Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

that's usually what happens when you have no retort. Instead of acknowledging and admitting wrong you just ignore things and go away for a while.

I agree with reinman I'm open to bringing Melo back on a fair deal but playoff Melo would still scares the crap out of me

I also wonder if young guys can develop playing with Melo. I have to imagine Phil will be able to get him to play the right way which no cosh has been capable of doing. Not Karl, not Dantoni or Woodson but that is also debatable.

A lot of question marks around a player entering his 12th season. The one season he reached the west conference final coincidently was the one year he was efficient in season and in the playoffs.

Competition gets tougher in he playoffs. No more Milwaukee & Orlando to kick around. Melo's playoffs efficiency drops dramatically. More ISO, less assists etc

12yrs and he still hasn't learned

Time to move on and Phil knows this

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

that's usually what happens when you have no retort. Instead of acknowledging and admitting wrong you just ignore things and go away for a while.

I agree with reinman I'm open to bringing Melo back on a fair deal but playoff Melo would still scares the crap out of me

I also wonder if young guys can develop playing with Melo. I have to imagine Phil will be able to get him to play the right way which no cosh has been capable of doing. Not Karl, not Dantoni or Woodson but that is also debatable.

A lot of question marks around a player entering his 12th season. The one season he reached the west conference final coincidently was the one year he was efficient in season and in the playoffs.

Competition gets tougher in he playoffs. No more Milwaukee & Orlando to kick around. Melo's playoffs efficiency drops dramatically. More ISO, less assists etc

12yrs and he still hasn't learned

Time to move on and Phil knows this

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

that's usually what happens when you have no retort. Instead of acknowledging and admitting wrong you just ignore things and go away for a while.

I agree with reinman I'm open to bringing Melo back on a fair deal but playoff Melo would still scares the crap out of me

I also wonder if young guys can develop playing with Melo. I have to imagine Phil will be able to get him to play the right way which no cosh has been capable of doing. Not Karl, not Dantoni or Woodson but that is also debatable.

A lot of question marks around a player entering his 12th season. The one season he reached the west conference final coincidently was the one year he was efficient in season and in the playoffs.

Competition gets tougher in he playoffs. No more Milwaukee & Orlando to kick around. Melo's playoffs efficiency drops dramatically. More ISO, less assists etc

12yrs and he still hasn't learned

Time to move on and Phil knows this

StarksEwing1 wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

that's usually what happens when you have no retort. Instead of acknowledging and admitting wrong you just ignore things and go away for a while.

I agree with reinman I'm open to bringing Melo back on a fair deal but playoff Melo would still scares the crap out of me

I also wonder if young guys can develop playing with Melo. I have to imagine Phil will be able to get him to play the right way which no cosh has been capable of doing. Not Karl, not Dantoni or Woodson but that is also debatable.

A lot of question marks around a player entering his 12th season. The one season he reached the west conference final coincidently was the one year he was efficient in season and in the playoffs.

Competition gets tougher in he playoffs. No more Milwaukee & Orlando to kick around. Melo's playoffs efficiency drops dramatically. More ISO, less assists etc

12yrs and he still hasn't learned

Time to move on and Phil knows this

I dont mind fish. I actually respect his fierce loyalty to melo in a way. However i agree unless Melo takes a significant paycut we should move on

Some of the stuff that gets regurgitated over and over around here is just old and has no relevence in the real world. Melo should take $10mm. Melo traded himself to the Knicks and made the owner use every asset he had. Melo killed Linsanity (pretty sure that was the Heat).

My thing is simple. He's never played next to another great player, and in the chances he has he has certainly flourished. I would at least like to see that. Melo is imperfect in every way. He's not a top 5 player, but I do think he's a top 10 and those guys are soooooo hard to get. I would like to see us get another and take a run here. Im so sick of losing and hoping for the next stud who probably wont be as good as Melo in the first place. We have no high picks. We are not tanking for a year with Phil here. Folks may want these things but open your eyes. Its not happening.

I root for every guy on the roster to play well and do well. There are people here who would prefer to see him fail and say "I told ya"
Thats pathetic.

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

no... after 430pm when I leave work I am not really interested. But I did look now and am responding.

Hey Bonn.. thats all good and nice, but again... we live in the real world.

If you go to a nice NYC steakhouse do you order the $20 chicken? Its safe... consistent.. or do you splurge for the $50 rib eye? Now if you order the rib eye do you ask your waiter if its going to be perfect? If you will enjoy every bite? If the fat will have that nice salty char? No... you probably just order it and live with your choice?

Im not looking to splash some "you might be wrong later" post about this later and bookmark the thread. Thats not my style. You simply said that Melo could elevate a team who cant get out of the first round to an elite status (ECF or NBAF). To me that says a lot. Those are the hardest wins in the NBA to come by. Its a pretty good post by you Bonnie! 50k tries and you said something mate! Im proud.... If my limited reading skills (no math here) have this right you think Melo makes more sense as a money guy for the Bulls who are more likely to reap the rewards of that deal because they need Melo's impact right away. As opposed to the Knicks who are more likely a year or two away making a Melo money splurge more risky and put us in another Amare siutation.

