Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SocraticBallin22 wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:You look at Sixers, Suns, Lakers, Kings, Magic. These teams are in the lottery every of the last few years, tanking as much as they can in most cases. The Knicks on the other hand were royally screwed with the pre-Phil Jackson era of poor trades with sending out draft picks. We lost two draft picks in the process of these last 4 drafts. Yet, here we are stacking up pretty ok against these complete tank projects.

Lets define real lottery level talent. Players who in a re-draft would still go in the lottery, top 10 to be more precise. Players that are first or second all rookie team caliber for their draft class.

Re-draft 2013-14 class

Giannis
Gobert
CJ
Porter
Shroedor
Oladipo
Noel
Hardaway

We have 8th best player (arguably).

Re-draft 2015-16 class

Towns
Jokic
Porzingis
Booker
Turner
Russell

We have the third best player from this draft class.

Re-draft the 2016-17 class

Embiid
Brongdon
Ingram
Brown
Hield
Saric
Dunn
Hernangomez
Murray

Willy's about in the 8-10 range for this class

Now for this most recent draft lets add Simmons, since he is coming over as a rookie now. A little early to judge, so lets go by draft order plus adding Simmons

Simmons
Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Jackson
Fox
Isaac
Lauri
Smith (lets assume Dennis has proven he deserved to be drafted higher even though it's waaay early)
Ntilikina

So where we stand

Porzingis - 3rd best player of his class
Hardaway - 8th best player of his class
Willy - 8th best player of his class
Ntilikina - 10th pick type of projection

Like I said quietly, despite not having lost two draft picks in 4 years, we have been able to stock up on young talent that would be ranked very well amongst the draft class they entered the league with. I would argue for value, Porzingis (our best player) would only be second to Towns on the trade front. Say what you want about the dysfunction, the poor job Phil/Mills or whomever does, we have quietly put together 4 pieces that would make a good foundation for a re-build. Doesn't mean you win championships with these players in a year or two, but this is what re-building is all about.

Knicks need to be patient and keep drafting well. Lets see how Frank plays. I hope he shows why we picked him at 8. 7 foot wingspan, NBA level athleticims, 6'5 point guards do not grow on trees. He has a rare blend of talent, lets see if he can show why we drafted him. Youngest player in the league next year.

Way to take my idea with redrafting and run with it! We do have 4 core players with lottery talent under 25. Reasons to be optimistic.

Once the guy is on a big contract (Timmy), it doesn't really matter where he would have been drafted IMO. Melo would have been drafted in the lottery too! Ntilikina hasn't played yet. KP and Willy are legit lottery players on rookie contracts.

Is Timmy's contract big? He's getting 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid at his position. Timmy is basically being paid like a starter.

The knocks on the Hardway contract are pure emotion. If we had kept him the whole time and he followed the same trajectory he had at Atl think about it... last year guy goes to Dleague. Comes in this year really locked in. We trade the player in front of him (Korver) and he goes on to have the best 2nd half on the team and be neck in neck with the guy who's got the best +/- on the team (only Milsap and THjr were +). Oh.. and that translated to a playoff berth. Now Timmy's a FA, and the Nets come in and offer him $72mm over 4 years. Yea it sucks, but you dont balk and you keep your 25 year old shooting guard who is coming off a breakout season. You retain the talent first and foremost. You think Knick fans would want Timmy gone for that money? We would feel good about resigning "our guy" especially after his last season. But its the Knicks spending money so it must be stupid... (which is fair to be honest)

It's huge compared to a rookie contract. That's why I can't think of him as a lottery pick, and no team would trade a pick without lottery protection for him now. So he isn't equivalent to a lottery pick. You could say that Marbury, Francis, and maybe some of the other guys Isiah acquired would have been picked in the lottery when they were acquired. That's not really meaningful once they're past their rookie contracts. No, Timmy's contract isn't huge in terms of today's market for FAs who completed their rookie contracts but that's a separate discussion.

I believe the point of this is we have a young core of lottery quality talent. You are comparing THjr, a guy going into his first season out of a rookie contract to Marbury and Francis? Really? You would think because the Knicks paid Hardway he's been about 10 years, is 30+ and coming off injuries.

