Knickoftime wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

nixluva wrote:https://theknickswall.com/the-case-for-trading-draft-picks-480425dd66f3

I really like this writer Jeffrey Bellone of The Knicks Wall.

This is a detailed article with charts so I suggest going to read it but here's an excerpt:

The Knicks have a franchise player in Kristaps Porzingis. They need to be careful not to waste his prime playing years by avoiding trades for star talent at the cost of draft picks.
>Snip<
It seems the common thread among Knicks fans is woven with the idea that building a competitive team around Porzingis should be done by using future draft picks. Porzingis is only 21 years old (he’ll be 22 by the start of next season), the team is coming off a 31-win campaign, and Carmelo Anthony is presumably moving on to greener pastures. The team is not built to win now, so why acquire veteran pieces? Draft more young studs and let them develop alongside Porzingis, and together, they will become a future contender.

This logic is correct, until you start doing the math. The Knicks don’t have the luxury to wait for future draft picks to develop into elite talent to play with Porzingis. The clock is ticking. It takes a really long time for 18 year olds to become top players on contending teams, if they become top players at all.

There are eight teams that won at least 50 games last season. Looking at the three best players on each of those teams (using Value Over Replacement Player — VORP), none of the 24 players observed were younger than 24 years old last season. Each team had at least one of their star players in the thick of their prime (age 28):

>Chart<

If we project the Knicks roster ahead to 2020–21, when Kristaps would be 25 years old (and a potential free agent), and if we assume the Knicks keep Frank Ntilikina along with their 2018 and 2019 draft picks, we find a team that would have Porzingis and a trio of 20, 21, and 22 year olds. In other words, it is unlikely that any of the Knicks 2017, 2018, or 2019 draft picks would be ready to perform at a contending level by the time Porzingis is entering his prime-age seasons (age 25 and up).

When Kristaps Porzingis is ready to compete for a championship between the ages of 25–30, the Knicks’ future draft picks would still be in their developmental years until the tail end of that window.

The Knicks could speed up the process by trying to acquire a player like Kyrie Irving. The 25-year-old guard is already in his prime, with an upward trend fully possible. While his contract will be more expensive over the next two seasons than a rookie, his production will be far superior. Remember, rookies are cheap, but they start to get expensive (through qualifying offers and restricted free agency) around the time they are finally ready to compete at a championship level.

FiveThirtyEight projects the production of players over a five-year window. The Knicks fell to the eighth overall pick in the most recent draft, so let’s use a slightly higher pick to articulate the point. The fifth overall selection, De’Aaron Fox, projects to produce -0.3 wins above a replacement level player next season. Kyrie Irving projects to produce 5.6 wins. It is not until the 2022 season, five years from now, when Fox reaches his potential of about three wins per season. His ceiling never projects to be as high as Irving’s:

I agree and this is why I wanted to trade Kristaps. If we could of got 4 lottery picks in 2 years we could build the core peaking together at the right time

MEaning you wanted to trade him to Boston and Boston only for exactly what you wanted to trade him for and whether Boston had any interest in any of this is irrelevant.

Suns would of worked as well. I would of done Sacremento if they had interest, Orlando. Any bad team 2 for 1

How was any team but Boston giving the Knicks lottery picks in consecutive years?

You said four in two not four in three.

Suns, could of dealt Jackson and Bledsoe, they also own the Heats pick 8-30 next year , Sacremento both their picks 5 and 10, not just picks

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

Do we have to be a 50 win team by the time KP is 25? If we win 44, he's going to take a paycut to leave? He's not even good enough right now for me to obsess over losing him (though hopefully he will be eventually).

I guarantee that waiting on two more 19 yr olds over the next 2 years this team will NOT be a 50 win team. That's the general point being made in the article. The Knicks can accelerate the process greatly with adding a young stud like Kyrie by cashing in on the picks.

Why do we need to be a 50 win team in 2 years? I highly doubt Kyrie has that kind of impact any way but I don't even agree with the premise that we must win 50 games by next year.

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

Good post. Glad to see you finally came around. Lol I have always seen picks as "Assets". Not players that will guarantee a chip. And your right, the Knicks have not used their "Assets" well.

HofstraBBall wrote:

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

Good post. Glad to see you finally came around. Lol I have always seen picks as "Assets". Not players that will guarantee a chip. And your right, the Knicks have not used their "Assets" well.

Vmart wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Vmart wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Vmart wrote:Only idiots repeat the same mistakes again and again. Totally against giving up picks in any deal.

Yeah, the wolves and the hornets have terrible lottery histories.

You must really love the Knicks trade history. To many trades that never amounted to much.

I don't at all. But it's a logic trap to assume the opposite will work just because it's the opposite of what didn't work.

Not how it works.

The move is illogical for the Knicks simply because Kyrie isn't what you think he is. He is a good player he isn't going to put the Knicks over the top and he will stunt the growth curve of the young players.

