newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

There's a difference between fully relying on the numbers, taking a middle ground, and fully ignoring the numbers. I said I could accept the view of someone who called it a wash because TH JR had much better #s but Jerian was in a worse situation. Without any way of knowing which of those factors was more important, it would be acceptable to say they cancel each other out. (I don't find it compelling that the situation a player is in has the kind of gigantic impact on his stats that would be needed to come up with a much more favorable projection for Grant, but I could accept that optimistic middle ground viewpoint.)

THJ does nothing but shoot the ball so i can't believe his numbers were much better all around even with THJ getting more playing time than Jerian. Jerian never got consistent minutes to get better with and was trying to learn a tough offense for PG's in his rookie season. I really don't understand how you can compare a rookie PG to THJ.

I was taking into account year of play. I included that in the overall evaluation (see bold in first comment above).
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the projections. I might guess it's about a 30% Atlanta comes out with the better player, 15% we do, and 50 or 55% that these end up being comparable (and probably unimportant) players and the trade is a wash. The thing is, the discussion here was about the idea of *adding* draft picks, and the claim was we got an extra pick out of this trade (rather than just swapping players). So Grant has to be a significantly better player than TH JR for that to be the case.

Grant projects to be a better defender, rebounder, creator then Hardaway Jr. The only thing that THJ projects to be better then Grant in is shooting. So for him to turn into the better player his shooting is going to have to be way better then Grants best ability. Which would be creating off the PNR. As well as not fall to far off from the other areas of the game compared to Grant. Hardaway also probably fits ATL better then he did the triangle. I don't believe he would ever develop into the player he would have needed to be here so even if he did turn into the better player. Wouldn't mean that he would have developed into that for us.

Grant's last yr in college he held a 592 TS%, 33.6 ast - 24.2 usage, 7.7 win shares, 218 win shares 48, 8.9 Box plus minus. In NCAA he was #2 in points produced, #3 in win shares, #3 in assist.

None of Hardaway Jrs advanced stats compare to that coming out of college. Grant had comparable advanced stats his freshman yr in college to Hardaway's Jr yr.

I think there is more overall data that project Grant to be a better player then Hardaway. By Grant's 3rd yr in the league I expect him to have put up a better season then Hardaway's 3rd yr in the league.

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

There's a difference between fully relying on the numbers, taking a middle ground, and fully ignoring the numbers. I said I could accept the view of someone who called it a wash because TH JR had much better #s but Jerian was in a worse situation. Without any way of knowing which of those factors was more important, it would be acceptable to say they cancel each other out. (I don't find it compelling that the situation a player is in has the kind of gigantic impact on his stats that would be needed to come up with a much more favorable projection for Grant, but I could accept that optimistic middle ground viewpoint.)

THJ does nothing but shoot the ball so i can't believe his numbers were much better all around even with THJ getting more playing time than Jerian. Jerian never got consistent minutes to get better with and was trying to learn a tough offense for PG's in his rookie season. I really don't understand how you can compare a rookie PG to THJ.

I was taking into account year of play. I included that in the overall evaluation (see bold in first comment above).
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the projections. I might guess it's about a 30% Atlanta comes out with the better player, 15% we do, and 50 or 55% that these end up being comparable (and probably unimportant) players and the trade is a wash. The thing is, the discussion here was about the idea of *adding* draft picks, and the claim was we got an extra pick out of this trade (rather than just swapping players). So Grant has to be a significantly better player than TH JR for that to be the case.

Well your percentages you've come up with are clearly only your opinion and you have zero idea on how it will turn out between the two. You obviously didn't care for the trade and have some love towards THJ but for me i'd still chose Jerian after seeing what both have done last year.

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

There's a difference between fully relying on the numbers, taking a middle ground, and fully ignoring the numbers. I said I could accept the view of someone who called it a wash because TH JR had much better #s but Jerian was in a worse situation. Without any way of knowing which of those factors was more important, it would be acceptable to say they cancel each other out. (I don't find it compelling that the situation a player is in has the kind of gigantic impact on his stats that would be needed to come up with a much more favorable projection for Grant, but I could accept that optimistic middle ground viewpoint.)

THJ does nothing but shoot the ball so i can't believe his numbers were much better all around even with THJ getting more playing time than Jerian. Jerian never got consistent minutes to get better with and was trying to learn a tough offense for PG's in his rookie season. I really don't understand how you can compare a rookie PG to THJ.

