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weird stat article on Melo WSJ
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Nalod
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1/13/2011  11:42 AM
I would think ZDump would be an intersting study.

Guy fills up the stat sheet but is a bone head. Team does not succeed around a bone head.

Nate is a bone head.

For all his talent, is Melo?

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Andrew
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1/13/2011  11:46 AM
While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?
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Bonn1997
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1/13/2011  11:51 AM
Andrew wrote:While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?

People here go by the rule: "If the stat isn't perfect, it's useless. If there are any examples of players whose ratings are surprising, the stat is useless." It's like saying all blood testing for diseases is useless because occasionally the results come back wrong.
FistOfOakley
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1/13/2011  11:57 AM
just like in anything... if the statistic doesn't re-affirm your pre-conceived notions... it is wrong...

wins-produced does have a lot of limitations though...

BlueSeats
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1/13/2011  11:59 AM    LAST EDITED: 1/13/2011  12:00 PM
FWIW, using last year's stats, here we see that Melo ranks 4th in clutch time points scored, just behind Bron, Kobe, Dirk:

http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM

His FG% is not top of the list at .427, but it's better than Aldridge, Felton, Ray Allen, Ginobili, Wade, Duncan, Gasol, Garnett, Gay, Piere, Gallinari, Chandler, Parker, Durant, Crawford, etc.

http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT6.HTM

EwingsGlass
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1/13/2011  12:08 PM
The efficiency stats are misleading to the extent they do not take into account the circumstances that the statistics take place under.

For instance, a player that takes the last shot of each quarter is taking a very inefficient shot, but that shot is more often than not taken by the best player on the team. Even more important, the best player demands double teams and even triple teams to contain. That creates more "efficient" shots for teammates. Do you think Landry Fields gets as many layups w/o Amare on the court?

By comparison to one's teammates, the best player's shooting efficiency stats should be deflated, but you would expect that most top players would face the same "deflation" that is, comparing Melo to Landry Fields is unfair, but comparing Melo to Lebron is more accurate. Otherwise, by comparison, the best players efficiency ratings should be inflated by the usage rate and the assist rates.

So, this analysis of Melo vs Chandler or Fields is a bit skewed, but the analysis of Melo vs other "superstars" is a pretty accurate depiction. Compared to other superstars, Melo is offensively more inefficient based on his low effective field goal percentage (he is a terrible 3 pt shooter) and low assist percentage. And right now, his team gives up more points than they score while he is on the floor.

But if the average PER of an NBA player is 15, Melo is an above average player and Fields is a below average player.

Links to the advanced stats are below.

Carmelo Anthony
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01.html

Lebron James
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

Landry Fields
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fieldla01.html

You know I gonna spin wit it
fishmike
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1/13/2011  12:10 PM
TMS wrote:
knickstorrents wrote:Wins Produced is based on statistical analysis and regression based on stats that lead to wins. So what they do is analyze teams that win (e.g., Lakers, Jordan's Bulls, Celtics, etc) then analyze the players on those teams, and what stats those players had. They also look at losing teams and determine what types of players are on those teams, and the stats those players have.

It is also weighted by position, so that each position has an inherent break even point in terms of rebounds, points, steals, to's, etc where if you are below those thresholds then you are a detriment to your team. The breakeven point is determined by the other players in those positions that year.

That's how they come up with this statistic. This is not the only statistic that shows Carmelo to be not that great a player, but its the statistic that makes it clearest the wins he provides to a team.

so let me get this straight... Carmelo doesn't help teams win many games, but somehow he was just fortunate enough to catch on with a 17 win franchise on the severe upswing to 43 wins that same year & to a high of 54 wins & playoffs for 7 consecutive seasons & just sorta rode the coattails of his superstar teammates? wow. if y'all just don't like Melo, that's your choice but enough w/the ridiculous crap like this to try & justify it to the rest of us.

btw, if you could provide the full list of NBA players of this statistic, i would love to see it, just for entertainment purposes.


Was it all Melo that made the Nuggets better? Could it have anything to do with and upgrade in PG from Loriniza Harrington (out of league faster than Howard Eisley) to Andre Miller? Or having a healthy Marcus Camby (29 games vs 72 games) or Nene with a year experience? Or dumping Juwan Howard as a primary scorer?

