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Who Would Horn Prefer from Win Share 48 List?
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mreinman
Posts: 37827
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5/21/2016  11:27 PM
newyorknewyork wrote:
mreinman wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
nixluva wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:It depends on the price for these players. However, it's striking how bad the options for a top player are besides Durant.

Earlier Mreinman made that thread about Win shares 48. How the average salary 4mil. Should compare to the average Win Shares 48 which is 100.

Is the average win shares per 48 average due to adding and dividing all Win Share 48 averages? Or is the average win share 48(100.) due to the frequency of players able to play at this level?

For example Steph Curry win share 48 is 318. Which means if 9 other players had an average of 75.7 Win shares 48. The average for all 10 would still be 100. Yet only 1 of them would actually hold a wins shares at 100. or higher. Out of all the players in the league how many actually produce at a 100. Win Shares 48 or higher?


I just did a quick survey of the WS/48 according to Basketball Reference. Only 167 players this year were above .100 out of 476 players. I deducted guys who played less than 30 games, which amounted to 19 players with a WS/48 above .100. Only 14 players with at least 30 games played had a WS/48 above .200!!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

Thanks for that! I tried to ask that question earlier but never really got around to it. So players that perform at 100. aren't really the average but are at a premium.

What about players that played at least 20 mins a game? Or 30 mins a game?

you can just take the data and sort it in excel and you can get all the data you want.

.100 is league average but obviously not for this past season.

Is it league average for the amount of players able to achieve this rate? Or is it league average due to the level which players are expected to perform at(Which Bonn eluded too)? Or is it league average due to the total amount of win shares 48 when adding all players, divided by the players?

It was / is the league average over a number of seasons is what I would think.

How WS works is documented on BRef.

This year there were many players in the mid .090's so of course things can fluctuate.

Just did a quick sort of the number of players who played > 1000 minutes. There were 275 players of which 131 had a WS48 .100+ ...

Also, if you make the min .098 then you have 139 players that meet that criteria (more than half).

.100 is not a premium, it's average (with a small margin of error +/- from season to season)

so here is what phil is thinking ....
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nixluva
Posts: 56258
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5/21/2016  11:38 PM
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

mreinman
Posts: 37827
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Joined: 7/14/2010
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5/21/2016  11:56 PM
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
nixluva
Posts: 56258
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5/22/2016  12:13 AM
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.
mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/22/2016  12:21 AM
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
nixluva
Posts: 56258
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
5/22/2016  12:37 AM
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.


I disagree. I don't think his contract is indicative of his actual talent. He is young and clearly needs more development, which the Knicks are actively doing. If he's healthy I expect he'll greatly outperform his contract. I think what Horn is likely to do with this team will benefit Wroten, Jerian and Gallo. If Horn has them doing what he's done in PHX, they should all improve playing a bit more uptempo and with PnR.
mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/22/2016  12:43 AM
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.


I disagree. I don't think his contract is indicative of his actual talent. He is young and clearly needs more development, which the Knicks are actively doing. If he's healthy I expect he'll greatly outperform his contract. I think what Horn is likely to do with this team will benefit Wroten, Jerian and Gallo. If Horn has them doing what he's done in PHX, they should all improve playing a bit more uptempo and with PnR.

You have the right to disagree with the market and have believe that he will outperform his contract. That is like saying that you believe that a team will win by 28 points when they are favored by 3. They can win by 40 but the market is not predicted that and not even close.

We have had these discussions before and we seem to always disagree. I play market even money ...

so here is what phil is thinking ....
nixluva
Posts: 56258
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Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
5/22/2016  12:51 AM
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.


I disagree. I don't think his contract is indicative of his actual talent. He is young and clearly needs more development, which the Knicks are actively doing. If he's healthy I expect he'll greatly outperform his contract. I think what Horn is likely to do with this team will benefit Wroten, Jerian and Gallo. If Horn has them doing what he's done in PHX, they should all improve playing a bit more uptempo and with PnR.

You have the right to disagree with the market and have believe that he will outperform his contract. That is like saying that you believe that a team will win by 28 points when they are favored by 3. They can win by 40 but the market is not predicted that and not even close.

We have had these discussions before and we seem to always disagree. I play market even money ...


None of that has any impact on a players work ethic, preparation and determination to improve. It can't predict if a guy like Bruce Bowen would work his butt off and develop a jumper where he had none.

