Splat wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Splat wrote:Most of the players in bold are going to skew the salary of this squad too soon.

But the list is mostly not going to happen anyway.

The only ones who may be affordable are Asik, Ajinca or Green.

Matthews isn't worth the risk.

Aldridge isn't going to come here.

Love is a disaster with Melo.

Chicago probably doesn't let Butler walk if they can keep him.

Millsap, Monroe and Lopez all have usefulness, but they will be expensive and not necessarily good values this early. I'd go for Millsap of the three if there were a choice.

Asik and maybe Ajinca look like the best choices on the list for the club at this juncture as their value would be greater in tandem with Melo than most of the others at a cheaper price.

I wonder what Mathews will cost now

I don't know. Maybe he'll get $20M for 3 years instead of $50M for 4 years. Is that worth the risk? I don't know, but a snapped achilles heel gives me the heebie jeebies so I wouldn't do it.

we are gonna need to take some risks. I think that I would pay 3 x 20

mreinman wrote:

Splat wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Splat wrote:Most of the players in bold are going to skew the salary of this squad too soon.

But the list is mostly not going to happen anyway.

The only ones who may be affordable are Asik, Ajinca or Green.

Matthews isn't worth the risk.

Aldridge isn't going to come here.

Love is a disaster with Melo.

Chicago probably doesn't let Butler walk if they can keep him.

Millsap, Monroe and Lopez all have usefulness, but they will be expensive and not necessarily good values this early. I'd go for Millsap of the three if there were a choice.

Asik and maybe Ajinca look like the best choices on the list for the club at this juncture as their value would be greater in tandem with Melo than most of the others at a cheaper price.

I wonder what Mathews will cost now

I don't know. Maybe he'll get $20M for 3 years instead of $50M for 4 years. Is that worth the risk? I don't know, but a snapped achilles heel gives me the heebie jeebies so I wouldn't do it.

we are gonna need to take some risks. I think that I would pay 3 x 20

That kind of risk taking is more in line with trying to overnight the roster ASAP while Melo is still viable. In which case, you're rolling the dice and then you could say maybe that justifies signing Matthews, because if he pans out you've just upgraded at a very good price. But if he is a gimp, then you're kind of fukked again.

I'm still staying in the game out of curiosity as to which mindset will be at work this off-season. I'm advocating longer term thinking, but I suspect it will be more along the lines of trying to buy a club ASAP. That could get you into the playoffs, but without depth it wouldn't produce a contender.

Splat wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Splat wrote:BTW, Calderon is likely shut down for the season. Achilles fear.

all the more reason to trade him for jimmy butler, this way chicago can stretch provision him.

and you think this is an actual possibility?

of course ... STRETCH PROVISION! Everyone wants calderon so that they can STRETCH PROVISION HIM, no?

If we can catch a break and draft OK4, Towns, Russell or Mudiay that would be a huge boost to the off season efforts to remake the roster. Phil needs to go after the best players at the best price and then fill in the roster from there with quality players. IMO at least 2 of the players on this list would make a huge improvement to the roster. There are of course other players lower on the list that would be good additions.

Hollinger Stats - Estimated Wins Added
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
2	Jimmy Butler, CHI	55	38.9	.582	14.7	6.7	20.6	5.1	11.3	8.3	21.30	345.1	11.5
8	Goran Dragic, MIA/PHX	62	33.3	.578	20.5	10.7	21.6	3.3	8.4	5.9	17.31	209.9	7.0
9	Wesley Matthews, POR	60	33.7	.586	13.4	7.8	18.6	2.1	9.5	5.9	16.14	170.5	5.7
        Danny Green, SA	        63	29.4	.590	13.7	9.0	16.3	2.9	14.4	8.7	16.53	166.6	5.6
13	Khris Middleton, MIL	63	29.0	.573	14.2	8.9	18.3	2.4	15.1	8.9	16.35	159.5	5.3

