Anji wrote:I meant to say Amare vs kobe, Amares win share is .10 points lower. Doesn't tell me anything about those two players.

Bonn1997 wrote:

Anji wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Oh and if you were surprised by Melo's win share stat, go look up Monta Ellis. He makes Carmelo look like the smartest decision-maker in the history of the game.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html

I do think there are some players whose contributions are not fully captured by the stats. Jared Jeffries is probably the best example. But I don't Melo is one of those players.

Monta Ellis plays for a team that has been to the playoffs once in the last 20-25 years........ his WIN SHARE IS LOW!!!!!!!!!!!! WHO KNEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You do not understand the win share statistic. The team's total wins are not put into the equation to calculate a player's individual win share stat. Likewise, specific players' win share stats tend to be pretty stable even when they switch from bad to good teams. Go look at Kevin Love's win share stats from when the T-Wolves were terrible.

When I look up W/S I don't see anything. I don't see anything about Monta, nothing about Danny Granger and nothing a Zbo. But I know if I look up any Laker from 2000-2004 there W/s is probably above average, maybe every team should sign those players???

Anji wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Anji wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Oh and if you were surprised by Melo's win share stat, go look up Monta Ellis. He makes Carmelo look like the smartest decision-maker in the history of the game.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html

I do think there are some players whose contributions are not fully captured by the stats. Jared Jeffries is probably the best example. But I don't Melo is one of those players.

Monta Ellis plays for a team that has been to the playoffs once in the last 20-25 years........ his WIN SHARE IS LOW!!!!!!!!!!!! WHO KNEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You do not understand the win share statistic. The team's total wins are not put into the equation to calculate a player's individual win share stat. Likewise, specific players' win share stats tend to be pretty stable even when they switch from bad to good teams. Go look at Kevin Love's win share stats from when the T-Wolves were terrible.

When I look up W/S I don't see anything. I don't see anything about Monta, nothing about Danny Granger and nothing a Zbo. But I know if I look up any Laker from 2000-2004 there W/s is probably above average, maybe every team should sign those players???

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:GEEZ!!! The Win Share stats aren't even close. It's no contest. I actually didn't expect it to be that bad. Of Course this year is really bad for Melo, but still...

Kobe    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
        114.4 	46.9 	161.3 	.186
Melo    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
     	37.9 	21.4 	59.2 	.126

.126 for the WS/48 is above average though. (The league average is .100.) So it's not like the numbers are saying Melo is a bad player - just that he's nothing special.

People tend to give way too much focus on point per game when evaluating players - and then flashiness helps some players too. The way I look at it is that a team is going to get about 85 shots a game. You need as many of them to be high percentage shots as possible if you want to have a good offensive team. That means taking high percentage shots and creating high percentage shots for teammates. Every time a player shoots a contested fade-away with 16 left on the shot clock, it's just a waste of one of those 85 shots.

Bonn, thanks thats an interesting sight. Still dont understand Win Shares but I will read more about them.

The numbers I do understand all still looks almost exact with Melo being a more efficient rebounder and Kobe being a more efficient passer.
TS%

Kobe = 55%
Melo = 54%

eFG%

Kobe = 48%
Melo = 47%

I am glad you got Nixluva excited about Win Shares though he has no idea what it means

Do you understand Win Shares? Offensive / Defensive? If yes, can you give a really brief explanation?

It's basically an estimate of how many wins the player contributes to the team. If you look at Carmelo's WS raw score for the year, it's estimating that he's added 2.6 wins to the team's total this year - with 1.4 coming from his offensive production (OWS) and 1.2 (DWS) from his defensive production. Then the WS/48 is an estimate of how many wins per 48 minutes (or one team game) the player adds. The idea is a little confusing but basically for every 48 minutes he's on the court, Melo has contributed .112 wins to the team. Hypothetically, a player who was perfect - a player who completely controlled every aspect of the game and single-handedly won every game - would contribute 1 win per 48 minutes.

I am still confused ... sorry

How is that tied into the offensive production? based off what numbers?

Oh, OK. Basically what I wrote above is what the stat means conceptually. I think you're asking for what the formula is though. I've seen the formula before but it takes tons of pages to fully write out - it's not simple! But basically all of the columns of data you see in the section labelled "advanced" are taken into account - the player's shooting efficiency, rebounding percentages, assists, steals, blocks, etc.

It can't be those columns because then they would be relatively close. This is now a hanging chad to the argument at hand - haha.

I guess I would like to see the formula but I can't find it.

