Bonn1997 wrote:Do you make every trade based on ignoring the general age trends and player's current trajectory just because you hope this will be an exception? Don't forget Kyrie could also be an exception in the sense that he deteriorates much faster than average. But it's unlikely. An organization shouldn't be making trades based on the exceptions they can imagine. There's an endless number of exceptions you can imagine. They're exceptions because by definition they're uncommon. I just looked up synonyms of exceptions and the results are: peculiarity, anomaly, deviation, abnormality, oddity.
You are, in principle, right about all this.
I do think, there is a dual consideration in terms of seeing the best marketplace decision.
A) If the Knicks get Kyrie Irving in a VALUE DEAL ( i.e. the Cavs run by LBJ make a stupid trade and sell him for pennies on the dollar, not likely to happen, but for the sake of discussion, let's say it does) , then take him. For whatever his limitations, or any players limitations, if you can get him cheap enough, there's value there.
Let him play a while, evaluate him.
Then either keep him OR TRADE HIM AWAY BASED ON MORE GOOD MARKETPLACE DECISIONS
B) If the Knicks can't Kyrie Irving in a value deal, then WALK AWAY FROM HIM AND ANY NEGOTIATIONS FOR HIM ( mostly likely to happen)
Arguing over Irving's limitations and decline is fair and good. His value to the Knicks right now though is dependent on what he'd cost and what he might present as future options in a retrade.
His current market isn't driven by his pluses against his negatives, they are driven by teams wanting to trade rape the Cavs given Scenario A presented.
You are right. Given what Irving is likely to cost the Knicks in assets and opportunity cost, Scenario B is the likely outcome and best case for this franchise. But for the sake of discussion, with Scenario A, there is value there.
Noah on a 4 year contract at 4 million a year would be a bargain, even with the massive injuries and decline. Assuming he'd sign without any compensation going to any other team. But he's making like 18 million a year so he's not a bargain. Though Noah on a 4/16 after the Knicks might have traded for him (another hypothetical) for a draft pick would not be a bargain. He'd be chewing cap space and gutting a positive asset. Even Noah, the worst current contract in the league, has value, if you skew the condition enough.
Irving is best seen as an asset of only true value if you can get him cheap and reflip him soon ( Pump and Dump/Buy Low And Sell High)