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
3       LaMarcus Aldridge, POR	56	36.0	.521	6.7	7.1	27.4	8.0	22.8	15.6	22.13	319.9	10.7
6	Greg Monroe, DET	64	31.1	.548	10.8	11.9	22.7	11.2	25.7	18.1	21.13	286.2	9.5
8	Paul Millsap, ATL	63	33.1	.566	14.7	11.7	22.1	6.7	20.1	13.6	19.90	261.6	8.7
9	Kevin Love, CLE	        64	34.4	.560	12.3	8.2	20.5	6.6	26.7	16.8	19.34	257.6	8.6
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
25      Omer Asik, NO	        61	26.1	.550	10.1	14.6	12.8	13.7	29.5	21.6	15.48	116.1	3.9
27	Alexis Ajinca, NO	51	14.0	.623	8.9	13.9	19.4	12.6	25.5	19.1	21.24	113.5	3.8
28	Robin Lopez, POR	40	28.4	.566	9.1	11.3	14.6	13.1	13.3	13.2	16.63	102.1	3.4
Other players to be considered:
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
76	Tristan Thompson, CLE	68	27.6	.581	5.2	11.4	12.9	15.0	18.3	16.7	15.81	146.0	4.9
96	DeMarre Carroll, ATL	57	30.8	.594	12.2	7.4	14.7	5.1	13.1	9.3	14.97	117.0	3.9
        Jeremy Lin, LAL	        64	25.7	.544	27.7	13.1	21.4	1.3	10.1	5.5	15.75	116.3	3.9
107	Brandon Bass, BOS	65	23.0	.543	10.6	8.5	18.6	7.7	15.4	11.5	16.19	104.7	3.5
118     Amir Johnson, TOR	63	26.5	.603	13.5	13.5	14.7	9.2	16.3	12.7	15.34	95.8	3.2
126     Patrick Patterson, TOR	65	26.4	.573	18.7	6.4	12.7	7.2	16.5	11.8	15.01	89.8	3.0
129     Cory Joseph, SA	        62	20.2	.570	25.2	9.1	16.8	3.5	10.4	7.0	15.62	86.3	2.9
165	Lavoy Allen, IND	48	19.5	.513	16.8	8.6	14.3	13.0	20.4	16.8	16.02	63.2	2.1
188	Jonas Jerebko, BOS/DET	58	15.7	.575	14.8	8.9	15.3	7.2	15.3	11.1	14.97	47.2	1.6

On our current roster we have very few players who are above Zero EWA at this time in their career. It's no wonder we can't win games.

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
37	Carmelo Anthony, NY	40	35.7	.531	10.9	7.9	30.0	5.6	16.0	10.7	21.77	240.2	8.0
136	Alexey Shved, HOU/NY/PHI38	16.7	.539	19.1	8.5	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.54	81.1	2.7
148	Cole Aldrich, NY	48	16.1	.495	15.4	12.8	16.8	11.9	26.9	19.1	16.81	71.6	2.4
201	Andrea Bargnani, NY	17	25.9	.534	10.2	8.3	24.1	4.6	13.5	8.9	16.88	41.2	1.4
205	Tim Hardaway Jr., NY	63	23.5	.509	12.5	7.8	22.3	0.8	10.4	5.5	12.26	38.9	1.3
233	Langston Galloway, NY	29	30.0	.492	19.7	8.0	18.0	3.7	13.2	8.3	12.48	19.2	0.6
251	Quincy Acy, NY	        53	19.1	.524	13.6	12.8	13.9	7.3	20.4	13.6	11.10	9.1	0.3
        Jose Calderon, NY	42	30.2	.519	30.9	11.7	16.5	1.7	9.9	5.6	11.44	8.3	0.3
262	Jason Smith, NY	        66	21.2	.493	15.2	10.8	18.5	6.5	14.3	10.3	11.76	5.4	0.2

mreinman wrote:I never heard of EWA ... how come you not using the more common/accepted metrics like Win Shares?

All metrics have their strengths and purposes. I think no one metric is the end all be all but usually the better players will show up on most good metrics as that is the point of the entire exercise. It's not like some scrub will just pop up and fool the system. These things have been worked on for years in order to limit that kind of thing from happening.

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.

I've updated the list with a few more names. In all the point is to look for players who grade out as having a net positive impact.

