yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:They undervalued him more in the duration of the contract. He should have been able to get at least 4 years, 35 mil with a player option (rather than the contract just ending) after the second year.
Put it this way, would you rather have 3 Paul Millsaps or Melo? If we had 3 Millsaps, do you think we'd still be a .400 team?
The shooting efficiency is probably just random variation. His 3s are better and 2s are worse this year.

I think if we had 10 Milsaps we would win a title because he's so efficient. Like my speling.

You know what's interesting is that a guy like Millsap is labeled efficient but really is not and Melo is labeled inefficient but really is efficient. Is that Ironic? No really is that Ironic I get the use of that word mixed up.

Career-wise, Millsap contributes 112 and Melo 108 points per 100 possessions, which is the best measure of how efficiently the player uses your offensive possessions. (For unknown reasons, some people think assists and turnovers have nothing to do with efficiency). If you reduce the sample to just this year, Melo comes out ahead of Millsap though. I'd say they're both a little above average in efficiency but neither is great.

Career wise Bargs was a very good 3pt shooter before this year. What did that get anyone? I think you are hanging on to what Millsap used to be and not what he is. Over the past three years Melo Ortg is going up while Millsaps is going down but that doesn't matter much.

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:They undervalued him more in the duration of the contract. He should have been able to get at least 4 years, 35 mil with a player option (rather than the contract just ending) after the second year.
Put it this way, would you rather have 3 Paul Millsaps or Melo? If we had 3 Millsaps, do you think we'd still be a .400 team?
The shooting efficiency is probably just random variation. His 3s are better and 2s are worse this year.

I think if we had 10 Milsaps we would win a title because he's so efficient. Like my speling.

You know what's interesting is that a guy like Millsap is labeled efficient but really is not and Melo is labeled inefficient but really is efficient. Is that Ironic? No really is that Ironic I get the use of that word mixed up.

Career-wise, Millsap contributes 112 and Melo 108 points per 100 possessions, which is the best measure of how efficiently the player uses your offensive possessions. (For unknown reasons, some people think assists and turnovers have nothing to do with efficiency). If you reduce the sample to just this year, Melo comes out ahead of Millsap though. I'd say they're both a little above average in efficiency but neither is great.

Career wise Bargs was a very good 3pt shooter before this year. What did that get anyone? I think you are hanging on to what Millsap used to be and not what he is. Over the past three years Melo Ortg is going up while Millsaps is going down but that doesn't matter much.

No, it matters but it's also smaller than the full sample. I'd give more weight (maybe double) to more recent years. Efficiency is important but it's only one aspect of the game obviously.

Anyway, It will be interesting to see if teams come calling for his services in the offseason and how much atl value him. DO they want to cash their chips in now or will they gamble on Paul having a better year with Horford and then overpay him when he is 30? I think Paul needs to find a team to nestle into a David West type role.

Bonn1997 wrote:GMs (or the "market") really misjudged Millsap's value. It's hard to believe he got only 2 yrs, $9.5 mil per

I don't understand how it happened- for years everyone was singing his praises, saying he was underrated, a great player etc etc, then no one bothered trading for him at the deadline when he was with the Jazz, and he didn't seem to get many offers. The guy just seems to help teams win games. Can't believe the Jazz let him walk for nothing and didn't even make the playoffs that season! What a waste of resources!

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:So Bonn, would you take a chance on Ilyasova? I think before this year one would kinda group Millsap and Ilyasova as similar type players. Ilyasova the better 3 pt shooter but both can get some rebounds and defend two positions.

Well, his efficiency is absurdly bad this year - nothing like Millsap. A PF making .446% of his 2 pointers? And shooting .280 from 3 point range? His #s were good before this year. I'd have to know more about his situation but most likely I'd rather keep the cap space open.

Do advanced stats take into account 'contract years'? I think they should be weighted accordingly!

yellowboy90 wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

y2zipper wrote:The Clippers only had 60 million on the books when they acquired Redick and Dudley. They weren't close to the tax line.

http://www.sbnation.com/2013/7/2/4488366/suns-clippers-bucks-trade-eric-bledsoe-jj-redick-jared-dudley

This article talks about it being a financial win for the Clippers, who saved money and preserved their MLE in the deal. Remember, they gave up Caron Butler and Eric Bledsoe and actually saved money here.

The current rule is that a taxpayer can't receive a player in a sign and trade unless they take less salary than they give up.

But definitely over the cap. So was it possible for the Knicks to create a trade that could've dumped Bargnani for a trade exception (for Millsap and Mo) that also moved us closer to the cap threshold? Would we have been able to keep JR's rights?

