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BRIGGS
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Posted by JohnWallace44:
Looking ahead: Free-agent class of 2010
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Insider
Ford By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
New York fans are hoping LeBron will be playing for the Knicks instead of against them in 2010-11.
This summer has been a tough one for a lot of free agents. Sure, a few free agents cashed in: Ben Gordon, Hedo Turkoglu and Anderson Varejao got deals worth more than $50 million. But that pales in comparison to what a number of top free agents got last season.
First, we don't know which players will opt out of their contracts in 2010 and who will play them out. Second, we don't know which players from the 2007 Draft Class will get extensions over the course of the next year.
Also during the summer, only one player from the 2006 NBA draft who is eligible for an extension -- Andrea Bargnani -- has received any love from his team. The rest of the 2006 first-round picks, including stalwarts like Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo, are still trying to work out deals with their respective teams.
The rest of the summer's free-agent class?
Only a handful have found anything near the money that free agents in years past got on the open market. And a number of prospects, including David Lee of the Knicks and Raymond Felton of the Bobcats, are still waiting for deals.
Once again, the main culprit was the dreaded NBA salary cap. Only a few teams -- the Pistons, Blazers, Grizzlies and Thunder -- really had the money to pick up a major free agent from another team. One of those teams, Oklahoma City, decided not to spend much of its money.
But the cap isn't the only reason, as the NBA is suffering from the worldwide financial crisis, too. While a few teams, such as the Magic, Cavs and Spurs, have gone all out, a large number of teams have showed major financial restraint. With the NBA salary cap and luxury tax threshold projected to drop 5-10 percent next year, many GMs have been slashing costs wherever they can.
The other key factor? LeBron James and the supersized free-agent class of 2010. A number of teams are trying to make or save cap space for next summer. LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, among other stars, are expected to hit the open market. So many teams, including the New York Knicks, are being more financially responsible than we've seen in recent years.
With the 2009 NBA free-agent frenzy subsiding, here's a sneak peek at who could be available in 2010:
Group I: The "Big 10" ETO or player option candidates
These are the players with an "early termination option" (ETO) or "player option" (PO) in their contracts, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2010. Here's the star-studded lineup:
Key: player option (PO) | early termination option (ETO)
1. LeBron James, Cavaliers (PO)
The buzz surrounding LeBron's foray into free agency next summer has been the loudest in NBA history, and we've been hearing it for years. Several teams have focused their strategy on being a candidate to sign LeBron or another player on this list.
But first, the big question is whether he would actually leave the Cavs. The conventional wisdom on this has been all over the place. The Knicks and Nets were thought to be his biggest suitors, and they'll both have the money to pay him. The problem is that both teams could be so depleted from a talent standpoint that he may not want to come. A couple of other teams, including the Heat and Bulls, will also be far enough under the cap to pay him if he wants to go to a team that already has a more established roster.
If I were a betting man, I'd wager that LeBron will ultimately stay in Cleveland. But it should be fun watching him shop around next summer.
2. Dwyane Wade, Heat (PO)
There hasn't been nearly the hype around Wade's potential departure as there has been for LeBron's. Why? One, most people in the league believe Wade wants to re-sign in Miami. Second, Wade turns 28 in January. He's not the young franchise cornerstone that LeBron is.
Still, there will be plenty of teams interested in Wade next summer. The Knicks, Nets, Heat, Bulls and Rockets will all come courting with realistic pitches about why he should bolt South Beach. But it's just as likely the Heat will use Wade as a recruiter to get one of these top free agents to come to Miami instead.
3. Kobe Bryant, Lakers (PO)
It's unclear whether Kobe will stay on this list. He's eligible to be a free agent this year, 2010, or 2011, but there's virtually no chance Kobe will opt out of his contract with the Lakers. He's been working on a three-year extension this summer and should have something in place by the fall.
But if things were to fall apart, there would be a tremendous amount of interest from all of the aforementioned teams, especially the Knicks. Kobe and Mike D'Antoni have a great relationship.
4. Chris Bosh, Raptors (PO)
Bosh has been pegged since last year as the young star free agent most likely to bolt his team. The Raptors have been struggling, and Bosh has been privately pining to return to the States. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he will leave, but the Raptors are really sweating it. They need to show huge improvement this season.
You can expect every one of the teams with cap space to make a big push for him. The Rockets would be appealing because they play in Bosh's native Texas. But the Heat might be the most interesting option. A Bosh-Wade combination sounds formidable. And don't count out the Bulls. They want him, and with young players like Derrick Rose on the squad, he'd have a bright future in Chicago.