Hollinger Stats - Estimated Wins Added
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
2	Jimmy Butler, CHI	55	38.9	.582	14.7	6.7	20.6	5.1	11.3	8.3	21.30	345.1	11.5
8	Goran Dragic, MIA/PHX	62	33.3	.578	20.5	10.7	21.6	3.3	8.4	5.9	17.31	209.9	7.0
9	Wesley Matthews, POR	60	33.7	.586	13.4	7.8	18.6	2.1	9.5	5.9	16.14	170.5	5.7
        Danny Green, SA	        63	29.4	.590	13.7	9.0	16.3	2.9	14.4	8.7	16.53	166.6	5.6
13	Khris Middleton, MIL	63	29.0	.573	14.2	8.9	18.3	2.4	15.1	8.9	16.35	159.5	5.3

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
3       LaMarcus Aldridge, POR	56	36.0	.521	6.7	7.1	27.4	8.0	22.8	15.6	22.13	319.9	10.7
6	Greg Monroe, DET	64	31.1	.548	10.8	11.9	22.7	11.2	25.7	18.1	21.13	286.2	9.5
8	Paul Millsap, ATL	63	33.1	.566	14.7	11.7	22.1	6.7	20.1	13.6	19.90	261.6	8.7
9	Kevin Love, CLE	        64	34.4	.560	12.3	8.2	20.5	6.6	26.7	16.8	19.34	257.6	8.6
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
25      Omer Asik, NO	        61	26.1	.550	10.1	14.6	12.8	13.7	29.5	21.6	15.48	116.1	3.9
27	Alexis Ajinca, NO	51	14.0	.623	8.9	13.9	19.4	12.6	25.5	19.1	21.24	113.5	3.8
28	Robin Lopez, POR	40	28.4	.566	9.1	11.3	14.6	13.1	13.3	13.2	16.63	102.1	3.4
Other players to be considered:
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
76	Tristan Thompson, CLE	68	27.6	.581	5.2	11.4	12.9	15.0	18.3	16.7	15.81	146.0	4.9
96	DeMarre Carroll, ATL	57	30.8	.594	12.2	7.4	14.7	5.1	13.1	9.3	14.97	117.0	3.9
        Jeremy Lin, LAL	        64	25.7	.544	27.7	13.1	21.4	1.3	10.1	5.5	15.75	116.3	3.9
107	Brandon Bass, BOS	65	23.0	.543	10.6	8.5	18.6	7.7	15.4	11.5	16.19	104.7	3.5
118     Amir Johnson, TOR	63	26.5	.603	13.5	13.5	14.7	9.2	16.3	12.7	15.34	95.8	3.2
126     Patrick Patterson, TOR	65	26.4	.573	18.7	6.4	12.7	7.2	16.5	11.8	15.01	89.8	3.0
129     Cory Joseph, SA	        62	20.2	.570	25.2	9.1	16.8	3.5	10.4	7.0	15.62	86.3	2.9
165	Lavoy Allen, IND	48	19.5	.513	16.8	8.6	14.3	13.0	20.4	16.8	16.02	63.2	2.1
188	Jonas Jerebko, BOS/DET	58	15.7	.575	14.8	8.9	15.3	7.2	15.3	11.1	14.97	47.2	1.6
205	Kevin Seraphin, WSH	63	15.5	.549	9.3	15.5	19.9	9.0	17.2	13.2	13.29	39.2	1.3

On our current roster we have very few players who are above Zero EWA at this time in their career. It's no wonder we can't win games.

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
37	Carmelo Anthony, NY	40	35.7	.531	10.9	7.9	30.0	5.6	16.0	10.7	21.77	240.2	8.0
136	Alexey Shved, HOU/NY/PHI38	16.7	.539	19.1	8.5	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.54	81.1	2.7
148	Cole Aldrich, NY	48	16.1	.495	15.4	12.8	16.8	11.9	26.9	19.1	16.81	71.6	2.4
201	Andrea Bargnani, NY	17	25.9	.534	10.2	8.3	24.1	4.6	13.5	8.9	16.88	41.2	1.4
205	Tim Hardaway Jr., NY	63	23.5	.509	12.5	7.8	22.3	0.8	10.4	5.5	12.26	38.9	1.3
233	Langston Galloway, NY	29	30.0	.492	19.7	8.0	18.0	3.7	13.2	8.3	12.48	19.2	0.6
251	Quincy Acy, NY	        53	19.1	.524	13.6	12.8	13.9	7.3	20.4	13.6	11.10	9.1	0.3
        Jose Calderon, NY	42	30.2	.519	30.9	11.7	16.5	1.7	9.9	5.6	11.44	8.3	0.3
262	Jason Smith, NY	        66	21.2	.493	15.2	10.8	18.5	6.5	14.3	10.3	11.76	5.4	0.2

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:I never heard of EWA ... how come you not using the more common/accepted metrics like Win Shares?

