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A lot of this is pure luck
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mrKnickShot
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2/28/2012  10:14 PM
Everyone keeps talking about the "amnesty" being part of the luck.

I think that it can potentially come back to kill us! Especially if Amare continues his alarming decline.

AUTOADVERT
nixluva
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2/28/2012  10:26 PM
I'm trying to point out a clear distinction here in this story. The only purely lucky aspect was Shumps injury. The selection of Lin itself wasn't just pure luck. They made a deliberate choice based on real BB rationale. Lin's game fit what they wanted in a PG.

Lin wasn't some no talent scrub we picked up just to have a warm practice body. The kid was literally on Glen and MDA's list of players they had interest in. that's the reason they jumped on Lin once he became available. Many of us also felt the kid was worth a look.

Look there are a TON of undrafted PG's and guys playing in the D League that we could've chose from. out of all the possible selections they took Lin. WHY? They liked his potential as a player and why not take a kid that just might show you something? If you take a player late in the draft, you don't know if he's gonna pan out, but you look for certain skills you like and that's what they did with Lin. That's not "pure luck"! That's making an educated guess on a players skills that you evaluated and they turn up to be right. There's a difference.

I just give a little bit of credit to a GM that actually looks around for hidden gems and from the way it was described Glen actually put some thought into what would ordinarily be a non-consequential signing. He didn't take it like that. He kept in mind kids that they actually had interest in, in the past.

If you read thru Glen's thinking process you can tell he didn't just sign a warm body when he went after Lin:

TORONTO -- During the Knicks’ rushed December training camp, interim general manager Glen Grunwald brought coach Mike D’Antoni into his office at their Greenburgh practice facility for daily meetings.

On the wall in Grunwald’s office is a greaseboard. During the frenzied free-agent period, the names of players put on waivers were listed on the board. Grunwald and D’Antoni discussed the players’ merits.

On Dec. 24, Jeremy Lin hit Grunwald’s greaseboard after he was cut by the Rockets. D’Antoni and Grunwald discussed Lin’s impressive pre-draft workout in Greenburgh on June 7, 2010, his penetration ability and knack for the pick and roll.

Grunwald had recommended bringing Lin in for training camp last season and earlier in December, but Golden State and Houston had gotten in the way.

“I remember Glen saying after Lin got waived, ‘He can run the pick and roll and be a playmaker better than anybody we had,’ ’’ D’Antoni recalled.

But the Knicks had enough point guards on the roster by then. In the season opener on Christmas Day, rookie Iman Shumpert sprained his knee and went out for at least two weeks.

The decision was made the next day when Grunwald told D’Antoni this was the Knicks’ chance to claim Lin — at least as a stopgap because his $788,000 contract wasn’t guaranteed. After 16 teams passed in waivers, Grunwald sprang.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/invisible_grunwald_is_knicks_man_T1QtfRdUbngoBThHgNwQGJ#ixzz1nPfMZJzv

mrKnickShot
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2/28/2012  10:38 PM
nixluva wrote:I'm trying to point out a clear distinction here in this story. The only purely lucky aspect was Shumps injury. The selection of Lin itself wasn't just pure luck. They made a deliberate choice based on real BB rationale. Lin's game fit what they wanted in a PG.

Lin wasn't some no talent scrub we picked up just to have a warm practice body. The kid was literally on Glen and MDA's list of players they had interest in. that's the reason they jumped on Lin once he became available. Many of us also felt the kid was worth a look.

Look there are a TON of undrafted PG's and guys playing in the D League that we could've chose from. out of all the possible selections they took Lin. WHY? They liked his potential as a player and why not take a kid that just might show you something? If you take a player late in the draft, you don't know if he's gonna pan out, but you look for certain skills you like and that's what they did with Lin. That's not "pure luck"! That's making an educated guess on a players skills that you evaluated and they turn up to be right. There's a difference.

I just give a little bit of credit to a GM that actually looks around for hidden gems and from the way it was described Glen actually put some thought into what would ordinarily be a non-consequential signing. He didn't take it like that. He kept in mind kids that they actually had interest in, in the past.

If you read thru Glen's thinking process you can tell he didn't just sign a warm body when he went after Lin:

TORONTO -- During the Knicks’ rushed December training camp, interim general manager Glen Grunwald brought coach Mike D’Antoni into his office at their Greenburgh practice facility for daily meetings.

