TMS wrote:Those who criticized the Nate trade and have then backtracked after Walker started playing well, are victims of the wrong type of thinking.
it's always good to wait & see the results before judging anything, but it's better to backtrack on something & man up about being wrong than to keep insisting on pulling any excuse out of thin air to argue one's position no matter what.
if DW's moves work out & we land ourselves 2 franchise guys this summer, i would be the first to admit i was wrong to ever have doubted him... i wonder if the same could be said about those who have consistently defended DW & MDA against any criticism if things don't pan out the way they planned?
It's not what I was getting at. You can backtrack all you want, but the guy charged with making the decision has to make it with imperfect knowledge. Its just the way things work.
So decisions should not be judged based on the outcome in my opinion. This is hard to explain in few shot sentences and I'll make another clumsy attempt here, making some assumption, this is how you would compute the success of a decision.
Suppose we have a 40% chance that Lebron comes here and we all agree he will make us a contender with few good pieces. So the Lebron option has a 0.4*1 = 40% chance of success
Suppose there is a 30% chance that one of Hill or the other 8-10th position draft pick will turn into a franchise player. Suppose there is an 80% chance that putting the right pieces around them will produce a competing team. So the Keep JH option would have a 0.3*0.8 = 24% chance of success.
With LBJ success would come early, with JH/Pick it would come later. Of course the results would vary based on what assumptions you make about probability of something happening. Now that is what goes in to making a decision.
Once your decision is made there is no going back (for DW or the Knicks, you can still go back an man up
). But there are many different scenarios that can play out:
1. Lebron is a knick in 2010
2. Lebron is not a knick in 2010
3. JH becomes a superstar
4. Draft pick becomes a superstar
5. They both become scrubs
6. We get Bosh and CP3 and JH becomes a complete scrub in D-League
possibilities are enormous, as long as you make good assumptions you should take the higher percentage pay-off to make a decision. And then you need to live with your convictions. So a decision should be judged based on what information is available at the time of making that decision. So yes JH and pick may become superstars, but the available information right now does nut support that theory and it does not indicate they will be better than having Lebron. This is why I support DWs decision regardless of the outcome. A scenarios is very possible where we don't get anyone good and end up with JJ3 and some other schmuck but the decisions being made now should not be evaluated based on that or any other outcome. It should be evaluated based on what probabilities you think you can safely assume based on what we knew when the decision was made.
TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!