All metrics have their strengths and purposes. I think no one metric is the end all be all but usually the better players will show up on most good metrics as that is the point of the entire exercise. It's not like some scrub will just pop up and fool the system. These things have been worked on for years in order to limit that kind of thing from happening.

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.

I've updated the list with a few more names. In all the point is to look for players who grade out as having a net positive impact.

Hollinger Stats - Estimated Wins Added
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
2	Jimmy Butler, CHI	55	38.9	.582	14.7	6.7	20.6	5.1	11.3	8.3	21.30	345.1	11.5
8	Goran Dragic, MIA/PHX	62	33.3	.578	20.5	10.7	21.6	3.3	8.4	5.9	17.31	209.9	7.0
9	Wesley Matthews, POR	60	33.7	.586	13.4	7.8	18.6	2.1	9.5	5.9	16.14	170.5	5.7
        Danny Green, SA	        63	29.4	.590	13.7	9.0	16.3	2.9	14.4	8.7	16.53	166.6	5.6
13	Khris Middleton, MIL	63	29.0	.573	14.2	8.9	18.3	2.4	15.1	8.9	16.35	159.5	5.3

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
3       LaMarcus Aldridge, POR	56	36.0	.521	6.7	7.1	27.4	8.0	22.8	15.6	22.13	319.9	10.7
6	Greg Monroe, DET	64	31.1	.548	10.8	11.9	22.7	11.2	25.7	18.1	21.13	286.2	9.5
8	Paul Millsap, ATL	63	33.1	.566	14.7	11.7	22.1	6.7	20.1	13.6	19.90	261.6	8.7
9	Kevin Love, CLE	        64	34.4	.560	12.3	8.2	20.5	6.6	26.7	16.8	19.34	257.6	8.6
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
25      Omer Asik, NO	        61	26.1	.550	10.1	14.6	12.8	13.7	29.5	21.6	15.48	116.1	3.9
27	Alexis Ajinca, NO	51	14.0	.623	8.9	13.9	19.4	12.6	25.5	19.1	21.24	113.5	3.8
28	Robin Lopez, POR	40	28.4	.566	9.1	11.3	14.6	13.1	13.3	13.2	16.63	102.1	3.4
Other players to be considered:
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
76	Tristan Thompson, CLE	68	27.6	.581	5.2	11.4	12.9	15.0	18.3	16.7	15.81	146.0	4.9
96	DeMarre Carroll, ATL	57	30.8	.594	12.2	7.4	14.7	5.1	13.1	9.3	14.97	117.0	3.9
        Jeremy Lin, LAL	        64	25.7	.544	27.7	13.1	21.4	1.3	10.1	5.5	15.75	116.3	3.9
107	Brandon Bass, BOS	65	23.0	.543	10.6	8.5	18.6	7.7	15.4	11.5	16.19	104.7	3.5
118     Amir Johnson, TOR	63	26.5	.603	13.5	13.5	14.7	9.2	16.3	12.7	15.34	95.8	3.2
126     Patrick Patterson, TOR	65	26.4	.573	18.7	6.4	12.7	7.2	16.5	11.8	15.01	89.8	3.0
129     Cory Joseph, SA	        62	20.2	.570	25.2	9.1	16.8	3.5	10.4	7.0	15.62	86.3	2.9
165	Lavoy Allen, IND	48	19.5	.513	16.8	8.6	14.3	13.0	20.4	16.8	16.02	63.2	2.1
188	Jonas Jerebko, BOS/DET	58	15.7	.575	14.8	8.9	15.3	7.2	15.3	11.1	14.97	47.2	1.6
205	Kevin Seraphin, WSH	63	15.5	.549	9.3	15.5	19.9	9.0	17.2	13.2	13.29	39.2	1.3

On our current roster we have very few players who are above Zero EWA at this time in their career. It's no wonder we can't win games.