People who are pining for Melo talk about him as a superstar, as a top 10 player and a build around guy. He's not and never has been. He's a 2nd tier complimentary player who puts up great scoring #s. He's made a few all star games and had one good playoff run. Melo is in the group of a pre injury Gilbert Arenas. Certainly an upper echelon player, but not a build around guy, and the effeciency stuff listed in this article illistrates that.

The problem is Carmelo is NOT Lebron or Wade. He's Chris Bosh. Is Melo even as good as Paul Pierce in his prime? He took a team to the ECF along w/ Antoine Walker for crying out loud.

Melo brings good things, and he's a good player, but he's not worth gutting a core of good young players (like the Knicks have) for. If Denver panicks and takes Curry/AR/Gallo for Melo then great. But if we are competing w/ the Nets offer we are talking liquidating Chander/Gallo/AR/Fields/Douglas and using Curry/Azu/Turiaf for cap relief to put together a good package for Melo with Harrington's crappy contract coming back. I'll pass.

Your looking at a Melo Knick team of:
C Amare
PF Al Harrington
SF Melo
SG Bill Walker
PG Felton
bench: Williams, Mason JR, Mosgov, Rautins, etc

Now your paying $37mm to Melo/Amare, you will need to resign Felton and your still the 3rd or 4th best team in the East.

I'll pass and keep the youth. Knicks are on pace to win 48 games and have shown they can beat good NBA teams (CHIx2, SA, OKC, NO, Den, etc)

Hey... if we get lucky and get him for a deal that leaves our core intact great. Thats not what the price is currently. Melo will never be an MVP caliber player. When Lebron was called out as an average defender he worked so hard he became all NBA defense. Why hasnt Melo done that?

I'm fine if we get him, just for a reasonable package. He's not a superstar.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
Vmart
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1/13/2011  12:17 PM
As long as the 6 wins come against Miami, 2 in the regular season and 4 in the playoffs I'm good. Amare and rest of the Knicks can bring in the other 54 wins.
Killa4luv
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1/13/2011  12:17 PM
BlueSeats wrote:FWIW, using last year's stats, here we see that Melo ranks 4th in clutch time points scored, just behind Bron, Kobe, Dirk:

http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM


These statistics, though not perfect, are more in line with what I see when I watch the games. Melo is clutch. He led the league in game winning shots a year or two ago. He plays big in the 4th. If you've ever seen him play you know this. If I read someone's statistical analyss that says otherwise, I don't believe it.

Likewise, if I read that Melo only makes a difference of +6 wins, I don't believe it. I know who plays on Denver, I've seen games, I know thats not just a little off base, but WAAAAAY off base. There may be something to the statistic that is valuable, but I don't know what it is, and I'm not particularly concerned. We need Melo to be contenders, period. To the extent that the article that started this thread has any validity, we should figure otu what that is, and address it. Its not a deal breaker or anything remotely close.

SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  12:33 PM
Andrew wrote:While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?

I don't think anyone is saying that Melo is the greatest player ever. But this stat is bogus. Look at Wade's and Durant's numbers. Reggie Miller probably comes out looking terrible with this metric too: 18 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, and 1 SPG

This metric doesn't take into account that Melo's the best perimeter scorer in the NBA outside of Durant. When he's on, you cannot stop him. Basketball Reference has him as the 17th most likely player in the NBA to be elected to the Hall of Fame

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

But I'll go back to the Durant example. In my book, he's the best player in the NBA today. I think he's awesome and the polish he has for his size and athletic gifts is unbelievable. Based on how this stat makes him look I don't put much emphasis in this stat.

And the othe roption, LeBron, he's on the best team in the league and is that team's best player. But because he's sacrificed stats for the success of the team, he sudenly appears to be about 75 percent as good as he was last year.

While I appreciate what this metric attempt to do, I think this regression model is seriously lacking.

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joec32033
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1/13/2011  12:36 PM
martin wrote:
knickstorrents wrote:Wins Produced is based on statistical analysis and regression based on stats that lead to wins. So what they do is analyze teams that win (e.g., Lakers, Jordan's Bulls, Celtics, etc) then analyze the players on those teams, and what stats those players had. They also look at losing teams and determine what types of players are on those teams, and the stats those players have.