5. Amare Stoudemire, Suns (ETO)
When he's healthy, Stoudemire is as good as any big man in the league. Just 26 years old, he's hyperathletic and a monster on the offensive end. But questions about his knees, an eye injury and his attitude have hurt his stock a bit, and he won't be pursued as vigorously as the first four. The Suns sound like they'd like to retain him, but there's a good chance he'll walk if the Suns don't turn things around this season (or trade him first). A reunion with his old head coach, D'Antoni, in New York or his old boss, Bryan Colangelo, in Toronto would appear to be the two most likely scenarios should Stoudemire leave Phoenix.
6. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (ETO)
Nowitzki turned 31 in June but still plays like an All-Star. The question is, for how much longer? Dallas is hoping to get a few more seasons out of him, and most likely, he'll agree to an extension with the Mavs. Given their commitments to Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd over the next few years, I'd expect them to lock up Dirk, too.
7. Yao Ming, Rockets (ETO)
Yao would obviously be much higher on this list if his entire career weren't in jeopardy at the moment. Yao has had major surgery on his foot this summer and will spend the entire season rehabbing it. The Rockets are hoping he has a Zydrunas Ilgauskas-like recovery and goes on to several more productive seasons in Houston.
However, that's a big "if" right now. Given that Yao will be out the entire season, it seems unlikely he'll terminate his contract in 2010. But if he does and can show that he's healthy, he'll obviously have interest from every team with cap space.
8. Paul Pierce, Celtics (ETO)
Pierce has been pretty adamant that he wants to be a Celtic for life, and it looks as though it will play out that way. He turns 32 in November. While he is still going strong, he probably has only two or three more highly productive seasons left in him. Most likely, the Celtics will give him an extension.
9. Tyson Chandler, Bobcats (ETO)
There won't be a lot of great centers on the free-agent market next year, and if Chandler can have a productive, healthy season for Charlotte next year, he might want to opt out of his contract. He is just 26 years old, and if the top free agents all stay home, a team with a lot of cap room may be willing to open up its wallet in a long-term deal for him.
10. Richard Jefferson, Spurs (ETO)
The Spurs just traded for Jefferson and should be fielding a team that will be a championship contender for the next few years. While Jefferson might try to opt out, it's highly unlikely he could earn anything close to the $15 million he'd be due during the 2010-11 season.
Other notables: Kenyon Martin, Nuggets (ETO); Michael Redd, Bucks (ETO); John Salmons, Bulls (ETO); Joel Przybilla, Blazers (ETO); T.J. Ford, Pacers (PO); Peja Stojakovic, Hornets (ETO); Vladimir Radmanovic, Bobcats (ETO); Grant Hill, Suns (PO); Channing Frye, Suns (PO); Willie Green, Sixers (ETO); Jason Kapono, Sixers (PO); DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards (PO); Sebastian Telfair, Clippers (PO); Eddy Curry, Knicks (PO)
Group II: The restricted free agents
Just one player from the first-round draft class of 2006 -- Bargnani -- has signed an extension this summer. Teams and eligible 2006 draftees have until Oct. 31 to work out extensions, so I'd expect several more to be added to this list over the course of the next few months. The remaining players who don't get extensions will be restricted free agents in the summer. As we've seen in the past few years, it's very difficult for most restricted free agents to move to a different NBA team. This past summer, not one major restricted free agent has moved to another NBA team (Charlie Villanueva became an unrestricted free agent when the Bucks decided not to retain him).
While there will be more teams with serious cap space next summer, don't expect things to change for restricted free agents.
1. Brandon Roy, Blazers
The Blazers and Roy have been in pretty tough negotiations this summer. Roy expected to get a max offer from the Blazers. When he didn't, he started sulking a bit. But I don't blame the Blazers for wanting a discount on an extension. They can match any offer for Roy next summer if he becomes a restricted free agent, so they aren't at any major risk of losing him.
Given his injury history, it's probably in his best interest to compromise on something now. Either way, expect Roy to be wearing a Blazers uniform for at least the next two seasons, probably longer.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
With so much commotion going on over the Blazers and Roy's negotiations, Aldridge has been a bit of an afterthought. He's coming off two consecutive stellar seasons and everyone expects him, at some point, to re-up with Portland. Given Greg Oden's early struggles, Aldridge has taken on more importance as the top big man in the Blazers' rotation.