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
37	Carmelo Anthony, NY	40	35.7	.531	10.9	7.9	30.0	5.6	16.0	10.7	21.77	240.2	8.0
136	Alexey Shved, HOU/NY/PHI38	16.7	.539	19.1	8.5	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.54	81.1	2.7
148	Cole Aldrich, NY	48	16.1	.495	15.4	12.8	16.8	11.9	26.9	19.1	16.81	71.6	2.4
201	Andrea Bargnani, NY	17	25.9	.534	10.2	8.3	24.1	4.6	13.5	8.9	16.88	41.2	1.4
205	Tim Hardaway Jr., NY	63	23.5	.509	12.5	7.8	22.3	0.8	10.4	5.5	12.26	38.9	1.3
233	Langston Galloway, NY	29	30.0	.492	19.7	8.0	18.0	3.7	13.2	8.3	12.48	19.2	0.6
251	Quincy Acy, NY	        53	19.1	.524	13.6	12.8	13.9	7.3	20.4	13.6	11.10	9.1	0.3
        Jose Calderon, NY	42	30.2	.519	30.9	11.7	16.5	1.7	9.9	5.6	11.44	8.3	0.3
262	Jason Smith, NY	        66	21.2	.493	15.2	10.8	18.5	6.5	14.3	10.3	11.76	5.4	0.2

thats fine ... just was curious why you chose a stat that is not commonly discussed ... it may be good, I have never looked at it.

is there a reason why you chose it?

Do you not use Basketball-Reference?

I use EVERYTHING. If you've seen any of my posts you'll see that I use Basketball Reference and lots of other resources. In the end the top players almost always end up in the same relative spots at the top. For me it's clear that for this team to make substantial improvement next season Phil should not mess around and go after not just the top names but as many really productive players as he can get. That's what my list is about. Players who are impactful and when you put enough of them together you should see some increase in wins. You won't see a Josh Smith.

We need a new starting lineup that has impact players. I think it would be a waste to go after players who won't move the needle just cuz they'd be cheap. IMO it would be worth the money spent if you can add a few players at the top of this list for each position. I'm less in favor of the older guys cuz they are in a higher price bracket and have less years of their prime left. I think the smart move is for Phil to go after the young Vets in the 6 years or less range.

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:I never heard of EWA ... how come you not using the more common/accepted metrics like Win Shares?

All metrics have their strengths and purposes. I think no one metric is the end all be all but usually the better players will show up on most good metrics as that is the point of the entire exercise. It's not like some scrub will just pop up and fool the system. These things have been worked on for years in order to limit that kind of thing from happening.

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.

I've updated the list with a few more names. In all the point is to look for players who grade out as having a net positive impact.

Hollinger Stats - Estimated Wins Added
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
2	Jimmy Butler, CHI	55	38.9	.582	14.7	6.7	20.6	5.1	11.3	8.3	21.30	345.1	11.5
8	Goran Dragic, MIA/PHX	62	33.3	.578	20.5	10.7	21.6	3.3	8.4	5.9	17.31	209.9	7.0
9	Wesley Matthews, POR	60	33.7	.586	13.4	7.8	18.6	2.1	9.5	5.9	16.14	170.5	5.7
        Danny Green, SA	        63	29.4	.590	13.7	9.0	16.3	2.9	14.4	8.7	16.53	166.6	5.6
13	Khris Middleton, MIL	63	29.0	.573	14.2	8.9	18.3	2.4	15.1	8.9	16.35	159.5	5.3