He's not in a rookie contract because he's been in the league 4 years. That being said paying him really isnt that big a deal as the roster is balanced with plenty of rookie(ish) deals like KP, Baker, Dotson, Ntilikina. Also the Knicks have a couple of great players on incredibly cap friendly deals. You know, high eff% high WS/48 type guys in Willy and OQuinn. You mention OQuinn as "OK" but he's every bit the player you say we need more of.

Marbury and Francis were 27 and 28 when we got them. What percentage of NBA players were lottery picks? It's 1/4 of the drafted players but then many second round picks don't stick around. Maybe 40%? Just guessing. If you're willing to outbid other teams, you can get "lottery pick talent" after they complete their rookie contracts. I remember when Isiah was running things, we'd acquire a new young player and people here would tell us it was the equivalent of not trading away first round picks. No, it's not. And getting Timmy is not equivalent to a lottery pick. He's still somewhat young and he's talented. If no equivalence to actual lottery picks on rookie contracts is being made and all you're saying is "we have a few talented young players," that's fine.

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SocraticBallin22 wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:You look at Sixers, Suns, Lakers, Kings, Magic. These teams are in the lottery every of the last few years, tanking as much as they can in most cases. The Knicks on the other hand were royally screwed with the pre-Phil Jackson era of poor trades with sending out draft picks. We lost two draft picks in the process of these last 4 drafts. Yet, here we are stacking up pretty ok against these complete tank projects.

Lets define real lottery level talent. Players who in a re-draft would still go in the lottery, top 10 to be more precise. Players that are first or second all rookie team caliber for their draft class.

Re-draft 2013-14 class

Giannis
Gobert
CJ
Porter
Shroedor
Oladipo
Noel
Hardaway

We have 8th best player (arguably).

Re-draft 2015-16 class

Towns
Jokic
Porzingis
Booker
Turner
Russell

We have the third best player from this draft class.

Re-draft the 2016-17 class

Embiid
Brongdon
Ingram
Brown
Hield
Saric
Dunn
Hernangomez
Murray

Willy's about in the 8-10 range for this class

Now for this most recent draft lets add Simmons, since he is coming over as a rookie now. A little early to judge, so lets go by draft order plus adding Simmons

Simmons
Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Jackson
Fox
Isaac
Lauri
Smith (lets assume Dennis has proven he deserved to be drafted higher even though it's waaay early)
Ntilikina

So where we stand

Porzingis - 3rd best player of his class
Hardaway - 8th best player of his class
Willy - 8th best player of his class
Ntilikina - 10th pick type of projection

Like I said quietly, despite not having lost two draft picks in 4 years, we have been able to stock up on young talent that would be ranked very well amongst the draft class they entered the league with. I would argue for value, Porzingis (our best player) would only be second to Towns on the trade front. Say what you want about the dysfunction, the poor job Phil/Mills or whomever does, we have quietly put together 4 pieces that would make a good foundation for a re-build. Doesn't mean you win championships with these players in a year or two, but this is what re-building is all about.

Knicks need to be patient and keep drafting well. Lets see how Frank plays. I hope he shows why we picked him at 8. 7 foot wingspan, NBA level athleticims, 6'5 point guards do not grow on trees. He has a rare blend of talent, lets see if he can show why we drafted him. Youngest player in the league next year.

Way to take my idea with redrafting and run with it! We do have 4 core players with lottery talent under 25. Reasons to be optimistic.

Once the guy is on a big contract (Timmy), it doesn't really matter where he would have been drafted IMO. Melo would have been drafted in the lottery too! Ntilikina hasn't played yet. KP and Willy are legit lottery players on rookie contracts.

Is Timmy's contract big? He's getting 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid at his position. Timmy is basically being paid like a starter.

