NotInMyHouse wrote:Everyone here should listen to this press conference from Doctors Erickson and Massihi of California on ABC News. They are going over US and Global data statistics re CV19.

2nd part - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

I disagree with these doctor's. What they are not mentioning is the length of stay in intensive care that we are seeing with each covid patient. the difference between patients infected with influenza and patients infected with coronavirus is that influenza doesn't have the possibility of overwhelming the current medical system and infrastructure while coronavirus does. average length of stay for patients in my hospital is between 20 and 30 days. We are not set up to handle that. And as they correctly mentioned and we are seeing currently that is causing a knock on effect on patients Who require other surgeries, cancer patients and all kinds of patients who need medical attention. That's the reason why we need to flatten the curve.

firefly wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:Everyone here should listen to this press conference from Doctors Erickson and Massihi of California on ABC News. They are going over US and Global data statistics re CV19.

2nd part - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

I disagree with these doctor's. What they are not mentioning is the length of stay in intensive care that we are seeing with each covid patient. the difference between patients infected with influenza and patients infected with coronavirus is that influenza doesn't have the possibility of overwhelming the current medical system and infrastructure while coronavirus does. average length of stay for patients in my hospital is between 20 and 30 days. We are not set up to handle that. And as they correctly mentioned and we are seeing currently that is causing a knock on effect on patients Who require other surgeries, cancer patients and all kinds of patients who need medical attention. That's the reason why we need to flatten the curve.

It’s maddening that the ‘oh it’s just flu’ brigade still, after 5 weeks, haven’t grasped this simple point, it’s not hard to understand!

NotInMyHouse wrote:Everyone here should listen to this press conference from Doctors Erickson and Massihi of California on ABC News. They are going over US and Global data statistics re CV19.

2nd part - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

So why should we listen to these guys versus someone else?

Hour long video, why are you recommending we spend time here?

What are we to get out of this?

Nalod wrote:Nalod opened up a fine bottle of Mescal yesterday and was sipping it when Trump spoke that nonsense. I put the bottle down and witht he DVR rewound it and asked Mrs. Nalod If I heard him say what i thought he did.
His vanity and narsassistic thinking believes he is that clever. I drank more.
I don't need CNN to tell me what I heard with my own ears. That is one dumb man.
I hope some of you that voted for this man think beyond party and think not just what he says, but he systematically removes accountability of agencies and obsolves himself of blame. Thats not leadership. Thats childish.
If you have children, please think of what your leaving them.
I don't care if your republican or Democrat, just get rid of him.

A few months ago if anyone told me to vote for Trump I would just ignore such nonsense. However, now that Sanders has shown to be a weak politician( I still love his platform, just that his approach is crap) and we have Biden ( thank the establishment kids) who is a corporate hack willing to sell out on the dime. Biden is the corporate candidate x100. Sanders threatened the establishment so the establishment consolidated and came up with Biden. I am one to support the lesser of two evils, and Hillary vs. Trump I did not vote because I was disqusted by both. (BTW Marv, I could not find the quote, it has been a few years, the only thing now is her "tough" stance on Russia. I can provide that if you like) Anyway never thought I'd say this but I hope Trump crushes creepy, senile, no policy, spineless Biden. Do you really want the corporations to sink their teeth deeper?

ramtour420 wrote:

Nalod wrote:Nalod opened up a fine bottle of Mescal yesterday and was sipping it when Trump spoke that nonsense. I put the bottle down and witht he DVR rewound it and asked Mrs. Nalod If I heard him say what i thought he did.
His vanity and narsassistic thinking believes he is that clever. I drank more.
I don't need CNN to tell me what I heard with my own ears. That is one dumb man.
I hope some of you that voted for this man think beyond party and think not just what he says, but he systematically removes accountability of agencies and obsolves himself of blame. Thats not leadership. Thats childish.
If you have children, please think of what your leaving them.
I don't care if your republican or Democrat, just get rid of him.

A few months ago if anyone told me to vote for Trump I would just ignore such nonsense. However, now that Sanders has shown to be a weak politician( I still love his platform, just that his approach is crap) and we have Biden ( thank the establishment kids) who is a corporate hack willing to sell out on the dime. Biden is the corporate candidate x100. Sanders threatened the establishment so the establishment consolidated and came up with Biden. I am one to support the lesser of two evils, and Hillary vs. Trump I did not vote because I was disqusted by both. (BTW Marv, I could not find the quote, it has been a few years, the only thing now is her "tough" stance on Russia. I can provide that if you like) Anyway never thought I'd say this but I hope Trump crushes creepy, senile, no policy, spineless Biden. Do you really want the corporations to sink their teeth deeper?

ramtour my god, this post

not sure where to start, but let’s go with this: so trump ISN’T in the pockets of corporations??