And by the way, I am not belittling the Stat - I am sure that it has significant value. I would just like to see it so that I can attempt to poke holes in it - so it does not kill my argument but if it proves correct, I will back off this stance that they are equally efficient (OFFENSIVELY!!) for their careers.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:GEEZ!!! The Win Share stats aren't even close. It's no contest. I actually didn't expect it to be that bad. Of Course this year is really bad for Melo, but still...

Kobe    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
        114.4 	46.9 	161.3 	.186
Melo    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
     	37.9 	21.4 	59.2 	.126

.126 for the WS/48 is above average though. (The league average is .100.) So it's not like the numbers are saying Melo is a bad player - just that he's nothing special.

People tend to give way too much focus on point per game when evaluating players - and then flashiness helps some players too. The way I look at it is that a team is going to get about 85 shots a game. You need as many of them to be high percentage shots as possible if you want to have a good offensive team. That means taking high percentage shots and creating high percentage shots for teammates. Every time a player shoots a contested fade-away with 16 left on the shot clock, it's just a waste of one of those 85 shots.

Bonn, thanks thats an interesting sight. Still dont understand Win Shares but I will read more about them.

The numbers I do understand all still looks almost exact with Melo being a more efficient rebounder and Kobe being a more efficient passer.
TS%

Kobe = 55%
Melo = 54%

eFG%

Kobe = 48%
Melo = 47%

I am glad you got Nixluva excited about Win Shares though he has no idea what it means

Do you understand Win Shares? Offensive / Defensive? If yes, can you give a really brief explanation?

It's basically an estimate of how many wins the player contributes to the team. If you look at Carmelo's WS raw score for the year, it's estimating that he's added 2.6 wins to the team's total this year - with 1.4 coming from his offensive production (OWS) and 1.2 (DWS) from his defensive production. Then the WS/48 is an estimate of how many wins per 48 minutes (or one team game) the player adds. The idea is a little confusing but basically for every 48 minutes he's on the court, Melo has contributed .112 wins to the team. Hypothetically, a player who was perfect - a player who completely controlled every aspect of the game and single-handedly won every game - would contribute 1 win per 48 minutes.

I am still confused ... sorry

How is that tied into the offensive production? based off what numbers?

Oh, OK. Basically what I wrote above is what the stat means conceptually. I think you're asking for what the formula is though. I've seen the formula before but it takes tons of pages to fully write out - it's not simple! But basically all of the columns of data you see in the section labelled "advanced" are taken into account - the player's shooting efficiency, rebounding percentages, assists, steals, blocks, etc.

It can't be those columns because then they would be relatively close. This is now a hanging chad to the argument at hand - haha.

I guess I would like to see the formula but I can't find it.

The difference in assists and turnovers is huge. That's probably the biggest factor separating Kobe and Melo and explaining the difference in their win shares.
Well here is some information on caluclating win shares:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
Here is the Wikipedia website on win shares:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_shares

For starters :

(from the Wiki page)

One criticism of this metric is that players who play for teams that win more games than expected, based on the Pythagorean expectation, receive more win shares than players whose team wins fewer games than expected. Since a team exceeding or falling short of its Pythagorean expectation is generally acknowledged as chance, some believe[who?] that credit should not be assigned purely based on team wins. However, team wins are the bedrock of the system, whose purpose is to assign credit for what happened. Win shares are intended to represent player value (what they were responsible for) rather than player ability (what the player's true skill level is).

mrKnickShot wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:GEEZ!!! The Win Share stats aren't even close. It's no contest. I actually didn't expect it to be that bad. Of Course this year is really bad for Melo, but still...

Kobe    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
        114.4 	46.9 	161.3 	.186
Melo    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
     	37.9 	21.4 	59.2 	.126

.126 for the WS/48 is above average though. (The league average is .100.) So it's not like the numbers are saying Melo is a bad player - just that he's nothing special.

People tend to give way too much focus on point per game when evaluating players - and then flashiness helps some players too. The way I look at it is that a team is going to get about 85 shots a game. You need as many of them to be high percentage shots as possible if you want to have a good offensive team. That means taking high percentage shots and creating high percentage shots for teammates. Every time a player shoots a contested fade-away with 16 left on the shot clock, it's just a waste of one of those 85 shots.

Bonn, thanks thats an interesting sight. Still dont understand Win Shares but I will read more about them.