Wroten is not devoid of talent. He's a 23 yr old 1st rd draft pick. There's the potential for him to improve. If Phil didn't think there was anything there he wouldn't have signed at ANY PRICE! There were lots of healthy D League guards he could've taken a chance on.

dk7th
Posts: 30006
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5/22/2016  12:53 AM
how big a factor is usage on win shares
knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
mreinman
Posts: 37827
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5/22/2016  6:39 AM
dk7th wrote:how big a factor is usage on win shares

none.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

so here is what phil is thinking ....
mreinman
Posts: 37827
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Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/22/2016  6:44 AM
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.


I disagree. I don't think his contract is indicative of his actual talent. He is young and clearly needs more development, which the Knicks are actively doing. If he's healthy I expect he'll greatly outperform his contract. I think what Horn is likely to do with this team will benefit Wroten, Jerian and Gallo. If Horn has them doing what he's done in PHX, they should all improve playing a bit more uptempo and with PnR.

You have the right to disagree with the market and have believe that he will outperform his contract. That is like saying that you believe that a team will win by 28 points when they are favored by 3. They can win by 40 but the market is not predicted that and not even close.

We have had these discussions before and we seem to always disagree. I play market even money ...


None of that has any impact on a players work ethic, preparation and determination to improve. It can't predict if a guy like Bruce Bowen would work his butt off and develop a jumper where he had none.

Wroten is not devoid of talent. He's a 23 yr old 1st rd draft pick. There's the potential for him to improve. If Phil didn't think there was anything there he wouldn't have signed at ANY PRICE! There were lots of healthy D League guards he could've taken a chance on.

potential and expectation ... how does that translate?

Nobody can predict a Bruce Bowen, nobody expected bruce to be bruce.

Nobody is arguing if he has talent.

"Officially, according to Yahoo, the New York Knicks and Tony Wroten are finalizing a two-year deal. Which comes on the heel of the Knicks not renewing their original 10-day contract that they signed Jimmer Fredette to last week.

Nevertheless, it appears that the Knicks are ready to invest in Wroten. So what can the Knicks ideally expect from the young point guard?

It’s pretty simple. First of all, not much."

It looks like I will never be able to get my point across here so I will move on.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
newyorknewyork
Posts: 30259
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 1/16/2004
Member: #541
5/22/2016  7:02 AM
mreinman wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
mreinman wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
nixluva wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:It depends on the price for these players. However, it's striking how bad the options for a top player are besides Durant.

Earlier Mreinman made that thread about Win shares 48. How the average salary 4mil. Should compare to the average Win Shares 48 which is 100.

Is the average win shares per 48 average due to adding and dividing all Win Share 48 averages? Or is the average win share 48(100.) due to the frequency of players able to play at this level?

For example Steph Curry win share 48 is 318. Which means if 9 other players had an average of 75.7 Win shares 48. The average for all 10 would still be 100. Yet only 1 of them would actually hold a wins shares at 100. or higher. Out of all the players in the league how many actually produce at a 100. Win Shares 48 or higher?


I just did a quick survey of the WS/48 according to Basketball Reference. Only 167 players this year were above .100 out of 476 players. I deducted guys who played less than 30 games, which amounted to 19 players with a WS/48 above .100. Only 14 players with at least 30 games played had a WS/48 above .200!!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

Thanks for that! I tried to ask that question earlier but never really got around to it. So players that perform at 100. aren't really the average but are at a premium.

What about players that played at least 20 mins a game? Or 30 mins a game?

you can just take the data and sort it in excel and you can get all the data you want.

.100 is league average but obviously not for this past season.

Is it league average for the amount of players able to achieve this rate? Or is it league average due to the level which players are expected to perform at(Which Bonn eluded too)? Or is it league average due to the total amount of win shares 48 when adding all players, divided by the players?

It was / is the league average over a number of seasons is what I would think.

How WS works is documented on BRef.

This year there were many players in the mid .090's so of course things can fluctuate.

Just did a quick sort of the number of players who played > 1000 minutes. There were 275 players of which 131 had a WS48 .100+ ...

Also, if you make the min .098 then you have 139 players that meet that criteria (more than half).

.100 is not a premium, it's average (with a small margin of error +/- from season to season)

I see, there is a big difference between 131 or 139 out of 275 and 167 out of 476. But your measurement of players who played at least 1000 mins would be a better representation.