I'm only willing to trade picks for a top two-three player. I'm not dropping picks on Kyrie he is a trap player. He has proven nothing without LeBron. His assists are the Stephon Marbury, Rose variety.
Adding Kyrie is basically putting the cart ahead of the horse.

Report came out this morning that 20+ teams reached out to the cavs regarding IRVING..but here's what I don't agree with

Report: Cavaliers want package for Irving similar to what Nuggets got for Melo

fck no

Jmpasq wrote:

nixluva wrote:https://theknickswall.com/the-case-for-trading-draft-picks-480425dd66f3

I really like this writer Jeffrey Bellone of The Knicks Wall.

This is a detailed article with charts so I suggest going to read it but here's an excerpt:

The Knicks have a franchise player in Kristaps Porzingis. They need to be careful not to waste his prime playing years by avoiding trades for star talent at the cost of draft picks.
>Snip<
It seems the common thread among Knicks fans is woven with the idea that building a competitive team around Porzingis should be done by using future draft picks. Porzingis is only 21 years old (he’ll be 22 by the start of next season), the team is coming off a 31-win campaign, and Carmelo Anthony is presumably moving on to greener pastures. The team is not built to win now, so why acquire veteran pieces? Draft more young studs and let them develop alongside Porzingis, and together, they will become a future contender.

This logic is correct, until you start doing the math. The Knicks don’t have the luxury to wait for future draft picks to develop into elite talent to play with Porzingis. The clock is ticking. It takes a really long time for 18 year olds to become top players on contending teams, if they become top players at all.

There are eight teams that won at least 50 games last season. Looking at the three best players on each of those teams (using Value Over Replacement Player — VORP), none of the 24 players observed were younger than 24 years old last season. Each team had at least one of their star players in the thick of their prime (age 28):

>Chart<

If we project the Knicks roster ahead to 2020–21, when Kristaps would be 25 years old (and a potential free agent), and if we assume the Knicks keep Frank Ntilikina along with their 2018 and 2019 draft picks, we find a team that would have Porzingis and a trio of 20, 21, and 22 year olds. In other words, it is unlikely that any of the Knicks 2017, 2018, or 2019 draft picks would be ready to perform at a contending level by the time Porzingis is entering his prime-age seasons (age 25 and up).

When Kristaps Porzingis is ready to compete for a championship between the ages of 25–30, the Knicks’ future draft picks would still be in their developmental years until the tail end of that window.

The Knicks could speed up the process by trying to acquire a player like Kyrie Irving. The 25-year-old guard is already in his prime, with an upward trend fully possible. While his contract will be more expensive over the next two seasons than a rookie, his production will be far superior. Remember, rookies are cheap, but they start to get expensive (through qualifying offers and restricted free agency) around the time they are finally ready to compete at a championship level.

FiveThirtyEight projects the production of players over a five-year window. The Knicks fell to the eighth overall pick in the most recent draft, so let’s use a slightly higher pick to articulate the point. The fifth overall selection, De’Aaron Fox, projects to produce -0.3 wins above a replacement level player next season. Kyrie Irving projects to produce 5.6 wins. It is not until the 2022 season, five years from now, when Fox reaches his potential of about three wins per season. His ceiling never projects to be as high as Irving’s:

I agree and this is why I wanted to trade Kristaps. If we could of got 4 lottery picks in 2 years we could build the core peaking together at the right time

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

Do we have to be a 50 win team by the time KP is 25? If we win 44, he's going to take a paycut to leave? He's not even good enough right now for me to obsess over losing him (though hopefully he will be eventually).

I guarantee that waiting on two more 19 yr olds over the next 2 years this team will NOT be a 50 win team. That's the general point being made in the article. The Knicks can accelerate the process greatly with adding a young stud like Kyrie by cashing in on the picks.

Those 2 19 yr olds sold separately could get you something of quality back as well as allow you to maintain many other pieces you have. If the Knicks pulled off the Melo trade and got back Harkless and freed up another 15 mil in cap space. At the draft next year they could package their top 8 lotto pick, Harkless & Lee/Lance and land a stud without having to give up future picks or other core pieces(Tobias Harris would be ideal). With the 15mil in cap space they could trade Willy(just an example) straight up for another proven stud.

Just one of the many many options the Knicks could have if they stood pat for a year or 2. Stay patient, collect assets and cherry pick smart quality trades of these assets for quality veterans to add to the young team. PGs like Conley, Lowry, Dragic, Bledsoe will all eventually become available as these teams look to retool rebuild. Maybe Frank is more of a SG and we could trade Hardaway for a PG preserving the cap space to add a 3rd player.

Bonn1997 wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:

Vmart wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Vmart wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

Vmart wrote:Only idiots repeat the same mistakes again and again. Totally against giving up picks in any deal.

Yeah, the wolves and the hornets have terrible lottery histories.

You must really love the Knicks trade history. To many trades that never amounted to much.

