EwingsGlass wrote:I’m looking at wingspan and defensive prowess and neither makes me excited. You have to at least beat Elfrid’s defense before I replace Elf. I see Elf as the #2 PG that happens to play with the first unit in the first quarter. Ball can replace Elf in that role without giving up much, except for Elf’s ability to attack the paint. But, my major complaint was that I preferred RJ having that role anyway. Ball can spread the floor some with his shooting, create ball movement, be spectacular in transition and be a lead defender on the perimeter with the length to shorten the floor.

Norman Powell is 6’3 with a 6’11 wingspan and a 38” vertical. UFA. Shoots 40% from 3.

Wingspan
Ball 6’9
Barrett 6’10
Powell 6’11
Randle 7’0
Robinson/Noel 7’4

If you thought this years defense was good...that’s just a lot of arm for guys to shoot over with 4 guys that can shoot 38% from 3.

I mean. It’s not easy to check and I could be wrong, but Philly is the only team I can think of with that kind of length.

Ball's defense isn't what it is perceived on reputation to be.

EwingsGlass wrote:

ramtour420 wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

ramtour420 wrote:Let me try to sell you Ball. The thing is this is likely our last year with cap space to sign a big name.PG being our biggest weakness to boot. Once we are capped out trying to retain the main cogs we are likely going to only have the vets minimums and the MLE. You cannot bring in any even potential difference makers at that point. If we sign career backups now instead of one such potential difference maker( just think about what Thibs and our development staff can do with Ball)it will be a wasted opportunity. That's why

I get the Ball argument, it's wishful thinking about his potential over his production.

But he might be in that category of player in which you're paying a high price for potential, which often doesn't pan out.

The draft is the place to prospect. Euro-players on team friendly deals is for prospecting. And as much as Randle might be a poster boy for what people hope for from Ball, he actually arrived on the Knicks on a deal that somewhat reflected this.

I don't see Ball as a perfect fit for the Knicks needs (Conley is a VERY good fit from a pure b-ball standpoint, lowry to a little lesser degree), and a lottery ticket to boot.

Just have no infatuation with this guy. Smells of a career 'what if' to me.

Remember when Randle started shooting 3's a couple of seasons ago? at like 29%? Well Ball also used to shoot it horribly. Randle worked on his shot because it was a weakness. Ball worked on his shot because it was a weakness. That smells more like another signing of a soon to be star player because they work on their game. Just need the right coach/system.

This matches my thoughts. I think his skill set would work well with an offense based around Randle/Barrett. I think he will be more productive here than in NO. That said, if all you got was a 3&D PG, I am still good. I am buying the upside which may be All Star caliber.

I think we're all witnessing in real time the last 30 games what a penetrating PG can do for Randle/Barrett and this offense.

Maybe we should believe our eyes and the scores and the metrics.

Knickoftime wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:I’m looking at wingspan and defensive prowess and neither makes me excited. You have to at least beat Elfrid’s defense before I replace Elf. I see Elf as the #2 PG that happens to play with the first unit in the first quarter. Ball can replace Elf in that role without giving up much, except for Elf’s ability to attack the paint. But, my major complaint was that I preferred RJ having that role anyway. Ball can spread the floor some with his shooting, create ball movement, be spectacular in transition and be a lead defender on the perimeter with the length to shorten the floor.

Norman Powell is 6’3 with a 6’11 wingspan and a 38” vertical. UFA. Shoots 40% from 3.

Wingspan
Ball 6’9
Barrett 6’10
Powell 6’11
Randle 7’0
Robinson/Noel 7’4

If you thought this years defense was good...that’s just a lot of arm for guys to shoot over with 4 guys that can shoot 38% from 3.

I mean. It’s not easy to check and I could be wrong, but Philly is the only team I can think of with that kind of length.

Ball's defense isn't what it is perceived on reputation to be.

This article states that Lonzo’s defense is 29th (near worst) in the league when on the floor with Bledsoe and 5th best in the league when playing without Bledsoe. Defense being a team game, he suffers from Bledsoe’s poor D.
https://lonzowire.usatoday.com/2021/04/28/lonzo-ball-nba-scout-defense-pelicans-stats/

This article states that Lonzo is ranked the highest in taking the toughest defensive assignments in the league.
https://lonzowire.usatoday.com/2021/02/24/lonzo-ball-news-pelicans-defense-stats/

Makes me think in the Knicks system he would be quite good.

Knickoftime wrote:

Welpee wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Welpee wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Welpee wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

Lonza Ball isn't a better player than either of them.

The appeal of Lonzo Ball is you expect and HOPE he becomes a better player than he is.

