foosballnick wrote:martin wrote:Here is the risk factor argument why you would do the deal (or a hypothetical deal): Randle may want a cost prohibitive contract and/or may want to wait to after season to extend contract. If he decides to NOT extend, you are in the position to lose him for nothing OR be hamstrung by whatever contract HE wants. It's the same position LAC found themselves with PG or Toronto with Pascal. Toronto had to sell Pascal for quarters on the dollar and LAC got a goodbye kiss and hopefully a pat on the butt. Same deal with Brunson and Dallas.
The goal is to not only win a championship but to also guard yourself on the downside risks of losing control of your own destiny. Knicks FO is firmly in control of their salary cap right today. If they let Randle wander a day past his contract extension eligibility on Aug 9 (or whichever day he is first eligible), Randle has a lot more say in control of NY's salary cap position and how they can maneuver.
Today, you can say that as of right now, Knicks have a shot at a championship next year. They should want to give their team 5 shots at a championship. Losing Randle for nothing is a more important objective than only singularly focusing on giving yourself a shot next year at a championship with zero regard for the other 4 years; you got to do both.
Is it better to only secure yourself for the year or better to give/secure yourself more multiple shots at that same goal?
Yes - I get all that. To clarify - when I said Knicks are in "Win-Now" mode - it did not mean for only next season. Their core is locked for the next several years (with the exception of Randle) where barring injury they will be positioned to continue to make a run with or without JR at least IMO. Without Randle (or a good replacement) their chances would be lesser - but I agree that the FO would want to maneuver around Randle's agreement wisely and am aligned with you - in a previous post indicated that his retention or trade would be dictated by the pending financials and cap implications or his upcoming negotiations or demands on extension.
Where you and I seem to differ is regarding Sengun. I agree on his potential (especially on offense) and contract/control. I question 2 things. If Randle was traded, how will that hole be filled and does Sengun fit on D, considering how Thibs deploys centers. I don't believe OG is a perfect fit to replace Randle. He's kind of a hybrid 3/4 and while he can certainly defend the position when called on, I think it takes away some of his value as a rover on D. Perhaps it would be ok with now that Bridges is also here. On offense OG is not the creator that Randle is. Perhaps its being a bit selfish for this upcoming season, but I was so hyped last January that I want to see what this lineup can now do together and would rather just add a complimentary/useful and defensive focused center to spell Mitch's minutes.
In terms of salary cap hit, would have to know all the proposed trade pieces in order to understand the impacts. For instance someone proposed Randle for Sengun and Dillon Brooks. Not sure I would want to carry another wing (Brooks) at ~$20M per over the next 3 seasons.
In terms of going for a Championship. Let's face it, its been over 50 years. I'm not gonna be greedy - I'll take even one good shot at a 'ship.
I'm under the assumption that if Leon and Randle both had the same vision of what Randle's next contract could be with the Knicks, that's the first and best option and they would all do it in a heartbeat. I'd guess that to mean that Randle somehow gets either a 4 year extension or both parties agree on the total number of a 5 year deal that keeps them under the second apron with both Randle and one other move that solidifies the C position. If they both don't share that vision.... After that comes the Sengun hypothetical.
I don't ever envision a different lineup as a 1 to 1 direct tradeoff. If Randle is moved, I don't expect OG to fill the same role that Randle did as you may have suggested above. OG is not the Randle creator replacement, Sengun is. Sengun is not the defensive center Mitch/iHart were, maybe he is the C version of Randle and then we get a very lock down defensive PF who is also a terror as a weakside helper at the rim. That was the playoff lesson learned.
I think Thibs and FO values Net rating over pure rim protection. Thibs has repeatedly told us that Net rating is their highest priority as a team. That's the Sengun tradeoff, he and Brunson with wing wing wing in DDV Mikal OG would provide a hypothetical offensive rating in line with prime GS but which stays above the defensive drop-off. I'd guess that they are making a bet on the long term 3point shot for a 5 out play, it's not unrealistic and they already know Sengun is a very very good midrange guy who can pass out of the high post. That's a lot of room for Brunson.
It's hard to suss out what a trade would be but the Knicks may not need to move Mitch, he would just go to bench and that's a nice role for him considering his injuries and it solves a different problem for the Knicks.
It's not a 1-to-1 but Sengun's next contract is going to start in the range of $35M+. Randle's next contract can start in he $45M+ range. That extra $10M in conjunction with whatever the Knicks spend on Precious and whatnot can then be used with Mitch and Deuce and picks to really return a badass player that you not have been able to get because of second apron.