Posted by earthmansurfer:
I don't think the question is whether or not someone will offer Crawford 10 million a year. He knows the answer is NO and we all do. He is looking more for longer term security. He'll give in to less than 10 million a year, say 7 million and have it go to 5 years, or something like that. He is looking at it like 20 million guaranteed Vs. 35 or 40 million guaranteed. Business decision.
It's real clear Crawford is not what everyone saw him being in Chicago. The only chance for him is Larry Brown I hate to say. 
I always like how mistakes are all-inclusive. Like the Bushies claiming that everyone thought Saddam had WMD's.
Your economic reasoning seems highly dubious.
2 years and $20M guaranteed, or possibly 5 years and $35/$40M.
When his current contract is up, Craw would only need to get a relatively minor/average 3 year $15/$20M to break even. And even that's really a loss, as it's always more valuable to get money upfront and sooner, rather than later. Think about it: he'd be giving up $6M upfront the next two years, or more than his final year salary in your scenario. He'd also be trying for a new contract during a horrible recession, which might be the D word by the time he's looking for a new contract. There's the distinct possibility that he only gets a short or average contract, especially after two crappy teams gave up on him in one season.
Craw is opting for $20M. Bank on it.