fishmike wrote:OK metrics guys...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/billuch01.html

Is there anything in his first 4-5 years that showed Billups would turn into what he did? In terms of eff%, win shares, defense.. Am I missing something? It seems the numbers start to look good when everyone started to see that was pretty obvious.

If Billups was a great metrics player which one of those stats showed he was undervalued when Det signed him?

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:OK metrics guys...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/billuch01.html

Is there anything in his first 4-5 years that showed Billups would turn into what he did? In terms of eff%, win shares, defense.. Am I missing something? It seems the numbers start to look good when everyone started to see that was pretty obvious.

If Billups was a great metrics player which one of those stats showed he was undervalued when Det signed him?

It was clear by his 5th year, and if Minn had been using the metrics we now have, they probably would have kept him for his career.
What point are you trying to make exactly? I'm pretty sure you're just trying to prove a conclusion like "the metrics being used are imperfect" that no one would disagree with anyway.

His last 2 years in Minny were upticks.

Lowry is a good example in Houston. Before metrics, people would just ignore him but the metrics were very enlightening.

The metric ignorists were still ignoring and were left behind. Now they are all blah blah ing about Lowry.

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:OK metrics guys...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/billuch01.html

Is there anything in his first 4-5 years that showed Billups would turn into what he did? In terms of eff%, win shares, defense.. Am I missing something? It seems the numbers start to look good when everyone started to see that was pretty obvious.

If Billups was a great metrics player which one of those stats showed he was undervalued when Det signed him?

It was clear by his 5th year, and if Minn had been using the metrics we now have, they probably would have kept him for his career.
What point are you trying to make exactly? I'm pretty sure you're just trying to prove a conclusion like "the metrics being used are imperfect" that no one would disagree with anyway.

His last 2 years in Minny were upticks.

Lowry is a good example in Houston. Before metrics, people would just ignore him but the metrics were very enlightening.

The metric ignorists were still ignoring and were left behind. Now they are all blah blah ing about Lowry.

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:OK metrics guys...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/billuch01.html

Is there anything in his first 4-5 years that showed Billups would turn into what he did? In terms of eff%, win shares, defense.. Am I missing something? It seems the numbers start to look good when everyone started to see that was pretty obvious.

If Billups was a great metrics player which one of those stats showed he was undervalued when Det signed him?

It was clear by his 5th year, and if Minn had been using the metrics we now have, they probably would have kept him for his career.
What point are you trying to make exactly? I'm pretty sure you're just trying to prove a conclusion like "the metrics being used are imperfect" that no one would disagree with anyway.

His last 2 years in Minny were upticks.

Lowry is a good example in Houston. Before metrics, people would just ignore him but the metrics were very enlightening.

The metric ignorists were still ignoring and were left behind. Now they are all blah blah ing about Lowry.

Not really while his shooting %s went up

They were so low in previous yrs with exception to a couple

Only his 3pt% was fairly respectable

His stats across the board fluctuated from previous seasons

Some were high and others low

The main thing that sticks out is that he was a sure starter

From his previous yrs looking at games played

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

because he's played 1/3 the total games
WS48 is adjusted for playing time. Total win shares is not.

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

because he's played 1/3 the total games
WS48 is adjusted for playing time. Total win shares is not.

ahh.. so WS is cumulative? So if he doesnt play another game his WS will stay at 5.4? Fair enough...

Yes, total win shares is an estimate of how many wins you have uniquely contributed to your team's total. WS 48 is an estimate of how many wins per game (per 48 min) you contribute. The average WS48 is .100. There are ten players on the court and each one on average is contributing one-tenth of a win. A player with a WS48 of .227 like Lowry is contributing almost a quarter of a win per game even though he's only one of the ten players on the court. Then, if you're WS48 is .227 and you play 10 games, you've contributed 2.27 total win shares. So that's the difference between total and per 48 #s.

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

because he's played 1/3 the total games
WS48 is adjusted for playing time. Total win shares is not.

and Lowry had a better year last year metric wise. Mainly to his 3 point %'s (attempts rate and percentage) being down

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

because he's played 1/3 the total games
WS48 is adjusted for playing time. Total win shares is not.

ahh.. so WS is cumulative? So if he doesnt play another game his WS will stay at 5.4? Fair enough...

Yes, total win shares is an estimate of how many wins you have uniquely contributed to your team's total. WS 48 is an estimate of how many wins per game (per 48 min) you contribute. The average WS48 is .100. There are ten players on the court and each one on average is contributing one-tenth of a win. A player with a WS48 of .227 like Lowry is contributing almost a quarter of a win per game even though he's only one of the ten players on the court. Then, if you're WS48 is .227 and you play 10 games, you've contributed 2.27 total win shares. So that's the difference between total and per 48 #s.

