fishmike wrote:

Rookie wrote:

fishmike wrote:

CashMoney wrote: Year 3 of what seemed like an impossible rebuilding plan in 2008 has been a success and at the very least New York will have something to build on for next season.

these playoffs are so important. I hate having Boston. I think its the worst draw for us to advance, something we really need to do.

I think the big thing is if we have a big series from a couple guys... maybe Douglas, or even a guy like Turiaf, I'm looking at a couple nice young role players to package w/ Billups's huge expiring contract (Assuming we pick up option) for some depth around Melo and Amare.

get me Okafor

I would do that, even if CP3 doesnt come back.

Billups, Fields and Turiaf for OK4 and Ariza. Maybe give them some cash. That gives NO a ton of flexibility moving forward. They are paying Ariza/OK4 about $18mm a year plus for the next 3-4 years. Its too much for them. This would save them a ton of money and Billups could move to SG at this point no problem.

Knicks get EXACTLY the kind of role players they need to be elite
PG Douglas
SG Ariza
SF Melo
PF Stat
C Ok4
whole lotta defense and rebounding around Melo/Stat... two of the top 10 scorers in the league.

I would be pretty pumped about that.

Maybe draft a PG and use the MLE on a guy like Reggie Evans or even Michael Redd

I'd actually sign on off that because Ariza's a perfect fit for SG in D'Antoni's offense and I like Okafor for rebounding/defense, but I'd worry that it still doesn't have depth and that the Knicks have absolutely no flexibility if they do that deal. That's not a huge concern, but the depth is especially if Ronnie's not there. Behind that you'd have a 1st round pick, whatever MLE guy you could sign, and the players you'd have assuming nobody expires are Williams, Williams, Walker and Carter, so you'd basically have to go 2/2 on a Center and a PG for this to work, but it could...

nyk4ever wrote:

PhilinLA wrote:I think Douglas could be the starting "point" guard, if they run the O More through Melo going forward and Douglas just brings it up, drives or waits for the kick out pass. It's all a matter of getting the right big. Kaman, Okafor, Camby or even Nazr could work with these two forwards. I have some hopes for Jerome Jordan as he has the tools to defend, rebound and run the floor. But he'd have to be part of a rotation with a player we don't have yet.

woah - blast from the past. what's up phil?

nyvector16 wrote:Don't worry...
If the Knicks lose in Rd 1 after not being int he playoffs for 7 years, some people will call for D'Antoni's head.

But if.. or more likely WHEN Denver loses to OKC in rd 1 they will be afforded any and every excuse in the book.

You know, George Karl must own the record for front running teams getting bombed in the first round.

PhilinLA wrote:

nyk4ever wrote:

PhilinLA wrote:I think Douglas could be the starting "point" guard, if they run the O More through Melo going forward and Douglas just brings it up, drives or waits for the kick out pass. It's all a matter of getting the right big. Kaman, Okafor, Camby or even Nazr could work with these two forwards. I have some hopes for Jerome Jordan as he has the tools to defend, rebound and run the floor. But he'd have to be part of a rotation with a player we don't have yet.

woah - blast from the past. what's up phil?

All good things. And you?

same.. good to see you back here, it's been a while.

Bonn1997 wrote:

eViL wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Juice wrote:Basically Anthony bought into chucking 3s and he's having success but like all numbers they'll come to their eventuality. Anthony much like this team will live and die by the 3 he won't be immune to it.

yes.. you nailed. MDA just said "hey Melo.. all I care about is you chucking up 3s"

Melo's career is 2.5 threes a game. With the Knicks he's shooting 4.5

TWO more 3 pt attempts a game above his career and he's shooting > 40%

Great analysis

I dont even love MDA. He's a good coach in this league and has proven that. He's been OK with the Knicks. Some good, some bad. He was handed an entirely new roster with different kind of players than his previous team with 8 weeks in the season and after some very poor play the Knicks win 7 in a row and are playing very good ball heading into the playoffs and still you guys just make up crap about how he coaches and ignore anything based on reality. I dont get the hate. Is it the stache?

It's hate to expect Carmelo's 3 pt % to return closer to his career average? It sounds like blind optimism not to.

really? it's that extreme? it couldn't have anything to do with any other factors? it's impossible that his 3pt attempts in Denver were more of the contested, end-of-the-shot-clock variety, whereas here, he's pulling while uncontested and in the flow? his 3pt percentage is going to be what it is for his entire career? no chance it improves and stays there?

