smackeddog wrote:I have huge concerns about his attitude (he quit on his team in the playoffs and in a contract year!), but he does look good in his highlights vid- some of his passes are crazy:

this is a very real concern. I hope in our due diligence we do more than look at highlight reals. Phil needs to look in Rondo's soul and see if there's a fit, e.g., can he lead and more importantly teach others.

Rondo wasn't a great teammate in Dallas. Rick Carlisle was a championship winning coach, and that didn't stop Rajon from very openly disrespecting him, because Rondo wanted to call his own plays.

If Phil is serious about bringing in Rondo, he better be prepared to come down from the mountain, get Hornacek's back, and read Rajon the riot act if some of his well documented stubbornness resurfaces. Im not saying he will be a disruptive force, but Phil has to be ready for anything.

Channing Frye said that Hornacek wants it done his way but he gives players freedom to do their thing. Sounds like a good situation for Rondo, but I wouldn't put it past him to start a dust up over something else. As I said, I would want Phil to make his presence known, leave no doubt where he stands.

LivingLegend wrote:

EnySpree wrote:I think mostmost importantly..... Hornacek said himself that he wanted a pg like 28-30 years old to be a stop gap leader to help get the team to where it needs to be quicker. That's Rondo all the way.

Rondos rage comes when he feels he's the only one working hard. Or if he's working hard in vein. Here he would have Melo who believe it or not wants to win and KP that's thirsty to get better. Rondo would be a good influence on two hungry lions. He'd get them the ball evey single time.

Rondo made 10 null last year, he's due a pay raise, but not max and not 18 million. He should get Rolo money for 3 years.... then we can sit on this move and look to see how the market changes. 2017 we win it all mother****er

Me personally -- when Horny mentioned 28-year old PG I thought he was pointing more towards a Conley/Jennings type less so than Rondo. Horny's comments actually made me think Rondo might be off the table - which would surprise me.

Conley is priced off the market. Jennings just isn't that good. Rondo won a championship and is the best floor general out there.

Chandler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:Rondo has made $60mm in the NBA. Yes I would offer him that over 3 years. I think he signs.

you would have to completely ignore his ws48 to buy into this idea. I have a hard time with that and I think the market will as well.

I think the 3-year $60M is too high.

I would roughly think 2-year $36M ($18M per) or 3-year $48M ($16M per) might work and yes I understand that contract #s are moving higher.

I think Rondo comes with enough ?s (age, injury, attitude) that Knicks (if smart) can get him on a solid deal (maybe better than what I've indicated above).

maybe, maybe not. Its a sellers market. Everyone has cash and it only takes one team. Also the $18mm is what I am putting out there as well. He made $13mm two years ago so that is the # I am working off. Last year's deal was a one-off. So I am talking the same #s you guys are. You give him the normal NBA raises and $18, $20, $22 (ish) = $60mm.

Really hard to envision a better deal on the FA market than what Rondo can bring.

Hey... I would love to sign him cheap, but you have to be realistic. This is a jacked market with waaaay more spenders than FAs.

If the message is "we want you but only for cheap" than forget it. But if the message is "we will pay you the next 3 years like a star because we think you can take Melo/KP/Lopez to the next level" than I think he's Knick and yes.. I would make that deal.

My simply plan is load us up as much as possible for a 3 year run. Be in the playoffs every year. Then after 3 years you have Melo/Lopez/Rondo expiring setting us up for an epic FA crop to build next to KP. That's my thought.

Or we could max out Crabbe and hope he's the next Allan Houston with his 10ppg and sweet stroke

If it's a sellers market than we should avoid. IN a market cap system the name of the game is buying value. It's not an over-simplification to say the name of the game is to get better talent for essentially the same money. FA's by definition (almost -- some exception) you pay market price. I.e., not a value. Real value is in drafting (where rookies are capped) or landing a mega star (e.g., Lebron, KD etc are worth more than you're allowed to pay them). We shouldn't chase a player simply because he may make us better. We need to consider the fuller picture, opportunity cost etc. (e.g., we have REAL needs at SG -- modest upgrade is insufficient)

If you're right about FAs being a sellers market maybe we should consider other markets, where it will be buyer's market. For example, Boston has too many picks where the players slotted will be largely redundant with what they already have. They need to sell those, just like a grocer needs to sell his produce before it starts getting rotten. Other teams may be in similar situations. Minnesota for example has Rubio and Lavine on the books and they're slotted in a position which might land a top pg or sg (and might be looking to get rid of some guys).

fishmike wrote:

Chandler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:Rondo has made $60mm in the NBA. Yes I would offer him that over 3 years. I think he signs.

you would have to completely ignore his ws48 to buy into this idea. I have a hard time with that and I think the market will as well.