I was taking into account year of play. I included that in the overall evaluation (see bold in first comment above).
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the projections. I might guess it's about a 30% Atlanta comes out with the better player, 15% we do, and 50 or 55% that these end up being comparable (and probably unimportant) players and the trade is a wash. The thing is, the discussion here was about the idea of *adding* draft picks, and the claim was we got an extra pick out of this trade (rather than just swapping players). So Grant has to be a significantly better player than TH JR for that to be the case.

Grant projects to be a better defender, rebounder, creator then Hardaway Jr. The only thing that THJ projects to be better then Grant in is shooting. So for him to turn into the better player his shooting is going to have to be way better then Grants best ability. Which would be creating off the PNR. As well as not fall to far off from the other areas of the game compared to Grant. Hardaway also probably fits ATL better then he did the triangle. I don't believe he would ever develop into the player he would have needed to be here so even if he did turn into the better player. Wouldn't mean that he would have developed into that for us.

Grant's last yr in college he held a 592 TS%, 33.6 ast - 24.2 usage, 7.7 win shares, 218 win shares 48, 8.9 Box plus minus. In NCAA he was #2 in points produced, #3 in win shares, #3 in assist.

None of Hardaway Jrs advanced stats compare to that coming out of college. Grant had comparable advanced stats his freshman yr in college to Hardaway's Jr yr.

I think there is more overall data that project Grant to be a better player then Hardaway. By Grant's 3rd yr in the league I expect him to have put up a better season then Hardaway's 3rd yr in the league.

How much weight are you giving to this year's advanced stats for Grant? Are you only using his college stats?

Advanced, Grant has a better free throw rate, rebounding%, stls%, ast%, lower usage, same defensive win shares, better defensive box plus minus.

Hardaway playing with guys like Hortford, Milsap, Teague, Bazemore, Shroader(spell?). Expected to be an off the ball shooter, was absolutely given every reason to be very successful last season. In reality he should have stepped up more then he did.

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

There's a difference between fully relying on the numbers, taking a middle ground, and fully ignoring the numbers. I said I could accept the view of someone who called it a wash because TH JR had much better #s but Jerian was in a worse situation. Without any way of knowing which of those factors was more important, it would be acceptable to say they cancel each other out. (I don't find it compelling that the situation a player is in has the kind of gigantic impact on his stats that would be needed to come up with a much more favorable projection for Grant, but I could accept that optimistic middle ground viewpoint.)

THJ does nothing but shoot the ball so i can't believe his numbers were much better all around even with THJ getting more playing time than Jerian. Jerian never got consistent minutes to get better with and was trying to learn a tough offense for PG's in his rookie season. I really don't understand how you can compare a rookie PG to THJ.

I was taking into account year of play. I included that in the overall evaluation (see bold in first comment above).
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the projections. I might guess it's about a 30% Atlanta comes out with the better player, 15% we do, and 50 or 55% that these end up being comparable (and probably unimportant) players and the trade is a wash. The thing is, the discussion here was about the idea of *adding* draft picks, and the claim was we got an extra pick out of this trade (rather than just swapping players). So Grant has to be a significantly better player than TH JR for that to be the case.

Grant projects to be a better defender, rebounder, creator then Hardaway Jr. The only thing that THJ projects to be better then Grant in is shooting. So for him to turn into the better player his shooting is going to have to be way better then Grants best ability. Which would be creating off the PNR. As well as not fall to far off from the other areas of the game compared to Grant. Hardaway also probably fits ATL better then he did the triangle. I don't believe he would ever develop into the player he would have needed to be here so even if he did turn into the better player. Wouldn't mean that he would have developed into that for us.

Grant's last yr in college he held a 592 TS%, 33.6 ast - 24.2 usage, 7.7 win shares, 218 win shares 48, 8.9 Box plus minus. In NCAA he was #2 in points produced, #3 in win shares, #3 in assist.

None of Hardaway Jrs advanced stats compare to that coming out of college. Grant had comparable advanced stats his freshman yr in college to Hardaway's Jr yr.

I think there is more overall data that project Grant to be a better player then Hardaway. By Grant's 3rd yr in the league I expect him to have put up a better season then Hardaway's 3rd yr in the league.

How much weight are you giving to this year's advanced stats for Grant? Are you only using his college stats?

Advanced, Grant has a better free throw rate, rebounding%, stls%, ast%, lower usage, same defensive win shares, better defensive box plus minus.

Hardaway playing with guys like Hortford, Milsap, Teague, Bazemore, Shroader(spell?). Expected to be an off the ball shooter, was absolutely given every reason to be very successful last season. In reality he should have stepped up more then he did.