It is also weighted by position, so that each position has an inherent break even point in terms of rebounds, points, steals, to's, etc where if you are below those thresholds then you are a detriment to your team. The breakeven point is determined by the other players in those positions that year.

That's how they come up with this statistic. This is not the only statistic that shows Carmelo to be not that great a player, but its the statistic that makes it clearest the wins he provides to a team.

OK thanks for the explanation.

Thanks for the explanation knickstorrents. I think that when calculating a team statistic, individual stats are meaningless. I think you have to take the team as a whole. I bet this team win statistic would be shown unreliable if you took KG's stat from Minny or Pay's from Memphis.

IMO, a much more effective way of calculating a winning team is by roles filled on that team. IMO, stats are dictated by a players role on his team. If a player has to score a lot for his team to be competitive but they still lose, then you plug in that player where the team isn't as dependent on his specific scoring the numbers would be quite different. IMO, looking back there are a few constants on every winning team.

-at least 2 dependable go to guys. Preferably complimentary, but in the right system that can be worked around with a 3rd complimentary go to player (Lakers had Shaq and Kobe and recently Kobe and Pau. Spurs have had Duncan and Parker. The Pistons had Rip and Chauncy but Rasheed complimented them very well. Miami had Wade and Shaq. KG/Allen/Pierce. Teams that lost (Philly with AI, Dallas with Dirk) didn't have those complimentary top 2 go to guys.

-a few guys who get heavy minutes able to defend. Preferably one in the post and one on the wing. Chauncy/Ben in Detroit. Kobe/Shaq, Kobe/Artest/Bynum. Wade/Shaq. Duncan/Bowen. The better and the higher quantity of guys who you have to defend (defense not dependent on a system but on individual skill) the better.

-a garbage man in the post who doesn't require the ball. Haslem in Miami. Perkins/Baby/KG to an extent in Boston. Wallace in Detroit. Bynum/Odom in LA. The Spurs make a living putting garbage men next to Duncan.

-a dependable bench. IMO, bench guys are usually the guys that are least consistent and/or less talented then the more consistent starters. You don't need a standout guy like Manu on the Spurs, but if you can get consistency from your first two guys off the bench, you can game plan not worrying about what the bench will give you or plugging in the 11th man and hoping he is on (as the Knicks do now).

-a coach employs a plan and trusts in his system and is not drawn into deviating from that. When was the last time guys Like Phil, Riles, Larry, Pop deviated from the system they installed as their team concept?

At least that is how I see it. I think player stats are generated by their role in their team's system. The term role player is thrown around a lot but every player is a role player. Kobe's role is to be the main option. Arrest's role is to defend. Pau's role is to be a post presence and rebound. Every player has a role and a player's stats usually reflect that role.

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martin
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1/13/2011  12:39 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:
Andrew wrote:While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?

I don't think anyone is saying that Melo is the greatest player ever. But this stat is bogus. Look at Wade's and Durant's numbers. Reggie Miller probably comes out looking terrible with this metric too: 18 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, and 1 SPG

This metric doesn't take into account that Melo's the best perimeter scorer in the NBA outside of Durant. When he's on, you cannot stop him. Basketball Reference has him as the 17th most likely player in the NBA to be elected to the Hall of Fame

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

But I'll go back to the Durant example. In my book, he's the best player in the NBA today. I think he's awesome and the polish he has for his size and athletic gifts is unbelievable. Based on how this stat makes him look I don't put much emphasis in this stat.

And the othe roption, LeBron, he's on the best team in the league and is that team's best player. But because he's sacrificed stats for the success of the team, he sudenly appears to be about 75 percent as good as he was last year.

While I appreciate what this metric attempt to do, I think this regression model is seriously lacking.

Melo sucks on the perimeter. He's damn good at the midrange... or is that what you really meant?

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GustavBahler
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1/13/2011  12:39 PM

SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  12:43 PM    LAST EDITED: 1/13/2011  12:45 PM
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
Andrew wrote:While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?