On the wall in Grunwald’s office is a greaseboard. During the frenzied free-agent period, the names of players put on waivers were listed on the board. Grunwald and D’Antoni discussed the players’ merits.

On Dec. 24, Jeremy Lin hit Grunwald’s greaseboard after he was cut by the Rockets. D’Antoni and Grunwald discussed Lin’s impressive pre-draft workout in Greenburgh on June 7, 2010, his penetration ability and knack for the pick and roll.

Grunwald had recommended bringing Lin in for training camp last season and earlier in December, but Golden State and Houston had gotten in the way.

“I remember Glen saying after Lin got waived, ‘He can run the pick and roll and be a playmaker better than anybody we had,’ ’’ D’Antoni recalled.

But the Knicks had enough point guards on the roster by then. In the season opener on Christmas Day, rookie Iman Shumpert sprained his knee and went out for at least two weeks.

The decision was made the next day when Grunwald told D’Antoni this was the Knicks’ chance to claim Lin — at least as a stopgap because his $788,000 contract wasn’t guaranteed. After 16 teams passed in waivers, Grunwald sprang.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/invisible_grunwald_is_knicks_man_T1QtfRdUbngoBThHgNwQGJ#ixzz1nPfMZJzv


I give them both credit for positioning themselves to benefit from luck.

They also got Bibby because of all this and all that but Bibby sucks.

Luck is a good thing when it happens to you/us. The rest is not important and does not have to continuously be regurgitated.

knicks1248
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2/28/2012  10:52 PM
fishmike wrote:and its bad luck McDyess broke his knee, Sweetney couldnt stop eating, Glen Rice couldnt play PF and Gallo wasnt Michael Jordan out of the box.

EVERY winning team has luck, especially in the NBA where there are fewer players and the margin for unknown is so much greater than the other sports.

The Chandler move was great skill, because LUCK would have been sitting around hoping for Chris Paul. Instead they had the balls to waive Billups to add a defensive anchor who would have a bigger impact anyway. Give them credit for that. If Douglas played as well as he did last year when he was a spot starter we would have been fine. His play was dismal however.

TD..lost aleast 5 games for us single handed

ES
Nalod
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2/28/2012  11:57 PM
FeltonandAmare wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This was a shtty team going nowhere that executed a lousy trade(Carmelo) got lucky with amnesty(Chandler) and from the looks of it signed a 100mm contract for a guy who played up to it for 60 games last year and now we may be up the creek. Waiting for Baron Davis to save this team--never ever wouldve happened. Both Lin(especially ) and Novak helped save this train luck and to be very honest it was luck. Now guys like dantoni grunwald etc... will be compensated heavily for this luck!!

What a joke. Haters of the Melo trade will go to any length to discredit it! The fact is that we got the 2 best players from that trade. Melo and Chauncey which we turned into Chandler. Melo and Chandler are key ingredients in our success and that's no luck. The Nuggets meanwhile will be a lottery team for years to come. Haters get over yourselves and admit you were wrong. The Knicks got 2 great players and have replinshed their bench much more quickly than you ever expected! YOU WERE WRONG!

Nuggs record over the same time is much better than Knicks.

Haters need only point to Wins and Losses.

On paper we got the better of the deal, but whose to really say?

Wins and losses.

We have upside and what briggs is saying is without luck, the team did a poor job.

He has a point.

We had lady luck shine on us.

CrushAlot
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2/29/2012  12:07 AM
FeltonandAmare wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This was a shtty team going nowhere that executed a lousy trade(Carmelo) got lucky with amnesty(Chandler) and from the looks of it signed a 100mm contract for a guy who played up to it for 60 games last year and now we may be up the creek. Waiting for Baron Davis to save this team--never ever wouldve happened. Both Lin(especially ) and Novak helped save this train luck and to be very honest it was luck. Now guys like dantoni grunwald etc... will be compensated heavily for this luck!!

What a joke. Haters of the Melo trade will go to any length to discredit it! The fact is that we got the 2 best players from that trade. Melo and Chauncey which we turned into Chandler. Melo and Chandler are key ingredients in our success and that's no luck. The Nuggets meanwhile will be a lottery team for years to come. Haters get over yourselves and admit you were wrong. The Knicks got 2 great players and have replinshed their bench much more quickly than you ever expected! YOU WERE WRONG!