A couple caveats on taking less...Tim Duncan is a poor example. When Duncan was Melo's age he signed a max contract that paid him huge money. It was not until the 12-13 season when Duncan was 36 years old did he sign a "discount" contract that everyone thinks Melo should sign. In fact when Duncan was 30, the same age Melo is now he signed the most he could get. Duncan made $117mm between the ages of 30-35. Obviously a gamble that paid very well for the Spurs, but Duncan did exactly what people are saying MElo should not.

Duncan by the years:
age salary:
30 $17mm
31 $19mm
32 $20mm
33 $22mm
34 $18mm
35 $21mm
36 $9.5mm
37 $10mm

So if there is a precedent for taking less money to allow your team flexibility to add other guys look to the Miami crew as an example. The Spurs guys, especially Duncan have been paid very well. The problem with the Miami guys is they all knew they were going there, so there was some collusion. Do you think those guys would have signed those discounted deals if the best thing on the table was Pat Riley saying "hey, Im Pat Riley and you should sign for less because Im going to get guys...."

No... so be very careful with examples of other star guys taking less to join a winner. Duncan got paid... bigtime. What Duncan didnt do was ask for Kobe money when he's 35-36 years old, but he sure as hell got the money when he was Melo's age now!

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

no... after 430pm when I leave work I am not really interested. But I did look now and am responding.

Hey Bonn.. thats all good and nice, but again... we live in the real world.

If you go to a nice NYC steakhouse do you order the $20 chicken? Its safe... consistent.. or do you splurge for the $50 rib eye? Now if you order the rib eye do you ask your waiter if its going to be perfect? If you will enjoy every bite? If the fat will have that nice salty char? No... you probably just order it and live with your choice?

Im not looking to splash some "you might be wrong later" post about this later and bookmark the thread. Thats not my style. You simply said that Melo could elevate a team who cant get out of the first round to an elite status (ECF or NBAF). To me that says a lot. Those are the hardest wins in the NBA to come by. Its a pretty good post by you Bonnie! 50k tries and you said something mate! Im proud.... If my limited reading skills (no math here) have this right you think Melo makes more sense as a money guy for the Bulls who are more likely to reap the rewards of that deal because they need Melo's impact right away. As opposed to the Knicks who are more likely a year or two away making a Melo money splurge more risky and put us in another Amare siutation.

A couple caveats on taking less...Tim Duncan is a poor example. When Duncan was Melo's age he signed a max contract that paid him huge money. It was not until the 12-13 season when Duncan was 36 years old did he sign a "discount" contract that everyone thinks Melo should sign. In fact when Duncan was 30, the same age Melo is now he signed the most he could get. Duncan made $117mm between the ages of 30-35. Obviously a gamble that paid very well for the Spurs, but Duncan did exactly what people are saying MElo should not.

Duncan by the years:
age salary:
30 $17mm
31 $19mm
32 $20mm
33 $22mm
34 $18mm
35 $21mm
36 $9.5mm
37 $10mm

So if there is a precedent for taking less money to allow your team flexibility to add other guys look to the Miami crew as an example. The Spurs guys, especially Duncan have been paid very well. The problem with the Miami guys is they all knew they were going there, so there was some collusion. Do you think those guys would have signed those discounted deals if the best thing on the table was Pat Riley saying "hey, Im Pat Riley and you should sign for less because Im going to get guys...."

No... so be very careful with examples of other star guys taking less to join a winner. Duncan got paid... bigtime. What Duncan didnt do was ask for Kobe money when he's 35-36 years old, but he sure as hell got the money when he was Melo's age now!

Only part of the possibility of reaching elite status within the east would be attributable to Melo. The combination of adding Melo AND having better luck in a small sample of games, better luck in terms of opponents' health, better luck in terms of what happens in Miami, etc. would all be needed for the team to reach elite status within the east.
If Duncan at age 32 was worth $22 mil, then Melo in his early 30s should only be worth around $13 mil anyway. Your #s don't really help your case.

Yea Duncan at 30 made $17m Melo made $23 this year. So those numbers definitely doesn't help melo's cause. Duncan got a pay increase in his mid 30's then Probably realized he had to go back to taking less. It worked because he just win his 5th ring

I don't expect Melo to accept a low ball offer but he should not be paid anything north of $20m. He is not worth that kind of money. Too many flaws. He's not Duncan, Shaq, Jordan or Kobe or KG. In his mind and in some fans mind he is. But those are people who are narrowed minded and only value PPG. Everything else like making plays for others, playing championship failed defense, moving without the ball be damned

GustavBahler wrote:^ Duncan also had a core he was familiar with. Melo doesnt know who he would be playing with. If he wants to stay and build a contender in NY, Melo should consider a discount. Not fire sale prices like Duncan who already got his big deal, but enough not to make Phil's job of surrounding him with enough talent to contend improbable. If he wants the max, I hope he looks elsewhere. No hard feelings.

If it was me I wouldnt wait for FAs to sign here. The deck is always stacked against us.