NotInMyHouse wrote:firefly, smackeddog, and Martin

A bit hard to take 50 minutes and summarize it as lots of data was given (from CDC and WHO.) I’ll give some main points. They are not saying anything extreme re getting things going again. A gradual opening up is all.

Statistically, lockdown vs. non-lockdown did not display a significantly different number of deaths. (Special note to firefly here.)

We have a VERY high infection rate and a very low death rate, in line with the flu (with more of a respiratory component). The asymptomatic rate, I believe is near 25%. 90% or so of deaths have comorbidity (e.g. heart failure, emphysema, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, are on immunological medication, immune deficient, HIV, etc.) Healthy people dying of CV19 are infinitesimally small.

The statistics do not back up what we are doing (anymore) – We used models at first (and those models which predicted from 100’s of thousands to millions of deaths) are way off. We are destroying our economy, way of life and increasing: spousal abuse, anger, alcoholism, anxiety, depression, suicide, child molestation (lifetime of effects) and on. The cost of what we are doing no longer makes any sense.

Look at the infection rates and chance of death from CV19. Some statistics:

California
280,930 tested, 33,865 tested positive = 12% infected
1,227 deaths = .03% chance of dying from CV19
96% chance of recovery with no significant medical problems

NY State
649,325 tested, 256,272 tested positive = 39% infected
19,410 deaths (19 million people) = .1% chance of death
92% chance of recovery with no significant medical Problems

United States
4+ million tested, 802,590 tested positive = 19.6% infected
50,000 deaths (331 million pop.) = .015% chance of death

Spain
930,000 tested, 204,178 positive = 22% infection rate
21,282 deaths = .05% chance of death
90% chance of recovery with no significant medical problems

Sweden (No lockdown, light social distancing)
74,600 tested, 15,322 positive = 21% infection rate
1,765 deaths with no isolation = .017 % chance of death

I agree with you that this is going to have terrible long term effects and it’s beginning already. People haven’t even spoken about the effects on our power plants. A number of people have told me there could be outages.

With that said, the sole purpose of this is to get people out of the hospitals. People who are suffering non-covid related emergencies are refusing to go to the hospital because of this. Supposedly, they are still in awful shape. There is no way we can just open up until things ease up in the hospitals significantly.

Again, I agree that we probably can’t go on like this much longer.

NotInMyHouse wrote:firefly, smackeddog, and Martin

A bit hard to take 50 minutes and summarize it as lots of data was given (from CDC and WHO.) I’ll give some main points. They are not saying anything extreme re getting things going again. A gradual opening up is all.

Statistically, lockdown vs. non-lockdown did not display a significantly different number of deaths. (Special note to firefly here.)

We have a VERY high infection rate and a very low death rate, in line with the flu (with more of a respiratory component). The asymptomatic rate, I believe is near 25%. 90% or so of deaths have comorbidity (e.g. heart failure, emphysema, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, are on immunological medication, immune deficient, HIV, etc.) Healthy people dying of CV19 are infinitesimally small.

The statistics do not back up what we are doing (anymore) – We used models at first (and those models which predicted from 100’s of thousands to millions of deaths) are way off. We are destroying our economy, way of life and increasing: spousal abuse, anger, alcoholism, anxiety, depression, suicide, child molestation (lifetime of effects) and on. The cost of what we are doing no longer makes any sense.

Look at the infection rates and chance of death from CV19. Some statistics:

We don't know what the asymptomatic rate is at the moment because we haven't devised a sufficiently accurate way of testing if someone has had the virus AND we haven't done sufficiently large enough tests to determine the rate even with the tests we have- so the asymptotic rate of 25% is made up.

Comorbidity factors include diabetes and obesity- those are so high in the US, I wouldn't draw any comfort at all. Besides which if you would have survived anyway, but catch and die from COVID-19, COVID-19 killed you, not the comorbidity factors.

Besides which, the problem isn't the mortality rate alone (which again we can't be sure of because we haven't done a sufficient number of tests AND a lot of deaths are hidden/not included- if you look at the UK, one newspaper calculated that the number of deaths might actually be 40,000, rather than the stated hospital deaths of 20,000), the problem is the ridiculously high infection rate (because its a new virus and most of the population lacks any immunity and because it's asymptomatic but transmittable for such a long period of time, and, most worryingly of all, we have no proof that you even develop immunity after you've had it), coupled with the long recovery time (3-4weeks), coupled with the intensive care needs for those who develop complications.

