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Hinkie's Sixers: Bad Plan, Bad Execution, or both?
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mreinman
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11/18/2015  1:11 PM
martin wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

Or some are just over obsessed with them

I am obsessed with it. I am not sold on it but I love the experiments.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
AUTOADVERT
bigbasketballs
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11/18/2015  1:12 PM
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

mreinman
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11/18/2015  1:13 PM
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

so here is what phil is thinking ....
fishmike
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11/18/2015  1:16 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
fishmike wrote:
jrodmc wrote:WTF is this doing in the Knicks Forum?
need a good place to poop? Try this thread.

Some truth to what you guys are saying...but to me the post goes to how you build a franchise, something that has been an problem for the Knicks in recent years.

I'm a believer in using the draft...assuming you choose wisely, or course, but Hinkie is doing his best to show how you can screw up a slow rebuild.

You can see his draft history here:http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/draft.html

Has a bunch of picks in 2016, not sure I would want Hinkie making the picks if I own the Sixers, but if he does not have the framework from a good team next year, and they finish in the lottery again, he should be canned.

You need to use it all. I have become quiet a Phil as GM fan. Why? He has shown to use every avenue to improve, and that is a must. The competition is too tough to sleep on any resource.

You must use the draft. Phil is doing that both at the top and the bottom.
You must develop from within. Incomplete, but Phil has certainly targeted players who can improve here.
You must look everywhere for talent. Nice to see us using the the D league. Galloway is a huge part of this team's success.
You must build a team. Fisher may not be perfect, and certainly Melo has his flaws but Melo got the team together before they were a team, and Fisher is pushing a lot of the right buttons.

This is why I dont get too caught up in one bad player or deal that didnt work. Jerry West had bad drafts, the teams that sustained great runs (titles or otherwise) employ it all. A couple great players can make you look genius, but we have been waiting for saviors for too long. Nice to see this being build the right way

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
bigbasketballs
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11/18/2015  1:19 PM
mreinman wrote:
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

Which makes designing a team to put up 17 wins seasons 4, 5 years in a row all the more dubious.

At least put a respectable product on the floor.

Knixkik
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11/18/2015  1:21 PM
ChuckBuck wrote:Good thing Sam Hinkie is a disciple of the much lauded and fabled Daryl Morey of bball Moneyball fame.

Those analytics have Houston....wait. What's that? Houston just fired their head coach?!!?

Yea, sorry Hinkie....recipe for failure.

Hinkie's only analytics with the Sixers has been to be as bad as possible to acquire higher picks, and the more picks you add, the more chances you get to drafting someone good. Not very clever.

bigbasketballs
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11/18/2015  1:25 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2015  1:25 PM
Knixkik wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:Good thing Sam Hinkie is a disciple of the much lauded and fabled Daryl Morey of bball Moneyball fame.

Those analytics have Houston....wait. What's that? Houston just fired their head coach?!!?

Yea, sorry Hinkie....recipe for failure.

Hinkie's only analytics with the Sixers has been to be as bad as possible to acquire higher picks, and the more picks you add, the more chances you get to drafting someone good. Not very clever.

Exactly… think of how many picks Ainge might be willing to give up if Jackson offered him Porzingis?

Think of the 2017 and beyond pick(s) Galloway might fetch at the deadline?

Not rocket science to hold fire sales and your return will naturally increase if you're willing to defer compensation for years down the road.

ChuckBuck
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11/18/2015  1:29 PM
Knixkik wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:Good thing Sam Hinkie is a disciple of the much lauded and fabled Daryl Morey of bball Moneyball fame.

Those analytics have Houston....wait. What's that? Houston just fired their head coach?!!?

Yea, sorry Hinkie....recipe for failure.

Hinkie's only analytics with the Sixers has been to be as bad as possible to acquire higher picks, and the more picks you add, the more chances you get to drafting someone good. Not very clever.

Yea...tanking just to tank some more tankety tank tank. Tanking will get us the #1 pick!

BUT BUT Nerlens and Okafor and Dario and Brokembiid...what's that? OUR draft pick is TOP 3 protected!!>>!!>!>!>

So much for tanking...