3. Rudy Gay, Grizzlies
Gay's case is a little more interesting. The Grizzlies have been running a bare-bones operation for the past few years, and it's unclear whether owner Michael Heisley is ready to break the bank to keep Gay. If the Grizzlies decide not to, Gay would be one of the top free-agent targets next summer.
4. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
Conventional practice would've had Rondo already locked into an extension by now. He was the best player on the floor for the Celtics in the playoffs, and he's just 23 years old.
However, the truth is much weirder. The Celtics actually shopped Rondo this summer, and when the shopping went public, both Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers bad-mouthed Rondo a little. It was nothing major, but talk about him being selfish and not following team rules couldn't have gone over well in his camp. I think the Celtics are afraid to give him a long-term extension right now and fully expect that, unless Rondo is traded, he'll be a restricted free agent next summer.
A number of teams, including the Heat, Knicks and Rockets, need a point guard. If the Celtics won't pay him, someone else will.
5. Luis Scola, Rockets
Scola has been a pleasant surprise for the Rockets. In two seasons, he's proved to be a legit threat in the paint. He's already 29 years old, so he doesn't have more than one more big contract in him, but unless the Rockets have a real shot at one of the elite free agents in the group, I expect that they'll re-sign him.
6. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
Thomas may be the most difficult guy to peg in the group. He's as talented as anyone in his draft class. But he's been terribly inconsistent and he has had numerous attitude issues with the Bulls. The word this summer was that Chicago was trying to trade him. That's a pretty good sign that if they can't trade him this summer, they probably won't be willing to break the bank for him next summer.
7. Ronnie Brewer, Jazz
Brewer's numbers aren't sexy, but he's a versatile guard who can defend and get to the basket. If he would ever figure out how to shoot a jumper, he could be really good. His numbers have improved every year he's been in the league. With the Jazz in somewhat of a financial crunch, he could be one of those restricted free agents who can work themselves free if the right offer came along.
8. Randy Foye, Wizards
Foye hasn't lived up to his lofty draft status yet. He may forever be known as the guy for whom the Wolves swapped Brandon Roy. However, when he's been healthy, Foye has been an effective scorer in a combo-guard role. He'll have less pressure on him to carry the team in D.C., and I actually think it will make him a more attractive free-agent target next summer.
9. Josh Childress, Hawks
Childress went back to Greece for a second straight season after failing to be wowed by an offer from an NBA team. The Hawks still hold his restricted rights, but by now, no one thinks they'd actually match an offer for Childress. If he has a good year in Europe, he might be able to garner more than the midlevel exception from someone next year. But as of now, it looks as though Childress' European experiment may have paid him big bucks in the short run, but in the long run, it has damaged his value in the league.
10. Kyle Lowry, Rockets
Lowry is still more about potential than production right now. He's got dynamite energy and can be a tenacious defender, but his offensive game is still lacking. Maybe a full year in Houston will give him the minutes he needs to establish himself as a legit starting point guard in the league. If he can't, he's still got a lot of potential as a feisty backup off the bench.
Other notables: Jordan Farmar, Lakers; Thabo Sefalosha, Thunder; J.J. Redick, Magic; Adam Morrison, Lakers; Hilton Armstrong, Hornets; Josh Boone, Nets; Oleksiy Pecherov, Timberwolves
Group III: The real, honest-to-goodness unrestricted free agents
Finally, here are the guys who will be on the market with no strings attached. Although there is a lot of star power here, most of the big names are on the back end of their careers.
1. Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Everyone expected Boozer to opt out of his contract in 2009, but a series of injuries combined with an awful free-agent market persuaded him to stay with Utah another year. The Jazz have him on the trading block, and wherever he lands will likely be his final destination in free agency as well. If Boozer is going to earn anything near the money he's asking for, he's going to need to stay healthy all year. No one wants to commit to a long-term deal with a broken-down power forward.
2. Joe Johnson, Hawks
Johnson is coming off yet another terrific year for the Hawks. He can score in a lot of ways and can play both backcourt positions. He just turned 28, so he still has four or five years left in him. If the Hawks don't take another big step toward being a contender this year, he could decide to leave for a team with a better chance of helping him win a title.
