Kemet wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:I think RJs play over the last 3rd of the season was enough to convince the Knicks to keep him long term. I don't think RJ will be a top ten player in the league but I think he will be a top 50 guy. His salary cap hold for next off season is 38 million. He won't get that but if the Knicks try to play the RFA route, I'm not sure it will bring considerable savings. Randle's deal also sets a cap on what RJ should get. It's hard to argue he's much more valuable than Randle.

If Knicks sign Robinson to an Evan Fournier type contract, the Knicks will have about 110 million in salary going into FA next offseason. With a semi spike in the cap from a new CBA, they could potentially have enough to be players in FA.

I’ve put a number of posts up about giving RJ his shot to be the center of the offense. He has gotten that shot for half a season and the returns aren’t that amazing. Ignoring the “money stats” for the deeper dive into eFG in particular, he is among the highest volume shooters with the lowest efficiency. In perspective, the criticism of ISO-Melo was his low FG% and likewise low eFG. I use Wiggins as my model of a fringe player that got a large contract that resulted in multiple teams trading him - sometimes adding picks for the luxury. Wiggins had an eFG of .548 compared to Barrett’s .466. It took Wiggins most of his contract to earn out on that contract.

I want to believe that RJ will continue to develop and I do believe he will be a productive player in this league. But after seeing his inability to convert at the rim which seems to come from a lack of athleticism and an unwillingness to find open teammates, I am questioning whether giving him money is another Wiggins contract.

As we watch Wiggins in the finals, it doesn’t seem so bad. But on the other hand, TWolves gave up a lotto pick to get DLo for him even though positional scarcity called it a fair trade straight up.

I worry that paying Barrett will cost us a draft pick to move later.

Simple solution for both Barrett and Randle is to improve eFG. Just take more efficient shots. Might be time to actually implement an offense.

Agree with everything you say. Is he good or has he been benefitting from a lots of shots and ample play time? The advanced stats in particular hate him. The eye test tells a different story. Whether last season as a corner 3 sniper or this season getting to the rim, he looks really good.

My feeling a month ago was that NY should go all in for Lillard.Nothing has really changed that view but it seems increasingly unlikely- a lot of talk about Portland trying to rebuild around Dame and his presence at the draft says a lot. I think getting an all NBA player would let everyone else get better shots. No one is scheming to stop Burks.

The main reason I'm for extending RJ is just for stability. I think if an extension gets done for a Randle sized -contract, then the Knicks have a higher floor going forward.

I see no one mention Barrett becoming an All-Star player in the future, or Barrett's performance as a guard, or at the SF. This past season Burks needed lots of help from Fournier & Barrett in the back court which he never receive.
Wiggins has always been getting paid twice what his performance been worth in his NBA career.
Giving Barrett over 90M contract will be the same as Wiggins.
When Poole was in the same draft-class as Barrett, and Poole showed team leadership throughout his 3rd season performing well on court at multi position on both sides of the court.
Poole's 76 game performance in the back court this past season having injury to SG Klay at the start of the season, then an injury PG Curry during the season was off the chart. We know what position combo-guard Poole play. Barrett's individual performance couldn't touch Poole's performance having a 10 foot pole.

IF the Knicks have to play Quickley at the PG position next season .. Who will the Knicks have at the SG position? Barrett & Fournier & Burks are no help at the SG position, especially on defense. 2nd season SG-Grimes are good on the defensive end, but Grimes has no offense creativeness to score.

I think my issue is that I didn’t see any strong progression from giving Barrett more volume. There was no increase in stats that aren’t directly attributable to more shots. By eFG logic, they should just give the ball to Fournier and let him shoot. And maybe last season was more about getting Barrett comfortable with the ball in his hands. Maybe this year with a training camp to implement an offense around Barrett will help with the assists and spread the floor. Maybe Randle will rub an effect PNR/PNP with Barrett.