If it was up to me, based on all the current factors I would just focus on resigning MElo. If he takes a discount Ill give him 5 years. If he wants max Ill give him 4 (4 years $100mm). Then use my expirings in Chandler/Bargs/Amare to bring in guys with longer deals and bad contracts. Yes, I said bad contracts. Overpaid is ok, but lets get some picks back, even if they are 2nd rounders I can use to stockpile overseas players. Build up the pipeline and take a 4 year shot with Melo, Josh Smith, David Lee, Rudy Gay... whatever. At the end of those 4 years you can do a REAL house cleaning as we will have had a few years to develop some guys. Then gut the roster and a couple max guys. Maybe its John Wall and Paul George or Anthony Davis and Ricky Rubio... who the hell knows. The point is just have a plan. We really only have the assets for one direction. All these teams looking to dump salary we should buy low.

fishmike wrote:Any minute now TFK and DK will be done with morning cuddles and blast me for saying "Fish thinks Melo and Duncan are as good" or something equally retarded.

for those who accuse me and DK of trolling this is a classic example of what I mean.. what is the meaning of this post.. and for no one to speak out on it, call fish out on it, just goes to show the hypocrisy on this board!

Martin if you see this, I can point out about 20 other post from fish just like this.. this has nothing to do with basketball.. nothing!!! is this going to go unchecked?

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:

Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.

you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.

kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?

I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.

And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)

This is exactly how I feel. I would not overpay for him, but I do think that at the right price he can push a team over the edge to winning.

However, his playoffs output and style still scare the hell out of me.

I actually wrote all that for Fish after he asked for an explanation. I thought I'd at least get a reply. Come on, Fish. You're only going to reply to me when you think you catch an inconsistency, but you're not actually interested in the explanation?

no... after 430pm when I leave work I am not really interested. But I did look now and am responding.

Hey Bonn.. thats all good and nice, but again... we live in the real world.

If you go to a nice NYC steakhouse do you order the $20 chicken? Its safe... consistent.. or do you splurge for the $50 rib eye? Now if you order the rib eye do you ask your waiter if its going to be perfect? If you will enjoy every bite? If the fat will have that nice salty char? No... you probably just order it and live with your choice?

Im not looking to splash some "you might be wrong later" post about this later and bookmark the thread. Thats not my style. You simply said that Melo could elevate a team who cant get out of the first round to an elite status (ECF or NBAF). To me that says a lot. Those are the hardest wins in the NBA to come by. Its a pretty good post by you Bonnie! 50k tries and you said something mate! Im proud.... If my limited reading skills (no math here) have this right you think Melo makes more sense as a money guy for the Bulls who are more likely to reap the rewards of that deal because they need Melo's impact right away. As opposed to the Knicks who are more likely a year or two away making a Melo money splurge more risky and put us in another Amare siutation.

A couple caveats on taking less...Tim Duncan is a poor example. When Duncan was Melo's age he signed a max contract that paid him huge money. It was not until the 12-13 season when Duncan was 36 years old did he sign a "discount" contract that everyone thinks Melo should sign. In fact when Duncan was 30, the same age Melo is now he signed the most he could get. Duncan made $117mm between the ages of 30-35. Obviously a gamble that paid very well for the Spurs, but Duncan did exactly what people are saying MElo should not.

Duncan by the years:
age salary:
30 $17mm
31 $19mm
32 $20mm
33 $22mm
34 $18mm
35 $21mm
36 $9.5mm
37 $10mm

So if there is a precedent for taking less money to allow your team flexibility to add other guys look to the Miami crew as an example. The Spurs guys, especially Duncan have been paid very well. The problem with the Miami guys is they all knew they were going there, so there was some collusion. Do you think those guys would have signed those discounted deals if the best thing on the table was Pat Riley saying "hey, Im Pat Riley and you should sign for less because Im going to get guys...."

No... so be very careful with examples of other star guys taking less to join a winner. Duncan got paid... bigtime. What Duncan didnt do was ask for Kobe money when he's 35-36 years old, but he sure as hell got the money when he was Melo's age now!

Only part of the possibility of reaching elite status within the east would be attributable to Melo. The combination of adding Melo AND having better luck in a small sample of games, better luck in terms of opponents' health, better luck in terms of what happens in Miami, etc. would all be needed for the team to reach elite status within the east.
If Duncan at age 32 was worth $22 mil, then Melo in his early 30s should only be worth around $13 mil anyway. Your #s don't really help your case.

Yea Duncan at 30 made $17m Melo made $23 this year. So those numbers definitely doesn't help melo's cause. Duncan got a pay increase in his mid 30's then Probably realized he had to go back to taking less. It worked because he just win his 5th ring

I don't expect Melo to accept a low ball offer but he should not be paid anything north of $20m. He is not worth that kind of money. Too many flaws. He's not Duncan, Shaq, Jordan or Kobe or KG. In his mind and in some fans mind he is. But those are people who are narrowed minded and only value PPG. Everything else like making plays for others, playing championship failed defense, moving without the ball be damned