Like most logical posters have been saying, you have to cash those picks in at some point, because you sure as hell aren't going to pay everybody. Have to package a bunch of picks and land a star somehow, but also you have to make it an attractive destination also for free agents. Can't be tankety tank tank only. Has to be a combination, some picks, a system, a coach, clear cut improvement from year to year, and cap room to sign quality free agents.

Illadelphia being a stinkhole destination isn't helping either. Bars close at like 1 or 2AM, that freakin' sucks!

fishmike
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11/18/2015  1:29 PM
mreinman wrote:
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

its a joke because they have made it a joke.

the Knicks added a bunch of guy who play like pros. The 76rs avoided bringing in anyone who can help them win games.

As for the stat geeks the old one's still win games. As in the team that turns it over less, rebounds the most, hits their FTs and eventually outscore their opponents. The best point of the analytics Ive heard was using those numbers to convince an owner that a player is worth money beyong traditional stats. Like Lopez for that matter. His #s scream backup, but his advanced stats say his impact his higher than his production.

Great teams are built with soldiers and leaders. Not stat models. I enjoy the story they often tell... the +/- numbers, the advanced stats... I like them all. This "new NBA" isnt anything new at all. There is only one real change I see and if anyone should get credit it probably Mike DAntoni. Rather that playing "traditional" lineups you play your best guys. Better to play a 6'6 guy at PF who is more talented than a 6'10 guy. Aside from that what has changed? More 3's? Golden State is built on the best shooting backcourt probably of all time, not a stat model.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
newyorknewyork
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11/18/2015  3:58 PM
fishmike wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
fishmike wrote:
jrodmc wrote:WTF is this doing in the Knicks Forum?
need a good place to poop? Try this thread.

Some truth to what you guys are saying...but to me the post goes to how you build a franchise, something that has been an problem for the Knicks in recent years.

I'm a believer in using the draft...assuming you choose wisely, or course, but Hinkie is doing his best to show how you can screw up a slow rebuild.

You can see his draft history here:http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/draft.html

Has a bunch of picks in 2016, not sure I would want Hinkie making the picks if I own the Sixers, but if he does not have the framework from a good team next year, and they finish in the lottery again, he should be canned.

You need to use it all. I have become quiet a Phil as GM fan. Why? He has shown to use every avenue to improve, and that is a must. The competition is too tough to sleep on any resource.

You must use the draft. Phil is doing that both at the top and the bottom.
You must develop from within. Incomplete, but Phil has certainly targeted players who can improve here.
You must look everywhere for talent. Nice to see us using the the D league. Galloway is a huge part of this team's success.
You must build a team. Fisher may not be perfect, and certainly Melo has his flaws but Melo got the team together before they were a team, and Fisher is pushing a lot of the right buttons.

This is why I dont get too caught up in one bad player or deal that didnt work. Jerry West had bad drafts, the teams that sustained great runs (titles or otherwise) employ it all. A couple great players can make you look genius, but we have been waiting for saviors for too long. Nice to see this being build the right way

Good post. Phil has great potential as a Prez because he is a basketball mind who is great with ppl. Who can always learn and use analytics. While its harder for an analitic guy to develop the basketball mind and people skills Phil has if they dont have it.

Some tried to say Phil was just a good coach while everyone else made the moves. But I doubted that since any coach who wins mulitpleb championships will be given tons of power within the org. And there is no way a personality like Phil only played yes man and good solider.

https://vote.nba.com/en Vote for your Knicks.
Knixkik
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11/18/2015  4:35 PM
ChuckBuck wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:Good thing Sam Hinkie is a disciple of the much lauded and fabled Daryl Morey of bball Moneyball fame.

Those analytics have Houston....wait. What's that? Houston just fired their head coach?!!?

Yea, sorry Hinkie....recipe for failure.

Hinkie's only analytics with the Sixers has been to be as bad as possible to acquire higher picks, and the more picks you add, the more chances you get to drafting someone good. Not very clever.

Yea...tanking just to tank some more tankety tank tank. Tanking will get us the #1 pick!

BUT BUT Nerlens and Okafor and Dario and Brokembiid...what's that? OUR draft pick is TOP 3 protected!!>>!!>!>!>

So much for tanking...