My issue is it is a lot of maybes for a depreciating asset. Restricted free agency may bail the Knicks out on overpaying. And maybe that is an answer. I worry that his value a player and a trading chip will not be higher at the end of the season than it is now.

I can re-state all the things I like about Barrett and if he comes out shooting 37% from 3, 73% from FT and 47% from the field with 5+ assists, I will retract all comments and buy my girls pink Barrett jerseys.

For me, it seems more likely that a player like Sharpe will do that then Barrett.

Philc1 wrote:

technomaster wrote:Being a Duke player mostly gives the players a high floor - even recent busts seem capable of having 10 year careers if they want to keep going: See Shelden Williams; Justise Winslow; Marvin Bagley; Austin Rivers. Cam Reddish (ha!).

I don't think it's fair to expect him to be a consistent 35-40% 3pt shooter. He's basically a player that learned how to shoot while in the NBA. I think his perimeter shooting will come and go from season to season, and that's okay. He's not a natural shooter - but he is a scorer and he finds ways to get points. He'll be one of those guys that gets his points in different ways from game to game.

I think a good best case projecting would be a player like Lebron James (ha!).
Career 34.6% from 3. 29% as a rookie to a high 41% midway through his career; 36% this past season. (RJ is currently .357 for his career)
73% from the FT line. Low of 67% in a recent season, peaking at 78%. (RJ is currently .697 for his career)

Where RJ really has significant room for improvement is his 2pt%/finishing - I think this is where he has the opportunity to make great strides. He can do it himself by working on his post up game and finishing better; his coach could do a better job on clearing things out for him in isolation; the team can install a center that can shoot a little for better spacing.

Lebron shot ~48% from 2pt range over his first 3 seasons, then has regularly made ~55% since, and ~60% over the last decade of his career. Lebron is a force of a nature and is a complete freak in that regard. I think RJ more reasonably can target something along the lines of Kobe Bryant or Paul Pierce's career .478 from 2pt range. (RJ is currently .442 for his career)

The biggest thing with RJ is for a significant stretch of games last year he seemed to get a lot quicker. That slashing move to the basket where he goes left is his bread and butter and when he was doing that with increased speed he was literally unstoppable. That’s when he had 46 against the Heat

Players don’t suddenly get faster. Maybe something happened like Randle decided to clear out the lane instead of camping 6 ft from the basket like he normally does when he isn’t dribbling up the length of the court

Well, it be like expecting your posts to suddenly make sense. But you do bring up a good point about RJ but I thought by the sound of many things Randle just does everything wrong? RJ was blowing by defenders but finishing with explosion which is a confidence thing, and that defense respected the shooters and RJ finding them? Who else was hitting that night? Was it fornier? IQ? What about his midrange shot? Defense had to stay on him? That play where he gets the ball and comes across the lane and stops was effective. But then he blast to the rim? RJ did not just wake up and start doing all of that or Randle just get out of the way. its a 5 man game and the defense gave it to him but he executed it. Was jimmy on the court and were they doing man to man that night? That was a statement game and I won’t apologize that I was pumped to see RJ stand up that night. RJ got better every year. Seemingly every month in some fashion.

RJ comes in to a new season with a new confidence. OBI and IQ should have some increased refined skills with the confidence that they were able to implement. Three young players that developed last season is exiciting.
Thibs has to coach Randle better. He said this. HE got his money. Thats not an issue. His role might be. Fans think its an ego thing and he won’t give up his status as “the man”. Thats a bad look if its accurate. His role has to diminish if the team is to succeed. The fan think he does not know this or its been presented?
He put the team on his shoulders and last year it need not have been. We don’t know his source of frustration but assume the worst. OBviously thats not my take. At his age he is in his prime and found his spot. Now he has to have some leadership growth and now do better to delegate. What is unknown is the coaching aspect. Is he following his instructions and not executing or as some suggested being stubbornly selfish? We accused Melo of this all too often which or may not have been always accurate.

I have a vision of Randle feeding a flying Obi down a fast break……….