martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I don't care what statistics you show - at best he's an average/passable defensive player. He does have the tools and at times - the focus. Unfortunately there have been too many times we all see him loafing, not hustling, arguing with officials, etc... So at best he is an inconsistent defensive player with non-sustaining effort. I don't ever recall him locking any of the better players up. Team-wise - the fact that he doesn't show consistent effort is an issue. It's okay to get beat or play poorly - but it's no bueno to be recorded loafing on multiple occasions.

And at 21mm this year, 23mm next year this is what you get. You get a player with emotions who had a few bad spots and they are etched in our minds. He has room to imporove his demeanor. That I won’t argue.
Last year all NBA Randle was the ceiling and he set the bar high. But he is not paid like that.
You won’t get a better player in return for him. That player will be flawed unless we draft a stud and he is “the man”.

He is paid like the 2nd or 3rd option. RJ is growing before us, now we need more condensed talent.
We are prime for a trade and perhaps a PG that can solve our chemistry issues.
Changing out Randle for an unknown is change but migth not be improvement. OBI needs the outside shot to hit. Then he can step up.

A bit of a correction. Although he will likely only get $23M next year, he counts as $26M due to likely bonuses (which seem more and more unlikely the longer I watch him play). So the cap hit will average out to about $29M over the course of the deal.

This is not correct. Every year they reassess if player bonuses are likely or not and they adjust the cap numbers. I don't have the link handy cut Larry Coon and his cap insights note this.

They adjust the cap numbers after the fact, but my understanding is that the number still carries over the next year. Even if it is an unlikely bonus, I thought the team must have the cap figure for the following year must take into account the possibility the player hits those benchmarks.

My understanding is this: If Randle has base salary of $23M and $3M in bonuses that are considered unlikely, his cap hit will be $23M.

https://cbabreakdown.com/compensation#:~:text=A%20team%20must%20have%20room,of%20the%20player's%20Base%20Compensation.

This seems on point

Likely vs. Unlikely Bonuses — A performance bonus is a Likely Bonus when the bonus would be earned if the player’s (or team’s performance) was identical to the prior year. For a rookie, a veteran who did not play in the prior year, or a player who has joined an expansion team and could earn a performance bonus based on his team’s performance, that bonus is a Likely Bonus when it is, well, “likely” to be earned. All other performance bonuses are Unlikely Bonuses. The CBA includes a detailed dispute resolution if the NBA or the players’ association cannot agree on whether a bonus is likely to be earned.

A team must have room for every performance bonus — whether a Likely Bonus or an Unlikely Bonus — that a player may earn in the first year of his contract in order for a contract to be approved. But no contract may include Unlikely Bonuses in any season that exceeds 15% of the player’s Base Compensation.

Once approved, only Likely Bonuses are actually included in the team’s team salary for salary cap purposes.

Once a player achieves an Unlikely Bonus, by definition that bonus is treated as a Likely Bonus for the next salary cap year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/new-york-knicks/julius-randle-15359/

Spotrac tends to be more accurate than not. They have 2.376MM as "Likely" incentives, meaning that the Knicks need to count it as salary for cap purposes.

jrodmc wrote:

Nalod wrote:If he hits those bonus's he is worth every penny of it.
If not he is worth the 23mm. He is like 43rd best paid player. With new salaries that is not likely to increase even with his scale increasing.

Keep hammering at this because we assume removing him solves our issues. It does not. We could bring in another player who might be worse. The fact we know is randle might have been a dick to fans, but how is he as a teammate and in the lockerroom for his coach? We can't just make up stuff to further an agenda.

Personally His thumbs down and comments to fans did not bother me. Its a fans right to boo. Its his right to say he don't like it. End of the day he did not request a trade, he in fact kind of got his attitude back in line and has played better since. Play well and the fans will adore it. Its been a tough season for the team. As I have said there are chemistry issues. He is part of it no doubt, but not the sole cause either.
Today Berman states Evan finally figured things out. stands to reason that, Kemba's inconsistent play, Obi shot left him, IQ slow start, RJ's rise in stature, and injuries all contributed as well. Mitch started out of shape due to injury and caution to not reinjure the foot, Norlens never got it going this year, and Thibs stubborness which can also be an asset when things are good. Same for all coaches though.

The blame game is hard to pinpoint and really pragmatically useless. Hindsight is easy.

+1
Unca Nalod with the reasoned, rational response to all this hate.