The numbers I do understand all still looks almost exact with Melo being a more efficient rebounder and Kobe being a more efficient passer.
TS%

Kobe = 55%
Melo = 54%

eFG%

Kobe = 48%
Melo = 47%

I am glad you got Nixluva excited about Win Shares though he has no idea what it means

Do you understand Win Shares? Offensive / Defensive? If yes, can you give a really brief explanation?

It's basically an estimate of how many wins the player contributes to the team. If you look at Carmelo's WS raw score for the year, it's estimating that he's added 2.6 wins to the team's total this year - with 1.4 coming from his offensive production (OWS) and 1.2 (DWS) from his defensive production. Then the WS/48 is an estimate of how many wins per 48 minutes (or one team game) the player adds. The idea is a little confusing but basically for every 48 minutes he's on the court, Melo has contributed .112 wins to the team. Hypothetically, a player who was perfect - a player who completely controlled every aspect of the game and single-handedly won every game - would contribute 1 win per 48 minutes.

I am still confused ... sorry

How is that tied into the offensive production? based off what numbers?

Oh, OK. Basically what I wrote above is what the stat means conceptually. I think you're asking for what the formula is though. I've seen the formula before but it takes tons of pages to fully write out - it's not simple! But basically all of the columns of data you see in the section labelled "advanced" are taken into account - the player's shooting efficiency, rebounding percentages, assists, steals, blocks, etc.

It can't be those columns because then they would be relatively close. This is now a hanging chad to the argument at hand - haha.

I guess I would like to see the formula but I can't find it.

And by the way, I am not belittling the Stat - I am sure that it has significant value. I would just like to see it so that I can attempt to poke holes in it - so it does not kill my argument but if it proves correct, I will back off this stance that they are equally efficient (OFFENSIVELY!!) for their careers.

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:GEEZ!!! The Win Share stats aren't even close. It's no contest. I actually didn't expect it to be that bad. Of Course this year is really bad for Melo, but still...

Kobe    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
        114.4 	46.9 	161.3 	.186
Melo    OWS 	DWS 	WS 	WS/48
     	37.9 	21.4 	59.2 	.126

.126 for the WS/48 is above average though. (The league average is .100.) So it's not like the numbers are saying Melo is a bad player - just that he's nothing special.

People tend to give way too much focus on point per game when evaluating players - and then flashiness helps some players too. The way I look at it is that a team is going to get about 85 shots a game. You need as many of them to be high percentage shots as possible if you want to have a good offensive team. That means taking high percentage shots and creating high percentage shots for teammates. Every time a player shoots a contested fade-away with 16 left on the shot clock, it's just a waste of one of those 85 shots.

Bonn, thanks thats an interesting sight. Still dont understand Win Shares but I will read more about them.

The numbers I do understand all still looks almost exact with Melo being a more efficient rebounder and Kobe being a more efficient passer.
TS%

Kobe = 55%
Melo = 54%

eFG%

Kobe = 48%
Melo = 47%

I am glad you got Nixluva excited about Win Shares though he has no idea what it means

Do you understand Win Shares? Offensive / Defensive? If yes, can you give a really brief explanation?

It's basically an estimate of how many wins the player contributes to the team. If you look at Carmelo's WS raw score for the year, it's estimating that he's added 2.6 wins to the team's total this year - with 1.4 coming from his offensive production (OWS) and 1.2 (DWS) from his defensive production. Then the WS/48 is an estimate of how many wins per 48 minutes (or one team game) the player adds. The idea is a little confusing but basically for every 48 minutes he's on the court, Melo has contributed .112 wins to the team. Hypothetically, a player who was perfect - a player who completely controlled every aspect of the game and single-handedly won every game - would contribute 1 win per 48 minutes.

I am still confused ... sorry

How is that tied into the offensive production? based off what numbers?

Oh, OK. Basically what I wrote above is what the stat means conceptually. I think you're asking for what the formula is though. I've seen the formula before but it takes tons of pages to fully write out - it's not simple! But basically all of the columns of data you see in the section labelled "advanced" are taken into account - the player's shooting efficiency, rebounding percentages, assists, steals, blocks, etc.

It can't be those columns because then they would be relatively close. This is now a hanging chad to the argument at hand - haha.

I guess I would like to see the formula but I can't find it.

