knickscity wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

knickscity wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

knickscity wrote:I honestly dont see the debate, they were fairly accurate in their picks regardless of the formula.

Some of you guys are acting like one of hs school teacher decades ago....

She didnt care if i had the answer right unless i showed here the work as well.

People who think they're experts and take a lot of pride in it, don't like it when a formula does better than they do.

Because the formula is a guess, trying to pass itself off as more than a guess. It's subjective, but tries to make out it's an objective fact.

isnt anything predicted before it happens "a guess"?

Exactly, but it tries to make out it's not a guess because it's based on sums. That's my issue with it. I think people see the complex sums, don't understand them and then just assume these people are 'experts' and must know more than they do.

this makes no sense.

Not really sure how I can make it any simpler.

smackeddog wrote:

knickscity wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

knickscity wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

knickscity wrote:I honestly dont see the debate, they were fairly accurate in their picks regardless of the formula.

Some of you guys are acting like one of hs school teacher decades ago....

She didnt care if i had the answer right unless i showed here the work as well.

People who think they're experts and take a lot of pride in it, don't like it when a formula does better than they do.

Because the formula is a guess, trying to pass itself off as more than a guess. It's subjective, but tries to make out it's an objective fact.

isnt anything predicted before it happens "a guess"?

Exactly, but it tries to make out it's not a guess because it's based on sums. That's my issue with it. I think people see the complex sums, don't understand them and then just assume these people are 'experts' and must know more than they do.

this makes no sense.

Not really sure how I can make it any simpler.

Well it didn't make any sense to me either. What do you mean by "based on sums"? Do you mean they're adding the wins produced for each individual player? What should be used instead of sums?

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

VCoug wrote:

smackeddog wrote:It's amazing how Wages of Wins also can foresee all the injuries each team will have, and the injury status of the teams you play against. Oh that's right, it doesn't- IT JUST MAKES THIS S*** UP and adds some mathematics to make it look like some sort of fact rather than a guess!

Please, who couldn't have guessed last years playoff teams?! Who honestly surprised you?

What next, horoscopes based on complex sums?

So because they can't perfectly predict injury status that means it's worthless?

Yes it does!

So you're opposed to all forecasting? People on the internet should only be allowed to talk about the past?

Not at all, but I guess my issue is when it's hyped up as something it's not. It's just a series of guesses, that has no better chance of coming to pass than your guess or my guess. You can divise all the formula you like, but there are too many variables.

For me personally, I just prefer it when people trust their own judgment and go with their gut feelings when it comes to basketball- just feels like that's getting pushed out in favor of mathematical formula. Miss the days when you posted your own opinions based on your gut, Bonn1997!

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:i am not a fan of the way they project minutes, especially for such unstable teams like the knicks are.

it works better for stable teams like chicago, miami, pacers.

in my opinion these are flawed premises... unless someone can explain to me how other factors might mitigate the minutes projection.

All forecasts will be flawed to some extent. Whenever anyone tries to project how teams will do, assumptions about how many minutes players will get are built into the projections.

well lets narrow the focus to the nets. we know that kidd is going to want to curtail pp and kg minutes but the projection has pp playing 33 and kg 27 this season, which you pointed out is based on 3 previous seasons. does that seem likely to you? i mean look what happened to kidd himself last year. (40 is different from 36 and 37 but not enough to undermine the argument i am making here.)

you say assumptions are built in but how can that be acceptable given their new situation and the age factor? shouldn't these be considered as well or is that too much data to factor in?

It's the games played I think will be curtailed, not necessarily the minutes.

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

VCoug wrote:

smackeddog wrote:It's amazing how Wages of Wins also can foresee all the injuries each team will have, and the injury status of the teams you play against. Oh that's right, it doesn't- IT JUST MAKES THIS S*** UP and adds some mathematics to make it look like some sort of fact rather than a guess!

Please, who couldn't have guessed last years playoff teams?! Who honestly surprised you?

What next, horoscopes based on complex sums?

So because they can't perfectly predict injury status that means it's worthless?

Yes it does!

So you're opposed to all forecasting? People on the internet should only be allowed to talk about the past?

Not at all, but I guess my issue is when it's hyped up as something it's not. It's just a series of guesses, that has no better chance of coming to pass than your guess or my guess. You can divise all the formula you like, but there are too many variables.

For me personally, I just prefer it when people trust their own judgment and go with their gut feelings when it comes to basketball- just feels like that's getting pushed out in favor of mathematical formula. Miss the days when you posted your own opinions based on your gut, Bonn1997!

