a special player-- on offense.
cp3 1:2 FM
kidd 1:2
magic 6:11
stockton 3:8
lin 2:3
pierce 1.45:1
lbj .93:1 notice the equilibrium here
bryant 1.33:1 which i find surprising
jordan 1.34:1
durant 2.16:1 which has been trending lower every year of his career. what saves him is his TS% IMO.
bird 1.07:1 notice the equilibrium here, along with lebrons.
dirk 2.07:1 for his career
stat 2.30:1
melo 1.97:1
wilkins 2.50:1
king 1.74:1
frazier .93:1 notice the equilibrium here again. it's part of what made frazier special, along with his sublime defensive skills
duncan 1.68:1
hakeem 2.24:1
barkely 1.42:1
erving 1.51:1
felton 1.17:1 and that is on the wrong side of the balance sheet right there
wade 1:1 and by this measure wade is a special player which means i may need to revise my opinion of his game for the better.

now here is the thing: this season melo's FM is a frightening 3:1. this is not what the knicks need.

Melo is a scorer so what does FM have to do with the price of tea in China?

Melo has never or ever will be a high assist guy but that doesn't mean he doesn't make the right pass. Does he always pass when he should? Nope in the same way he does not get credit for an assist on every pass.

The bottom line is that Melo is a scorer. At the end of the day I really don't care about sabermetrics just the amount of W's.

Seriously, what is the big deal with Melo being mentioned as a MVP candidate? I would think Knicks fans would be proud to have a MVP represent us. Is it that far fetched that if we finish the season as a #1 seed that Melo couldn't win it?

All I want is a big shiny gold top rounded trophy in Melo's hands at the end of the year.

the ratio for melo is far too skewed in the wrong direction if the team he plays on is to be successful in the long run. if you take a look at the ratios of other wing players, you will see a trend that the further away from equilibrium the player is, the less his teams win.

bird and lebron are near 1:1
wilkins is 2.5:1 with a 53.5% TS. those are losing numbers.
mcgrady and drexler are both close to 1:1 but if you see their TS% it hurts their teams.
melo is 2:1 for his career but 3:1 this year.

the price of tea in china just went up and it may cost the knicks an ECF appearance.

so if melo is to help his teams excel in the playoffs he needs to get that ratio as close to 1:1 as he can while getting his TS% closer to 60. he does that he helps his mvp chances and his team's chances of success.

look at his line today. lots of points but 55.7% TS is very mediocre. 2 assists and 4 turnovers.

we're winning now but what do you expect in a 7-game series against one of the legue's top 5 teams?

Sabermetrics doesn't win games, DEFENSE wins games.

That's a ridiculous false choice. How about this:
GPS don't get you to your destination; cars do.
Umbrellas don't keep you from getting wet; clothes do.
Airbags don't save lives; careful driving does.

Time to get rid of your GPSs, umbrellas, and airbags I guess.

fantastic post bonn!!

Yeah - coming from a huge Allen Iverson who btw was atrocious sabermetrically.

Whatever works dude - whatever works

LOLOLOLOLOL

more nerdy facts to be easily dismissed because apparently it is not important HOW you win:

iverson 1.1:1 but as with wilkins, mcgrady, and drexler his woeful 51%TS held his teams back.
marbury .70:1 with 52%TS
francis .88:1 with 53%TS
rose .82:1 with 53%TS
fisher .88:1 with 52%TS
westbrook .82:1 with 52%TS
felton 1.2:1 with 50%TS
holiday .78:1 with 52%TS

none of these players helped their teams in the roles they were supposed to have played as much as their acolytes believe them to have.

parker .79:1 with 55%TS and where his best years were around 58%-- and coincided with titles.
kevin johnson .58:1 with 59%TS just terrific
ridnour .64:1 with 52.1%TS but career-long trending upward. he was at 57%TS the year stoudemire wanted him here.

now to melo's counterparts:

dantley 2:1 with 62%TS
aguirre 1.71:1 with 54.2%TS
king 1.73:1 with 56.1%TS
schrempf 1.18:1 with 58.6%TS massively underrated

Dude, Iverson took a Sixers team that had no business being in the finals to the finals. Don't care what saber says about AI, the guy came to play every day.

