by virtue of looking at the win shares of the new free agents we have and adding those win shares to the 17 wins of last season
robin lopez is good for about 3.5 wins
kyle o'quinn is good for about 2.0 wins
d. williams is good for about 2.0 wins
arron afflalo is good for about 2.5 wins
factor in the number of win shares of the players these guys are replacing and i think the knicks can add around 8 games to their totla of 17 last season.
so we should expect at minimum 25 wins-- without even considering melo, kp, grant
a healthy melo will give you another 6 wins, conservatively.
31 wins.
grant and porzingis together will give a minimum of 3 wins.
34 wins is the most likely number based on this line of reasoning-- and this is leaving out the possibility of chemistry, fit, synergy.
if they achieve synergy of some sort you can add another 4-7 wins to that number 34.
if all goes well they win 38-41 games this season.
knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%