crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:I don't think there's anything wrong with what Melo said. He's right. If the Knicks can't build a contender through FA, it is time to think about this stuff.

I can see the case for trading Melo. I can see the case for trying to build around him in FA.

I think I'd feel better about trading him at this point, but I will be on board to root for him if we can get some good guards in the off-season.

good guards? Like wroten, jennings, and that other stiff turner from boston?

we need to trade him before we suck every ounce of value out of him. I am sure that at this point, he is really considering waving his NTC.

Still waiting for you to suggest a viable alternative.

While you're at it find me the analytical explanation for Lance Stephenson posting a .410 TS% in Charlotte last year and .569 TS% in Memphis this year.

Sometimes it's about fit.

I don't have a better suggestion and that is why I would say trade melo.

If we over pay for Conley or Batum, maybe that will work but I would not do it.

This is turning into a kindof starphuck because we need to do a full rebuild.

Ok cool. I'll wait on the analytics explanation, too!

on lance? Do I need to explain an anomaly/out liar?

Your whole view on analytics seems way off just based on this question. I am not just a guy who believes in the extreme importance of analytics. EVERY TEAM DOES!! well at least almost every team or at least the ones who don't let an old ego get in the way.

No, I am sincerely curious. His TS% is back to what it was in Indiana this season. Why was the Charlotte TS% SUCH an anomaly? That's a valid question, no? Shouldn't Charlotte have been able to expect Lance to play to his career norms?

I'd argue that that is where the more subjective notion of "fit" comes in, as opposed to something you can analytically define.

But I am honestly curious if there is a statistical way to predict fit. I would say no there is not a way to predict fit and that's where experienced and subjective notions of team building fit in - aka you kind of have to be able to envision how your team will work and how the pieces will fit and PREDICT statistical success. But if there is a way to statistically predict it, I am curious. Seriously.

for starters, lance stephenson is a talented player with a clear personality disorder and psychologically unstable so he is a bad example.

TS is eerily consistent though of course things like team fit and other external circumstances can affect it but most likely, it won't move the needle as much as you would think for most players.

crzymdups wrote:

Asked after practice Friday if he can guarantee he will be a Knick next season, Anthony demurred. Since he has a no-trade clause, Anthony holds the cards on whether he stays and where he might go.

“S–t, I don’t know,’’ Anthony answered. “I honesty … it’s hard to answer those type of questions when you don’t know what’s going to happen. We still have a month left to the season. To be thinking, ‘Am I going to be on this team next (season)?’ That’s for you to speculate.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen this summer,’’ Anthony added. “I can’t predict that.”

http://nypost.com/2016/03/18/s-t-i-dont-know-carmelos-bleakest-knicks-buy-in-yet/

My favorite part is how Berman ends the article.

Anthony spoke Friday at an empty Georgetown gym while receiving updates about the Syracuse-Dayton NCAA Tournament game. Because he had taken a long cold bath, the team bus left for the hotel without him.

Take Carmelo and the 10 games he has played in March for example, his TS% is over 60% so far but for the most part he has avg 53%.

sometimes players go on a good run(Joe Johsnon/Heat). Sometimes players have bad years. All you can really do is look at their past to try to judge their futures. System fit is sometimes a factor but it is rare that one will jump to one extreme to another unless they are rookies.

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:
No, I am sincerely curious. His TS% is back to what it was in Indiana this season. Why was the Charlotte TS% SUCH an anomaly? That's a valid question, no? Shouldn't Charlotte have been able to expect Lance to play to his career norms?

I'd argue that that is where the more subjective notion of "fit" comes in, as opposed to something you can analytically define.

But I am honestly curious if there is a statistical way to predict fit. I would say no there is not a way to predict fit and that's where experienced and subjective notions of team building fit in - aka you kind of have to be able to envision how your team will work and how the pieces will fit and PREDICT statistical success. But if there is a way to statistically predict it, I am curious. Seriously.

for starters, lance stephenson is a talented player with a clear personality disorder and psychologically unstable so he is a bad example.

TS is eerily consistent though of course things like team fit and other external circumstances can affect it but most likely, it won't move the needle as much as you would think for most players.

How about, say, Goran Dragic. He went from TS% of .604 and .577 in Phoenix to .530 in Miami. Is that just natural career regression as he ages - though he should still be in his prime? Bad fit?