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean
People always over-interpret surprising statistics based on small samples. If he keeps this % up for a year and half I'll be happily shocked.

Bonn,
Some suggestive evidence that it may be the system that's responsible for Anthony's increase in 3pt %, rather than a statistically insignificant blip subject to regression to the mean (taken from homeoftheknicks.com poster Gallo'sHangtime):

I was looking to see any affect that D'Antoni's offense had on three-point shooting percentages, so I checked out the three lead guys in 3PA during the D'Antoni Era in PHX. I expected the kind of results I saw from Barbosa, and was a bit surprised at Bell, but Nash absolutely shocked me.

Here's the data I compiled:

[OK, the table didn't show up when I initially posted this, so here's a link:

http://www.homeoftheknicks.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5163&pid=79908&st=60&#entry79908]

The MDA system essentially turned these guys into the ultra-rare high-volume sharpshooters. It's one thing to shoot well, but it's another thing to shoot well and do so over a huge volume.

The MDA system took these three guys and not only increased their shooting percentages, but did so while pushing their attempts up to very high levels, which is almost unbelievable.

I never expected to see those results with Nash, and that was the definitive data I needed to tell me that there is absolutely something to this system, and not a small thing - these wide open looks that it constantly creates can translate directly to performance. He took a guy who was already one of the better shooters in the league - someone that we as fans would say "it's Nash, he was always good anyway, it didn't do much for him", and made him dramatically better. Those numbers without MDA are very good, but the numbers with him are at a legend level.

As soon as D'Antoni left he's regressed right back to what he shot before he joined MDA in PHX. It's pretty amazing.

markvmc wrote:Bonn,
Some suggestive evidence that it may be the system that's responsible for Anthony's increase in 3pt %, rather than a statistically insignificant blip subject to regression to the mean (taken from homeoftheknicks.com poster Gallo'sHangtime):

I was looking to see any affect that D'Antoni's offense had on three-point shooting percentages, so I checked out the three lead guys in 3PA during the D'Antoni Era in PHX. I expected the kind of results I saw from Barbosa, and was a bit surprised at Bell, but Nash absolutely shocked me.

Here's the data I compiled:

[OK, the table didn't show up when I initially posted this, so here's a link:

http://www.homeoftheknicks.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5163&pid=79908&st=60&#entry79908]

The MDA system essentially turned these guys into the ultra-rare high-volume sharpshooters. It's one thing to shoot well, but it's another thing to shoot well and do so over a huge volume.

The MDA system took these three guys and not only increased their shooting percentages, but did so while pushing their attempts up to very high levels, which is almost unbelievable.

I never expected to see those results with Nash, and that was the definitive data I needed to tell me that there is absolutely something to this system, and not a small thing - these wide open looks that it constantly creates can translate directly to performance. He took a guy who was already one of the better shooters in the league - someone that we as fans would say "it's Nash, he was always good anyway, it didn't do much for him", and made him dramatically better. Those numbers without MDA are very good, but the numbers with him are at a legend level.

As soon as D'Antoni left he's regressed right back to what he shot before he joined MDA in PHX. It's pretty amazing.

Good stuff. I read that forum from time to time, don't post there anymore. I had no idea you were also GHT over there.
Yes, I agree - MDA's sytem makes good shooter great and it makes great shooter uber-elite. People who rant incessantly about the teams taking more threes can't see the impact of how much more efficient those threes are w/o this type of data. (Though I am not completely sure they would see it, even with it).

The wild thing is that we're not even seeing the full system cuz we don't have the PG to run it, but still the numbers don't lie. Melo is blossoming in this system. He's becoming more efficient, which was the one major knock that some had against him along with sharing the ball and defense. Melo is taking on all of those concerns and I think that's one of the reasons we're going to be tough in the playoffs. He's shown that he can be Elite level when he wants to and I think he really wants to. The thing that opened my eyes was when we beat the Heat and Melo and STAT closed the game with great defense. That's the kind of stuff we can look forward to.

markvmc wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

eViL wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Juice wrote:Basically Anthony bought into chucking 3s and he's having success but like all numbers they'll come to their eventuality. Anthony much like this team will live and die by the 3 he won't be immune to it.

yes.. you nailed. MDA just said "hey Melo.. all I care about is you chucking up 3s"

Melo's career is 2.5 threes a game. With the Knicks he's shooting 4.5

TWO more 3 pt attempts a game above his career and he's shooting > 40%

Great analysis

I dont even love MDA. He's a good coach in this league and has proven that. He's been OK with the Knicks. Some good, some bad. He was handed an entirely new roster with different kind of players than his previous team with 8 weeks in the season and after some very poor play the Knicks win 7 in a row and are playing very good ball heading into the playoffs and still you guys just make up crap about how he coaches and ignore anything based on reality. I dont get the hate. Is it the stache?