If you don't grade a trade based on the teams pre and post trade success how do you judge it? The Nuggets have the better record since the trade and it is reported that they have much better chemistry as well.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
nixluva
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2/29/2012  3:27 AM
As others have said, when you're doing the right things, making smart moves and diligently handling your job, good things tend to happen. Things looked bad but everyone knew what the biggest problem was. Glen and MDA brought in Lin to provide cover but they could just have easily went with another vet like Bibby but they didn't.

Glen used his gut and his brain and took a chance on a kid with potential and it paid off. If Lin wasn't seen as a kid with potential why pick him up? There was no reason to pick Lin over the myriad of other guards unless his skills made sense for this team and MDA! You have Glen's rationale in PRINT!!! That's the epitome of what a GM is supposed to do! Find talent that fits what his coach needs to succeed.

Funny but when the Spurs find talent in the late picks or off the scrap heap they're shrewd talent evaluators but Knicks do it and it's only dumb luck! You make your own luck.

franco12
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2/29/2012  8:21 AM
fishmike wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:You need to be positioned correctly to be lucky.

this is certainly true, but the lin situation is one of the most astounding diamond in the rough finds of all time.

there's luck and there's Luck.

Yes. Thats Hollywood worthy.

I know that people on this board give credit to MDA for seeing his talents but I think that he sh1t gold and who cares - I am just happy it happened to us.


I agree... But I do want MDA to develop his talents. Perfect fit

Linsanity doesn't exist without MDA. Any other system, Lin flounders, makes zero impact and is looking for a job amongst us smucks.

I'll criticize MDA for being inflexible at times, and for not trying Lin sooner- but I don't see how Lin becomes the sensation he is without MDA.

mrKnickShot
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2/29/2012  8:27 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/29/2012  10:06 AM
franco12 wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:You need to be positioned correctly to be lucky.

this is certainly true, but the lin situation is one of the most astounding diamond in the rough finds of all time.

there's luck and there's Luck.

Yes. Thats Hollywood worthy.

I know that people on this board give credit to MDA for seeing his talents but I think that he sh1t gold and who cares - I am just happy it happened to us.


I agree... But I do want MDA to develop his talents. Perfect fit

Linsanity doesn't exist without MDA. Any other system, Lin flounders, makes zero impact and is looking for a job amongst us smucks.

I'll criticize MDA for being inflexible at times, and for not trying Lin sooner- but I don't see how Lin becomes the sensation he is without MDA.

I completely disagree - Lin is good because of Lin. Nash is good because of Nash. Being in a system that suits them helps them cater to their strengths but no really good player is really good only because he is playing for a specific coach.

Nalod
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2/29/2012  9:19 AM
IF Nash is Jesus then MDA is his father........
martin
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2/29/2012  11:48 AM
mrKnickShot wrote:
franco12 wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:You need to be positioned correctly to be lucky.

this is certainly true, but the lin situation is one of the most astounding diamond in the rough finds of all time.

there's luck and there's Luck.

Yes. Thats Hollywood worthy.

I know that people on this board give credit to MDA for seeing his talents but I think that he sh1t gold and who cares - I am just happy it happened to us.


I agree... But I do want MDA to develop his talents. Perfect fit

Linsanity doesn't exist without MDA. Any other system, Lin flounders, makes zero impact and is looking for a job amongst us smucks.

I'll criticize MDA for being inflexible at times, and for not trying Lin sooner- but I don't see how Lin becomes the sensation he is without MDA.

I completely disagree - Lin is good because of Lin. Nash is good because of Nash. Being in a system that suits them helps them cater to their strengths but no really good player is really good only because he is playing for a specific coach.

this is true, but Nash only finally became great when he was playing for a specific coach.

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Bippity10
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2/29/2012  12:42 PM
mrKnickShot wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:Luck is always a part of it. How many titles would San Antonio have won if David Robinson had not gotten hurt the same year Duncan entered the draft. Philly picked van Horn number 2 that year. IF Robinson doesn't go down maybe Philly is looked at as this great organization while San Antonio is not.

Luck is always a part.

Didn't Boston have the worst record that year and got screwed in the draft? Dropped from 1 to 8 and took Ron Mercer or Antoine Walker ... thought it went down that way. Pitino's face was priceless.

Edit: Boston ended up with 3 and 6. Billups/Mercer. Ouch!!

Point is that if DRob does not go down then Santonio is never in the lottery and Duncan never joins their team. Luck

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Bonn1997
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2/29/2012  1:25 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/29/2012  1:26 PM
Bippity10 wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:Luck is always a part of it. How many titles would San Antonio have won if David Robinson had not gotten hurt the same year Duncan entered the draft. Philly picked van Horn number 2 that year. IF Robinson doesn't go down maybe Philly is looked at as this great organization while San Antonio is not.