I've never entirely gotten the bold though. Randle was okay pumping up Bullock, but RJ's rise pisses him off? Does EF hitting threes at around a league high rate piss him off as well? Like you say, conjecture at best. What I see, game after game, is a guy who's overly tired and overreacting sometimes to not getting calls when he's getting beaten up. Not a good look, but hey, we're not the ones taking the beating. Yeah, yeah, yeah, everyone should play the game silky smooth and elusively quick with cat like moves. KD/Curry league.

Here's some more conjecture, maybe $100MM Randle is tired of getting nocalls like $8MM Randle?

No matter what, I sure miss the plane to the gym Randle...

Not saying he is pissed. Its on court chemistry. Not "king of the castle chemistry". That might be but the diva act is more with refs then with this team. Early on Evan was slow to hit his spots/Cuts (real hoop talk) and it frustrated him as he had to hold the ball longer and it caused turnovers. That RJ now has the ball more now others have to move without also. Add in Kemba deferring and you have "chemistry issues". Many fans see issues as personality issues. That might exist but its rare to really see it and really I don't care. Play ball.

martin wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I don't care what statistics you show - at best he's an average/passable defensive player. He does have the tools and at times - the focus. Unfortunately there have been too many times we all see him loafing, not hustling, arguing with officials, etc... So at best he is an inconsistent defensive player with non-sustaining effort. I don't ever recall him locking any of the better players up. Team-wise - the fact that he doesn't show consistent effort is an issue. It's okay to get beat or play poorly - but it's no bueno to be recorded loafing on multiple occasions.

And at 21mm this year, 23mm next year this is what you get. You get a player with emotions who had a few bad spots and they are etched in our minds. He has room to imporove his demeanor. That I won’t argue.
Last year all NBA Randle was the ceiling and he set the bar high. But he is not paid like that.
You won’t get a better player in return for him. That player will be flawed unless we draft a stud and he is “the man”.

He is paid like the 2nd or 3rd option. RJ is growing before us, now we need more condensed talent.
We are prime for a trade and perhaps a PG that can solve our chemistry issues.
Changing out Randle for an unknown is change but migth not be improvement. OBI needs the outside shot to hit. Then he can step up.

A bit of a correction. Although he will likely only get $23M next year, he counts as $26M due to likely bonuses (which seem more and more unlikely the longer I watch him play). So the cap hit will average out to about $29M over the course of the deal.

This is not correct. Every year they reassess if player bonuses are likely or not and they adjust the cap numbers. I don't have the link handy cut Larry Coon and his cap insights note this.

They adjust the cap numbers after the fact, but my understanding is that the number still carries over the next year. Even if it is an unlikely bonus, I thought the team must have the cap figure for the following year must take into account the possibility the player hits those benchmarks.

My understanding is this: If Randle has base salary of $23M and $3M in bonuses that are considered unlikely, his cap hit will be $23M.

https://cbabreakdown.com/compensation#:~:text=A%20team%20must%20have%20room,of%20the%20player's%20Base%20Compensation.

This seems on point

Likely vs. Unlikely Bonuses — A performance bonus is a Likely Bonus when the bonus would be earned if the player’s (or team’s performance) was identical to the prior year. For a rookie, a veteran who did not play in the prior year, or a player who has joined an expansion team and could earn a performance bonus based on his team’s performance, that bonus is a Likely Bonus when it is, well, “likely” to be earned. All other performance bonuses are Unlikely Bonuses. The CBA includes a detailed dispute resolution if the NBA or the players’ association cannot agree on whether a bonus is likely to be earned.

A team must have room for every performance bonus — whether a Likely Bonus or an Unlikely Bonus — that a player may earn in the first year of his contract in order for a contract to be approved. But no contract may include Unlikely Bonuses in any season that exceeds 15% of the player’s Base Compensation.

Once approved, only Likely Bonuses are actually included in the team’s team salary for salary cap purposes.

Once a player achieves an Unlikely Bonus, by definition that bonus is treated as a Likely Bonus for the next salary cap year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/new-york-knicks/julius-randle-15359/

Spotrac tends to be more accurate than not. They have 2.376MM as "Likely" incentives, meaning that the Knicks need to count it as salary for cap purposes.

But my understanding is that they reevaluate yearly, so Spotrac wouldn't have updated the bonus to unlikely yet for upcoming seasons, right?

Ah, yeah, I think you are right. So if it is tied to playoffs, all star, all NBA, what was likely last year is not likely this year. But if it is tied to 20 and 10 it is likely.

martin wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

martin wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I don't care what statistics you show - at best he's an average/passable defensive player. He does have the tools and at times - the focus. Unfortunately there have been too many times we all see him loafing, not hustling, arguing with officials, etc... So at best he is an inconsistent defensive player with non-sustaining effort. I don't ever recall him locking any of the better players up. Team-wise - the fact that he doesn't show consistent effort is an issue. It's okay to get beat or play poorly - but it's no bueno to be recorded loafing on multiple occasions.