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
3       LaMarcus Aldridge, POR	56	36.0	.521	6.7	7.1	27.4	8.0	22.8	15.6	22.13	319.9	10.7
6	Greg Monroe, DET	64	31.1	.548	10.8	11.9	22.7	11.2	25.7	18.1	21.13	286.2	9.5
8	Paul Millsap, ATL	63	33.1	.566	14.7	11.7	22.1	6.7	20.1	13.6	19.90	261.6	8.7
9	Kevin Love, CLE	        64	34.4	.560	12.3	8.2	20.5	6.6	26.7	16.8	19.34	257.6	8.6
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
25      Omer Asik, NO	        61	26.1	.550	10.1	14.6	12.8	13.7	29.5	21.6	15.48	116.1	3.9
27	Alexis Ajinca, NO	51	14.0	.623	8.9	13.9	19.4	12.6	25.5	19.1	21.24	113.5	3.8
28	Robin Lopez, POR	40	28.4	.566	9.1	11.3	14.6	13.1	13.3	13.2	16.63	102.1	3.4
Other players to be considered:
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
76	Tristan Thompson, CLE	68	27.6	.581	5.2	11.4	12.9	15.0	18.3	16.7	15.81	146.0	4.9
96	DeMarre Carroll, ATL	57	30.8	.594	12.2	7.4	14.7	5.1	13.1	9.3	14.97	117.0	3.9
        Jeremy Lin, LAL	        64	25.7	.544	27.7	13.1	21.4	1.3	10.1	5.5	15.75	116.3	3.9
107	Brandon Bass, BOS	65	23.0	.543	10.6	8.5	18.6	7.7	15.4	11.5	16.19	104.7	3.5
118     Amir Johnson, TOR	63	26.5	.603	13.5	13.5	14.7	9.2	16.3	12.7	15.34	95.8	3.2
126     Patrick Patterson, TOR	65	26.4	.573	18.7	6.4	12.7	7.2	16.5	11.8	15.01	89.8	3.0
129     Cory Joseph, SA	        62	20.2	.570	25.2	9.1	16.8	3.5	10.4	7.0	15.62	86.3	2.9
165	Lavoy Allen, IND	48	19.5	.513	16.8	8.6	14.3	13.0	20.4	16.8	16.02	63.2	2.1
188	Jonas Jerebko, BOS/DET	58	15.7	.575	14.8	8.9	15.3	7.2	15.3	11.1	14.97	47.2	1.6
205	Kevin Seraphin, WSH	63	15.5	.549	9.3	15.5	19.9	9.0	17.2	13.2	13.29	39.2	1.3

On our current roster we have very few players who are above Zero EWA at this time in their career. It's no wonder we can't win games.

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
37	Carmelo Anthony, NY	40	35.7	.531	10.9	7.9	30.0	5.6	16.0	10.7	21.77	240.2	8.0
136	Alexey Shved, HOU/NY/PHI38	16.7	.539	19.1	8.5	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.54	81.1	2.7
148	Cole Aldrich, NY	48	16.1	.495	15.4	12.8	16.8	11.9	26.9	19.1	16.81	71.6	2.4
201	Andrea Bargnani, NY	17	25.9	.534	10.2	8.3	24.1	4.6	13.5	8.9	16.88	41.2	1.4
205	Tim Hardaway Jr., NY	63	23.5	.509	12.5	7.8	22.3	0.8	10.4	5.5	12.26	38.9	1.3
233	Langston Galloway, NY	29	30.0	.492	19.7	8.0	18.0	3.7	13.2	8.3	12.48	19.2	0.6
251	Quincy Acy, NY	        53	19.1	.524	13.6	12.8	13.9	7.3	20.4	13.6	11.10	9.1	0.3
        Jose Calderon, NY	42	30.2	.519	30.9	11.7	16.5	1.7	9.9	5.6	11.44	8.3	0.3
262	Jason Smith, NY	        66	21.2	.493	15.2	10.8	18.5	6.5	14.3	10.3	11.76	5.4	0.2

thats fine ... just was curious why you chose a stat that is not commonly discussed ... it may be good, I have never looked at it.

is there a reason why you chose it?

Do you not use Basketball-Reference?

I use EVERYTHING. If you've seen any of my posts you'll see that I use Basketball Reference and lots of other resources. In the end the top players almost always end up in the same relative spots at the top. For me it's clear that for this team to make substantial improvement next season Phil should not mess around and go after not just the top names but as many really productive players as he can get. That's what my list is about. Players who are impactful and when you put enough of them together you should see some increase in wins. You won't see a Josh Smith.

We need a new starting lineup that has impact players. I think it would be a waste to go after players who won't move the needle just cuz they'd be cheap. IMO it would be worth the money spent if you can add a few players at the top of this list for each position. I'm less in favor of the older guys cuz they are in a higher price bracket and have less years of their prime left. I think the smart move is for Phil to go after the young Vets in the 6 years or less range.

do you look at win shares? its pretty telling ... I think that is one of the most used / respected stats.

