EwingsGlass wrote:TPercy wrote:Can someone please explain to me how trading NINE FUCKING MILLION on an EXPIRING contract for a protected first that will 100% convey is good buisness? Like this is easily one of the dumbest moves we’ve made. If we kept the 4 picks then honestly I can live with it but giving up a first to trade an okay contract is so stupid.
Because Detroit is under the cap, the $9MM they absorbed creates a Traded Player Exception for the Knicks of the same amount. Recall they have a 1.2mm TPE from the Knox deal. These are not "cap space" unless they are waived, instead, they are basically options to acquire a player for the amount of the TPE without matching that incoming salary. In addition, the 11 pick comes with a 4.9mm cap hold which represents the rookie scale contract allocated to the #11 pick. Without this trade, they have Walker's 9mm and #11 slated to use 15mm of cap space. Technically, we are carrying Jalen Duran's cap hold until the transactions clear, but that may not "clear" until free agency. Teams often leave transactions unfinished on paper until they must. As such they remain over the cap on paper, but once the dust settles, they will be below the cap.
The key point is that they are not yet below the cap. They can still wheel and deal with the explicit threat of going below the cap to sign players outright. Take about 15mm and waive Gibson's non-guaranteed money and you have about 20mm of money to spend in free agency. Using FVV's contract as guidance on Brunson and you have the threat of a deal if Brunson is willing. The threat being the key term. If Dallas accepts the threat as credible, they become motivated to make a deal instead of losing Brunson for nothing. Starting bid for us is the TPE from Walker and Gibson. They probably ask for Noel and the TPE. We end up with Brunson without waiving Gibson, without waiving any other exceptions we have (like the MLE) and we become hard-capped because we used a S&T to add salary while above the salary cap. We aren't near the hard cap limit, so that's forgivable.
Now, we gave up #11 (with no prospects that were truly making us excited. I liked AJ Griffin, but I appear to be alone in that position). We gave up our 2023 second rd Utah's 2023 second rd, a top 55 protected second rd and a 2024 2nd rd. In 2023, we now have our 1st, Dallas's 1st (protected), Washington's 1st (protected), Detroit's 1st (protected) and Detroit's 2nd. We could be picking 5 times next year. Or, as we approach next year's trade deadline and the impending free agency of a record draft class (together with the famed "double draft"), we will have a slew up upcoming draft picks to play with, some which may not vest immediately.
There are only so many picks we can use ourselves, but we upgraded 2nds to options on 1sts that revert to 2nds if they don't vest in the next several years.
And we have a top 4 protected Bucks pick for 2025. That team may still be nasty in 2024/2025, but they will be facing aging and salary cap pressures with Middleton expiring with player option in 2023 and Holiday a player option for 2024. They are not likely to be the same team they have been the last couple years. Its a gamble.
The moves aren't "sexy" but they are smart. They found value in a vacuum. They created the bargaining position they want/need for this offseason and have the ammo to be players in the next year. They have a number of expiring contracts with team options. They have things that can be sold as 1st rd draft picks (despite the conditions) and they have the ability to make a move on a PG this offseason.
The team is still deeply flawed. I don't think Brunson fixes that. But we now have bargaining position to make other moves. The optionality is valuable.
Appreciate the thoughtful write up and I agree with some stuff you said. What I still can’t wrap my head around is why it had to be a protected first that had the highest chance of conveying? Giving up the pick to acquire Jalen Duren is great. But you’re telling me Duren and Kemba for cap space is equal value? It simply isn’t unless I’m not understanding your point.