Well I was usually wrong when I did that. I don't know if you were here early in the Isiah days when I was as big a homer as anyone was.
My objection I think is based on your use of the word guess. A guess by definition means that nothing of informative value is being used. Pure guessing should not be right any more than by chance, although clearly this and other formulas are.

Ha, I was taken in by IT too! Not quite to the extent that Dolan was, but I remember being excited with the Eddie Curry trade, and thinking that BRIGGs was making a big deal about nothing when he raised concern about the lack of protection on the picks! Then when we signed Larry Brown, I thought the championship was just around the corner.

But I guess we all learnt the importance of a players character, the importance of constructing a team that actually fits, the importance of a players work ethic, defense etc.

I feel the IT years robbed a lot of us of our innocence!

Just out of curiosity, Putting aside the stats and formula for a minute, what does the old Bonn1997 gut say about this team?

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

VCoug wrote:

smackeddog wrote:It's amazing how Wages of Wins also can foresee all the injuries each team will have, and the injury status of the teams you play against. Oh that's right, it doesn't- IT JUST MAKES THIS S*** UP and adds some mathematics to make it look like some sort of fact rather than a guess!

Please, who couldn't have guessed last years playoff teams?! Who honestly surprised you?

What next, horoscopes based on complex sums?

So because they can't perfectly predict injury status that means it's worthless?

Yes it does!

So you're opposed to all forecasting? People on the internet should only be allowed to talk about the past?

Not at all, but I guess my issue is when it's hyped up as something it's not. It's just a series of guesses, that has no better chance of coming to pass than your guess or my guess. You can divise all the formula you like, but there are too many variables.

For me personally, I just prefer it when people trust their own judgment and go with their gut feelings when it comes to basketball- just feels like that's getting pushed out in favor of mathematical formula. Miss the days when you posted your own opinions based on your gut, Bonn1997!

Well I was usually wrong when I did that. I don't know if you were here early in the Isiah days when I was as big a homer as anyone was.
My objection I think is based on your use of the word guess. A guess by definition means that nothing of informative value is being used. Pure guessing should not be right any more than by chance, although clearly this and other formulas are.

Ha, I was taken in by IT too! Not quite to the extent that Dolan was, but I remember being excited with the Eddie Curry trade, and thinking that BRIGGs was making a big deal about nothing when he raised concern about the lack of protection on the picks! Then when we signed Larry Brown, I thought the championship was just around the corner.

But I guess we all learnt the importance of a players character, the importance of constructing a team that actually fits, the importance of a players work ethic, defense etc.

I feel the IT years robbed a lot of us of our innocence!

Just out of curiosity, Putting aside the stats and formula for a minute, what does the old Bonn1997 gut say about this team?

I'd probably be captivated by how flashy Melo and Bargs are on offense and then be shocked when they didn't win nearly as many games as I expected.

Basically, I'd sound like Nixluva on steroids, since that's how I sounded back then!

Bonn1997 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

VCoug wrote:

smackeddog wrote:It's amazing how Wages of Wins also can foresee all the injuries each team will have, and the injury status of the teams you play against. Oh that's right, it doesn't- IT JUST MAKES THIS S*** UP and adds some mathematics to make it look like some sort of fact rather than a guess!

Please, who couldn't have guessed last years playoff teams?! Who honestly surprised you?

What next, horoscopes based on complex sums?

So because they can't perfectly predict injury status that means it's worthless?

Yes it does!

So you're opposed to all forecasting? People on the internet should only be allowed to talk about the past?

Not at all, but I guess my issue is when it's hyped up as something it's not. It's just a series of guesses, that has no better chance of coming to pass than your guess or my guess. You can divise all the formula you like, but there are too many variables.

For me personally, I just prefer it when people trust their own judgment and go with their gut feelings when it comes to basketball- just feels like that's getting pushed out in favor of mathematical formula. Miss the days when you posted your own opinions based on your gut, Bonn1997!

Well I was usually wrong when I did that. I don't know if you were here early in the Isiah days when I was as big a homer as anyone was.
My objection I think is based on your use of the word guess. A guess by definition means that nothing of informative value is being used. Pure guessing should not be right any more than by chance, although clearly this and other formulas are.

Ha, I was taken in by IT too! Not quite to the extent that Dolan was, but I remember being excited with the Eddie Curry trade, and thinking that BRIGGs was making a big deal about nothing when he raised concern about the lack of protection on the picks! Then when we signed Larry Brown, I thought the championship was just around the corner.