I don't think anyone is saying that Melo is the greatest player ever. But this stat is bogus. Look at Wade's and Durant's numbers. Reggie Miller probably comes out looking terrible with this metric too: 18 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, and 1 SPG

This metric doesn't take into account that Melo's the best perimeter scorer in the NBA outside of Durant. When he's on, you cannot stop him. Basketball Reference has him as the 17th most likely player in the NBA to be elected to the Hall of Fame

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

But I'll go back to the Durant example. In my book, he's the best player in the NBA today. I think he's awesome and the polish he has for his size and athletic gifts is unbelievable. Based on how this stat makes him look I don't put much emphasis in this stat.

And the othe roption, LeBron, he's on the best team in the league and is that team's best player. But because he's sacrificed stats for the success of the team, he sudenly appears to be about 75 percent as good as he was last year.

While I appreciate what this metric attempt to do, I think this regression model is seriously lacking.

Melo sucks on the perimeter. He's damn good at the midrange... or is that what you really meant?

I meant he's an automatic scoring option that plays the wing... not that he's Steve Kerr from 24 feet out, or gets his points the same way Durant does. So, I meant the bold. My bad

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
martin
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1/13/2011  12:55 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
Andrew wrote:While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?

I don't think anyone is saying that Melo is the greatest player ever. But this stat is bogus. Look at Wade's and Durant's numbers. Reggie Miller probably comes out looking terrible with this metric too: 18 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, and 1 SPG

This metric doesn't take into account that Melo's the best perimeter scorer in the NBA outside of Durant. When he's on, you cannot stop him. Basketball Reference has him as the 17th most likely player in the NBA to be elected to the Hall of Fame

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

But I'll go back to the Durant example. In my book, he's the best player in the NBA today. I think he's awesome and the polish he has for his size and athletic gifts is unbelievable. Based on how this stat makes him look I don't put much emphasis in this stat.

And the othe roption, LeBron, he's on the best team in the league and is that team's best player. But because he's sacrificed stats for the success of the team, he sudenly appears to be about 75 percent as good as he was last year.

While I appreciate what this metric attempt to do, I think this regression model is seriously lacking.

Melo sucks on the perimeter. He's damn good at the midrange... or is that what you really meant?

I meant he's an automatic scoring option that plays the wing... not that he's Steve Kerr from 24 feet out, or gets his points the same way Durant does. So, I meant the bold. My bad

what do you base your opinion on when you say "he's an automatic scoring option that plays the wing"?

By all means, his eFG% and TS% don't back that up.

How are you qualifying it?

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crzymdups
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1/13/2011  1:07 PM
For me - this stat seems bogus. David Lee was rated at producing 16.7 wins for the Knicks last year. REALLY? Did he add 16 wins to the Warriors this year? No.

Amar'e was rated at producing 8.9 Wins - so you'd think the Knicks would be substantially worse by trading out DLee for Amar'e - except their substantially better. Fields is given credit for 17 wins this season... but does anyone really think it's Fields who has changed the culture of this team?

Sports is about intangibles. It's about the minute difference between winning and losing. I don't think stats can tell the full story about what happens in a game where the final score is 102 to 101.

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martin
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1/13/2011  1:10 PM
crzymdups wrote:For me - this stat seems bogus. David Lee was rated at producing 16.7 wins for the Knicks last year. REALLY? Did he add 16 wins to the Warriors this year? No.

Amar'e was rated at producing 8.9 Wins - so you'd think the Knicks would be substantially worse by trading out DLee for Amar'e - except their substantially better. Fields is given credit for 17 wins this season... but does anyone really think it's Fields who has changed the culture of this team?

Sports is about intangibles. It's about the minute difference between winning and losing. I don't think stats can tell the full story about what happens in a game where the final score is 102 to 101.

I am having a hard time understanding the stat and what it means or how it should be interpreted. But I think the above is comparing apples to oranges when trying to eek out the meaning of this Wins Produced stat.

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SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  1:10 PM
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
Andrew wrote:While the statistic is not the end all for determining a players worth, don't you have to pause and think about why Melo's rating is low compared to the other players listed? Doesn't it lend some validity to the questions people have posted about whether Melo is worth the price that is being asked?