Like most logical posters have been saying, you have to cash those picks in at some point, because you sure as hell aren't going to pay everybody. Have to package a bunch of picks and land a star somehow, but also you have to make it an attractive destination also for free agents. Can't be tankety tank tank only. Has to be a combination, some picks, a system, a coach, clear cut improvement from year to year, and cap room to sign quality free agents.

Illadelphia being a stinkhole destination isn't helping either. Bars close at like 1 or 2AM, that freakin' sucks!


We keep going back to the Celtic (Ainge) as the model way to rebuild. They started their rebuild the exact same time as the Sixer did. They found a sucker for their aging stars, and Ainge had the foresight to get their compensation stretched out over time. Hinkie did not trade Evan Turner, for example, soon enough, when he was really killing. He didn't trade him until his numbers came back down to earth a little, and didn't get much for him. Hinkie seems to think only in extremes. Ainge has progressed his team to a playoff team while maintaining major flexibility and an amazing draft situation. Doing both at the same time is how you rebuild a team. Hinkie believes you must do one or the other. He won't start cashing in until he feels like he has stalled long enough. By then, Celtics will already be back to contention.
mreinman
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11/18/2015  4:39 PM
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

its a joke because they have made it a joke.

the Knicks added a bunch of guy who play like pros. The 76rs avoided bringing in anyone who can help them win games.

As for the stat geeks the old one's still win games. As in the team that turns it over less, rebounds the most, hits their FTs and eventually outscore their opponents. The best point of the analytics Ive heard was using those numbers to convince an owner that a player is worth money beyong traditional stats. Like Lopez for that matter. His #s scream backup, but his advanced stats say his impact his higher than his production.

Great teams are built with soldiers and leaders. Not stat models. I enjoy the story they often tell... the +/- numbers, the advanced stats... I like them all. This "new NBA" isnt anything new at all. There is only one real change I see and if anyone should get credit it probably Mike DAntoni. Rather that playing "traditional" lineups you play your best guys. Better to play a 6'6 guy at PF who is more talented than a 6'10 guy. Aside from that what has changed? More 3's? Golden State is built on the best shooting backcourt probably of all time, not a stat model.

Before Hinkie, who was the last FA that signed in Philly?

so here is what phil is thinking ....
gunsnewing
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11/18/2015  4:40 PM
crzymdups wrote:I think Okafor and Nerlens Noel is the beginning of an interesting foundation.

If they strike gold in the lotto this year, they could have three very good young players. Or possibly four if they get that Lakers pick, too.

That said, I think his overall strategy has included a lot of dumb moves. And I think intentionally spending top three picks on injured guys is a foolhardy move.

I think you have to give him through the draft this year and see what their team looks like.

This

SwishAndDish13
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11/18/2015  5:01 PM
I've stated this before in the forum, but I really think he is just giving himself job security and that he has no real plan. If you look at what he's doing he keeps deferring for future assets but gets assets only to defer to the future again. Ponzi scheme like in a way. Pretty genius bc it puts management in a tough spot to fire him in anything less than 7 years.
gunsnewing
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11/18/2015  5:11 PM
Knixkik wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:Good thing Sam Hinkie is a disciple of the much lauded and fabled Daryl Morey of bball Moneyball fame.

Those analytics have Houston....wait. What's that? Houston just fired their head coach?!!?

Yea, sorry Hinkie....recipe for failure.

Hinkie's only analytics with the Sixers has been to be as bad as possible to acquire higher picks, and the more picks you add, the more chances you get to drafting someone good. Not very clever.

Yea...tanking just to tank some more tankety tank tank. Tanking will get us the #1 pick!

BUT BUT Nerlens and Okafor and Dario and Brokembiid...what's that? OUR draft pick is TOP 3 protected!!>>!!>!>!>

So much for tanking...

Like most logical posters have been saying, you have to cash those picks in at some point, because you sure as hell aren't going to pay everybody. Have to package a bunch of picks and land a star somehow, but also you have to make it an attractive destination also for free agents. Can't be tankety tank tank only. Has to be a combination, some picks, a system, a coach, clear cut improvement from year to year, and cap room to sign quality free agents.