Felton,Kidd,Smith,Prigs combine for 40pts 19ast 6stls 6Tos on 46%fg, 43% from 3 at the guard position. If we could get Camby on board to add his ability to rebound and block in limited mins we would possibly have quality frontcourt #s as well.

dk7th wrote:

cooch2584 wrote:Andrew or Martin please please lock up this rediclous thread. Its getting stupid please lock

the material i provided is not stupid in fact it's pretty compelling. if you're intent on dismissing and denigrating my efforts at least tell me what you find so objectionable.

i am not one to lose the forest for the trees with stats but if you know how to use them you can tease out some cool trends and patterns.

Cool trends and patterns?? Are you kidding me? COOL? SNFH

Bonn1997 wrote:Actually, I'm glad you brought that up. Coincidentally, that was the one year that Iverson actually had a very impressive win share score (as did Dikembe Mutombo).

He had a high win share because they one lots of games. The sixers mainly one because they were crazy defensively and trust me, that was not because of mr "talking about defense"

Looking at AI's numbers that year which were grossly inefficient an then looking at his Win Shares makes this convoluted Win Shares stat look awful!

Oh and btw, that team won because of Todd MacCulloch and Pepe Sanchez. If those 2 players got more PT, they probably would have won it all (based on their WS's)

Edit: One more interesting tidbit ... AI's defensive win shares that year was 4.5 while Dikembe's was 1.8!!!! HUH!?

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Actually, I'm glad you brought that up. Coincidentally, that was the one year that Iverson actually had a very impressive win share score (as did Dikembe Mutombo).

He had a high win share because they one lots of games. The sixers mainly one because they were crazy defensively and trust me, that was not because of mr "talking about defense"

Looking at AI's numbers that year which were grossly inefficient an then looking at his Win Shares makes this convoluted Win Shares stat look awful!

Oh and btw, that team won because of Todd MacCulloch and Pepe Sanchez. If those 2 players got more PT, they probably would have won it all (based on their WS's)

Edit: One more interesting tidbit ... AI's defensive win shares that year was 4.5 while Dikembe's was 1.8!!!! HUH!?

That is a common misunderstanding. Team wins are not part of the win shares equation.

Also, AI played triple the games Motumbo played. So of course his total defensive win shares were much higher. Defensive win shares per 48 min would be more relevant but I can't find that online unfortunately.

dk7th wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Actually, I'm glad you brought that up. Coincidentally, that was the one year that Iverson actually had a very impressive win share score (as did Dikembe Mutombo).

He had a high win share because they one lots of games. The sixers mainly one because they were crazy defensively and trust me, that was not because of mr "talking about defense"

Looking at AI's numbers that year which were grossly inefficient an then looking at his Win Shares makes this convoluted Win Shares stat look awful!

Oh and btw, that team won because of Todd MacCulloch and Pepe Sanchez. If those 2 players got more PT, they probably would have won it all (based on their WS's)

it was the perfect snapshot of an era that fell into jordan's huge wake. it was an interesting if futile experiment. take an inefficient volume shooter who makes nobody around him better on either end of the floor and surround him with defenders and rebounders and see how far the team can go. i felt sorry for those guys who basically performed a rebounding drill every night so iverson. works on the regular season as we all know.

So does putting Iverson on Denver help Melo or hurt him? (Please don't say they hurt each other) - IT HURTS HIM! Kills the team! Made it worse, no?

How about Andre Miller? Did you look at his Win Shares on Denver?

I guess if you have a average efficient Melo as your scorer, you should probably surround him with efficient players, no?

How did Denver do with assembling the appropriate supporting cast? FAIL!

The knicks at least seemed to have gotten it this year and made the correct moves (unlike last year where we started the season with T freaking D at PG)