I think the 3-year $60M is too high.

I would roughly think 2-year $36M ($18M per) or 3-year $48M ($16M per) might work and yes I understand that contract #s are moving higher.

I think Rondo comes with enough ?s (age, injury, attitude) that Knicks (if smart) can get him on a solid deal (maybe better than what I've indicated above).

maybe, maybe not. Its a sellers market. Everyone has cash and it only takes one team. Also the $18mm is what I am putting out there as well. He made $13mm two years ago so that is the # I am working off. Last year's deal was a one-off. So I am talking the same #s you guys are. You give him the normal NBA raises and $18, $20, $22 (ish) = $60mm.

Really hard to envision a better deal on the FA market than what Rondo can bring.

Hey... I would love to sign him cheap, but you have to be realistic. This is a jacked market with waaaay more spenders than FAs.

If the message is "we want you but only for cheap" than forget it. But if the message is "we will pay you the next 3 years like a star because we think you can take Melo/KP/Lopez to the next level" than I think he's Knick and yes.. I would make that deal.

My simply plan is load us up as much as possible for a 3 year run. Be in the playoffs every year. Then after 3 years you have Melo/Lopez/Rondo expiring setting us up for an epic FA crop to build next to KP. That's my thought.

Or we could max out Crabbe and hope he's the next Allan Houston with his 10ppg and sweet stroke

If it's a sellers market than we should avoid. IN a market cap system the name of the game is buying value. It's not an over-simplification to say the name of the game is to get better talent for essentially the same money. FA's by definition (almost -- some exception) you pay market price. I.e., not a value. Real value is in drafting (where rookies are capped) or landing a mega star (e.g., Lebron, KD etc are worth more than you're allowed to pay them). We shouldn't chase a player simply because he may make us better. We need to consider the fuller picture, opportunity cost etc. (e.g., we have REAL needs at SG -- modest upgrade is insufficient)

If you're right about FAs being a sellers market maybe we should consider other markets, where it will be buyer's market. For example, Boston has too many picks where the players slotted will be largely redundant with what they already have. They need to sell those, just like a grocer needs to sell his produce before it starts getting rotten. Other teams may be in similar situations. Minnesota for example has Rubio and Lavine on the books and they're slotted in a position which might land a top pg or sg (and might be looking to get rid of some guys).

we need to do it all... however I see the value in giving Rondo big money for 3 years. This would NOT impact me buying picks. Actually the opposite. I want to build up the roster as much as possible. The IDEAL situation is to have team that's been in the playoffs for 3 years, is viewed as a stable franchise and has a young superstar in KP and a roster of young up and coming guys on rookie deals when Melo/Lopez/Rondo expire. That's my end vision with this signing.

Absolutely - this is a great post.

fishmike wrote:

Chandler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:Rondo has made $60mm in the NBA. Yes I would offer him that over 3 years. I think he signs.

you would have to completely ignore his ws48 to buy into this idea. I have a hard time with that and I think the market will as well.

I think the 3-year $60M is too high.

I would roughly think 2-year $36M ($18M per) or 3-year $48M ($16M per) might work and yes I understand that contract #s are moving higher.

I think Rondo comes with enough ?s (age, injury, attitude) that Knicks (if smart) can get him on a solid deal (maybe better than what I've indicated above).

maybe, maybe not. Its a sellers market. Everyone has cash and it only takes one team. Also the $18mm is what I am putting out there as well. He made $13mm two years ago so that is the # I am working off. Last year's deal was a one-off. So I am talking the same #s you guys are. You give him the normal NBA raises and $18, $20, $22 (ish) = $60mm.

Really hard to envision a better deal on the FA market than what Rondo can bring.

Hey... I would love to sign him cheap, but you have to be realistic. This is a jacked market with waaaay more spenders than FAs.

If the message is "we want you but only for cheap" than forget it. But if the message is "we will pay you the next 3 years like a star because we think you can take Melo/KP/Lopez to the next level" than I think he's Knick and yes.. I would make that deal.

My simply plan is load us up as much as possible for a 3 year run. Be in the playoffs every year. Then after 3 years you have Melo/Lopez/Rondo expiring setting us up for an epic FA crop to build next to KP. That's my thought.