The knocks on the Hardway contract are pure emotion. If we had kept him the whole time and he followed the same trajectory he had at Atl think about it... last year guy goes to Dleague. Comes in this year really locked in. We trade the player in front of him (Korver) and he goes on to have the best 2nd half on the team and be neck in neck with the guy who's got the best +/- on the team (only Milsap and THjr were +). Oh.. and that translated to a playoff berth. Now Timmy's a FA, and the Nets come in and offer him $72mm over 4 years. Yea it sucks, but you dont balk and you keep your 25 year old shooting guard who is coming off a breakout season. You retain the talent first and foremost. You think Knick fans would want Timmy gone for that money? We would feel good about resigning "our guy" especially after his last season. But its the Knicks spending money so it must be stupid... (which is fair to be honest)

It's huge compared to a rookie contract. That's why I can't think of him as a lottery pick, and no team would trade a pick without lottery protection for him now. So he isn't equivalent to a lottery pick. You could say that Marbury, Francis, and maybe some of the other guys Isiah acquired would have been picked in the lottery when they were acquired. That's not really meaningful once they're past their rookie contracts. No, Timmy's contract isn't huge in terms of today's market for FAs who completed their rookie contracts but that's a separate discussion.

I believe the point of this is we have a young core of lottery quality talent. You are comparing THjr, a guy going into his first season out of a rookie contract to Marbury and Francis? Really? You would think because the Knicks paid Hardway he's been about 10 years, is 30+ and coming off injuries.

He's not in a rookie contract because he's been in the league 4 years. That being said paying him really isnt that big a deal as the roster is balanced with plenty of rookie(ish) deals like KP, Baker, Dotson, Ntilikina. Also the Knicks have a couple of great players on incredibly cap friendly deals. You know, high eff% high WS/48 type guys in Willy and OQuinn. You mention OQuinn as "OK" but he's every bit the player you say we need more of.

Marbury and Francis were 27 and 28 when we got them. What percentage of NBA players were lottery picks? It's 1/4 of the drafted players but then many second round picks don't stick around. Maybe 40%? Just guessing. If you're willing to outbid other teams, you can get "lottery pick talent" after they complete their rookie contracts. I remember when Isiah was running things, we'd acquire a new young player and people here would tell us it was the equivalent of not trading away first round picks. No, it's not. And getting Timmy is not equivalent to a lottery pick. He's still somewhat young and he's talented. If no equivalence to actual lottery picks on rookie contracts is being made and all you're saying is "we have a few talented young players," that's fine.

Francis was absolutely done when we got him. Marbury cost a treasure chest including multiple picks and was chosen to revive the franchise. Timmy is a 24 year old guard coming off his best season with no injuries signed to a contract that puts him middle of the road. But yea... lets go with Francis and Marbury and call it more of the same.

Nalod wrote:Timmy paid at #14. In two years he will move down that list.
We assume he is untraceable because he won't play up to the contract.

He may be untradeable because the market is going to collapse very soon.

Teams are signing guys to shorter deals with higher AAV, to avoid having to go that 3rd or 4th year with them. The newer Designated Player Exception is going to have a ripple effect on all salaries, by positional value. This is one aspect of the new CBA that I don't think the owners really thought all the way through. This means cap space in the short term is going to choked out on a lot of teams. They are locking in ( in the same way, the OKC Thunder essentially locked in their roster when they traded for and extended Kendrick Perkins. )

He's got a trade kicker and he's only shown to have a decent half season under his belt.

Many teams that are top heavy have already cashed out future picks and assets to make their run now.

Baseline saying in economics and finance - The market always corrects itself.

Teams spent irresponsibly with the cap jumping without a smoothing option. Teams also backed up the truck trying to retain their core franchise or wish he was a franchise player.

The market is going to swing back the other way.

Other teams entering the tax zone, once they see the futility of watching the Warriors bulldoze everyone, will want out of the tax zone. GMs who made these moves will go to their owners, say "I tried dude, but Golden State is going to wipe everyone out for the next three years" Once those GMs jobs are secure again, the owners will green light them to dump. Meaning the few teams who aren't cap locked out will have competition to buy that "rented cap space"

Will Hardaway Jr be enough of a soft liability at that point to mitigate his contract dump? Because if you want to trade him, that's what it will mean. He busted and he's a bad contract moving forward.