NardDogNation wrote:fwk00 wrote:NardDogNation wrote:Knixkik wrote:There are still franchise potential guys available at 4. You don't trade down to minimize your chance at a franchise talent. We are desperate for a franchise changing player (who can eventually take over for Melo).
How can you rile against the "starphuch" but then endorse the same concept in the draft? Better to trade down, especially given the Knicks drafting history, than risk drafting a bust. After all, there have been several stars drafted in recent years that have not been taken in the top 4 e.g. Stephen Curry (8th), Klay Thompson (11th), Paul George (11th), Rudy Gobert (26th), Jimmy Butler (30th), Nikola Mirotic (24th-ish), Nikola Vucevic (16th), etc. I think it's best to try and maximize our ability to find this type of player than to put all our eggs into one basket.
Take a deep breath. Very good NBA players get drafted all over the draft rankings but a LOT of luck and sometimes visionary scouting goes into that. Everybody can point to the lonely handful who do make it of the hundreds of good players who never make it. Statistically (and I know this is a hard thing for some to wrap their heads around) say that your chances at the very front of the draft to get a very good player are far and better than picking after say #5 AND the odds slide dramatically down the higher that draft number.
This is NOT about star-phukking at all. This is is just playing the odds. Now, if your argument is, "Who needs a superstar" there's a problem with your logic that nobody here can fix. This is all contingent on taking BPA. Drafting low for need is another really bad idea almost guaranteed to backfire from pressure, expectation, and more pressure.
To say "better trade down" is a bad idea - a really bad idea unless you are getting guaranteed a very desirable by-product. That's not to say we can't trade down. I'm sure we can. But it is not "better" in any sense of the word. It adds considerable risk.
I don't know why advocating filling the roster with tweeners is such a meme here. We do not have a wide open roster. We are solid in the backcourt, we have Melo and some great role players. If we land Carroll or Butler or Middleton, all things being equal we are playoff bound. This is not a bad team given the resources at our disposal.
Panic selling is just unwarranted.
Tone down the patronizing talk buttercup. The reality of this draft is that there are only 3 guys that will be perennial all-stars. The rest, is a virtual crap shoot as is the case for a significant portion of the first round in any draft. Just to completely **** on your point, let's examine the top 4 picks in the last few drafts and then compare their success to players selected later on.....
The 2013 top 4 picks were Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter and Cody Zeller. Of this group, there is only one certifiable starter in the bunch and I'd be genuinely surprised if he (Oladipo) became anything more than a small cog in a much larger machine. Now, are those 4 any better than Michael Carter Williams (11th), Giannias Antetokounmpo (15th), Gorgui Dieng (21st) or Rudy Gobert (27th)?
The top 4 picks in 2012 were Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Bradley Beal and Dion Waiters. The Hornets/Pelicans got the surefire talent in Davis and some would agree that Beal is a superior talent in his own right. But is Kidd Gilchrist and Waiters anything better than Damien Lillard (6th), Andre Drummond (9th) or John Henson (11th)?
The top 4 picks in 2011 were Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Enes Kanter and Tristan Thompson. The Cavs got the surefire talent in Irving but is Williams, Kanter and Thompson any better than Klay Thompson (11th), Kawhi Leonard (15th), Nikola Vucevic (16th), Nikola Mirotic (24th), Jimmy Butler (30th) or Isiah Thomas (60th)?
On and on this general trend goes of there being several players selected in the late lottery and teens being the toast of the draft instead of their more heralded collegiate contemporaries. So if we find a team willing to trade up and surrender decent assets to move up in the draft, why not indulge them? Needless to say, we should be actively seeking this kind of scenario because it minimizes the risk of us picking this draft's Eric Griffin and can maximize our ability to find its Richard Jefferson and Jason Collins.
If you think I'm patronizing you then you must not think much of yourself, Fearless Fly.
The fact of the matter is that it typically takes five (count 'em) years for a point guard to become dependable starting material and sometimes a "star". Similar statistics exist for big men. So that's fallacy #1 about your rebuttals.
Secondly, Just because you're allergic to facts and your friends are allergic to facts doesn't mean Phil will be allergic to facts. The lottery is and always has been a crap shoot (and of the worst kind). You mention (as did I, btw) that there are outliers in every draft - you mention 4. Four. Name the rest of those picks that we could have had - had we had 10 first-rounders.
Nobody knows and no one is a guarantee. But to succeed, you need to minimize risk, take a leap on recognized talent, and hope the stars align.
But your argument is based largely on the idiotic Philadelphia model. Draft 'em all! There's bound to be talent somewhere there. The shotgun approach is moronic. Teams have 15 spots to fill. You can only play nine or ten guys AND picks are guaranteed money. What makes taking 5 players better than taking one or two?
The Clippers played that hand out for a decade, name the "stars". Show me the record that made that worthwhile.
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Fallacy #3 I keep hearing about these gem picks late in the draft who you and others all want.
Yet mention Gallo, Aldrich, Shved, Amundson, and a few others around here and they are treated like chopped liver. These are the guys who make NY teams great. Phl's formula is the same formula the Phil Simms Giants used, The 70's Yankees used and so on. Munson and Rivers and Cater and Swoboda were all mutts. Simms a wannabe. It was Camby and Sprewell - two more mutts who made the Knicks fun last.
Phil has got his stuff together and this is what the beginning of the train ride to a ring looks like - implausible pieces that come together as historic teams. These rides start slow and before you know it you miss the train.
Take a break from being so cynical so as not to miss the ride. This year will be dramatically different from last.
Finally, I don't patronize anyone. I'm not some jack-ass homer who cares a whit about what anyone thinks. I LIKE what's happening here. Isola and the rest of those A-holes can take the next trip to Mars and I won't miss them.
6/2/2015 6:58 PM