I don't at all. But it's a logic trap to assume the opposite will work just because it's the opposite of what didn't work.

Not how it works.

The move is illogical for the Knicks simply because Kyrie isn't what you think he is. He is a good player he isn't going to put the Knicks over the top and he will stunt the growth curve of the young players.

I'm only willing to trade picks for a top two-three player. I'm not dropping picks on Kyrie he is a trap player. He has proven nothing without LeBron. His assists are the Stephon Marbury, Rose variety.
Adding Kyrie is basically putting the cart ahead of the horse.

Report came out this morning that 20+ teams reached out to the cavs regarding IRVING..but here's what I don't agree with

Report: Cavaliers want package for Irving similar to what Nuggets got for Melo

fck no

+1

+64754687689

SupremeCommander wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

Do we have to be a 50 win team by the time KP is 25? If we win 44, he's going to take a paycut to leave? He's not even good enough right now for me to obsess over losing him (though hopefully he will be eventually).

I guarantee that waiting on two more 19 yr olds over the next 2 years this team will NOT be a 50 win team. That's the general point being made in the article. The Knicks can accelerate the process greatly with adding a young stud like Kyrie by cashing in on the picks.

Why do we need to be a 50 win team in 2 years? I highly doubt Kyrie has that kind of impact any way but I don't even agree with the premise that we must win 50 games by next year.

It's not that they reach 50 wins next year! The point is that 22 yr old Nitty, 21 yr old 2018 pick and 20 yr old 2019 pick won't be ready to help 25 yr old KP win 50. The development process is MUCH LONGER waiting for those picks to reach impact level.

What's magical about KP turning 25? He's going to take a paycut to play somewhere because we only won 47 games? I'd argue that if we overpay for Kyrie, it's actually going to take much longer to get to 50 wins anyway.

what's magical is nix's deeper level of understanding or whatever

there is literally no point in dealing away young assets and future picks right now when we don't have any semblance of a championship team on the roster currently... those guys need to be developed and they need minutes in order to develop... we're not one piece away or two... we still have essentially dead salary...

nixluva wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:We've got to acknowledge that Picks in and of themselves aren't guarantees. They're assets of HOPE and you can never really know what they'll turn into except for when you trade them in GOOD DEALS. The Knicks have made bad use of their picks in the past. In this case the team has a Franchise Stud in KP and some really good young players in development. They can CASH IN a couple of picks for a proven player like Kyrie who at 25 fits with KP at 22. The concept of 25 or younger isn't just about Future Draft Picks.

The article pointed out the top players on 50 win teams and really you won't find any 19, 20 or 21 yr old players. Knicks are right to be interested in a player like Kyrie to go along with KP and THJ in particular.

Do we have to be a 50 win team by the time KP is 25? If we win 44, he's going to take a paycut to leave? He's not even good enough right now for me to obsess over losing him (though hopefully he will be eventually).

I guarantee that waiting on two more 19 yr olds over the next 2 years this team will NOT be a 50 win team. That's the general point being made in the article. The Knicks can accelerate the process greatly with adding a young stud like Kyrie by cashing in on the picks.

Why do we need to be a 50 win team in 2 years? I highly doubt Kyrie has that kind of impact any way but I don't even agree with the premise that we must win 50 games by next year.

It's not that they reach 50 wins next year! The point is that 22 yr old Nitty, 21 yr old 2018 pick and 20 yr old 2019 pick won't be ready to help 25 yr old KP win 50. The development process is MUCH LONGER waiting for those picks to reach impact level.

What's magical about KP turning 25? He's going to take a paycut to play somewhere because we only won 47 games? I'd argue that if we overpay for Kyrie, it's actually going to take much longer to get to 50 wins anyway.

what's magical is nix's deeper level of understanding or whatever

there is literally no point in dealing away young assets and future picks right now when we don't have any semblance of a championship team on the roster currently... those guys need to be developed and they need minutes in order to develop... we're not one piece away or two... we still have essentially dead salary...

First off Phuck U! I didn't just spout off cliche BS as you're doing. I highlighted points from the article that use REAL WORLD examples to make a point. We all should value Picks. They have the most value BEFORE the Draft or if you are lucky enough to draft an IMPACT player. Obviously MOST picks don't fall into the Impact player category.

As for dealing a Pick for Kyrie there's a VERY LOW chance that we draft a kid as good or better than Kyrie. Just the nature of the Lottery alone makes it difficult. Then you have to WAIT YEARS for that 2018 and 2019 pick to develop enough to be an impact player. Kyrie is there now and together with KP, THJ and Willy you would have a great chance of reaching the 50 Win level and sooner than waiting on yet undrafted players to develop.

first off, stop being a child... telling me what I'm missing or whatever when I don't agree wiht you

second off, I'm sorry I don't believe trading the farm for someone who is 25 is a magic cure for the team

third off, I hope I get a chance to meet you one day internet tough guy