Or we could max out Crabbe and hope he's the next Allan Houston with his 10ppg and sweet stroke

If it's a sellers market than we should avoid. IN a market cap system the name of the game is buying value. It's not an over-simplification to say the name of the game is to get better talent for essentially the same money. FA's by definition (almost -- some exception) you pay market price. I.e., not a value. Real value is in drafting (where rookies are capped) or landing a mega star (e.g., Lebron, KD etc are worth more than you're allowed to pay them). We shouldn't chase a player simply because he may make us better. We need to consider the fuller picture, opportunity cost etc. (e.g., we have REAL needs at SG -- modest upgrade is insufficient)

If you're right about FAs being a sellers market maybe we should consider other markets, where it will be buyer's market. For example, Boston has too many picks where the players slotted will be largely redundant with what they already have. They need to sell those, just like a grocer needs to sell his produce before it starts getting rotten. Other teams may be in similar situations. Minnesota for example has Rubio and Lavine on the books and they're slotted in a position which might land a top pg or sg (and might be looking to get rid of some guys).

we need to do it all... however I see the value in giving Rondo big money for 3 years. This would NOT impact me buying picks. Actually the opposite. I want to build up the roster as much as possible. The IDEAL situation is to have team that's been in the playoffs for 3 years, is viewed as a stable franchise and has a young superstar in KP and a roster of young up and coming guys on rookie deals when Melo/Lopez/Rondo expire. That's my end vision with this signing.

how about his ws48? I did not see you address that. You may not be an advanced stat guy but hornacek def is one.

martin wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Chandler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:Rondo has made $60mm in the NBA. Yes I would offer him that over 3 years. I think he signs.

you would have to completely ignore his ws48 to buy into this idea. I have a hard time with that and I think the market will as well.

I think the 3-year $60M is too high.

I would roughly think 2-year $36M ($18M per) or 3-year $48M ($16M per) might work and yes I understand that contract #s are moving higher.

I think Rondo comes with enough ?s (age, injury, attitude) that Knicks (if smart) can get him on a solid deal (maybe better than what I've indicated above).

maybe, maybe not. Its a sellers market. Everyone has cash and it only takes one team. Also the $18mm is what I am putting out there as well. He made $13mm two years ago so that is the # I am working off. Last year's deal was a one-off. So I am talking the same #s you guys are. You give him the normal NBA raises and $18, $20, $22 (ish) = $60mm.

Really hard to envision a better deal on the FA market than what Rondo can bring.

Hey... I would love to sign him cheap, but you have to be realistic. This is a jacked market with waaaay more spenders than FAs.

If the message is "we want you but only for cheap" than forget it. But if the message is "we will pay you the next 3 years like a star because we think you can take Melo/KP/Lopez to the next level" than I think he's Knick and yes.. I would make that deal.

My simply plan is load us up as much as possible for a 3 year run. Be in the playoffs every year. Then after 3 years you have Melo/Lopez/Rondo expiring setting us up for an epic FA crop to build next to KP. That's my thought.

Or we could max out Crabbe and hope he's the next Allan Houston with his 10ppg and sweet stroke

If it's a sellers market than we should avoid. IN a market cap system the name of the game is buying value. It's not an over-simplification to say the name of the game is to get better talent for essentially the same money. FA's by definition (almost -- some exception) you pay market price. I.e., not a value. Real value is in drafting (where rookies are capped) or landing a mega star (e.g., Lebron, KD etc are worth more than you're allowed to pay them). We shouldn't chase a player simply because he may make us better. We need to consider the fuller picture, opportunity cost etc. (e.g., we have REAL needs at SG -- modest upgrade is insufficient)

If you're right about FAs being a sellers market maybe we should consider other markets, where it will be buyer's market. For example, Boston has too many picks where the players slotted will be largely redundant with what they already have. They need to sell those, just like a grocer needs to sell his produce before it starts getting rotten. Other teams may be in similar situations. Minnesota for example has Rubio and Lavine on the books and they're slotted in a position which might land a top pg or sg (and might be looking to get rid of some guys).

we need to do it all... however I see the value in giving Rondo big money for 3 years. This would NOT impact me buying picks. Actually the opposite. I want to build up the roster as much as possible. The IDEAL situation is to have team that's been in the playoffs for 3 years, is viewed as a stable franchise and has a young superstar in KP and a roster of young up and coming guys on rookie deals when Melo/Lopez/Rondo expire. That's my end vision with this signing.

how about his ws48? I did not see you address that. You may not be an advanced stat guy but hornacek def is one.

What's your assessment? How do Rondo's stats play into his ws48?

you are asking what stats are causing a bad ws48?

his ws48 has been below average for 4 straight years. You want to pay him max because he just passes the eye test?

mreinman wrote:

martin wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Chandler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:Rondo has made $60mm in the NBA. Yes I would offer him that over 3 years. I think he signs.

you would have to completely ignore his ws48 to buy into this idea. I have a hard time with that and I think the market will as well.