Luck is always a part.

Didn't Boston have the worst record that year and got screwed in the draft? Dropped from 1 to 8 and took Ron Mercer or Antoine Walker ... thought it went down that way. Pitino's face was priceless.

Edit: Boston ended up with 3 and 6. Billups/Mercer. Ouch!!

Point is that if DRob does not go down then Santonio is never in the lottery and Duncan never joins their team. Luck


It's luck and planning. The Knicks probably would have forced DRob to return early and/or starphucked and we would have finished with the 7th or 9th pick. Or it might have been one of the many years where we traded our pick away.
BRIGGS
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2/29/2012  1:40 PM
FeltonandAmare wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This was a shtty team going nowhere that executed a lousy trade(Carmelo) got lucky with amnesty(Chandler) and from the looks of it signed a 100mm contract for a guy who played up to it for 60 games last year and now we may be up the creek. Waiting for Baron Davis to save this team--never ever wouldve happened. Both Lin(especially ) and Novak helped save this train luck and to be very honest it was luck. Now guys like dantoni grunwald etc... will be compensated heavily for this luck!!

What a joke. Haters of the Melo trade will go to any length to discredit it! The fact is that we got the 2 best players from that trade. Melo and Chauncey which we turned into Chandler. Melo and Chandler are key ingredients in our success and that's no luck. The Nuggets meanwhile will be a lottery team for years to come. Haters get over yourselves and admit you were wrong. The Knicks got 2 great players and have replinshed their bench much more quickly than you ever expected! YOU WERE WRONG!

Ill be honest--I think Steve Novak has had more impact on W-L than Carmelo Anthony this year. He's been the quiet savior for this team beyond Lin.

What I want to see out of Melo and Amare is to combine FGA's @ 50% with a good PG. They need to step up. This team should be real good right now--not being saved by a Steve Novak or needing Lin to score 29. But make no mistake this team was saved by luck. A few non injuries and we are in oblivion right now.

RIP Crushalot😞
mrKnickShot
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2/29/2012  2:22 PM
Bippity10 wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:Luck is always a part of it. How many titles would San Antonio have won if David Robinson had not gotten hurt the same year Duncan entered the draft. Philly picked van Horn number 2 that year. IF Robinson doesn't go down maybe Philly is looked at as this great organization while San Antonio is not.

Luck is always a part.

Didn't Boston have the worst record that year and got screwed in the draft? Dropped from 1 to 8 and took Ron Mercer or Antoine Walker ... thought it went down that way. Pitino's face was priceless.

Edit: Boston ended up with 3 and 6. Billups/Mercer. Ouch!!

Point is that if DRob does not go down then Santonio is never in the lottery and Duncan never joins their team. Luck

Yup. Exactly - the fix was in. I saw DRob walking around just fine in Vegas during that time.

mrKnickShot
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2/29/2012  2:26 PM
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
franco12 wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:You need to be positioned correctly to be lucky.

this is certainly true, but the lin situation is one of the most astounding diamond in the rough finds of all time.

there's luck and there's Luck.

Yes. Thats Hollywood worthy.

I know that people on this board give credit to MDA for seeing his talents but I think that he sh1t gold and who cares - I am just happy it happened to us.


I agree... But I do want MDA to develop his talents. Perfect fit

Linsanity doesn't exist without MDA. Any other system, Lin flounders, makes zero impact and is looking for a job amongst us smucks.

I'll criticize MDA for being inflexible at times, and for not trying Lin sooner- but I don't see how Lin becomes the sensation he is without MDA.

I completely disagree - Lin is good because of Lin. Nash is good because of Nash. Being in a system that suits them helps them cater to their strengths but no really good player is really good only because he is playing for a specific coach.

this is true, but Nash only finally became great when he was playing for a specific coach.

True.

Same for Kobe, Jordan, PPierce and many players to different extents. Many coaches have positive effect on players - the marriage is important especially when it comes to style and philosophy and how it benefits a players talents.

But great players will always shine. Sometimes more, sometimes less ...

mrKnickShot
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2/29/2012  2:27 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:Luck is always a part of it. How many titles would San Antonio have won if David Robinson had not gotten hurt the same year Duncan entered the draft. Philly picked van Horn number 2 that year. IF Robinson doesn't go down maybe Philly is looked at as this great organization while San Antonio is not.