Illadelphia being a stinkhole destination isn't helping either. Bars close at like 1 or 2AM, that freakin' sucks!


We keep going back to the Celtic (Ainge) as the model way to rebuild. They started their rebuild the exact same time as the Sixer did. They found a sucker for their aging stars, and Ainge had the foresight to get their compensation stretched out over time. Hinkie did not trade Evan Turner, for example, soon enough, when he was really killing. He didn't trade him until his numbers came back down to earth a little, and didn't get much for him. Hinkie seems to think only in extremes. Ainge has progressed his team to a playoff team while maintaining major flexibility and an amazing draft situation. Doing both at the same time is how you rebuild a team. Hinkie believes you must do one or the other. He won't start cashing in until he feels like he has stalled long enough. By then, Celtics will already be back to contention.

Well said. Sixers better hit on the best player this year or his going to get fired. The draft isn't great for but there should be 1-2 franchise players in there. Bottomline line is their scouting department sucks for all the credit the Sixers get for being mad scientists. You have to look deeper than who is the most popular US. College player. Saric might be the saving grace if he ever comes over but certainly no guarantee. Can't be banking on a player who has never played in the NBA. This is he make or break year for Hinkie. Sixers fans will tear the city down if he prolongs this rebuild again and keeps missing out on franchise players. Hit on a pick and you are set. Keep missing on them and you better have a backup plan to build a winner. That seems tombs the problem. Good GM's prepare for everything. They have plans a,b,c. Hinkie on the other hand puts all his chips on landing the #1 pick which is a major crapshoot. Once plan A quickly fails after lotto night he doesn't have the other NBA GM skills to go adjust plus plan on the fly and build a winner in a different way. We were all down on The Knicks for blowing the 1st pick but The Knicks scouting department didn't just lay down and die. They took advantage of other lottery teams, the lakers and Sixers being too fixated on college basketball to go out and really scout and work up a relationship with KP. They had the olio per hand in projecting how his game would translate in the NBA by scouting him vigorously in Spain, the 2nd strongest league in the world

gunsnewing
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11/18/2015  5:14 PM
mreinman wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

its a joke because they have made it a joke.

the Knicks added a bunch of guy who play like pros. The 76rs avoided bringing in anyone who can help them win games.

As for the stat geeks the old one's still win games. As in the team that turns it over less, rebounds the most, hits their FTs and eventually outscore their opponents. The best point of the analytics Ive heard was using those numbers to convince an owner that a player is worth money beyong traditional stats. Like Lopez for that matter. His #s scream backup, but his advanced stats say his impact his higher than his production.

Great teams are built with soldiers and leaders. Not stat models. I enjoy the story they often tell... the +/- numbers, the advanced stats... I like them all. This "new NBA" isnt anything new at all. There is only one real change I see and if anyone should get credit it probably Mike DAntoni. Rather that playing "traditional" lineups you play your best guys. Better to play a 6'6 guy at PF who is more talented than a 6'10 guy. Aside from that what has changed? More 3's? Golden State is built on the best shooting backcourt probably of all time, not a stat model.

Before Hinkie, who was the last FA that signed in Philly?

Before Hinkie it was Billy King. I don't think I need to expand any further. Hilly King might be the worst GM in NBA history. Worst than Isiah. Amazing how he is allowed to keep his job and keep firing coaches

mreinman
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11/18/2015  5:56 PM
gunsnewing wrote:
mreinman wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

its a joke because they have made it a joke.

the Knicks added a bunch of guy who play like pros. The 76rs avoided bringing in anyone who can help them win games.

As for the stat geeks the old one's still win games. As in the team that turns it over less, rebounds the most, hits their FTs and eventually outscore their opponents. The best point of the analytics Ive heard was using those numbers to convince an owner that a player is worth money beyong traditional stats. Like Lopez for that matter. His #s scream backup, but his advanced stats say his impact his higher than his production.