DeMarre Carroll? .603 TS% in ATL last season .489 TS% in TOR this season.

Tobias Harris? .541 TS% in ORL and now .605 TS% in DET.

It seems like there can be substantive changes to TS% when a player changes teams. Like it is how a player is used in an offense and not some innate inner TS% they carry around with them from team to team.

To me it is about fit and a player's role. Their efficiency can increase if you put the right guy in the right situation. Or decrease if it is a bad fit.

a 7 point spread is very possible but they really need to be judged over time. Also, of course it depends on how efficient of a system they are running.

T. Harris in detroit is too small of a sample but one to def track. For starters, detroit is playing fast and smart ball while orlando is one of those stupid franchise that plays clueless ball.

again, hard to judge from 1 season. One season is way too small to define a player.

Lance stephenson going from 41 to 56 is not normal.

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:You also have to factor in sample sizes, so using mid year trades/pick ups does not really do the stats justice.

Take Carmelo and the 10 games he has played in March for example, his TS% is over 60% so far but for the most part he has avg 53%.

sometimes players go on a good run(Joe Johsnon/Heat). Sometimes players have bad years. All you can really do is look at their past to try to judge their futures. System fit is sometimes a factor but it is rare that one will jump to one extreme to another unless they are rookies.

Fair enough. Though I think it is fair to argue that Goran Dragic was far more effective in Phoenix, based on style of play and roster makeup.

And I don't know any predictive model that could've explained Lance Stephenson's abberration in Charlotte - he certainly wasn't a rookie.

And Tobias Harris has been way more effective in Detroit and he's no rookie.

I'm just saying that flatly looking at stats is not the best predictive indicator - situation, offensive style, roster makeup does play a large role in on court success.

this is the line that for some reason people still use though nobody ever said to do. Quite the contrary. But I'm sure that people will still use this as a trump card when needed

okay, so you agree that looking flatly at WS/48 and TS% are not the only metrics to use to judge a player's value and potential in a new team situation?

because that style didn't really work for Houston, for one thing.

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:You also have to factor in sample sizes, so using mid year trades/pick ups does not really do the stats justice.

Take Carmelo and the 10 games he has played in March for example, his TS% is over 60% so far but for the most part he has avg 53%.

sometimes players go on a good run(Joe Johsnon/Heat). Sometimes players have bad years. All you can really do is look at their past to try to judge their futures. System fit is sometimes a factor but it is rare that one will jump to one extreme to another unless they are rookies.

Fair enough. Though I think it is fair to argue that Goran Dragic was far more effective in Phoenix, based on style of play and roster makeup.

And I don't know any predictive model that could've explained Lance Stephenson's abberration in Charlotte - he certainly wasn't a rookie.

And Tobias Harris has been way more effective in Detroit and he's no rookie.

I'm just saying that flatly looking at stats is not the best predictive indicator - situation, offensive style, roster makeup does play a large role in on court success.

this is the line that for some reason people still use though nobody ever said to do. Quite the contrary. But I'm sure that people will still use this as a trump card when needed

okay, so you agree that looking flatly at WS/48 and TS% are not the only metrics to use to judge a player's value and potential in a new team situation?

because that style didn't really work for Houston, for one thing.

you are losing me here. I don't think that you can flatly look at anything.

I can say however, that a player who clearly can't shoot (yet) and who has so far been a brutal NBA player with brutal efficiency, has a very little chance to turn it around and become a good player.

Can he? Of course he CAN!

And what didn't work for Houston?

building a team focusing on analytics and ignoring team fit and personality fit and roster makeup.

Ty Lawson went from .557 TS% in Denver to .478 TS% in Houston, for instance.

and I think it is crazy to look at a 22yr old's TS% or WS48 and assume they cannot dramatically improve.

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:I don't think there's anything wrong with what Melo said. He's right. If the Knicks can't build a contender through FA, it is time to think about this stuff.

I can see the case for trading Melo. I can see the case for trying to build around him in FA.

I think I'd feel better about trading him at this point, but I will be on board to root for him if we can get some good guards in the off-season.

good guards? Like wroten, jennings, and that other stiff turner from boston?

we need to trade him before we suck every ounce of value out of him. I am sure that at this point, he is really considering waving his NTC.

Still waiting for you to suggest a viable alternative.