3. Manu Ginobili, Spurs
Ginobili continues to be one of the most dynamic guards in the league, but age and injuries are starting to catch up with him. Ginobili turned 32 in July and his fearless style of play is leading to more and more injuries. Ginobili played just 44 games last season for the Spurs, and a number of GMs I spoke with question how much longer he can keep it up. Most likely, the Spurs will re-sign him to an extension. But if he hits the free-agent market, he may not be able to garner as much as you'd think.
4. Shaquille O'Neal, Cavs
Shaq's game had been in slow decline for years before a sudden surge last season for the Suns. Now he's coming to Cleveland to play second fiddle to LeBron and prove he can still win a title. If he pulls it off, there's probably a GM or two willing to offer him lots of money on a two- or three-year contract. But if you look at other facts, you have to wonder whether this is Shaq's last hurrah. He is 37 years old, has played more games than any other active player in the league, and has so many outside interests that it wouldn't shock me if he just called it quits.
5. Ray Allen, Celtics
Allen is another player whose game has been in decline over the past few years. He just turned 34 and can't have much left in the tank. Can he? The truth is that Allen will still get lots of interest because he has a skill that doesn't really deteriorate much with age -- he still can shoot the lights out. While he has become a liability on the defensive end, Allen can still stretch defenses as a shooter, and some GM will be willing to pay him a solid salary to do it until he's 38 or 39 -- the same age at which Reggie Miller retired.
6. Tracy McGrady, Rockets
When he's healthy, McGrady is still a heck of a player. But more and more you have to question whether he will ever be totally healthy. T-Mac played just 35 games last season and only 62 games the season before. He had back issues and is now in the process of rehabbing a shoulder and recovering from microfracture surgery in his knee. McGrady likely won't be back until early next season, and even that's not a given when you factor in the seriousness of his knee injury. If McGrady does come back and plays well toward the end of the season, teams will be interested. But most likely he'll struggle to get a long-term commitment from anyone.
7. Marcus Camby, Clippers
Camby continues to be a shot-blocking and rebounding force, despite the fact that he turned 35 in March. While no one is going to be willing to commit to him in a long-term deal, he could be the missing piece for another year or two for a team trying to add some size and shot-blocking in the paint.
8. Travis Outlaw, Blazers
Outlaw has been somewhat a forgotten man in Portland. He's been a solid scorer and shooter for the Blazers the past few seasons. He's still young and athletic, and given all the money the Blazers are going to have to commit to young players like Roy and Aldridge, he probably won't be re-signed by the team.
9. Al Harrington, Knicks
If Harrington gets a big contract next summer, he should give D'Antoni a 20 percent cut. Harrington reignited his career after being traded to the Knicks early last season. He averaged a career high in points and 3-pointers and showed he could really put it in the basket in D'Antoni's up-tempo system. While it's unlikely anyone will give him a huge contract, Harrington has put himself back on the radar screen in New York.
10. Mike Miller, Wizards
Miller is coming off the worst season of his career in Minnesota. Things should get better in Washington with a much better supporting cast. Miller has one skill (shooting) that guarantees he's going to get a lot of interest from teams next summer.
Other notables: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavs; Jermaine O'Neal, Heat; Brad Miller, Bulls; Udonis Haslem, Heat; Brendan Haywood, Wizards; Darko Milicic, Knicks; Luke Ridnour, Bucks; Steve Blake, Blazers; Derek Fisher, Lakers; Larry Hughes, Knicks; Kyle Korver, Jazz; Chris Duhon, Knicks; Craig Smith, Clippers; Roger Mason, Spurs; Earl Watson, Pacers; Antoine Wright, Raptors; Amir Johnson, Bucks; Raja Bell, Bobcats; Bobby Simmons, Nets; Rasual Butler, Hornets; Mike James, Wizards; Dorell Wright, Heat; Kwame Brown, Pistons 1. Odds Lebron James 25/100 2. Wade 0/100 3. Kobe 0/100 4. Chris Bosh 25/100 5 Amare Stoudemire 35/100 6 Dirk-0/100 7 Yao--0/100 8 Paul Pierce0/100 9 Ty Chandler--what? 10 Richard Jefferson--again what??? restricted that may be worth 10mm + FA Rudy gay 25/100 if we overpay him a max ditto rondo and ditto to guys like Ty Thomas etc.. if we overpay a restricted FA--like Detroit did with BG then there is opportunity--but other than maybe Rudy gay--is anyone else really worth it? True unrestricted FA---no one stands out to me for huge dollars RIP Crushalot😞
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8/9/2009 3:56 PM