He RIGHT now in his best season doesn't actually do anything better than either of them, and does a lot of things worse.

Exactly. Isn't that what good front offices are suppose to do, acquire players before they blow up?

Only IF hey blow up.

Sometimes its their job to identify NBA players with talent and fit into their cap situation that can help them win games.

Sometimes its not all about prospecting to try to field a '5 starters under 28' dynasty squad.

Payne is averaging 17 minutes per game off the bench. If you are going to extrapolate his production into full time, starter minutes that would be foolish. TJ McConnell is a scrappy, journeyman, career back up who looks good for stretches of time because of his hustle but isn't very talented and certainly not a starter in this league. Nice guy to have on your team, not a guy you give the keys to and anoint him as your starting point guard. Plus both of these guys are undersized at only 6'1".

And producing better than Ball.

Again, only asking for a 25m role from these guys. Are you asking 26-year-old Payne to increase his minutes, yes, but McConnell went from a 17-min player last season to a 25 mins player this season and his productively not only extrapolated, it improved.

Sometimes you need to put away superficial cliches about the path of NBA players and trust in their production and not unproven formulas.

Lonzo may not be Jason Kidd, but he certainly has way more upside than Payne or McConnell. And this is coming from someone who isn't really a big fan of Lonzo.

He does, but Lonzo Ball may be one of the NBA players who never reach their ceiling, which in fact describes the majority of them.

Knicks thinking might be changed. They may stop chasing upside that they can prospect for and can wait a few years ago and may start prioritizing adding productivity to a roster ready to begin climbing the ladder.

So you prefer rolling the dice on two mediocre, undersized point guards who have only proven to be good role players off the bench? To be clear, I'm not all in on Lonzo. If we have to dramatically overpay to get him, I say pass. But if can get him at around $15M on a deal that works for our big picture plan, I'd rather go that route. I have a lot more confidence in Lonzo elevating his game to near all-star levels versus expecting that from Payne or McConnell.

They aren't mediocre.

If they are, that's a bigger indictment on Ball, who isn't as productive.

And even when they struggled, both had a discernible high-end skill, distribution.

Look, I don't think an NBA GMs job is to be convinced that only guys under 25 and who were drafted high can become more than they've been. Teams can just outsource running their teams to Twitter then.

And you say "if" he blows up. If you could guarantee player development being a GM would be easy wouldn't it? If metrics were the be all and end all we should just hire a fantasy hoops expert. It's a calculated risk and you have to balance numbers with human analysis. Just like signing Randle was a calculated risk.

Yes, it would be. But there is no rule you have no other choice but to spend $15-20m dollars on a chance. a GM CAN control that.

And not for nothing, but Ball's height is a metric. His draft position is a metric. His age is a metric.

My human analysis doesn't match your human analysis is all. I don't see a guy you write a big check for muliple years for in advance of being worth it.

If you're locked into your fantasy basketball approach to hoops then you can't be convinced otherwise so this is a useless exercise. Back in the day Samuel Dalembert and Nazr Mohammed were similarly productive and were beasts in fantasy hoops. Weren't quite as valuable in real life hoops.

Let's see how Payne and McConnell do in the free agent market.

Ummmm, are we really playing he "have to use your eyes card on a guy drafted 2nd overall?

This is not like a G-league player you guys are scouting.

Payne is productive and he's one of the the NBA's best team, who love him.

What's your "value" argument against other than his career began badly?

Are your eyes telling you to doubt what you're seeing now or is your memory?

I would love Payne too as an 17 minutes per game backup point guard. Nobody is disputing Payne in that role. The question before us is this: we need a legit, long term solution at the starting point guard position. You seem to want to fall into the trap of thinking what Payne is doing for 17 minutes per game backing up Chris Paul on a talented Suns team will carry over to playing 30+ minutes for us as a starting point guard.

Yes, I would love to swap Payton for Payne. No, I don't want him instead of Lonzo if he can be acquired at a reasonable salary. At some point the Knicks have to stop shopping at the clearance aisle and bring in players with the potential to take us to the next level. There no guarantee Lonzo or Payne are that guy. But I think most people who follow hoops know the odds of Lonzo doing it is much greater then Payne. Sorry if everything can't be quantified or delivered in metrics to your satisfaction.

TPercy wrote:They are rotation level guards that will get exposed once you hand them a bigger role. Cmon guys we’ve seen this story a thousand times they arnt good enough. I get that Lonzo is limited as a perimeter player but being a young player who has improved every facet of his game since he’s been in the league is a testament to the fact that he isn’t even close to his final form. I’m not paying anything over 20-21+ but I trust him to improve just like Randle did.

