GustavBahler wrote:Lee played better than your assesment of him this season considering the cluster **** that was the offense and the defense. Whatever flaws Lee may or may not have in his game, he is still good enough of a two way player to start, and shoots the 3 well enough to boost a team's average. That's what teams are looking for, especially on a reasonable contract. No one is going to beat down doors for Lee, at the same time, he's good enough to offer for a draft pick to a team that needs a deeper bench for a playoff run. Lee would make a good addition.
The enduring question for the non Knicks franchise in any trades is the VORP question ( Value Over Replacement Player)
Lee has 3 years and 36 million left on his contract. He's 31 years old right now.
Can the Pistons drafted someone at 12 who will give them 50 percent of what Lee would give them this year? 75 percent? 80 percent? 40 percent? Is this a value at the difference in the salary for this year ( the salary difference is pretty huge for a cost control rookie at that level of slotting and Lee's contract)
This question needs to be asked, not just this year, BUT FOR EVERY SINGLE YEAR OF LEE'S CONTRACT.
Maybe the rookie at 12 gives you just 40 percent of Lee's possible production. Then it jumps to 55 next year, and 75 the year after, factoring in Lee's likely further decline with age.
Here's the other factor, the money you save by not trading for Lee, can you use that money elsewhere and improve the team?
This is not just the value of Lee alone, it's the value of THE OUTGOING ASSET ( the 12th pick here at cost control) and the VALUE OF THE CAP SPACE IMPLIED.
A) Will the production of the 12th pick AND the opportunity cost of the difference in the cap space give you more than Lee would in Year 1 ( Age 31/32)
B) Will the production of the 12th pick AND the opportunity cost of the difference in the cap space give you more than Lee would in Year 2 ( Age 32/33)
C) Will the production of the 12th pick AND the opportunity cost of the difference in the cap space give you more than Lee would in Year 3 ( Age 33/34)
Here's a base problem with the few bad trades that really happen in the real NBA. The ones that violate basic marketplace values and trends and conventions, they start to make other bad potential trades look entirely possible. A bad trade can happen because the owner overrules everyone and is an idiot. A bad trade can happen because the GM in place fears for his job and thinks about the next 6 months, not the 4 years down the road. A bad trade can happen because it's a marketing/PR decision, and not solely a basketball/winning related decision.
The problem with being on the winning side of a bad trade is YOU CANNOT RELY ON THEM TO EVER BE THERE.
Some people say "No no, this trade makes so MUCH SENSE!" Against the NBA marketplace and current trends, actually it does not make sense. What would make sense if someone said, Stan Van Gundy is on the edge of being fired and his owner DEMANDS he make the playoffs next year or everyone is going to get clipped. The ticket sales are horrible and whatever personnel move would spike that ( like the Grizzlies signing Iverson at the end) maybe that's worth it. That kind of reasoning makes sense. Saying, no no, this is purely a good value for the other team, when nothing in NBA draft and trade history suggests that a reasonable and functionally run NBA franchise would ever make the deal.
The "mirror test" applies here.
Anyone who thinks this is a good value trade for the Pistons, ask yourself if the rosters and teams and situations were completely reversed. Every single aspect of it. You just slap a Knicks name on the Pistons franchise, would you want your beloved Knicks and your team runner in Van Gundy to trade the 12th pick PLUS the opportunity cost in the cap space difference that can be used elsewhere to get Courtney Lee on the roster?
A) Will the production of the 12th pick AND the opportunity cost of the difference in the cap space give you more than Lee would in Year 1 ( Age 31/32)
B) Will the production of the 12th pick AND the opportunity cost of the difference in the cap space give you more than Lee would in Year 2 ( Age 32/33)
C) Will the production of the 12th pick AND the opportunity cost of the difference in the cap space give you more than Lee would in Year 3 ( Age 33/34)
Would this add up for you as a Knicks fan?
And if YOU WOULD NOT, WHY WOULD OR SHOULD THE PISTONS?
Would the Pistons make this trade? Technically, anything is possible. Technically, the sun might not rise up tomorrow. Technically, Ariana Grande might knock on your door right now and give you the sloppiest wettest blowjob of your entire life. Technically, the can of Coke in your fridge might magically turn to Pepsi. Anything is possible.
BUT IS IT LIKELY?
Well run teams take advantage of poor market based decisions of other teams, but they DO NOT RELY ON THEM. THEY DO NO ASSUME IT IS THE DEFAULT SETTING AND BEHAVIOR OF OTHER TEAMS.
So, yes, if it makes some folks here feel better, as the can of Coke in your hand morphs into Pepsi, yes, this trade is entirely possible. It is just so unlikely that Ariana Grande is pretending she can sing somewhere and not on her knees in front of you right now.