I would go after lower usage high TS and high WS48 guys who are good defenders.

knickscity wrote:Players excel primarily because of the other players they are paired with on teams. Thats the fallacy of such metric's....it credits players individually for things that teams do collectively. Place Quincy Acy on the Rockets and he'd certainly have a better EWA. Place Jimmy Butler on this squad and he's not winning this team 11 games.

Just curious though, why is any said player being compared to the 12th man?

Bold ^ is why win share on free agents coming here is not the most dependable statistic. A good front office puts the right combination of players together and that takes common sense, not just data. If they land OK4, they are almost certain to go for the best defensive forward they can find. One step leads to the next step which is why board extrapolations about scenarios are so tenuous in the first place. The domino effect of each move reorders the decision tree that follows.

nixluva wrote:

Splat wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:I never heard of EWA ... how come you not using the more common/accepted metrics like Win Shares?

All metrics have their strengths and purposes. I think no one metric is the end all be all but usually the better players will show up on most good metrics as that is the point of the entire exercise. It's not like some scrub will just pop up and fool the system. These things have been worked on for years in order to limit that kind of thing from happening.

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.

I've updated the list with a few more names. In all the point is to look for players who grade out as having a net positive impact.

Hollinger Stats - Estimated Wins Added
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
2	Jimmy Butler, CHI	55	38.9	.582	14.7	6.7	20.6	5.1	11.3	8.3	21.30	345.1	11.5
8	Goran Dragic, MIA/PHX	62	33.3	.578	20.5	10.7	21.6	3.3	8.4	5.9	17.31	209.9	7.0
9	Wesley Matthews, POR	60	33.7	.586	13.4	7.8	18.6	2.1	9.5	5.9	16.14	170.5	5.7
        Danny Green, SA	        63	29.4	.590	13.7	9.0	16.3	2.9	14.4	8.7	16.53	166.6	5.6
13	Khris Middleton, MIL	63	29.0	.573	14.2	8.9	18.3	2.4	15.1	8.9	16.35	159.5	5.3

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
3       LaMarcus Aldridge, POR	56	36.0	.521	6.7	7.1	27.4	8.0	22.8	15.6	22.13	319.9	10.7
6	Greg Monroe, DET	64	31.1	.548	10.8	11.9	22.7	11.2	25.7	18.1	21.13	286.2	9.5
8	Paul Millsap, ATL	63	33.1	.566	14.7	11.7	22.1	6.7	20.1	13.6	19.90	261.6	8.7
9	Kevin Love, CLE	        64	34.4	.560	12.3	8.2	20.5	6.6	26.7	16.8	19.34	257.6	8.6
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
25      Omer Asik, NO	        61	26.1	.550	10.1	14.6	12.8	13.7	29.5	21.6	15.48	116.1	3.9
27	Alexis Ajinca, NO	51	14.0	.623	8.9	13.9	19.4	12.6	25.5	19.1	21.24	113.5	3.8
28	Robin Lopez, POR	40	28.4	.566	9.1	11.3	14.6	13.1	13.3	13.2	16.63	102.1	3.4
Other players to be considered:
RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
76	Tristan Thompson, CLE	68	27.6	.581	5.2	11.4	12.9	15.0	18.3	16.7	15.81	146.0	4.9
96	DeMarre Carroll, ATL	57	30.8	.594	12.2	7.4	14.7	5.1	13.1	9.3	14.97	117.0	3.9
        Jeremy Lin, LAL	        64	25.7	.544	27.7	13.1	21.4	1.3	10.1	5.5	15.75	116.3	3.9
107	Brandon Bass, BOS	65	23.0	.543	10.6	8.5	18.6	7.7	15.4	11.5	16.19	104.7	3.5
118     Amir Johnson, TOR	63	26.5	.603	13.5	13.5	14.7	9.2	16.3	12.7	15.34	95.8	3.2
126     Patrick Patterson, TOR	65	26.4	.573	18.7	6.4	12.7	7.2	16.5	11.8	15.01	89.8	3.0
129     Cory Joseph, SA	        62	20.2	.570	25.2	9.1	16.8	3.5	10.4	7.0	15.62	86.3	2.9
165	Lavoy Allen, IND	48	19.5	.513	16.8	8.6	14.3	13.0	20.4	16.8	16.02	63.2	2.1
188	Jonas Jerebko, BOS/DET	58	15.7	.575	14.8	8.9	15.3	7.2	15.3	11.1	14.97	47.2	1.6
205	Kevin Seraphin, WSH	63	15.5	.549	9.3	15.5	19.9	9.0	17.2	13.2	13.29	39.2	1.3

On our current roster we have very few players who are above Zero EWA at this time in their career. It's no wonder we can't win games.