And at 21mm this year, 23mm next year this is what you get. You get a player with emotions who had a few bad spots and they are etched in our minds. He has room to imporove his demeanor. That I won’t argue.
Last year all NBA Randle was the ceiling and he set the bar high. But he is not paid like that.
You won’t get a better player in return for him. That player will be flawed unless we draft a stud and he is “the man”.

He is paid like the 2nd or 3rd option. RJ is growing before us, now we need more condensed talent.
We are prime for a trade and perhaps a PG that can solve our chemistry issues.
Changing out Randle for an unknown is change but migth not be improvement. OBI needs the outside shot to hit. Then he can step up.

A bit of a correction. Although he will likely only get $23M next year, he counts as $26M due to likely bonuses (which seem more and more unlikely the longer I watch him play). So the cap hit will average out to about $29M over the course of the deal.

This is not correct. Every year they reassess if player bonuses are likely or not and they adjust the cap numbers. I don't have the link handy cut Larry Coon and his cap insights note this.

They adjust the cap numbers after the fact, but my understanding is that the number still carries over the next year. Even if it is an unlikely bonus, I thought the team must have the cap figure for the following year must take into account the possibility the player hits those benchmarks.

My understanding is this: If Randle has base salary of $23M and $3M in bonuses that are considered unlikely, his cap hit will be $23M.

https://cbabreakdown.com/compensation#:~:text=A%20team%20must%20have%20room,of%20the%20player's%20Base%20Compensation.

This seems on point

Likely vs. Unlikely Bonuses — A performance bonus is a Likely Bonus when the bonus would be earned if the player’s (or team’s performance) was identical to the prior year. For a rookie, a veteran who did not play in the prior year, or a player who has joined an expansion team and could earn a performance bonus based on his team’s performance, that bonus is a Likely Bonus when it is, well, “likely” to be earned. All other performance bonuses are Unlikely Bonuses. The CBA includes a detailed dispute resolution if the NBA or the players’ association cannot agree on whether a bonus is likely to be earned.

A team must have room for every performance bonus — whether a Likely Bonus or an Unlikely Bonus — that a player may earn in the first year of his contract in order for a contract to be approved. But no contract may include Unlikely Bonuses in any season that exceeds 15% of the player’s Base Compensation.

Once approved, only Likely Bonuses are actually included in the team’s team salary for salary cap purposes.

Once a player achieves an Unlikely Bonus, by definition that bonus is treated as a Likely Bonus for the next salary cap year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/new-york-knicks/julius-randle-15359/

Spotrac tends to be more accurate than not. They have 2.376MM as "Likely" incentives, meaning that the Knicks need to count it as salary for cap purposes.

But my understanding is that they reevaluate yearly, so Spotrac wouldn't have updated the bonus to unlikely yet for upcoming seasons, right?

Ah, yeah, I think you are right. So if it is tied to playoffs, all star, all NBA, what was likely last year is not likely this year. But if it is tied to 20 and 10 it is likely.

I could be wrong but my understanding is for the Knicks, his incentives for NEXT year will be qualified as unlikely, but if Randle is traded, they get reevaluated for the trade purposes depending on the outgoing team situation.

Seems qualitative to some degree after a trade.

EwingsGlass wrote:

martin wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

martin wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I don't care what statistics you show - at best he's an average/passable defensive player. He does have the tools and at times - the focus. Unfortunately there have been too many times we all see him loafing, not hustling, arguing with officials, etc... So at best he is an inconsistent defensive player with non-sustaining effort. I don't ever recall him locking any of the better players up. Team-wise - the fact that he doesn't show consistent effort is an issue. It's okay to get beat or play poorly - but it's no bueno to be recorded loafing on multiple occasions.

And at 21mm this year, 23mm next year this is what you get. You get a player with emotions who had a few bad spots and they are etched in our minds. He has room to imporove his demeanor. That I won’t argue.
Last year all NBA Randle was the ceiling and he set the bar high. But he is not paid like that.
You won’t get a better player in return for him. That player will be flawed unless we draft a stud and he is “the man”.

He is paid like the 2nd or 3rd option. RJ is growing before us, now we need more condensed talent.
We are prime for a trade and perhaps a PG that can solve our chemistry issues.
Changing out Randle for an unknown is change but migth not be improvement. OBI needs the outside shot to hit. Then he can step up.

