technomaster wrote:Another explanation is that Lin is an extremely unlikely outlier, the likes of which has never been seen before. (He should be featured in a new chapter by Malcolm Gladwell for the next edition of his book!)Sites like draftexpress and nbadraft.net assess players as objectively as possible. They identified shooting as a hole in his game (most of his scoring does come near the basket), and his quickness/athleticism/wingspan are less than ideal. Plus he played in a less-than ideal program, facing lower end competition.
Pro sports scouts tend to favor players (regardless of sport) that exhibit the right physical traits. If a player looks the part, it sometimes outweighs the mental component. It's tough to measure sports IQ, particularly in team sports.
In 5 games, Lin has exceeded all expectations... he's better than he ever has been at any level. It's not something that could have been easily predicted.
Hoops expert, Ed Weiland had Jeremy Lin as the #2 point guard in the draft behind John Wall. Weiland measured Lin objectively as possible and Lin's RSB40 and 2pt FG% numbers were off the charts which is the best indicator of NBA athleticism and success for an NBA guard. And again his wingspan is about average for an NBA point guard not sure where this myth that it's below average comes from.
Ed Weiland:
"The RSB40 is combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes and is a number I use to assign athleticism to a guard. The steals are the only stat in that number that is typically associated with guards. The reason I add in rebounds and blocks is it separates the guys who really dominate from those who are just ball hawks. Historically a high RSB40 has been a very good thing, while a low number has been a red flag for guards who still meet the necessary scoring, passing and efficiency criteria for prospects."
"Jeremy Lin, G Harvard
by Ed Weiland
Any team looking to find a starting PG in the 2010 NBA draft had best win the lottery and get the top pick. A year after the legendary PG draft of 2009, the pickings for playmakers are going to be thin. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a player or two who surprise the experts though.
The best candidate to pull off such a surprise might be Harvard’s Jeremy Lin. The reason is two numbers Lin posted, 2-point FG pct and RSB40. Lin was at .598 and 9.7. This is impressive on both counts. These numbers show NBA athleticism better than any other, because a high score in both shows dominance at the college level on both ends of the court. Here is a list of recent college PGs who topped .540 and 9.0:"
...
"But Lin put up his numbers in the Ivy League, while most of the players on the list played in major conferences. This is a big deal. For players from a small conference the jump to the NBA is a lot tougher. They don’t get the exposure, unless their team makes the tournament. They need to be that much better statistically to stand out. Lin made his mark in the preseason when he averaged 23.3 PPG while shooting 63% in a 3-game stretch against UConn, BC and Georgetown. Typically players from small colleges see their numbers dip, sometimes drastically, when stepping up in competition. That Lin was able to not only be competitive, but excel in these situations is impressive. What I like to do with small college players is compare their numbers to those of successful small college players from the past. Here’s a list of college PGs who have successfully made the jump from small conferences to the NBA and their senior year stats:"
...
"I like Jeremy Lin as a PG prospect, but he isn’t without flaws and concerns. He isn’t a great passer yet and he didn’t score as frequently as a prospect from a small college should. Both numbers are in the grey area though. They’re lower than I’d like them to be, but not low enough that I’d say Jeremy Lin was doomed as a prospect. That being noted, he does bring that combination of a high 2-point pct. and RSB40, which has been a very, very good thing for aspiring NBA PGs to have on their college report card in past years. This is a weak year for both PGs and combo guards. After John Wall there are no sure things. Jeremy Lin might be the #2 PG available in this draft. He looks to me like a sleeper in the mold of George Hill. He appears to have the skills to become at least a usable combo guard. If he can get the passing thing down and handle the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star."
http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487
