Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:I'll be rooting for both Boston and Milwaukee moving forward (during a lot of games).

Because these two teams (outside of the times we play Boston 2x) can end up helping the Knicks playoff seedings (a lot).

Milwaukee:
Nets.
76ers
Nets.
76ers.

Boston:
76ers.
Cavs.
Nets.
Cavs.
76ers.

Philly has to play both Milwaukee/Boston 4x.

Brooklyn has to play both Milwaukee/Boston 3x.

Cleveland has to play Boston 2x.

To make it even more intriguing...

76ers/Cavs/Nets all play each other multiple times.

(it's about to get crazy in the East).

I promise you (especially if the Knicks stay winning and get real hot).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Entering this evening, the Knicks have .2 chance to finish 3rd (same chance as finishing 11), a 2.1 chance to finish 4th and a 20.1 chance to finish 5.

Their odds are greater to finish 7 or 8 than 3, 4 or 5.

And this is based on simulations, where every team's schedule is taken into account (10k times) and conference knock-offs are baked in.

Just math, not bias.

Well I'm sure those same simulators probably had the Knicks @ 35 wins max (shows how much they know).

But more importantly I bet that simulator also had 76ers winning vs. Memphis @ home in Philly tonight too. Because I know Vegas did. Because Vegas had Philadelphia as nice size favorites by -3.5 Points tonight.

But now look.

Philadelphia is getting destroyed by 16 (48-34) and only 2nd Q (might lose by 25-30+).

If you think the simulations had the sixers beating memphis all 10k times, you don't understand what simulations are. I'm sure at least 40% of the 10k simulations had the Grizzlies winning.

Again, your reflexively seem to you think there is human bias in the model. There is not.

Right now it's based on 60 games played. It's based on what NBA teams have done for 3/4s of the season, not what anyone thinks.

All I know is how those 4th seed Cavaliers just lost to Denver (@ home in Cleveland) despite Cleveland being the -2.5 Favorites.

1st game out of the All-Star break and Cleveland's already 0-1 (and Donovan Mitchell was the opposite of Jalen Brunson type clutch during the 4th Q).

Hey. Don't look now but if NY wins tomorrow and Cleveland loses to ATL on a back to back?

We'll no longer trail Cleveland by -4.5 games but instead only -3.0 back of that 4th seed (with a chance to make it only -2.5 come Saturday vs. Pelicans).

For some reasons these simulators don't see, what I see. Because I see a window opening up for Knicks to climb the standings (3-4-5 are all 3 still very alive).

NYKMentality wrote:I spoke too soon on Philadelphia gut-wrenching to watch 76ers comeback win over Memphis (Grizzlies wet the bed end of 4th Q).

Well.

@ least Cleveland (4th seed) lost tonight 😡

Lol, the next time you get anything right will be the first time 🤣

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:I'll be rooting for both Boston and Milwaukee moving forward (during a lot of games).

Because these two teams (outside of the times we play Boston 2x) can end up helping the Knicks playoff seedings (a lot).

Milwaukee:
Nets.
76ers
Nets.
76ers.

Boston:
76ers.
Cavs.
Nets.
Cavs.
76ers.

Philly has to play both Milwaukee/Boston 4x.

Brooklyn has to play both Milwaukee/Boston 3x.

Cleveland has to play Boston 2x.

To make it even more intriguing...

76ers/Cavs/Nets all play each other multiple times.

(it's about to get crazy in the East).

I promise you (especially if the Knicks stay winning and get real hot).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Entering this evening, the Knicks have .2 chance to finish 3rd (same chance as finishing 11), a 2.1 chance to finish 4th and a 20.1 chance to finish 5.

Their odds are greater to finish 7 or 8 than 3, 4 or 5.

And this is based on simulations, where every team's schedule is taken into account (10k times) and conference knock-offs are baked in.

Just math, not bias.

Well I'm sure those same simulators probably had the Knicks @ 35 wins max (shows how much they know).

But more importantly I bet that simulator also had 76ers winning vs. Memphis @ home in Philly tonight too. Because I know Vegas did. Because Vegas had Philadelphia as nice size favorites by -3.5 Points tonight.