So its a standard that players should preform to at minimal. The availability of the players that do is 35% among all players and 50.5% among players that play at least 1000 mins.

https://vote.nba.com/en Vote for your Knicks.
Bonn1997
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5/22/2016  7:10 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/22/2016  7:30 AM
mreinman wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
nixluva wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:It depends on the price for these players. However, it's striking how bad the options for a top player are besides Durant.

Earlier Mreinman made that thread about Win shares 48. How the average salary 4mil. Should compare to the average Win Shares 48 which is 100.

Is the average win shares per 48 average due to adding and dividing all Win Share 48 averages? Or is the average win share 48(100.) due to the frequency of players able to play at this level?

For example Steph Curry win share 48 is 318. Which means if 9 other players had an average of 75.7 Win shares 48. The average for all 10 would still be 100. Yet only 1 of them would actually hold a wins shares at 100. or higher. Out of all the players in the league how many actually produce at a 100. Win Shares 48 or higher?


I just did a quick survey of the WS/48 according to Basketball Reference. Only 167 players this year were above .100 out of 476 players. I deducted guys who played less than 30 games, which amounted to 19 players with a WS/48 above .100. Only 14 players with at least 30 games played had a WS/48 above .200!!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

Thanks for that! I tried to ask that question earlier but never really got around to it. So players that perform at 100. aren't really the average but are at a premium.

What about players that played at least 20 mins a game? Or 30 mins a game?

you can just take the data and sort it in excel and you can get all the data you want.

.100 is league average but obviously not for this past season.


It is the average production an NBA player gives per 48 minutes. It's a standardized equation. So it will by definition be average every season as far as I can tell. I've never sorted it like Nixluva did but I think this is what's going on: The better players play more minutes. So there will be fewer of them but they take up more playing time. (This might be what you're asking.) For example, a team might have 5 starters getting 32 min and averaging WS ratings around .130. Then they might have 7 backup players averaging around .080. But those 7 backup players together account for less playing time than the 5 starters. So the average production is .100. The median player (the guy in the middle if you rank order them) is probably a little below .100, though. This shouldn't come as a surprise. There are so many league min players and 10 day contract players.
newyorknewyork
Posts: 30259
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Joined: 1/16/2004
Member: #541
5/22/2016  7:34 AM
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.


I disagree. I don't think his contract is indicative of his actual talent. He is young and clearly needs more development, which the Knicks are actively doing. If he's healthy I expect he'll greatly outperform his contract. I think what Horn is likely to do with this team will benefit Wroten, Jerian and Gallo. If Horn has them doing what he's done in PHX, they should all improve playing a bit more uptempo and with PnR.

You have the right to disagree with the market and have believe that he will outperform his contract. That is like saying that you believe that a team will win by 28 points when they are favored by 3. They can win by 40 but the market is not predicted that and not even close.

We have had these discussions before and we seem to always disagree. I play market even money ...


None of that has any impact on a players work ethic, preparation and determination to improve. It can't predict if a guy like Bruce Bowen would work his butt off and develop a jumper where he had none.

Wroten is not devoid of talent. He's a 23 yr old 1st rd draft pick. There's the potential for him to improve. If Phil didn't think there was anything there he wouldn't have signed at ANY PRICE! There were lots of healthy D League guards he could've taken a chance on.

potential and expectation ... how does that translate?

Nobody can predict a Bruce Bowen, nobody expected bruce to be bruce.

Nobody is arguing if he has talent.

"Officially, according to Yahoo, the New York Knicks and Tony Wroten are finalizing a two-year deal. Which comes on the heel of the Knicks not renewing their original 10-day contract that they signed Jimmer Fredette to last week.

Nevertheless, it appears that the Knicks are ready to invest in Wroten. So what can the Knicks ideally expect from the young point guard?

It’s pretty simple. First of all, not much."

It looks like I will never be able to get my point across here so I will move on.

Wroten makes so little money that anything he produces aside from hurting the team in anyway would exceed his salary lol. But I'm not ready to put any expectations on him. First lets see if he can fully recover from injury. Then lets see if he can stay healthy. Then lets see if he is able to earn playing time from Hornacek. Then from Wroten's own work we can start to develop expectations of him.

https://vote.nba.com/en Vote for your Knicks.
mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/22/2016  1:51 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
nixluva wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:It depends on the price for these players. However, it's striking how bad the options for a top player are besides Durant.