A bit of a correction. Although he will likely only get $23M next year, he counts as $26M due to likely bonuses (which seem more and more unlikely the longer I watch him play). So the cap hit will average out to about $29M over the course of the deal.

This is not correct. Every year they reassess if player bonuses are likely or not and they adjust the cap numbers. I don't have the link handy cut Larry Coon and his cap insights note this.

They adjust the cap numbers after the fact, but my understanding is that the number still carries over the next year. Even if it is an unlikely bonus, I thought the team must have the cap figure for the following year must take into account the possibility the player hits those benchmarks.

My understanding is this: If Randle has base salary of $23M and $3M in bonuses that are considered unlikely, his cap hit will be $23M.

https://cbabreakdown.com/compensation#:~:text=A%20team%20must%20have%20room,of%20the%20player's%20Base%20Compensation.

This seems on point

Likely vs. Unlikely Bonuses — A performance bonus is a Likely Bonus when the bonus would be earned if the player’s (or team’s performance) was identical to the prior year. For a rookie, a veteran who did not play in the prior year, or a player who has joined an expansion team and could earn a performance bonus based on his team’s performance, that bonus is a Likely Bonus when it is, well, “likely” to be earned. All other performance bonuses are Unlikely Bonuses. The CBA includes a detailed dispute resolution if the NBA or the players’ association cannot agree on whether a bonus is likely to be earned.

A team must have room for every performance bonus — whether a Likely Bonus or an Unlikely Bonus — that a player may earn in the first year of his contract in order for a contract to be approved. But no contract may include Unlikely Bonuses in any season that exceeds 15% of the player’s Base Compensation.

Once approved, only Likely Bonuses are actually included in the team’s team salary for salary cap purposes.

Once a player achieves an Unlikely Bonus, by definition that bonus is treated as a Likely Bonus for the next salary cap year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/new-york-knicks/julius-randle-15359/

Spotrac tends to be more accurate than not. They have 2.376MM as "Likely" incentives, meaning that the Knicks need to count it as salary for cap purposes.

But my understanding is that they reevaluate yearly, so Spotrac wouldn't have updated the bonus to unlikely yet for upcoming seasons, right?

Ah, yeah, I think you are right. So if it is tied to playoffs, all star, all NBA, what was likely last year is not likely this year. But if it is tied to 20 and 10 it is likely.

I could be wrong but my understanding is for the Knicks, his incentives for NEXT year will be qualified as unlikely, but if Randle is traded, they get reevaluated for the trade purposes depending on the outgoing team situation.

Seems qualitative to some degree after a trade.

jskinny35 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I don't care what statistics you show - at best he's an average/passable defensive player. He does have the tools and at times - the focus. Unfortunately there have been too many times we all see him loafing, not hustling, arguing with officials, etc... So at best he is an inconsistent defensive player with non-sustaining effort. I don't ever recall him locking any of the better players up. Team-wise - the fact that he doesn't show consistent effort is an issue. It's okay to get beat or play poorly - but it's no bueno to be recorded loafing on multiple occasions.

And at 21mm this year, 23mm next year this is what you get. You get a player with emotions who had a few bad spots and they are etched in our minds. He has room to imporove his demeanor. That I won’t argue.
Last year all NBA Randle was the ceiling and he set the bar high. But he is not paid like that.
You won’t get a better player in return for him. That player will be flawed unless we draft a stud and he is “the man”.

He is paid like the 2nd or 3rd option. RJ is growing before us, now we need more condensed talent.
We are prime for a trade and perhaps a PG that can solve our chemistry issues.
Changing out Randle for an unknown is change but migth not be improvement. OBI needs the outside shot to hit. Then he can step up.

Truth is I don't like Randle's style of play, demeanor/composure and didn't even last year... but he shot the ball so well, hustled, played really hard and overachieved. I believed he wouldn't be able to sustain it unless we landed another big fish... and had concerns he wouldn't be able to step back into a lesser role. I don't think he's overpaid as he earned that contract last season. I also agree it would be very difficult to find a similarly productive player that would make us much better. I do think between his slow style of play and multiple outbursts that he isn't learning or adjusting so I think we need to move on from him. Doing so would likely mean we would take a step back initially - as RJ wants the role but is more inefficient and inconsistent then last season. I think Toppin and Reddish playing his minutes would be fine as long as we're not looking for a stat comparison. Both of those players still have a lot of work to do and unsure that Thibs will develop either one of them (seems like he doesn't like either much).

But the tempo would pick up, more ball movement, and the chemistry/comraderies seems better when he's not in the game clearly.