While you're at it find me the analytical explanation for Lance Stephenson posting a .410 TS% in Charlotte last year and .569 TS% in Memphis this year.

Sometimes it's about fit.

knicks1248 wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:Th team will be better for trading Carmelo Anthony--making its own identity--focusing on several younger guards who move the ball and play the game the right way and developing KP. Keeping Carmelo makes no sense if we can get a good deal. Hes going to be 33 next year--we are NOT winning anything and we will NEVER win with him. Hes a good NBA talent that's here and the wrong time. We/he had his chance when he forced his way here and we gave up the boatload of assets we couldve surrounded him with either through trade or keeping them. We gave it up had little in the till and thats that. Its not happening now

Briggs WHEN HAVE THE KNICKS EVER MADE A GOOD TRADE THAT BENFITTED THEM, OTHER THEN SPREWELL( and that was only because he was coming of the choking incident)

So how can you have faith in a franchise that hasn't made a good trade in 20 yrs, has made one decent draft pick in the same amount of time..

Are you blind?

The last 3 major trades set the franchise back 3 yrs..Melo, shump, JR, bargiani, dude I can keep going back to the mcdyess trade..

While true, that's irrelevant. We need to move on and so does Melo. I like him as a player. He definitely earned some respect from me with his play this season. But the window has closed. KP is our future, along with (hopefully) NJ's pick and our lotto pick in 2017 (from sucking next season). That's our future. Let's get to it quickly so that Martin and Andrew can one day have a board with some hope and optimism expressed more regularly.

Finestrg wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:I don't think there's anything wrong with what Melo said. He's right. If the Knicks can't build a contender through FA, it is time to think about this stuff.

I can see the case for trading Melo. I can see the case for trying to build around him in FA.

I think I'd feel better about trading him at this point, but I will be on board to root for him if we can get some good guards in the off-season.

good guards? Like wroten, jennings, and that other stiff turner from boston?

we need to trade him before we suck every ounce of value out of him. I am sure that at this point, he is really considering waving his NTC.

Still waiting for you to suggest a viable alternative.

While you're at it find me the analytical explanation for Lance Stephenson posting a .410 TS% in Charlotte last year and .569 TS% in Memphis this year.

Sometimes it's about fit.

I haven't watched the Grizzlies recently but I saw Lance is starting at the point. Do you know if that is where he gets his minutes or is it just the line up they start out with? He is putting up really good numbers.

Speaking of the Grizzlies, I didn't even remember the PJ Hairston trade going down. I tell ya what--I know he hasn't done much so far and I think he's hurt now and may miss several weeks. Then he's an UFA this summer--Memphis may choose to pass on him now. This is one of those talented youngsters out there who may not be that highly thought of--a guy we take a flier on to see if we can catch some lightning in a bottle. 6'6" 230, only 23 years old and he can shoot the ball. I think he might be better than THJ, just to give a comparison.

Didn't the Knicks have him in for an interview when he was a free agent? Or maybe it was reported Phil was trying to sign him?

In that vein - his replacement in Charlotte, Courtney Lee is playing GREAT and is also a UFA this summer.

Knicks could do some mid-range guard shopping.

Say Afflalo opts out and we stretch Jose. Could they sign Brandon Jennings, Courtney Lee, Kent Bazemore for $25M total?

Finestrg wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

Finestrg wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:I don't think there's anything wrong with what Melo said. He's right. If the Knicks can't build a contender through FA, it is time to think about this stuff.

I can see the case for trading Melo. I can see the case for trying to build around him in FA.

I think I'd feel better about trading him at this point, but I will be on board to root for him if we can get some good guards in the off-season.

good guards? Like wroten, jennings, and that other stiff turner from boston?

we need to trade him before we suck every ounce of value out of him. I am sure that at this point, he is really considering waving his NTC.

Still waiting for you to suggest a viable alternative.

While you're at it find me the analytical explanation for Lance Stephenson posting a .410 TS% in Charlotte last year and .569 TS% in Memphis this year.

Sometimes it's about fit.

I haven't watched the Grizzlies recently but I saw Lance is starting at the point. Do you know if that is where he gets his minutes or is it just the line up they start out with? He is putting up really good numbers.