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

This is am incredible amount of rationalizing. You may not want to use the numbers but to look at real performance data and use spin to rationalize it away will not lead to good decisions in the future. Taking a POV that Jerian was in s a bad situation and can improve and THJ wasn't and can't is not based on anything concrete.

newyorker4ever wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

Hardaway had a good month I think (March?). It was a reasonable month. He also spent a bit of time in the d league. I think the Hawks would love a redo on that move.

THJ is still a good piece to have coming off the bench and will be a streaky shooter but when he's hitting his 3 ball he can really get it going which we've all seen but i really think Grant will take a big step forward playing under Hornacek and can't wait to get the next year going.

Hard to argue a subject that needs time to pan out. However, think for most on here..Hope equals Grant. Think that's why most try to say it was a good trade. They want it to be true. By last years performance compared to THJ first two years, I just dont see it. I remember THJ all star rookie game in which he put on a show. If Grant did that the boards would be proclaiming him the next Jordan. And did we forget THJ was our second biggest scoring threat in that God awful year. Comparing his playing time on the Hawks to Grants on this year Knicks is odd. As we had a back court of Calderon, Vuj, Gallo. Something you would think Grant would have gotten a nod over by the coaches. The Hawks had a loaded back court. So not fair to say THJ did not get playing time because he sucked. IMO, Hardaway has NBA ready confidence, NBA skill set and all around game needed to play at this high level. The biggest problem for me is Grants overall natural instinct and speed he plays at. He does not seem to have a good feel for things around him, at times. Always looks rushed and a bit nervous. Not a good quality, specially for a point guard. May be a rookie thing but don't remember seeing that from THJ. THJ's issues were defensive lapses and shot selection. Something a good coach would be able to change. But like I said, it's something we won't have an answer for until maybe 2019. But strange how most excuse Grants performance to the triangle but we're able to dump THJ after his first year in it.

earthmansurfer wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

There's a difference between fully relying on the numbers, taking a middle ground, and fully ignoring the numbers. I said I could accept the view of someone who called it a wash because TH JR had much better #s but Jerian was in a worse situation. Without any way of knowing which of those factors was more important, it would be acceptable to say they cancel each other out. (I don't find it compelling that the situation a player is in has the kind of gigantic impact on his stats that would be needed to come up with a much more favorable projection for Grant, but I could accept that optimistic middle ground viewpoint.)

THJ does nothing but shoot the ball so i can't believe his numbers were much better all around even with THJ getting more playing time than Jerian. Jerian never got consistent minutes to get better with and was trying to learn a tough offense for PG's in his rookie season. I really don't understand how you can compare a rookie PG to THJ.

I was taking into account year of play. I included that in the overall evaluation (see bold in first comment above).
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the projections. I might guess it's about a 30% Atlanta comes out with the better player, 15% we do, and 50 or 55% that these end up being comparable (and probably unimportant) players and the trade is a wash. The thing is, the discussion here was about the idea of *adding* draft picks, and the claim was we got an extra pick out of this trade (rather than just swapping players). So Grant has to be a significantly better player than TH JR for that to be the case.

Well your percentages you've come up with are clearly only your opinion and you have zero idea on how it will turn out between the two. You obviously didn't care for the trade and have some love towards THJ but for me i'd still chose Jerian after seeing what both have done last year.

Actually, everything you said there was wrong. I strongly supported the trade when it happened. I didn't think Grant would struggle or TH would improve this much. I didn't foresee how lopsided the outcome at this point would have been. Obviously there was (and still is) a lot of uncertainty in the projections though, as we're dealing with small samples of playing time from both players this year.
TH Jr's Win Shares definitely do (as far as I can tell) project better than Grant's. TH JR based on his WS played at the level of an average (or slightly above average) NBA player this year, and that's in year 3. So it projects pretty well. Grant's WS were well below what the average rookie has. So either he will have to improve upon his rookie year at a faster rate than the average player or will continue to be below average. I haven't read every article ever written about the win shares, but that is my factual understanding of the stat. People here supporting the trade (which is basically everyone here) are predicting that Grant will improve upon his rookie performance at a much faster rate than the average NBA player does.

Yeah, I too overwhelmingly supported the trade. I think it is too early to make much of it, especially with only 1 PT year under Grants belt.
JR just isn't a very smart player and his defense sucks. Grant has a high BB IQ and his defense is ok for a rookie. They play two different
positions though and the pg position in yr 1 we all know is a really hard position to play. Comparing someone in JR. who has pretty good players around
him and is only asked to shoot, with someone who is, in a sense (even with some triangle), asked to run a team (and in year 1) is not generally going to be pretty.