Earlier Mreinman made that thread about Win shares 48. How the average salary 4mil. Should compare to the average Win Shares 48 which is 100.

Is the average win shares per 48 average due to adding and dividing all Win Share 48 averages? Or is the average win share 48(100.) due to the frequency of players able to play at this level?

For example Steph Curry win share 48 is 318. Which means if 9 other players had an average of 75.7 Win shares 48. The average for all 10 would still be 100. Yet only 1 of them would actually hold a wins shares at 100. or higher. Out of all the players in the league how many actually produce at a 100. Win Shares 48 or higher?


I just did a quick survey of the WS/48 according to Basketball Reference. Only 167 players this year were above .100 out of 476 players. I deducted guys who played less than 30 games, which amounted to 19 players with a WS/48 above .100. Only 14 players with at least 30 games played had a WS/48 above .200!!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

Thanks for that! I tried to ask that question earlier but never really got around to it. So players that perform at 100. aren't really the average but are at a premium.

What about players that played at least 20 mins a game? Or 30 mins a game?

you can just take the data and sort it in excel and you can get all the data you want.

.100 is league average but obviously not for this past season.


It is the average production an NBA player gives per 48 minutes. It's a standardized equation. So it will by definition be average every season as far as I can tell. I've never sorted it like Nixluva did but I think this is what's going on: The better players play more minutes. So there will be fewer of them but they take up more playing time. (This might be what you're asking.) For example, a team might have 5 starters getting 32 min and averaging WS ratings around .130. Then they might have 7 backup players averaging around .080. But those 7 backup players together account for less playing time than the 5 starters. So the average production is .100. The median player (the guy in the middle if you rank order them) is probably a little below .100, though. This shouldn't come as a surprise. There are so many league min players and 10 day contract players.

ah ... good clarification and completely makes much more sense.

Interesting how my 1000 minute player avg was right around 50%.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/22/2016  1:52 PM
newyorknewyork wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
mreinman wrote:
nixluva wrote:
stopstandthere wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
nixluva wrote:To help get some kind of idea of what Horn was doing in PHX, here's a video breaking down his offense, which I would assume he'll use to some extent here in NY even if mixed with some Triangle.

I think Grant, Gallo and Wroten will be capable of doing a lot of this stuff. Now as for any upgrades this summer it's clear to me that great speed and handles are gonna be HUGE plusses for anyone Horn might want. Obviously a 3nD SG with speed and athletic ability. We've talked about guys like Crabbe, Bazemore and Fournier. They are guys I can see fitting this style.

Agreed. Bazemore, Fournier, or Crabbe. Must get one of those 3 players. Maybe Augustine, Vasquez, or Chalmers can share time with Grant at PG on a 1-year contract. Galloway, if resigned, can play mostly backup SG. Anything we get from Wroten is a bonus.

Well the thing about Wroten, if he's healthy, is that he's not a blend in guy. If he's on the floor he's gonna be pushing and making things happen. I'm curious to see what Horn can do for our guards in terms of developing them. A kid like Wroten has so much Physical talent. The Speed, handles and explosion is gonna be a plus in Horn's style of uptempo offense IMO. If the paint is open he's getting dunks! Believe me you want his speed pushing the ball and attacking the basket in the halfcourt.

I can see a kid like Wroten thriving in Horn's system as would Grant and Gallo IMO. All of them are at their best pushing the ball and attacking off Picks. Then if you add a Bazemore, Fournier or Crabbe type SG that seems like a great combination for how Horn likes to play.

Wroten and Grant can push the ball but Hornacek wants guys that can shoot the ball as well which as we know Wroten and Grant can't do, Grant is working with C.Jackson and got better with his shooting in his last few games but we definitely need 1 or 2 shooters in free agency.

I would suggest not to expect too much from Wroten. With reference to the past records in the last few season, he did not play many games. And he is a combo guard who cannot shoot on a reliable basis. Well, I hope he proves me wrong for sure.


I completely disagree with this notion that we should not expect much from Wroten. His shooting has been bad but if that was all he could do then that would be more of a problem. Fortunately he can do a lot of important things like pushing the ball, breaking down a defense and getting to the rim at will and he passes well enough. He's going to be able to work off screens, dribble handoffs and PnR and set up his teammates a LOT. He would give us another long and quick perimeter defender as well.