I think you are lost in your scenario. The knicks wouldn't have Bargs at the time right? They would be using Novak, Camby, Richardson?, and etc to get M&M and would need to dump somebody else maybe to make it work. MAybe I'm the one who is lost. IDK.

No, it is definitely my fault. I tried editing and re-editing the post and it still didn't seem clear to me. Maybe if I do it bulletin-style.

Step 1:Knicks engage in a 3 team trade.
●Raptors get our original Bargnani package.
●We get a trade exception equivalent to $12 million.
●A third team, with cap space, takes Bargnani.

Step 2: Knicks (who are now below the luxury tax/apron) trade the exception for both Paul Millsap and Mo Williams.

Does that make more sense?

No, because the third team with Cap space would probably want compensation for having Bargs on their roster.Just go to Hoopshype and do the math. I did a quick look and I think the knicks would have had 64/69M depending if you wanted to keep JR. So lets go with your scenario, now that you have the TPE, you can just fit Millsap in under the tax if you trade Hardaway and do not bring back JR because I think his salary becomes an issue with the new CBA when it comes to S&Ts even though you can go over the cap to sign him. Now what do you have to offer Utah to get them to do a S&T with the Knicks?

I count our payroll at approximately $60 million if we dumped Novak's and Camby's salaries.

Melo and Amare were earning approximately $20 million each. Tyson was at $14 million. Felton was at $4 million, Iman was at $2 million. With cap holds on JR ($3 million) and vacant roster spots ($4.5 million), that would come up to $67.5 million which is still below the luxury tax. So I don't see how or why we couldn't make the deal if we'd be below the tax with all roster spots/players accounted for. I'm not saying that you're wrong either. But based on what has been said about the CBA, I think we'd be able to make the trade and exceed the tax apron if we were below it to start. I could be wrong.

If I am right though, I think that it is fairly reasonable to presume that we could've dealt Camby and Novak to a team with cap space if we were still willing to give up 3 picks (and Iman). Marcus' contract wasn't event fully guaranteed so all you're taking about is a $4 million hit on your payroll, which is chump-change for NBA teams. So even if no team wanted Bargnani outright, there were other options for creating the trade exception. As for the Jazz, they let Millsap and Mo go for nothing so I doubt they'd need any incentive to make the deal, other than keeping the trade exception and possibly cash.

NardDogNation wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:So Bonn, would you take a chance on Ilyasova? I think before this year one would kinda group Millsap and Ilyasova as similar type players. Ilyasova the better 3 pt shooter but both can get some rebounds and defend two positions.

Well, his efficiency is absurdly bad this year - nothing like Millsap. A PF making .446% of his 2 pointers? And shooting .280 from 3 point range? His #s were good before this year. I'd have to know more about his situation but most likely I'd rather keep the cap space open.

To be honest, it is hard to be efficient when your team's next best available player is an NBA level journeyman. If it wasn't for Budenholzer coaching, the Hawks would be mentioned in the same breathe as the Milwaukee Bucks. Teams can cue in on Millsap and make his life extremely difficult because of it. Paul doesn't have the skill to be "the man" but he wouldn't have to be that if he were a Knick. That's Melo's role.

I agree. Efficiency numbers (can) take a him when playing with malcontents. I wonder why his numbers are way off this year. What changed?

NardDogNation wrote:

VCoug wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:The knicks could not have gotten either player unless it was at the deadline of the last season because teams over the cap can't receive players in a S&T. However, if those players were substituted then the knicks would have had a very good season.

I actually think the Knicks could compete in the east next year minus Bargs and Felton getting a lot of playing time.

You mean over the luxury tax, right? Because the Clippers were definitely over the cap and most likely above the $70 million tax threshold but still received JJ Redick in a sign and trade from the Bucks. There are so many hitches in this new CBA that maybe there is something we're missing. Either way, couldn't we just have quickly dumped Bargnani on a team with cap space and then use the trade exception plus Iman for Millsap and Mo?

As for competing next year, I just don't see it. Melo is really the only player of any consequence that could get us any value in return. If we're not trading him and rebuilding, there isn't much here. Every offseason, there are usually talented guys that can be had without surrendering assets (e.g. Paul Millsap, Mo Williams, Thomas Robinson) but that requires ingenuity that our front office has never possessed; case and point, Ramon Sessions should've been acquired at the deadline (he's killing it right now and the Bobcats gave him up for next to nothing). Time will tell but not only do our guys suck, I don't even think they fit the triangle (especially Tyson Chandler).

You're right Nard. Teams over the luxury tax apron, which is $4M over the luxury tax, can't receive players in a sign and trade.