I don't think anyone is saying that Melo is the greatest player ever. But this stat is bogus. Look at Wade's and Durant's numbers. Reggie Miller probably comes out looking terrible with this metric too: 18 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, and 1 SPG

This metric doesn't take into account that Melo's the best perimeter scorer in the NBA outside of Durant. When he's on, you cannot stop him. Basketball Reference has him as the 17th most likely player in the NBA to be elected to the Hall of Fame

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

But I'll go back to the Durant example. In my book, he's the best player in the NBA today. I think he's awesome and the polish he has for his size and athletic gifts is unbelievable. Based on how this stat makes him look I don't put much emphasis in this stat.

And the othe roption, LeBron, he's on the best team in the league and is that team's best player. But because he's sacrificed stats for the success of the team, he sudenly appears to be about 75 percent as good as he was last year.

While I appreciate what this metric attempt to do, I think this regression model is seriously lacking.

Melo sucks on the perimeter. He's damn good at the midrange... or is that what you really meant?

I meant he's an automatic scoring option that plays the wing... not that he's Steve Kerr from 24 feet out, or gets his points the same way Durant does. So, I meant the bold. My bad

what do you base your opinion on when you say "he's an automatic scoring option that plays the wing"?

By all means, his eFG% and TS% don't back that up.

How are you qualifying it?

From what I've seen. When he is locked in he's impossible to stop. Granted, I've only ever watched him play "meaningful" games. So maybe he's one of those guys that lacks consistent motivation... I don't know. But I've seen him get the ball in big moments in big games and be nasty. Maybe I'm getting valuing clutch moments more than the other ones?

I've seen him play in person a fair amount too. He won me a TON of money in my college fraternity's NCAA pool because I took Syracuse to win due to him. I loved him as a college player and took Syracuse to win it all because of him... he made me a basketball legend with my fraternity brothers.

So, when he plays at MSG and I'm in town i go to see him. (We were lucky on that offensive foul when he came to the Garden in December). My father has had season tickets since 1991. He still has them. I've been blessed with the opportunity to watch a lot of great basketball over the years. And I can tell you from first hand viewing experience, that when he is on you cannot stop him. I will hold to that statement.

I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Six of today's stars stand out most in high-stakes moments

Posted Oct 4 2010 9:58AM
If Jerry West didn't already enjoy a status that trumps almost any other possible NBA honor -- he (or at least his silhouette) is the league's logo, for crying out loud! -- he would be the perfect choice to have his name and image on an award presented annually to the game's most accomplished performer in high-stakes, heavy-pressure, dwindling-clock, make-or-break moments.
Y'know, a Mr. Clutch Award.

The NBA doesn't actually present one of those. Most of the acclaim for those types of dramatics comes instead via NBA TV, SportsCenter or YouTube. But West -- whose other nickname, Zeke From Cabin Creek, gives no inkling of the ice water that ran through his veins in crucial situations -- was known as much as anyone for the way he played the 48th minute of a game as well as, or better than, the first 47.

"I'm surprised when the ball doesn't go in the hoop," the former Los Angeles Lakers great said late in his career. "I think I should make every shot." That included 60-foot desperation heaves with NBA Finals games on the line, apparently. When West let go with his famous shot from beyond mid-court that forced Game 3 of the 1970 championship series against New York into overtime, Knicks guard Walt Frazier recalled thinking, "The man's crazy. He looks determined. He thinks it's really going in!"
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They all do, those players taking most of the last shots.

There were clutch players before Jerry West got to the NBA in 1960, and there have been clutch players since his retirement in 1974. West himself, while running the Lakers' basketball operations, maneuvered in 1996 to land one of the game's all-timer "closers" in Kobe Bryant. By sheer dint of frequency, through good results or bad, Bryant has gained a reputation as the guy most coaches and players would want taking a potential game-winner in a tied or close contest.

"Everybody in our league thinks about Kobe Bryant and what he can do at the end of games," Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy told me recently. "LeBron [James], I think, is great late in games. It's the list -- you just go down the same list if you were talking about the best players in the league. Because they also get the opportunities. Their coaches have confidence in them, their teammates have confidence in them and they get the ball in those situations."

Many fit Van Gundy's definition -- like Bryant, James, Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant and Joe Johnson. They are the NBA's great players, All-Stars who have earned the opportunities to determine outcomes through makes or misses.