I think the 3-year $60M is too high.

I would roughly think 2-year $36M ($18M per) or 3-year $48M ($16M per) might work and yes I understand that contract #s are moving higher.

I think Rondo comes with enough ?s (age, injury, attitude) that Knicks (if smart) can get him on a solid deal (maybe better than what I've indicated above).

maybe, maybe not. Its a sellers market. Everyone has cash and it only takes one team. Also the $18mm is what I am putting out there as well. He made $13mm two years ago so that is the # I am working off. Last year's deal was a one-off. So I am talking the same #s you guys are. You give him the normal NBA raises and $18, $20, $22 (ish) = $60mm.

Really hard to envision a better deal on the FA market than what Rondo can bring.

Hey... I would love to sign him cheap, but you have to be realistic. This is a jacked market with waaaay more spenders than FAs.

If the message is "we want you but only for cheap" than forget it. But if the message is "we will pay you the next 3 years like a star because we think you can take Melo/KP/Lopez to the next level" than I think he's Knick and yes.. I would make that deal.

My simply plan is load us up as much as possible for a 3 year run. Be in the playoffs every year. Then after 3 years you have Melo/Lopez/Rondo expiring setting us up for an epic FA crop to build next to KP. That's my thought.

Or we could max out Crabbe and hope he's the next Allan Houston with his 10ppg and sweet stroke

If it's a sellers market than we should avoid. IN a market cap system the name of the game is buying value. It's not an over-simplification to say the name of the game is to get better talent for essentially the same money. FA's by definition (almost -- some exception) you pay market price. I.e., not a value. Real value is in drafting (where rookies are capped) or landing a mega star (e.g., Lebron, KD etc are worth more than you're allowed to pay them). We shouldn't chase a player simply because he may make us better. We need to consider the fuller picture, opportunity cost etc. (e.g., we have REAL needs at SG -- modest upgrade is insufficient)

If you're right about FAs being a sellers market maybe we should consider other markets, where it will be buyer's market. For example, Boston has too many picks where the players slotted will be largely redundant with what they already have. They need to sell those, just like a grocer needs to sell his produce before it starts getting rotten. Other teams may be in similar situations. Minnesota for example has Rubio and Lavine on the books and they're slotted in a position which might land a top pg or sg (and might be looking to get rid of some guys).

we need to do it all... however I see the value in giving Rondo big money for 3 years. This would NOT impact me buying picks. Actually the opposite. I want to build up the roster as much as possible. The IDEAL situation is to have team that's been in the playoffs for 3 years, is viewed as a stable franchise and has a young superstar in KP and a roster of young up and coming guys on rookie deals when Melo/Lopez/Rondo expire. That's my end vision with this signing.

how about his ws48? I did not see you address that. You may not be an advanced stat guy but hornacek def is one.

What's your assessment? How do Rondo's stats play into his ws48?

you are asking what stats are causing a bad ws48?

his ws48 has been below average for 4 straight years. You want to pay him max because he just passes the eye test?

Well, for one thing, he's only been below average for three years and those years were - injury, Dallas under a coach he didn't get along with, and Sacramento for a terrible team. The fourth year back he was above average and in the all-star game.

I think his win shares are low because his free throw percentage and free throw rate is low. Win Shares weigh free throw attempts very heavily, Rondo shoots a bad percentage, but he also rarely gets to the line. To me, that makes his free throw shooting not that big a deal. He shot .45% from 2 and .36% from 3, that's pretty decent. His TS% gets thrown by the low number of free throw attempts. Watching him play, I'd argue that he doesn't get fouled a lot because he's not doing the Harden thing of trying to draw contact, but rather he's snaking around defenders and making layups or passing to teammates for wide open shots.

He had the Kings playing at the fastest pace in the league too, something that JH has said he wants.

With Rondo it's about fit, to me. I think he fits well next to Melo and KP and even Rolo, because of potential for Rondo to set them up for open jumpers in the pick and pop and get them easy buckets in their spots. You've said you don't think WS% can be influenced by team fit - but Dragic looks like an all-star if you look at his Phoenix years under Hornacek and a below average player if you look at his Heat years. Did he just become a vastly different player?

Melo's best seasons have come with elite PGs - Billups and Kidd - who knew how to get him the ball in his spots. I think signing Rondo to a contract the same length of Melo and Rolo's deals makes a ton of sense.

Always think Rondo has some complicated psychological unsolvable mental issue.