The way Grant finished the season, really has me excited for the future. They really really did their HW on him.
I do hope JR does well where he is, but he isn't going to become smart or a good defender ever imo. If he becomes a consistent shooter in their system, good trade for them.
Grant imo, has the potential to be a better than good pg.

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

There's a difference between fully relying on the numbers, taking a middle ground, and fully ignoring the numbers. I said I could accept the view of someone who called it a wash because TH JR had much better #s but Jerian was in a worse situation. Without any way of knowing which of those factors was more important, it would be acceptable to say they cancel each other out. (I don't find it compelling that the situation a player is in has the kind of gigantic impact on his stats that would be needed to come up with a much more favorable projection for Grant, but I could accept that optimistic middle ground viewpoint.)

THJ does nothing but shoot the ball so i can't believe his numbers were much better all around even with THJ getting more playing time than Jerian. Jerian never got consistent minutes to get better with and was trying to learn a tough offense for PG's in his rookie season. I really don't understand how you can compare a rookie PG to THJ.

I was taking into account year of play. I included that in the overall evaluation (see bold in first comment above).
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the projections. I might guess it's about a 30% Atlanta comes out with the better player, 15% we do, and 50 or 55% that these end up being comparable (and probably unimportant) players and the trade is a wash. The thing is, the discussion here was about the idea of *adding* draft picks, and the claim was we got an extra pick out of this trade (rather than just swapping players). So Grant has to be a significantly better player than TH JR for that to be the case.

Grant projects to be a better defender, rebounder, creator then Hardaway Jr. The only thing that THJ projects to be better then Grant in is shooting. So for him to turn into the better player his shooting is going to have to be way better then Grants best ability. Which would be creating off the PNR. As well as not fall to far off from the other areas of the game compared to Grant. Hardaway also probably fits ATL better then he did the triangle. I don't believe he would ever develop into the player he would have needed to be here so even if he did turn into the better player. Wouldn't mean that he would have developed into that for us.

Grant's last yr in college he held a 592 TS%, 33.6 ast - 24.2 usage, 7.7 win shares, 218 win shares 48, 8.9 Box plus minus. In NCAA he was #2 in points produced, #3 in win shares, #3 in assist.

None of Hardaway Jrs advanced stats compare to that coming out of college. Grant had comparable advanced stats his freshman yr in college to Hardaway's Jr yr.

I think there is more overall data that project Grant to be a better player then Hardaway. By Grant's 3rd yr in the league I expect him to have put up a better season then Hardaway's 3rd yr in the league.

How much weight are you giving to this year's advanced stats for Grant? Are you only using his college stats?

Advanced, Grant has a better free throw rate, rebounding%, stls%, ast%, lower usage, same defensive win shares, better defensive box plus minus.

Hardaway playing with guys like Hortford, Milsap, Teague, Bazemore, Shroader(spell?). Expected to be an off the ball shooter, was absolutely given every reason to be very successful last season. In reality he should have stepped up more then he did.

So you don't go by the global advanced stats (WS, Offensive and defensive ratings, overall box plus minus, PER, etc.)?

Of course I add all that together, I was specifically pointing out the areas that Grant as a rookie was already better then THJ at who went into his 3rd yr last yr.

meloshouldgo wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

This is am incredible amount of rationalizing. You may not want to use the numbers but to look at real performance data and use spin to rationalize it away will not lead to good decisions in the future. Taking a POV that Jerian was in s a bad situation and can improve and THJ wasn't and can't is not based on anything concrete.

In another thread you used 'body language' as a basis for your position.

Yes dear. I used body language as gauge of a person's emotions. I am looking at data to judge actual performance in the court. If the NBA stats tracking stats on what emotions players are feeling, I will happily use those as well.

The issue was money. Lin got a monster offer and took it. Just curious, what are you basing your claim that Melo chased Lin out?
I am basing it on what I saw in Melo's body language when the crowds were going nuts for Lin, then on how he was pouting because Lin had the guts and brains to look him off instead of blindly handling him the ball. And his well documented refusal to play teamball for Mike D'Antoni right after Linsanity

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

CrushAlot wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Speculation is that Schroeder and Hardaway are not going to be offered extensions.
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/5/16/11257640/atlanta-hawks-salary-cap-dennis-schroder-extension

Very surprising that they wouldn't offer Schroeder an extension.