Some, though, are more specialized, rising up more often in tough times than in calm. Chauncey Billups didn't get his nickname "Mr. Big Shot" for nothing. Manu Ginobili might not be the scorer San Antonio will look to in the first, second or third quarters, but he sure seems to be that guy in the fourth. Derek Fisher is keeping the spirit of Robert Horry alive in the postseason. And other players with keen offensive touches -- Jason Terry, Richard Hamilton, Jamaal Crawford, Andre Iguodala -- have thrived in clutch situations without necessarily being first-team all-NBA performers.

"Someone who absolutely thrives in the deepest moments of pressure," is how Miami coach Erik Spoelstra defines it. Spoelstra now has at least two of those guys in James and Dwyane Wade, stars whose reputation for late-game heroics is backed up by empirical data as well.

The Web site 82games.com tracks "clutch" stats along these criteria: fourth quarter or overtime, less than five minutes left, neither team ahead by more than five points. On that scale, James ranked No. 1 in 2009-10 by averaging a pro-rated 66.1 points per 48 minutes of "clutch" time. Wade, with 32.6 was down the list at No. 22, but he ranked fourth in 2008-09.

Together, James (151) and Wade (144) played a total of 295 minutes in "clutch" situations last season -- which could drop significantly if they and the rest of the Miami Heat are as dominant as many anticipate in 2010-11. If all goes according to Pat Riley's plan and the rest of the NBA's fears, "garbage" time will replace clutch time at the end of most Heat games.

Still, when it does come down to a last shot, who will take it? Good question. It's the same thing Miami's opponents will be asking themselves in huddles with six seconds left. (Wade did average 10.0 assists in "clutch" time last season, so having him set up James might be Spoelstra's best option.)

Coaches tend to remember not only the players who win games for them but those who beat them in clutch situations -- while dreading those who might.

Washington's Flip Saunders sees Chicago's young point guard, Derrick Rose, developing into one of those late-game assassins, especially if his jump shot improves as planned this season.

Van Gundy has been on both sides of the Wade experience. "I had Dwyane his first years in the league, and he loved being in the big moment," the Orlando Magic coach said. "He had that when he came into the league. He developed it somewhere along the line -- high school, college, wherever -- but by the time he got to the NBA, he was one of those guys."

Van Gundy doesn't agree with those who talk about "rising to the occasion" of a pressure-packed shot. He thinks the best "clutch" players gain their reputations by avoiding the flip side of that, otherwise known as "choking." There are plenty of players in the NBA -- and there have been some well-known stars, too -- who suffer from Costanza-like shrinkage at critical times.

"What you really mean are guys whose performances can stay the same," Van Gundy said. "Their performance doesn't decline in those situations, the pressure doesn't get to him. It's people who can relax. To me, what it comes down to is that guy has to realize that he's going to fail a lot of times in that situation. And that can't bother him. Those are the guys who want to have the ball in their hands. They want to become known as the great clutch players in this league."

Philadelphia's Doug Collins had Michael Jordan for three seasons in Chicago, worked against him for three years in Detroit, then teamed with Jordan for his last two seasons in Washington. He saw, up close, the consummate, conscienceless clutch player. "The one thing they all have in common is they never think of the consequences if they miss," Collins said. "They don't ask, 'What happens if I miss?' because I don't believe in their minds they're going to. And if they do miss, I don't think there any hesitation to want to do it again the next night.

"You have to have a very short memory. And you have to have that feeling of, 'I'm going to live with the results whether it goes in or not.' Michael even made a commercial about game-winners, about how nobody ever looks at the shots that he missed."

Funny, but those don't burn themselves into our brains (Craig Ehlo) quite like the ones (Bryon Russell) Jordan made. Same goes for these guys, the members of our All-Clutch Team:

Point guard: Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
Nash's shooting percentages dipped across the board in the clutch time defined by 82games.com, but his scoring went up (43.6 per 48 minutes, fifth-best in the league), his turnovers went down slightly (from 3.6 overall to 3.4) and his assists bumped to 13.4 -- better than Nash's average in any of his 14 seasons. And it happened thanks in part to one simple ingredient: Breathing.

In the September issue of Men's Journal, Nash talked about performance advice the Canadian national team got from its psychologist at the 2000 Sydney Olympics. "[He] explained that when people get nervous, they tend to hold their breath or not breathe as frequently as they should, which only causes the nervous system to get even more out of whack," Nash said. "So in order to focus -- and forget about the referee, the last play, the crowd and our opponent -- we'd remind each other to breathe normally and to take deep breaths when we were feeling a lot of pressure."