Speaking of the Grizzlies, I didn't even remember the PJ Hairston trade going down. I tell ya what--I know he hasn't done much so far and I think he's hurt now and may miss several weeks. Then he's an UFA this summer--Memphis may choose to pass on him now. This is one of those talented youngsters out there who may not be that highly thought of--a guy we take a flier on to see if we can catch some lightning in a bottle. 6'6" 230, only 23 years old and he can shoot the ball. I think he might be better than THJ, just to give a comparison.

Didn't the Knicks have him in for an interview when he was a free agent? Or maybe it was reported Phil was trying to sign him?

In that vein - his replacement in Charlotte, Courtney Lee is playing GREAT and is also a UFA this summer.

Knicks could do some mid-range guard shopping.

Say Afflalo opts out and we stretch Jose. Could they sign Brandon Jennings, Courtney Lee, Kent Bazemore for $25M total?

Did they interview Hairston? I don't remember.. I remember they worked out Elliot Williams last offseason, I think out in Vegas at one point... Lee and Bazemore are definitely possibilities. Just looking over the FA list again for potential bargains. How 'bout Solomon Hill? 6'7" 225, he's a 3 that might be able to play some 2. Strong, plays aggressive/hard.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/19/knicks-looking-to-trade-up-have-eyes-on-troubled-p-j-hairston/

Knicks were looking at him at the draft.

Might be something to keep in mind - Phil might look at him as a FA this summer.

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

mreinman wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:You also have to factor in sample sizes, so using mid year trades/pick ups does not really do the stats justice.

Take Carmelo and the 10 games he has played in March for example, his TS% is over 60% so far but for the most part he has avg 53%.

sometimes players go on a good run(Joe Johsnon/Heat). Sometimes players have bad years. All you can really do is look at their past to try to judge their futures. System fit is sometimes a factor but it is rare that one will jump to one extreme to another unless they are rookies.

Fair enough. Though I think it is fair to argue that Goran Dragic was far more effective in Phoenix, based on style of play and roster makeup.

And I don't know any predictive model that could've explained Lance Stephenson's abberration in Charlotte - he certainly wasn't a rookie.

And Tobias Harris has been way more effective in Detroit and he's no rookie.

I'm just saying that flatly looking at stats is not the best predictive indicator - situation, offensive style, roster makeup does play a large role in on court success.

this is the line that for some reason people still use though nobody ever said to do. Quite the contrary. But I'm sure that people will still use this as a trump card when needed

okay, so you agree that looking flatly at WS/48 and TS% are not the only metrics to use to judge a player's value and potential in a new team situation?

because that style didn't really work for Houston, for one thing.

you are losing me here. I don't think that you can flatly look at anything.

I can say however, that a player who clearly can't shoot (yet) and who has so far been a brutal NBA player with brutal efficiency, has a very little chance to turn it around and become a good player.

Can he? Of course he CAN!

And what didn't work for Houston?

building a team focusing on analytics and ignoring team fit and personality fit and roster makeup.

Ty Lawson went from .557 TS% in Denver to .478 TS% in Houston, for instance.

and I think it is crazy to look at a 22yr old's TS% or WS48 and assume they cannot dramatically improve.

they CAN CAN CAN CAN CAN dramatically improve. They CAN also go to the hall of fame.

Didn't Houston go from being a nobody from going to the playoffs a few times and pushing one of the best teams of our generation in the WCF? So not working means not winning a ring? How bad is this argument? They made something out of nothing. The worst move they made was getting rid of lowry.

You can't just grasp at examples that you have in your head. Track some of these stats for a few months and you will see that it is the best predictor that you have at your fingertips. It is way way way more right than wrong. Finding out liars is irrelevant. There are always and there will always be out liars.

TONY WROTEN CAN CAN CAN be a very good player. He just probably won't be so therefore I would not guarantee him money nor would I give money to habitually bad or below average players like jennings or turner.

You want to pay these guys on gut? Go ahead. Asking me what I suggest that is better does not make paying your bad players a better argument.

You keep ignoring other factors outside of your favorite stats and calling it "gut" as an insult. You fail to realize that the so called "gut" way has been responsible for more winning franchises than your beloved Metrics have! All of the stuff you believe in is still relatively new.

Analytics has its place but it's not the end all be all. There are other ways to evaluate players. Also you gotta lighten up on this notion that the Knicks would somehow invest too much in a prospect like Wroten. Literally NO ONE is suggesting giving him significant guaranteed money before he proves himself.