Gotcha, thanks. Is it me or is there far more detail involved with the new CBA? In years past, I had it down to the "T" but I'm having a hard time grasping the finer details of this new one.

That being said, could we have theoretically arranged a 3 team deal that involved shedding Camby and Novak's contract, while finding a third team with cap space (like the Hawks) to take Bargnani with the intention of creating a massive trade exception to get Millsap and Mo? Would we still have been able to keep JR's rights?

No, that wouldn't work. The luxury tax apron is $75M and we would need to end up below that number if we were to receive a signed-and-traded player and getting rid of Bargnani's contract for a trade exception only gets our cap number down to about $77M and that's not counting Millsap and Williams. The two of them make about $12M combined this season so we'd need to send out another $14M in contracts, probably even a little more, in order to get them.

There's two things with the new CBA. There's definitely more detail involved; with the last one the only we really cared about is if we were over or under the cap to sign players and we could use ESPN's or RealGM's trade machine for everything else. With the new one it matters how far over the cap you are which creates more restrictions and makes it more complicated. The other thing is that we were used to the last CBA, the same basic one had been in place since 1999. I don't think the rules regarding trades and salary cap exceptions really changed much in 2004(?, or whenever the last one went into effect, I can't remember) and 1999.

[b]EDIT[/b} I forgot something. If a team receives a sign-and-trade player than the tax apron, about $75M this season, becomes a hard cap for that team and can't go over it for any reason.

yellowboy90 wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

mreinman wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:So Bonn, would you take a chance on Ilyasova? I think before this year one would kinda group Millsap and Ilyasova as similar type players. Ilyasova the better 3 pt shooter but both can get some rebounds and defend two positions.

Well, his efficiency is absurdly bad this year - nothing like Millsap. A PF making .446% of his 2 pointers? And shooting .280 from 3 point range? His #s were good before this year. I'd have to know more about his situation but most likely I'd rather keep the cap space open.

To be honest, it is hard to be efficient when your team's next best available player is an NBA level journeyman. If it wasn't for Budenholzer coaching, the Hawks would be mentioned in the same breathe as the Milwaukee Bucks. Teams can cue in on Millsap and make his life extremely difficult because of it. Paul doesn't have the skill to be "the man" but he wouldn't have to be that if he were a Knick. That's Melo's role.

I agree. Efficiency numbers (can) take a him when playing with malcontents. I wonder why his numbers are way off this year. What changed?

The Jazz actually had talent; the Hawks don't. It's easier to perform better with good teammates than poor ones. Plus Millsap has been a bit dinged up this year and just recently came back off the injured list.

Are his number different over the last 3 years?

Anyway, I think the Knicks should take a look at Ilyasova and see if they could get him if they can dump Felton in the process. Maybe his numbers go back up to its career #s and the Knicks get a young talented versatile player on the cheap.

Millsap's FG is down this year from his avg. His assists are up though (3.1 - nice!)

Winning (type) player - wish we had him.

I don't think that Felton is dump-able.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

mreinman wrote:

NardDogNation wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:So Bonn, would you take a chance on Ilyasova? I think before this year one would kinda group Millsap and Ilyasova as similar type players. Ilyasova the better 3 pt shooter but both can get some rebounds and defend two positions.

Well, his efficiency is absurdly bad this year - nothing like Millsap. A PF making .446% of his 2 pointers? And shooting .280 from 3 point range? His #s were good before this year. I'd have to know more about his situation but most likely I'd rather keep the cap space open.

To be honest, it is hard to be efficient when your team's next best available player is an NBA level journeyman. If it wasn't for Budenholzer coaching, the Hawks would be mentioned in the same breathe as the Milwaukee Bucks. Teams can cue in on Millsap and make his life extremely difficult because of it. Paul doesn't have the skill to be "the man" but he wouldn't have to be that if he were a Knick. That's Melo's role.

I agree. Efficiency numbers (can) take a him when playing with malcontents. I wonder why his numbers are way off this year. What changed?

The Jazz actually had talent; the Hawks don't. It's easier to perform better with good teammates than poor ones. Plus Millsap has been a bit dinged up this year and just recently came back off the injured list.

Are his number different over the last 3 years?

Anyway, I think the Knicks should take a look at Ilyasova and see if they could get him if they can dump Felton in the process. Maybe his numbers go back up to its career #s and the Knicks get a young talented versatile player on the cheap.

Millsap's FG is down this year from his avg. His assists are up though (3.1 - nice!)

Winning (type) player - wish we had him.

Oh so you were just playing devil's advocate when you were arguing with me?!

Did I argue with you?