But I guess we all learnt the importance of a players character, the importance of constructing a team that actually fits, the importance of a players work ethic, defense etc.

I feel the IT years robbed a lot of us of our innocence!

Just out of curiosity, Putting aside the stats and formula for a minute, what does the old Bonn1997 gut say about this team?

I'd probably be captivated by how flashy Melo and Bargs are on offense and then be shocked when they didn't win nearly as many games as I expected.

Basically, I'd sound like Nixluva on steroids, since that's how I sounded back then!

I would've sounded the Same back then. I actually convinced myself that after trading Ewing we were gonna get a huge bounce back year from Glen Rice. He was ok not great on the Lakers. I guess I grew up a little and becam jaded since then

knickscity wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:i am not a fan of the way they project minutes, especially for such unstable teams like the knicks are.

it works better for stable teams like chicago, miami, pacers.

in my opinion these are flawed premises... unless someone can explain to me how other factors might mitigate the minutes projection.

All forecasts will be flawed to some extent. Whenever anyone tries to project how teams will do, assumptions about how many minutes players will get are built into the projections.

well lets narrow the focus to the nets. we know that kidd is going to want to curtail pp and kg minutes but the projection has pp playing 33 and kg 27 this season, which you pointed out is based on 3 previous seasons. does that seem likely to you? i mean look what happened to kidd himself last year. (40 is different from 36 and 37 but not enough to undermine the argument i am making here.)

you say assumptions are built in but how can that be acceptable given their new situation and the age factor? shouldn't these be considered as well or is that too much data to factor in?

Personally I could care less how they arrive at their final numbers, but is it really farfetched to see those guys play that many minutes?

It's the games played I think will be curtailed, not necessarily the minutes.

hmm you have a point but i wonder if it would be so bad to have them play every game but more like 28 and 23, giving other guys steadier minutes and deepening the reliability of the bench and preserving those guys just as effectively. i mean it's 40 years ago but holzman played 12 guys.

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

VCoug wrote:

smackeddog wrote:It's amazing how Wages of Wins also can foresee all the injuries each team will have, and the injury status of the teams you play against. Oh that's right, it doesn't- IT JUST MAKES THIS S*** UP and adds some mathematics to make it look like some sort of fact rather than a guess!

Please, who couldn't have guessed last years playoff teams?! Who honestly surprised you?

What next, horoscopes based on complex sums?

So because they can't perfectly predict injury status that means it's worthless?

Yes it does!

So you're opposed to all forecasting? People on the internet should only be allowed to talk about the past?

Not at all, but I guess my issue is when it's hyped up as something it's not. It's just a series of guesses, that has no better chance of coming to pass than your guess or my guess. You can divise all the formula you like, but there are too many variables.

For me personally, I just prefer it when people trust their own judgment and go with their gut feelings when it comes to basketball- just feels like that's getting pushed out in favor of mathematical formula. Miss the days when you posted your own opinions based on your gut, Bonn1997!

Well I was usually wrong when I did that. I don't know if you were here early in the Isiah days when I was as big a homer as anyone was.
My objection I think is based on your use of the word guess. A guess by definition means that nothing of informative value is being used. Pure guessing should not be right any more than by chance, although clearly this and other formulas are.

Ha, I was taken in by IT too! Not quite to the extent that Dolan was, but I remember being excited with the Eddie Curry trade, and thinking that BRIGGs was making a big deal about nothing when he raised concern about the lack of protection on the picks! Then when we signed Larry Brown, I thought the championship was just around the corner.

But I guess we all learnt the importance of a players character, the importance of constructing a team that actually fits, the importance of a players work ethic, defense etc.

I feel the IT years robbed a lot of us of our innocence!

Just out of curiosity, Putting aside the stats and formula for a minute, what does the old Bonn1997 gut say about this team?

I'd probably be captivated by how flashy Melo and Bargs are on offense and then be shocked when they didn't win nearly as many games as I expected.

Basically, I'd sound like Nixluva on steroids, since that's how I sounded back then!

I would've sounded the Same back then. I actually convinced myself that after trading Ewing we were gonna get a huge bounce back year from Glen Rice. He was ok not great on the Lakers. I guess I grew up a little and becam jaded since then

Ha ha, I had the same delusions (I still remember that season when Glen Rice was absolutely killing it- I think his partner had told him he played soft, and he responded by become a beast for a year). Thought Luc Longly would be able to hold down the C spot too. I do miss my blind enthusiasm from my younger Knick fan days- I was usually wrong, but it was kind of fun at the time- now I usually greet every trade with a guarded trepidation...