It's hate to expect Carmelo's 3 pt % to return closer to his career average? It sounds like blind optimism not to.

really? it's that extreme? it couldn't have anything to do with any other factors? it's impossible that his 3pt attempts in Denver were more of the contested, end-of-the-shot-clock variety, whereas here, he's pulling while uncontested and in the flow? his 3pt percentage is going to be what it is for his entire career? no chance it improves and stays there?

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean
People always over-interpret surprising statistics based on small samples. If he keeps this % up for a year and half I'll be happily shocked.

Bonn,
Some suggestive evidence that it may be the system that's responsible for Anthony's increase in 3pt %, rather than a statistically insignificant blip subject to regression to the mean (taken from homeoftheknicks.com poster Gallo'sHangtime):

I was looking to see any affect that D'Antoni's offense had on three-point shooting percentages, so I checked out the three lead guys in 3PA during the D'Antoni Era in PHX. I expected the kind of results I saw from Barbosa, and was a bit surprised at Bell, but Nash absolutely shocked me.

Here's the data I compiled:

[OK, the table didn't show up when I initially posted this, so here's a link:

http://www.homeoftheknicks.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5163&pid=79908&st=60&#entry79908]

The MDA system essentially turned these guys into the ultra-rare high-volume sharpshooters. It's one thing to shoot well, but it's another thing to shoot well and do so over a huge volume.

The MDA system took these three guys and not only increased their shooting percentages, but did so while pushing their attempts up to very high levels, which is almost unbelievable.

I never expected to see those results with Nash, and that was the definitive data I needed to tell me that there is absolutely something to this system, and not a small thing - these wide open looks that it constantly creates can translate directly to performance. He took a guy who was already one of the better shooters in the league - someone that we as fans would say "it's Nash, he was always good anyway, it didn't do much for him", and made him dramatically better. Those numbers without MDA are very good, but the numbers with him are at a legend level.

As soon as D'Antoni left he's regressed right back to what he shot before he joined MDA in PHX. It's pretty amazing.

I definitely wouldn't completely dismiss your data but it's hard to reach any definitive conclusions from them. With Bell and Nash the increase was much smaller than with Carmelo, and with Barbosa the pre-MDA numbers were from just one year. None of them are huge seven year samples pre-MDA like Carmelo combined with a gigantic increase in 3Pt % from a very small sample (one-third of one season). I'd be more interested in a larger sample. It would probably be prohibitively time consuming but I'd be really interested to see the data for all the players he's coached, or perhaps all players who have played at least 100 games with him. With only 3 players, there's so much room for alternative interpretations.

You are consistently one of my favorite posters at this forum. Despite that I don't understand the upside of the trade that you did. Because Mike's system is so different, paying people what they are worth based on their current stats, can be a very dangerous thing to do.

1) MDA is not interested in a center trained to play traditional basketball. There are simply too many changes that need to be made berfore that player is able to function properly in MDA's system. Why pay top dollar for production that may not show up when Oka4 has difficulty adjusting to how MDA wants him to play. Its very hard to project what centers will fit Mike's system well. Thats why MDA generally doesn't want to bring in an established center with a high price tag.

2) I also don't see the attraction of Ariza for the Knicks over Fields. Mike's offense can't spread the floor without high percentage shooting. Ariza's unattractive 3 point and free throw shooting percentages are indications that he doesn't fit MDA's priorities for the shooting guard. His being good defensively is positive but that alone is simply not enough. Fields in one of those guys who will keep figuring out new ways to contribute. He reminds me of Hondo. You talk about his athleticism not being outstanding. But his endurance is outstanding. Thats how he manages to get so many rebounds by crashing the boards.

When you have a player who plays as well as Landry did in his first year, it may be very foolish to trade him now for a player like Ariza who doesn't have much upside from here. Do you really know what Landry's upside is in 2 or 3 years? What have I missed?