Luck is always a part.

Didn't Boston have the worst record that year and got screwed in the draft? Dropped from 1 to 8 and took Ron Mercer or Antoine Walker ... thought it went down that way. Pitino's face was priceless.

Edit: Boston ended up with 3 and 6. Billups/Mercer. Ouch!!

Point is that if DRob does not go down then Santonio is never in the lottery and Duncan never joins their team. Luck


It's luck and planning. The Knicks probably would have forced DRob to return early and/or starphucked and we would have finished with the 7th or 9th pick. Or it might have been one of the many years where we traded our pick away.

Haha - right. Chicago would have had are pick and we woulda had Scott Williams.

Bippity10
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2/29/2012  4:02 PM
mrKnickShot wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
Bippity10 wrote:Luck is always a part of it. How many titles would San Antonio have won if David Robinson had not gotten hurt the same year Duncan entered the draft. Philly picked van Horn number 2 that year. IF Robinson doesn't go down maybe Philly is looked at as this great organization while San Antonio is not.

Luck is always a part.

Didn't Boston have the worst record that year and got screwed in the draft? Dropped from 1 to 8 and took Ron Mercer or Antoine Walker ... thought it went down that way. Pitino's face was priceless.

Edit: Boston ended up with 3 and 6. Billups/Mercer. Ouch!!

Point is that if DRob does not go down then Santonio is never in the lottery and Duncan never joins their team. Luck


It's luck and planning. The Knicks probably would have forced DRob to return early and/or starphucked and we would have finished with the 7th or 9th pick. Or it might have been one of the many years where we traded our pick away.

Haha - right. Chicago would have had are pick and we woulda had Scott Williams.

The funniest part about all this is that it is 100% accurate. Pretty much describes the Layden/Thomas years.

I just hope that people will like me
nixluva
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2/29/2012  7:42 PM
martin wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
franco12 wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
mrKnickShot wrote:You need to be positioned correctly to be lucky.

this is certainly true, but the lin situation is one of the most astounding diamond in the rough finds of all time.

there's luck and there's Luck.

Yes. Thats Hollywood worthy.

I know that people on this board give credit to MDA for seeing his talents but I think that he sh1t gold and who cares - I am just happy it happened to us.


I agree... But I do want MDA to develop his talents. Perfect fit

Linsanity doesn't exist without MDA. Any other system, Lin flounders, makes zero impact and is looking for a job amongst us smucks.

I'll criticize MDA for being inflexible at times, and for not trying Lin sooner- but I don't see how Lin becomes the sensation he is without MDA.

I completely disagree - Lin is good because of Lin. Nash is good because of Nash. Being in a system that suits them helps them cater to their strengths but no really good player is really good only because he is playing for a specific coach.

this is true, but Nash only finally became great when he was playing for a specific coach.

Also it's a documented fact that good PG's improve under MDA. It's not like there isn't clear statistical evidence to support this claim. YES, Nash was a talented player before MDA, but he became and MVP under MDA's guidance. Lin was almost out of the league, but once he got a chance to play in the system for our D league team he was able to really get comfortable. He spent about 5 days with them and played in2 games and when Lin came back he said he really had a good feel for what he needed to do. The rest is history.

Not that it really matters how it happened, but Lin was brought in for the right reasons. When your GM is making good decisions with regard to player personnel, there's more of a likelyhood that something good can happen. Just like the Spurs make good decisions on players they pick up and in a sense make their own luck.

GustavBahler
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2/29/2012  11:19 PM
"You've got your chocolate in my peanut butter!" Yeah, I believe one fed off of the other but its the result that counts. D'Antoni gives his players freedom that most players enjoy, some make the most of it, some abuse the privilege.

He took advantage of an opportunity and that's what you want a coach to do.

I still believe in theory that his system can be effective with the right parts but its never been so much about the system but how dogmatic he can be about letting shooters air it out and not emphasizing shot discipline enough. If it isn't part of the system then we shouldn't be seeing it on the floor as much as we have. I think the team as a whole has improved in that department. Especially since TD was finally (and mercifully) benched.

Douglas was the starting PG and he set the tone and it was a lousy tone, regardless of how hard he played. Lin has them taking better shots, if there ever comes a time when that isn't the case I hope MDA will point it out. Its what contending teams do.

A lot of this is pure luck

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