Wroten has to improve his 3pt and FT shooting. He barely ever takes midrange shots. He's either getting layups or taking 3's. He just has to get better shooting 3's and FT's. I'm not expecting miracles, but if he can make decent improvement I think he'll be a very positive addition.

I would not expect much out of wroten ... always better to lower expectations.

Wroten did not take mid range shots because he played for Philly who like houston, does not have that shot or allow that shot as part of their repertoire.


I know the reason he was doing that. It's really not the most important thing to focus on. What is most important is that he learned to play that way. It is a good thing that Wroten has been trained to either score at the rim or take the 3. It's exactly what he's gonna be doing for Horn.

Wroten needs to improve his shooting and he's obviously working on that. This idea that we shouldn't expect much needs some clarification. What does that even mean? He's actually one of the youngest Knicks and I think he's still got serious upside. The main thing for Wroten is to get his leg strong, improve his shooting and stay healthy. He needs to learn how to play winning ball and i'm sure the Knicks staff has been working with him and will be working with him on doing just that.

Wroten has a lot of talent. I'm pulling for him to thrive here. Even more so now that we have Horn coaching. I think what he's likely to have the team do will fit perfectly with Wroten's strengths. He's super cheap and if he can be developed that will be a huge plus.

I am happy that we got wroten and that we have him on a cheap deal with many caveats. He got this type of deal because of the low chances of success that he has.

That is not a bad thing and one that you should get defensive about. I would not expect much from a guy like this and if we get something out of him, I will be thrilled. As I have said, I always expect very little and I am happy if they perform above expectations / contract.

This is not about arguing what he is capable and how tall he is and how fast he is ... I expect players to play up to their contract. The contract he got was dictated by the level of expectations that the knicks and the market expected of him.

As I have said, I wish and hope that we try out 10 Tony Wroten's.


All this you wrote and still you feel it's necessary to add that we should not expect much out of Wroten anytime his name comes up. Then you wonder why I would respond and argue over the notion. What his contract is should not be the determining factor on what we should expect from him. There are circumstances that made it the practical thing to do given his injury history. That doesn't mean that he will play down to the level of the contract he was given nor that we should expect that. His contract wasn't about expectations but rather about risk.


Risk factor factors into expectations. If the league/teams expected more from him then he would have gotten paid more.

I am completely ok if you or others "hope" for him to exceed his contract but I will not expect more than his worth on the open market.


I disagree. I don't think his contract is indicative of his actual talent. He is young and clearly needs more development, which the Knicks are actively doing. If he's healthy I expect he'll greatly outperform his contract. I think what Horn is likely to do with this team will benefit Wroten, Jerian and Gallo. If Horn has them doing what he's done in PHX, they should all improve playing a bit more uptempo and with PnR.

You have the right to disagree with the market and have believe that he will outperform his contract. That is like saying that you believe that a team will win by 28 points when they are favored by 3. They can win by 40 but the market is not predicted that and not even close.

We have had these discussions before and we seem to always disagree. I play market even money ...


None of that has any impact on a players work ethic, preparation and determination to improve. It can't predict if a guy like Bruce Bowen would work his butt off and develop a jumper where he had none.

Wroten is not devoid of talent. He's a 23 yr old 1st rd draft pick. There's the potential for him to improve. If Phil didn't think there was anything there he wouldn't have signed at ANY PRICE! There were lots of healthy D League guards he could've taken a chance on.

potential and expectation ... how does that translate?

Nobody can predict a Bruce Bowen, nobody expected bruce to be bruce.

Nobody is arguing if he has talent.

"Officially, according to Yahoo, the New York Knicks and Tony Wroten are finalizing a two-year deal. Which comes on the heel of the Knicks not renewing their original 10-day contract that they signed Jimmer Fredette to last week.

Nevertheless, it appears that the Knicks are ready to invest in Wroten. So what can the Knicks ideally expect from the young point guard?

It’s pretty simple. First of all, not much."

It looks like I will never be able to get my point across here so I will move on.

Wroten makes so little money that anything he produces aside from hurting the team in anyway would exceed his salary lol. But I'm not ready to put any expectations on him. First lets see if he can fully recover from injury. Then lets see if he can stay healthy. Then lets see if he is able to earn playing time from Hornacek. Then from Wroten's own work we can start to develop expectations of him.

Yes. Good signing and I hope we try many more like it.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Who Would Horn Prefer from Win Share 48 List?

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