For illustrative purposes, say 80% of people could recover at home or where asymptomatic (remember asymptomatic isn't actually a good thing because those people pass on the virus unknowingly), 20% went on to develop complications that need hospitalisation, and then say 50% of those (10% of the population) ended up needing to be put on ventilators, and then of those 90% recovered (so say 1% of the population died). Now 1% mortality rate is horrific- you'd struggle to conceive what that looked like and the strain that would put on funeral services (expect mass, mass burials). However the true devastation comes from the health service becoming completely overwhelmed due to the high infection rates, intensive care requirements and the long recovery times. Now as soon as the health services become overwhelmed, all hell breaks loose:

1) People who need hospitalization for COVID-19 and would have survived now can't get treatment- so the mortality rate can increase from 1% to 20% using the above stats

2) Because the hospitals are beyond capacity, and staff are getting sick or exhausted and supplies are running out, no or fewer non-covid-19 ailments can be treated, so people who have a heart attack or a stroke, or complications giving birth, or are in car accidents, may not get the hospitalization they need, again mortality rates would rocket- we'd essentially be living without a functioning medical service for months. Cancer wouldn't be caught early, and cancer treatments don't et given- again causing mortality rates for non-COVID-19 issues to sky rocket.

Do you now get why it isn't just the flu?

And as the final doomsday scenario:

3) It hasn't been proven that having it makes you immune (or even how long immunity would last even if it did). Now can you imagine the above scenario, except one that never really ends? This is why we have to play for time, because until we find a vaccine (no guarantee) or effective treatment that bypasses the need for hospitalization, we're screwed. If you just give up and let it run rampant, you'd lose millions of people this year alone AND then would face the same thing next year and the year after that.

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:firefly, smackeddog, and Martin

A bit hard to take 50 minutes and summarize it as lots of data was given (from CDC and WHO.) I’ll give some main points. They are not saying anything extreme re getting things going again. A gradual opening up is all.

Statistically, lockdown vs. non-lockdown did not display a significantly different number of deaths. (Special note to firefly here.)

We have a VERY high infection rate and a very low death rate, in line with the flu (with more of a respiratory component). The asymptomatic rate, I believe is near 25%. 90% or so of deaths have comorbidity (e.g. heart failure, emphysema, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, are on immunological medication, immune deficient, HIV, etc.) Healthy people dying of CV19 are infinitesimally small.

The statistics do not back up what we are doing (anymore) – We used models at first (and those models which predicted from 100’s of thousands to millions of deaths) are way off. We are destroying our economy, way of life and increasing: spousal abuse, anger, alcoholism, anxiety, depression, suicide, child molestation (lifetime of effects) and on. The cost of what we are doing no longer makes any sense.

Look at the infection rates and chance of death from CV19. Some statistics:

We don't know what the asymptomatic rate is at the moment because we haven't devised a sufficiently accurate way of testing if someone has had the virus AND we haven't done sufficiently large enough tests to determine the rate even with the tests we have- so the asymptotic rate of 25% is made up.

Comorbidity factors include diabetes and obesity- those are so high in the US, I wouldn't draw any comfort at all. Besides which if you would have survived anyway, but catch and die from COVID-19, COVID-19 killed you, not the comorbidity factors.

Besides which, the problem isn't the mortality rate alone (which again we can't be sure of because we haven't done a sufficient number of tests AND a lot of deaths are hidden/not included- if you look at the UK, one newspaper calculated that the number of deaths might actually be 40,000, rather than the stated hospital deaths of 20,000), the problem is the ridiculously high infection rate (because its a new virus and most of the population lacks any immunity and because it's asymptomatic but transmittable for such a long period of time, and, most worryingly of all, we have no proof that you even develop immunity after you've had it), coupled with the long recovery time (3-4weeks), coupled with the intensive care needs for those who develop complications.