The difference in assists and turnovers is huge. That's probably the biggest factor separating Kobe and Melo and explaining the difference in their win shares.
Well here is some information on caluclating win shares:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
Here is the Wikipedia website on win shares:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_shares

For starters :

(from the Wiki page)

One criticism of this metric is that players who play for teams that win more games than expected, based on the Pythagorean expectation, receive more win shares than players whose team wins fewer games than expected. Since a team exceeding or falling short of its Pythagorean expectation is generally acknowledged as chance, some believe[who?] that credit should not be assigned purely based on team wins. However, team wins are the bedrock of the system, whose purpose is to assign credit for what happened. Win shares are intended to represent player value (what they were responsible for) rather than player ability (what the player's true skill level is).

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Knicksfan wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

nixluva wrote:It's clear as day!!! When Lin came on the scene and Melo was out of the picture, the team quickly came together, playing TEAM BALL. It wasn't about the opposition. It was about the style of play. The energy of the players. The thing is that they didn't play great offensively, but they were GREAT defensively. During the Steak the team was holding teams to about 93 pts per 100 possessions, which is excellent. Teams weren't shooting a high % either.

Now when you add to this equation that with Melo the pace slows down on both ends. We have less ball and player movement cuz as soon as Melo gets it the movement stops, so he can do his thing. It doesn't have to be like that. MDA tried to run plays where there was motion off of Melo post ups. It wasn't totally consistent, but I think if they worked on it and if Melo was committed to it they could find success.

The best example for Melo in my mind is Pierce. Pierce just fits in now. He's not trying to Dominate the game anymore. He does step up when it's needed and is very clutch. That's what Melo could do, but I think he still wants to be the ball dominant star.

Its all cause we are missing JJ. Especially the defensive numbers. If JJ comes back and we sit Melo, we can finally go back to playing 800 ball. Its as clear as day! I SEE THE LIGHT! AMEN!

And Melo will need to start thinking how to adjust to his next coach.

Nah, Melo will carry us to even greater heights than 800! You just know it. Who believes in a kid that just got promoted from the bench and got a group of backups to play better than expected when it obviously was the easy schedule. Melo has been in this league longer and arrived as a star, so of course he has this under control.

2-8 with him? Nah, that's just false.

hahaha - touche!

I guess we will see soon under the new coach how this will turn out.

Melo's been an inefficient chucker under all coaches. Why would it be any different under the next one?

it's funny Bonnie, when the Melo trade went down, you and I had an argument about if Melo made people around him (I said he didn't) and the best you came up with is that he was an all-star and so that meant defenses were focused on him so that made others better.

Are you sure that was me? I definitely don't remember saying that. I never supported the trade. So I can't imagine any context where I would have made that argument. Maybe you can ask the forum moderator to add a search function.

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Knicksfan wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

nixluva wrote:It's clear as day!!! When Lin came on the scene and Melo was out of the picture, the team quickly came together, playing TEAM BALL. It wasn't about the opposition. It was about the style of play. The energy of the players. The thing is that they didn't play great offensively, but they were GREAT defensively. During the Steak the team was holding teams to about 93 pts per 100 possessions, which is excellent. Teams weren't shooting a high % either.

Now when you add to this equation that with Melo the pace slows down on both ends. We have less ball and player movement cuz as soon as Melo gets it the movement stops, so he can do his thing. It doesn't have to be like that. MDA tried to run plays where there was motion off of Melo post ups. It wasn't totally consistent, but I think if they worked on it and if Melo was committed to it they could find success.

The best example for Melo in my mind is Pierce. Pierce just fits in now. He's not trying to Dominate the game anymore. He does step up when it's needed and is very clutch. That's what Melo could do, but I think he still wants to be the ball dominant star.

Its all cause we are missing JJ. Especially the defensive numbers. If JJ comes back and we sit Melo, we can finally go back to playing 800 ball. Its as clear as day! I SEE THE LIGHT! AMEN!

And Melo will need to start thinking how to adjust to his next coach.

Nah, Melo will carry us to even greater heights than 800! You just know it. Who believes in a kid that just got promoted from the bench and got a group of backups to play better than expected when it obviously was the easy schedule. Melo has been in this league longer and arrived as a star, so of course he has this under control.

2-8 with him? Nah, that's just false.

hahaha - touche!

I guess we will see soon under the new coach how this will turn out.

Melo's been an inefficient chucker under all coaches. Why would it be any different under the next one?

it's funny Bonnie, when the Melo trade went down, you and I had an argument about if Melo made people around him (I said he didn't) and the best you came up with is that he was an all-star and so that meant defenses were focused on him so that made others better.

Are you sure that was me? I definitely don't remember saying that. I never supported the trade. So I can't imagine any context where I would have made that argument. Maybe you can ask the forum moderator to add a search function.

it was you.