But now look.

Philadelphia is getting destroyed by 16 (48-34) and only 2nd Q (might lose by 25-30+).

If you think the simulations had the sixers beating memphis all 10k times, you don't understand what simulations are. I'm sure at least 40% of the 10k simulations had the Grizzlies winning.

Again, your reflexively seem to you think there is human bias in the model. There is not.

Right now it's based on 60 games played. It's based on what NBA teams have done for 3/4s of the season, not what anyone thinks.

All I know is how those 4th seed Cavaliers just lost to Denver (@ home in Cleveland) despite Cleveland being the -2.5 Favorites.

1st game out of the All-Star break and Cleveland's already 0-1 (and Donovan Mitchell was the opposite of Jalen Brunson type clutch during the 4th Q).

Hey. Don't look now but if NY wins tomorrow and Cleveland loses to ATL on a back to back?

We'll no longer trail Cleveland by -4.5 games but instead only -3.0 back of that 4th seed (with a chance to make it only -2.5 come Saturday vs. Pelicans).

For some reasons these simulators don't see, what I see. Because I see a window opening up for Knicks to climb the standings (3-4-5 are all 3 still very alive).

That's because they're not invested in rationalizing their desired outcome... like 60 wins.

NYKMentality wrote:All-Star Weekend is over and Knicks basketball is back (Back-2-Back edition).

Next 11 Games:
1.) @ Washington (28-30) = Tonight.

2.) vs. Pelicans (30-29)
3.) vs. Celtics (42-17)
4.) vs. Nets (34-24)
5.) @ Miami (32-27)
6.) @ Boston (42-17)
7.) vs Hornets (17-43)
8.) @ Sacramento (32-25)
9.) @ Los Angeles Clippers (33-28)
10.) @ Los Angeles Lakers (27-32)
11.) @ Portland (28-30)

Top 5 = 🎯
1.) Boston Celtics: 43-17 (.717%)
2.) Milwaukee Bucks: 41-17 (.707%) -1.0
3.) Denver Nuggets: 42-18 (.700%) -1.0
4.) Philadelphia 76ers: 39-19 (.672%) -3.0

5.) Cleveland Cavaliers: 38-24 (.613%) -6.0

6.) Memphis Grizzlies: 35-23 (.603%) -7.0
7.) Brooklyn Nets: 34-24 (.586%) -8.0
8.) Sacramento Kings: 33-25 (.569%) 9.0
9.) NEW YORK KNICKS: 33-27 (.550%) -10.0
10.) Miami Heat: 32-27 (.542%) -10.5

Tonight's NBA Games:
Milwaukee (1) @ Heat (10).
Cavaliers (5) @ Atlanta.
Nets (7) @ Chicago.
Kings (8) @ Los Angeles Clippers.
Knicks (9) @ Washington.

Off-Nights:
(Boston/Denver/Philadelphia/Memphis.

Tomorrow Nights NBA Games:
Celtics (1) @ Philadelphia (4).
Nuggets (3) @ Memphis (6).
New York (9) vs. Pelicans.
Heat (10) @ Charlotte.

Off-Nights:
Milwaukee/Cleveland/Nets/Sacramento.

Big Time Game Tonight (witn an even bigger opportunity).

Don't know if you mentioned it but playing top teams at the end of the year is sometimes a good thing if you are trying to get into the lower spots. Since the top teams will rest their main guys if their seed is already locked in.

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

That projected standings stuff is useless and means absolutely nothingness.

If you understood it rather than rejected it for no other reason than you don't like it's projections, that'd one thing. But you don't.

It doesn't take into consideration momentum ala Knicks = 5 game winning streak (after tonight) + Cleveland on a 3 game losing streak etc.

Of course it does. You ever notice the "last 10" portion of the standings?

Also takes into account scoring margin, which has been found to be the most accurate factor in predicting results across all the major sports.

Also factors in SOS through all the games played AND SOS for all the remaining games.

Also takes into account how many times Miami plays Boster, and Philly plays cleveland, etc.