For illustrative purposes, say 80% of people could recover at home or where asymptomatic (remember asymptomatic isn't actually a good thing because those people pass on the virus unknowingly), 20% went on to develop complications that need hospitalisation, and then say 50% of those (10% of the population) ended up needing to be put on ventilators, and then of those 90% recovered (so say 1% of the population died). Now 1% mortality rate is horrific- you'd struggle to conceive what that looked like and the strain that would put on funeral services (expect mass, mass burials). However the true devastation comes from the health service becoming completely overwhelmed due to the high infection rates, intensive care requirements and the long recovery times. Now as soon as the health services become overwhelmed, all hell breaks loose:

1) People who need hospitalization for COVID-19 and would have survived now can't get treatment- so the mortality rate can increase from 1% to 20% using the above stats

2) Because the hospitals are beyond capacity, and staff are getting sick or exhausted and supplies are running out, no or fewer non-covid-19 ailments can be treated, so people who have a heart attack or a stroke, or complications giving birth, or are in car accidents, may not get the hospitalization they need, again mortality rates would rocket- we'd essentially be living without a functioning medical service for months. Cancer wouldn't be caught early, and cancer treatments don't et given- again causing mortality rates for non-COVID-19 issues to sky rocket.

Do you now get why it isn't just the flu?

And as the final doomsday scenario:

3) It hasn't been proven that having it makes you immune (or even how long immunity would last even if it did). Now can you imagine the above scenario, except one that never really ends? This is why we have to play for time, because until we find a vaccine (no guarantee) or effective treatment that bypasses the need for hospitalization, we're screwed. If you just give up and let it run rampant, you'd lose millions of people this year alone AND then would face the same thing next year and the year after that.

(allanfan too)

Thanks for taking the time with your post. But don't misunderstand the doctors saying this is just a flu. It is beyond that.

The quarantining doesn't seem to make much of a difference when you look at the statistics. This is a big part of the point.
And it would be nice to have some statistics from China, but they apparently didn't want our observers/scientists there.

Here is a statistical analysis of the 8 US States who are not quarantining, compared to those that are. (Sweden is also mentioned and note their data above.) And of note - A linear regression was done on the data (accounting for variables such as median age, population, population density, median income, racial diversity, etc.) We now have a whole lot of data here to work with here. So, we need to open things back up, and I said that above - but slowly, of course.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/
A big takeaway is this:

The question the model set out to ask was whether lockdown states experience fewer Covid-19 cases and deaths than social-distancing states, adjusted for all of the above variables. The answer? No. The impact of state-response strategy on both my cases and deaths measures was utterly insignificant.

Luckily, we are going to start SLOWLY opening up on May 1st. I am not sure how much longer people would have lasted tbh.

Stay healthy

Marv wrote:

ramtour420 wrote:Being from New York it really wount matter who I vote for as it always goes to the democrats. Now if the election was decided by the popular vote then my vote would matter. Electorial college vs popular vote is a whole another matter tho, not going to get into that. The discussion here is about my "hypothetical" vote. Why don't I vote blue no matter who?
Believe me when I say this Trump is for corporations, he is for himself and he is against the little guy. No question. However Biden is even more so. How? Biden is senile, he cannot even speak for 5 minutes without embarrassing himself. This man is not going to make any decisions, they will all be made for him. Who will make all the decisions? The lobby will. We all know that lobbyists = corporations. Yes Trump is the same, almost. What does Trump have that Biden doesn't ? He is an ignorant, narcissistic man. He actually cares what people think about him, he cares a lot. Yes he has stupid ideas like The Wall. But at least they are HIS stupid ideas. Biden is just a puppet, Trump is not so much. Both terrible but out of the two evils here at least I know what I have in Trump, mostly harmless and incompetent. ( his covid handling was criminal, but other than that I mean) Biden on the other hand could be more dangerous.
Maybe it's all because I feel so betrayed by Sanders. Instead of calling Biden out and attacking him like politicians do Sanders goes and says "Joe is a good man" wtf is that? I know it's maybe right on a human level but I don't want my president to be a nice guy. I want him to fight for those who put the trust into him. Anyway I cannot make both Teump and Biden lose, one of them has to win and I just hope it's not Biden.

wow. this is how trump did and will get elected.

It's always odd to me how people have a hard time basing decisions and evaluation on literal facts versus what they have got to know they are emotionally attached to.

Anyway, I'm gonna spend the weekend flipping thru the oodles of articles where this one mobster ******* laundered Russian money all over the place for the last half century and then catch up on the bunch of articles that that came out this week that also suggest he and probably his whole family has some pretty big debts coming up via China and Deutsche Bank and then wonder to myself if any of those places will be making decisions for him. I've run out of Tide pods to clean out my lungs, gotta go grocery shopping soon too.

martin wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:Luckily, we are going to start SLOWLY opening up on May 1st. I am not sure how much longer people would have lasted tbh.

Stay healthy

Like where? Cause I don't see that happening except those odd bowling alleys in Georgia.

Also, articles from Spike-Online? Can we do better than that?

May 15th in NY. Hopefully we stay the course for either that or June 1st.