So the metrics knock on Melo is his WS48 of .160-.180 is pretty good as a Knick, but not $25mm a year good?

If I remember right, you've asked what Melo is doing differently than a few years ago when we had the 54 win team. A lot of the difference is that we don't have the good supporting cast we had then. But you can see a decline in WS48 from .184 to .101. That decline is probably due to lower scoring efficiency (which is from a decline in 3s and FTs) and a significant decline in his defensive #s.

How is that # derived? Looking at Melo the difference between last year and the year before is minimal, yet one team won 37 vs. 54 the year before. I think most agree Melo was a better player 2 years ago.

Sorry for the dweeb comment. #hugs

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

because he's played 1/3 the total games
WS48 is adjusted for playing time. Total win shares is not.

ahh.. so WS is cumulative? So if he doesnt play another game his WS will stay at 5.4? Fair enough...

Yes, total win shares is an estimate of how many wins you have uniquely contributed to your team's total. WS 48 is an estimate of how many wins per game (per 48 min) you contribute. The average WS48 is .100. There are ten players on the court and each one on average is contributing one-tenth of a win. A player with a WS48 of .227 like Lowry is contributing almost a quarter of a win per game even though he's only one of the ten players on the court. Then, if you're WS48 is .227 and you play 10 games, you've contributed 2.27 total win shares. So that's the difference between total and per 48 #s.

So the metrics knock on Melo is his WS48 of .160-.180 is pretty good as a Knick, but not $25mm a year good?

If I remember right, you've asked what Melo is doing differently than a few years ago when we had the 54 win team. A lot of the difference is that we don't have the good supporting cast we had then. But you can see a decline in WS48 from .184 to .101. That decline is probably due to lower scoring efficiency (which is from a decline in 3s and FTs) and a significant decline in his defensive #s.

but that pretty much was my point... that Melo is Melo but the talent level around him has really taken a nosedive.

How is that # derived? Looking at Melo the difference between last year and the year before is minimal, yet one team won 37 vs. 54 the year before. I think most agree Melo was a better player 2 years ago.

Sorry for the dweeb comment. #hugs

I don't think that he was a better player to years ago then last year. The diff in wins were do to many factors.

We can all see that his shot is way off this season and many of them are gimme's that he used to make. That is why I do believe that there is a health issue here.

His 3 point eff is WAY down.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html

Lowry's winshares went from 11.7 to 5.4 from last year to this, and most would say he's having a career best year and Toronto is a great. Hows that?

because he's played 1/3 the total games
WS48 is adjusted for playing time. Total win shares is not.

ahh.. so WS is cumulative? So if he doesnt play another game his WS will stay at 5.4? Fair enough...

Yes, total win shares is an estimate of how many wins you have uniquely contributed to your team's total. WS 48 is an estimate of how many wins per game (per 48 min) you contribute. The average WS48 is .100. There are ten players on the court and each one on average is contributing one-tenth of a win. A player with a WS48 of .227 like Lowry is contributing almost a quarter of a win per game even though he's only one of the ten players on the court. Then, if you're WS48 is .227 and you play 10 games, you've contributed 2.27 total win shares. So that's the difference between total and per 48 #s.

So the metrics knock on Melo is his WS48 of .160-.180 is pretty good as a Knick, but not $25mm a year good?

If I remember right, you've asked what Melo is doing differently than a few years ago when we had the 54 win team. A lot of the difference is that we don't have the good supporting cast we had then. But you can see a decline in WS48 from .184 to .101. That decline is probably due to lower scoring efficiency (which is from a decline in 3s and FTs) and a significant decline in his defensive #s.

but that pretty much was my point... that Melo is Melo but the talent level around him has really taken a nosedive.

How is that # derived? Looking at Melo the difference between last year and the year before is minimal, yet one team won 37 vs. 54 the year before. I think most agree Melo was a better player 2 years ago.

Sorry for the dweeb comment. #hugs

I don't think that he was a better player to years ago then last year. The diff in wins were do to many factors.

We can all see that his shot is way off this season and many of them are gimme's that he used to make. That is why I do believe that there is a health issue here.

His 3 point eff is WAY down.

He's also doing less damage from the FT line. His defensive #s are worse too. That's probably a combination of worse defense by him and not having Chandler's help defense.

all true.

just pointing to the main cause of the demise.