Shooting guard: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
Bryant makes a lot of game-winning shots because he takes a lot of (potentially) game-winning shots. Last season, he had a half dozen stellar clutch moments, most memorably his 3-pointer at the buzzer over Wade and the Heat in a December game. But as 82games.com noted in a study of "game-winning shot opportunities" -- defined as 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball trailing by one or two points -- Bryant missed a league-high 42 such shots from 2003-04 through the first half of 2008-09, playoffs included. So his actual success rate isn't as grand as his reputation.

But there's a chicken-or-egg element to this, too, because Bryant gets to talk a lot of L.A.'s late-game shots because he has made many in the past. "You see that and go, 'Wow, this guy rises to the occasion most nights. And completes,' " Toronto coach Jay Triano said. But Bryant's low assists number (3.6) in the clutch suggests he could grow as a decoy and creator for others.
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Small forward: Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
'Melo is so good in the clutch that you wonder why he'd rather play for the Nets or the Knicks than the Nuggets, since he probably would go backward (at least initially) in the number of big games and clutch moments. Of course, wherever Anthony plays, he figures to be The Man in the closing seconds of any game still to be had. Said Collins: "Carmelo has had a ton of game-winners for George [Karl, Denver coach] the last few years."

Last season, the Nuggets forward averaged 47.0 points per 48 clutch minutes and averaged 21.7 free throws -- compared to his lifetime pro-rated average of 10.4 free throws per 48. In 2008-09, Anthony was even better, producing at a rate of 54.4 points in the clutch with 24 trips to the line. And the 80 percent lifetime foul shooter has been better, late than early, both years.

Power forward: LeBron James, Miami Heat
OK, we're fudging here. But James not only has the size to play this position, Riley and Spoelstra have talked about using him here at times, with Chris Bosh shifting to center. Shaky early in his career in clutch moments, James has grown into the role more recently.

In the study by 82games.com, the former Cleveland star succeeded just four times in 19 opportunities from 2003-04 through 2005-06. But in the next two-plus seasons, he was 13-of-31. In 2009-10, James also averaged 15.9 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 3.2 blocks in clutch situations.

Center: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Look, Nowitzki has the size to play center on this squad -- we're talking last shots, so we're not worried about blue-collar banging for the first 45 minutes or so -- and he definitely has the resume. Over the past three seasons, the Dallas sharpshooter has ranked third, eighth and third in points production, topping 40.9 each time while shedding doubts about his work in that role. "Now he wants that shot," Dallas owner Mark Cuban has said.

If you're looking for a more traditional pick here, it might be San Antonio's Tim Duncan, though he dislikes the "center" label. Said Washington coach Flip Saunders: "For a big man, Tim Duncan always has made big shots. He isn't known for that because he does it in a very non-flamboyant, very methodical way."

Sixth Man: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Wade has to be on here somewhere, right? The Miami guard creates shots for himself or for teammates and he's willing to tie or win games from the line if he can't launch a clean shot. To hear Spoelstra tell it, his guy goes into a zone that cuts across sports, known similarly by Alex Ovechkin, Peyton Manning or Albert Pujols.

"At those times, you can see an absolute calm," the Heat coach said. "Dwyane may be able to play at a faster speed even, but you can see his brain is slowing down. You always hear that expression, 'The game is slowing down' or 'It was like we were playing in slow motion.' That's Dwyane in pressure situations, even when it might look physically like he's going fast-forward."

Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA for 25 years. You can e-mail him here and follow him on twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/steve_aschburner/10/04/all-clutch-team/index.html

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
martin
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1/13/2011  1:14 PM
SupremeCommander, clutch stats very different that than what you had suggested previously. I don't doubt that and it seems backed up pretty nicely with stats what we can all read easily.
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SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  1:17 PM
martin wrote:SupremeCommander, clutch stats very different that than what you had suggested previously. I don't doubt that and it seems backed up pretty nicely with stats what we can all read easily.

When you need him to score, he scores. How can this not be considered "automatic"? I stand by my assessment that he's an "automatic scoring option that plays the wing."

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
weird stat article on Melo WSJ

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