So ideally I would look to move him for either a PG, moving up in the draft (eg while taking back bad contract) or another young player/future pick with high potential. I really don't see us going into next season with Randle as our starting PF. I think last year showed us the ceiling with Randle being a primary ball handler and while I like players suggested like Brunson - don't believe Randle will defer to him or Thibs adjustments. I think he could do that with Lillard/D. Mitchell or another veteran PG - but then you either gut the entire bench or trade RJ to land that player (that's a no for me).

this is a fair analysis

TPercy wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I don't care what statistics you show - at best he's an average/passable defensive player. He does have the tools and at times - the focus. Unfortunately there have been too many times we all see him loafing, not hustling, arguing with officials, etc... So at best he is an inconsistent defensive player with non-sustaining effort. I don't ever recall him locking any of the better players up. Team-wise - the fact that he doesn't show consistent effort is an issue. It's okay to get beat or play poorly - but it's no bueno to be recorded loafing on multiple occasions.

And at 21mm this year, 23mm next year this is what you get. You get a player with emotions who had a few bad spots and they are etched in our minds. He has room to imporove his demeanor. That I won’t argue.
Last year all NBA Randle was the ceiling and he set the bar high. But he is not paid like that.
You won’t get a better player in return for him. That player will be flawed unless we draft a stud and he is “the man”.

He is paid like the 2nd or 3rd option. RJ is growing before us, now we need more condensed talent.
We are prime for a trade and perhaps a PG that can solve our chemistry issues.
Changing out Randle for an unknown is change but migth not be improvement. OBI needs the outside shot to hit. Then he can step up.

Truth is I don't like Randle's style of play, demeanor/composure and didn't even last year... but he shot the ball so well, hustled, played really hard and overachieved. I believed he wouldn't be able to sustain it unless we landed another big fish... and had concerns he wouldn't be able to step back into a lesser role. I don't think he's overpaid as he earned that contract last season. I also agree it would be very difficult to find a similarly productive player that would make us much better. I do think between his slow style of play and multiple outbursts that he isn't learning or adjusting so I think we need to move on from him. Doing so would likely mean we would take a step back initially - as RJ wants the role but is more inefficient and inconsistent then last season. I think Toppin and Reddish playing his minutes would be fine as long as we're not looking for a stat comparison. Both of those players still have a lot of work to do and unsure that Thibs will develop either one of them (seems like he doesn't like either much).

But the tempo would pick up, more ball movement, and the chemistry/comraderies seems better when he's not in the game clearly.

So ideally I would look to move him for either a PG, moving up in the draft (eg while taking back bad contract) or another young player/future pick with high potential. I really don't see us going into next season with Randle as our starting PF. I think last year showed us the ceiling with Randle being a primary ball handler and while I like players suggested like Brunson - don't believe Randle will defer to him or Thibs adjustments. I think he could do that with Lillard/D. Mitchell or another veteran PG - but then you either gut the entire bench or trade RJ to land that player (that's a no for me).

this is a fair analysis

I feel a lot of the same way except that I think he can be a better version of of Draymond Green. And for me the question is whether he accepts the secondary or tertiary position on a competitive squad or if he needs to be the best player on a losing team. I think that identity crisis is occurring as we speak. That said, the entire team appears to be re-identifying itself in a manner that I like.

The poor shot selection is a key indicator as you say. I basically want to eliminate that 18 foot fadeaway jump shot from his repertoire. I also want to encourage him to get 15 assists in a game. He doesn’t have a Curry to pass to… or does he? He wouldn’t know cause he mostly passes to Fournier.

Ball movement and shot selection are key for me. I feels like someone hacked the teams fancy shooting computers and screwed up the entire teams’ three point shot. They all need to hit the gym and work on those threes. The difference between Randle shooting 40% from 3 and 3% from 3 makes it a question if he should even be taking 3s.

Needs to find that 3 again.

martin wrote:

Philc1 wrote:Wondering if there is some way to dump Randle’s contract

The team looks much better without him. There,s more ball movement and pace. No more of his one on one low posts with throw aways, losing the ball, stupid turnovers and terrible shots. Would love to see the team without him next year!

EwingsGlass wrote:Portland has the projected 7 & 9 picks this year. If it meant keep Lillard happy, I think there is a trade there to get them Randle and some vets for expiring contracts (Ewww Bledsoe and Winslow expire in 2023). Bledsoe Winslow 7, 9 and a future 1 for Randle and the 12?

Heck I would seriously consider Bledsoe Winslow 7, 9 and a future 1 for Randle and the 12