I mean those projected standings don't even realize Brooklyn no longer has Kyrie/Durant and only 2-5 previous 7 games because they have them locked in @ the 5 seed which shows us all how clueless "projected standings" truly are.

THIS you're correct about. It doesn't take into account huge roster gutting trades, one of the reasons I never mentioned the 5th seed but rather mentioned the probability of the 3rd seed which I don't think you understand how mathematically improbable (not impossible) it is.

And that's the thing, I can acknowledge its flaws because its accuracy has PROVEN to be sound and because I don't take a personal stake in it.

It'd be one thing if you could simply acknowledge its proven merit and your own flawed methodology (basically your desire and self image) and still maintain your personal opinion, but for some reason you need to reject anything you don't like, despite not having a sound and tested reason to.

This is 60 wins all over again. I could not convince of the mathematical certainty of the Knicks NOT winning 60 then (which, btw, had NOTHING to do with the Knicks winding up sucking that year) but you were as convinced and convicted and you are now, and rejected any math or logic other than your own personal desires then too.

Next 11 Games:
1.) @ Washington = Win.
2.) vs. Pelicans = Win.

3.) Monday (2-27-2023) @ 7:30 vs. Celtics (44-17)

4.) vs. Nets.
5.) @ Miami.
6.) @ Boston.
7.) vs Hornets.
8.) @ Sacramento.
9.) @ Los Angeles Clippers.
10.) @ Los Angeles Lakers.
11.) @ Portland.

(Both Miami and even Philadelphia lost tonight).

1.) Boston Celtics = 44-17 (.721%).
2.) Milwaukee Bucks = 42-17 (.707%). -1.0

3.) Philadelphia 76ers = 39-20 (.661%). -4.0.

4.) Cleveland Cavaliers = 38-25 (.603%). -7.0
5.) Brooklyn Nets = 34-25 (.576%). -9.0
6.) NEW YORK KNICKS = 35-27 (.565%). -9.5.

7.) Miami Heat = 32-29 (.525%) -12.0
8.) Atlanta Hawks = 30-30 (.500%) -13.5.

Tomorrow Nights Games:
Milwaukee (2) vs. Suns.
Cleveland (4) vs. Toronto.
Brooklyn (5) @ Atlanta (8).

Another Cleveland loss (3 Loses in a row right now) + another Brooklyn loss (2-5 previous 7) would have the Knicks in prime position for that 4th seed.

Next 11 Games:
1.) @ Washington = Win.
2.) vs. Pelicans = Win.

3.) Tonight @ 7:30 vs. Celtics (44-17).

4.) vs. Nets.
5.) @ Miami.
6.) @ Boston.
7.) vs Hornets.
8.) @ Sacramento.
9.) @ Los Angeles Clippers.
10.) @ Los Angeles Lakers.
11.) @ Portland.

Eastern Conference Standings:
1.) Boston Celtics = 44-17 (.721%).
2.) Milwaukee Bucks = 43-17 (.717%). -0.5
3.) Philadelphia 76ers = 39-20 (.661%). -4.0.

4.) Cleveland Cavaliers = 39-25 (.609%). -6.5
5.) Brooklyn Nets = 34-26 (.567%). -9.5
6.) NEW YORK KNICKS = 35-27 (.565%). -9.5.

7.) Miami Heat = 32-29 (.525%) -12.0
8.) Atlanta Hawks = 31-30 (.508%) -13.0.

Games Tonight:
Celtics (1) @ New York (6).
Philadelphia (3) vs. Heat (7).

I'll be rooting for Miami to beat Philadelphia tonight because my goal (throughout the entire Regular Season) has been the #3 seed and a Knicks win vs. Boston + Philadelphia loss vs. Miami would = only 4.5 back of that 3rd seed.

NYKMentality wrote: I'll be rooting for Miami to beat Philadelphia tonight because my goal (throughout the entire Regular Season) has been the #3 seed and a Knicks win vs. Boston + Philadelphia loss vs. Miami would = only 4.5 back of that 3rd seed.

Up to a 1.1% chance!

Up from 0.2 two games ago...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html