Great teams are built with soldiers and leaders. Not stat models. I enjoy the story they often tell... the +/- numbers, the advanced stats... I like them all. This "new NBA" isnt anything new at all. There is only one real change I see and if anyone should get credit it probably Mike DAntoni. Rather that playing "traditional" lineups you play your best guys. Better to play a 6'6 guy at PF who is more talented than a 6'10 guy. Aside from that what has changed? More 3's? Golden State is built on the best shooting backcourt probably of all time, not a stat model.

Before Hinkie, who was the last FA that signed in Philly?

Before Hinkie it was Billy King. I don't think I need to expand any further. Hilly King might be the worst GM in NBA history. Worst than Isiah. Amazing how he is allowed to keep his job and keep firing coaches

Ok ... before Billy King, who was the last big FA to sign in Philly.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
nixluva
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11/18/2015  6:11 PM
I said it before and it still holds, Hinkie still has to show he can build a team. What Phil got criticized for by all the young Metrics guys is his reliance on good ole BBall Principles. Phil wasn't saying Analytics doesn't play a role but he also made sure that good ole fashioned BBall Widsom was used in vetting the players he brought in. Phil and his staff did their due diligence in terms of not just talent but the mental makeup of the players and their fit for Phil's style of basketball.

Phil went into this summer with crystal clear roles he wanted filled. He actually KNOWS how to construct a team based on his experience and the needs of his chosen system. This allowed him to envision the skills his players needed and go and look for players who had those skills. He didn't need analytics to do that. He and his old school guys used BOTH new and old methods to do the best they could.
Phil used an "All of the above approach" rather than rely mostly on Analytics.

CrushAlot
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11/18/2015  6:15 PM
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:
bigbasketballs wrote:
mreinman wrote:wow! casual NBA fans really hate the geeks.

I love analytics and advanced stats. I applaud thinking out of the box. I appreciate experimentation.

My criticism isn't a blanket condemnation of any of these things and is specific.

I don't think it's a viable long-term strategy even IF it begins to work. To truly compete in the NBA, you have to eventually plant your flag and give a core a few years to climb that ladder.

I don't see how that will be possible with this strategy in that city.

I don't think that philly can have any viable strategy. Its freakin philly

its a joke because they have made it a joke.

the Knicks added a bunch of guy who play like pros. The 76rs avoided bringing in anyone who can help them win games.

As for the stat geeks the old one's still win games. As in the team that turns it over less, rebounds the most, hits their FTs and eventually outscore their opponents. The best point of the analytics Ive heard was using those numbers to convince an owner that a player is worth money beyong traditional stats. Like Lopez for that matter. His #s scream backup, but his advanced stats say his impact his higher than his production.

Great teams are built with soldiers and leaders. Not stat models. I enjoy the story they often tell... the +/- numbers, the advanced stats... I like them all. This "new NBA" isnt anything new at all. There is only one real change I see and if anyone should get credit it probably Mike DAntoni. Rather that playing "traditional" lineups you play your best guys. Better to play a 6'6 guy at PF who is more talented than a 6'10 guy. Aside from that what has changed? More 3's? Golden State is built on the best shooting backcourt probably of all time, not a stat model.

Great post. It will be interesting to see how long Hinkie is given. One thing he is good at is keeping the payroll down.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
mreinman
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11/18/2015  6:16 PM
nixluva wrote:I said it before and it still holds, Hinkie still has to show he can build a team. What Phil got criticized for by all the young Metrics guys is his reliance on good ole BBall Principles. Phil wasn't saying Analytics doesn't play a role but he also made sure that good ole fashioned BBall Widsom was used in vetting the players he brought in. Phil and his staff did their due diligence in terms of not just talent but the mental makeup of the players and their fit for Phil's style of basketball.

Phil went into this summer with crystal clear roles he wanted filled. He actually KNOWS how to construct a team based on his experience and the needs of his chosen system. This allowed him to envision the skills his players needed and go and look for players who had those skills. He didn't need analytics to do that. He and his old school guys used BOTH new and old methods to do the best they could.
Phil used an "All of the above approach" rather than rely mostly on Analytics.

He really needs to rely more on analytics and stop letting us take so many mid range shots. He is way too reliant on offensive rebounds to save our azzes from a lot of inefficient offense.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Hinkie's Sixers: Bad Plan, Bad Execution, or both?

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