Ball will improve but not like the historical level Randle has, and the question for me would be: Will he improve enough to both warrant his contract and, even better, outplay his contract.

Welpee wrote:

martin wrote:

TPercy wrote:They are rotation level guards that will get exposed once you hand them a bigger role. Cmon guys we’ve seen this story a thousand times they arnt good enough. I get that Lonzo is limited as a perimeter player but being a young player who has improved every facet of his game since he’s been in the league is a testament to the fact that he isn’t even close to his final form. I’m not paying anything over 20-21+ but I trust him to improve just like Randle did.

Ball will improve but not like the historical level Randle has, and the question for me would be: Will he improve enough to both warrant his contract and, even better, outplay his contract.

THAT is the big question. If we knew the answer we would probably have to pay even more to acquire Lonzo.

Generally the answer to that is in the work they put in. Its not a direct correlation, but its the best indicator. From all I see, he puts in the effort.

TPercy wrote:

martin wrote:

TPercy wrote:They are rotation level guards that will get exposed once you hand them a bigger role. Cmon guys we’ve seen this story a thousand times they arnt good enough. I get that Lonzo is limited as a perimeter player but being a young player who has improved every facet of his game since he’s been in the league is a testament to the fact that he isn’t even close to his final form. I’m not paying anything over 20-21+ but I trust him to improve just like Randle did.

Ball will improve but not like the historical level Randle has, and the question for me would be: Will he improve enough to both warrant his contract and, even better, outplay his contract.

Do we know that for sure? The difference between lakers and pelicans Lonzo is almost night and day. The 20-22m contract is around what Brogdon got paid and he played up to his contract within the first year despite being much older than Lonzo at his stage.

No? But like 1 guy a year go from a total albatross to MVP candidate?

TPercy wrote:

martin wrote:

TPercy wrote:They are rotation level guards that will get exposed once you hand them a bigger role. Cmon guys we’ve seen this story a thousand times they arnt good enough. I get that Lonzo is limited as a perimeter player but being a young player who has improved every facet of his game since he’s been in the league is a testament to the fact that he isn’t even close to his final form. I’m not paying anything over 20-21+ but I trust him to improve just like Randle did.

Ball will improve but not like the historical level Randle has, and the question for me would be: Will he improve enough to both warrant his contract and, even better, outplay his contract.

Do we know that for sure? The difference between lakers and pelicans Lonzo is almost night and day. The 20-22m contract is around what Brogdon got paid and he played up to his contract within the first year despite being much older than Lonzo at his stage.

TripleThreat wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:Sell me on Ball over UFA's Cameron Payne and TJ McConnell...

The floor is your's...

The first thing Brock Aller is going to try to do is "rent" the Knicks wide open cap space.

What that means is before the Knicks dig deep into free agency and/or potential sign and trades, they are going to

1) Try to involve themselves as the third or fourth team in a large trade, as a cap space facilitator, trying to take in an undesirable contract for draft picks/young assets

And/Or

2) Absorb a non desirable contract who might be useful to the Knicks in some way plus the bonus of taking in draft pick(s) and/or young assets to lift that contract off the hands of another team ( likely a team in a cap crunch situation)

Aller is going to make a list of useful/desirable players and run metrics on their actual market value. If the asking price exceeds the market value, Aller will tell Rose to keep moving past that player. Whether Rose listens is another matter.

What will Ball and/or Payne and/or McConnell cost? In possible trade compensation, total years, AAV and total cap hit?

No one needs to sell you on Payne/Connell over Ball, YOU NEED TO SELL BROCK ALLER ON WHY ANY OF THOSE OPTIONS ARE BETTER THAN "RENTING" SAID CAP SPACE.

Ball will want the max. Do I think he's worth the max? No. Do I believe Aller assesses Ball as worth the max? No. Will Leon Rose see Ball as worth the max? Hard to say. The role of GM has to factor into issues that extend beyond market value ( i.e. overall valuation of the franchises, TV deals, sponsorships, agent relationships, etc, etc)

The Knicks best position is to wait. Let teams approach them as the third or fourth team in a large trade or watch other teams spend their money first in FA and scour the 3rd to 5th Tier of FA for value signings. Also they have four picks. Draft the next McConnell or Ball instead.

Nearly all players are useful at a certain cost/price point. Noah would have been a value if he signed for 2 years/8 million with the 2nd year as a team option instead of that idiotic four year massive deal.

Some of you are in a rush to spend that cap space. Brock Aller is not. If I was in his shoes, I wouldn't be. No one here should be. Part of being aggressive in resource management is learning to embrace the lulls and dry moments between the frenetic kill shots.

Long time no see. Good to see you're doing alright.