RK	PLAYER	                GP	MPG	TS%	AST	TO	USG	ORR	DRR	REBR	PER	VA	EWA
37	Carmelo Anthony, NY	40	35.7	.531	10.9	7.9	30.0	5.6	16.0	10.7	21.77	240.2	8.0
136	Alexey Shved, HOU/NY/PHI38	16.7	.539	19.1	8.5	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.54	81.1	2.7
148	Cole Aldrich, NY	48	16.1	.495	15.4	12.8	16.8	11.9	26.9	19.1	16.81	71.6	2.4
201	Andrea Bargnani, NY	17	25.9	.534	10.2	8.3	24.1	4.6	13.5	8.9	16.88	41.2	1.4
205	Tim Hardaway Jr., NY	63	23.5	.509	12.5	7.8	22.3	0.8	10.4	5.5	12.26	38.9	1.3
233	Langston Galloway, NY	29	30.0	.492	19.7	8.0	18.0	3.7	13.2	8.3	12.48	19.2	0.6
251	Quincy Acy, NY	        53	19.1	.524	13.6	12.8	13.9	7.3	20.4	13.6	11.10	9.1	0.3
        Jose Calderon, NY	42	30.2	.519	30.9	11.7	16.5	1.7	9.9	5.6	11.44	8.3	0.3
262	Jason Smith, NY	        66	21.2	.493	15.2	10.8	18.5	6.5	14.3	10.3	11.76	5.4	0.2

thats fine ... just was curious why you chose a stat that is not commonly discussed ... it may be good, I have never looked at it.

is there a reason why you chose it?

Do you not use Basketball-Reference?

I use EVERYTHING. If you've seen any of my posts you'll see that I use Basketball Reference and lots of other resources. In the end the top players almost always end up in the same relative spots at the top. For me it's clear that for this team to make substantial improvement next season Phil should not mess around and go after not just the top names but as many really productive players as he can get. That's what my list is about. Players who are impactful and when you put enough of them together you should see some increase in wins. You won't see a Josh Smith.

We need a new starting lineup that has impact players. I think it would be a waste to go after players who won't move the needle just cuz they'd be cheap. IMO it would be worth the money spent if you can add a few players at the top of this list for each position. I'm less in favor of the older guys cuz they are in a higher price bracket and have less years of their prime left. I think the smart move is for Phil to go after the young Vets in the 6 years or less range.

Nix, there is another reason I emphasize budgetary caution. It is because I think we'll be out of the running for almost every player you potentially covet. I may be wrong, but I think it is going to be a whole lot harder to recruit the free agents you want and that leads to the probability of overpaying. Remember, this is a club that bids against itself and it can get bad when others are bidding.

So the valuations you put on players based on they will cost vs. their contribution to things like win shares may be far more expensive than you account for. And that's if they are available and I doubt most will be. It doesn't mean no one on the list will be a Knick next year, but then at what price?

This summer the max for the 6 year or less guys is going to be about $16.5 Mil. Not every one of these players will be able to get that kind of money. Still for the Knicks to add one of those players would be worth it IMO. We will have at least 2 starting slots open if you count Melo, Shved and the Draft Pick. IMO spending good money on a Danny Green and Lopez or Ajinca if we drafted OK4 or Towns would be spending the money well. You could also add a Tristan Thompson or DeMarre Carroll and I think it would be a smart use of cap.

One thing in favor of your scenario is Knicks have less competition from other teams with cap space in 2015 than may be true with new guidelines in 2016. So it really is about the right matching player, not the sexiest free agent. I admit I don't know what the 2016 free agent list is going to be so aside for Durant I'm not sure what who'd be targeting that year. Anyway, Phil bid against himself with Melo and that to me indicates a lack of sense. He can't afford to do that stuff again.