Posted by VDesai:

Posted by BRIGGS:

Posted by VDesai:

The salary cap is basically 51% of basketball related income. The cap for this year is at 58 million and has risen on average 3 mil a year. For the cap to decline to 50 mil in 2010 would have to mean some catastrophic change to a teams cable contract or something. I expect that number to remain rather sticky, as most teams cable contracts will remain consistent from year to year. Gates and concessions would have to decline tremendously for BRI to be reduced to an amount that would result in an $8 million dollar cap decrease.

I think Briggs' assumptions are way off.

The cap will drop just like everything else in the economy--you think the NBA is not immune from this vicious cycle? 50mm is about a 15% drop which I think is probable. 2009 will be the worst economic year in 70++ years and the 2010 cap is going to be based on that. 50mm will be a LUCKY number

BRIGGS, you are assuming a $16-$17 mil drop in gate reciepts- its certainly possible, but definitely not a base assumption when revenue from gate receipts tends to rise. The cable income is not gonna change b/c most teams are locked into contracts. If the cap did drop that much, you better believe contracts in the NBA will be way down as well- proportionate with the way the cap dropped. In which case you can't assume players like like Lee, Nate and Duhon to recieve $10 mil contracts- you can't have your cake and eat it too.


[Edited by - vdesai on 12-08-2008 09:10 AM]

I never said Nate would get a 10mm $ contract--I strongly believe Lee will or more. Lee's contract will be based on next years cap which will be effected but not as bad as the next year when most of the NBA has cap room. I won't say a word--I will tell you point blank we have NO chance of keeping Lee Nate Duhon and getting Bosh and Lebron--it doesnt work like that. We would have to have Duhon and Lee signed through 2010 already. You can negotiate a contract extension with Duhon next year--but what do you think his agent will ask for? I would ask for 10mm + and so will a pro agent. Both Lee and Duhon are headed for 10mm contracts if they keep this play up.

from what teams?

This is my problem with the arguments King1 and yourself put out there.

I do not disagree that the market for Lee or Duhon could start at $8mm-$10mm, but thats only part of it. Just because a guy is worth that much doesnt mean he is going to get it. Is Duhon worth more than Ben Gordon? 24 years old, 20ppg and one of the better 4th qtr players in the league and nobody offers him a contract, yet Lee and Duhon are going to get $10mm deals because their agents will ask for it.

Knicks are 100% in the drivers seat here.

I know this point deviates from the way the thread has evolved, but I will say that NYC has a unique appeal to it because the team hasn't won in a long time, despite being The Basketball Mecca. Some elite player is going to welcome putting the Knicks on the map. That player has the unique opportunity of cementing his legacy not only as an all time great, but as one of the greatest athletes in NYC history. Others will follow for similar reasons. The only reason a great player hasn't signed here yet is because the ineptitude of the previous GMs. Once these players can actually sign, they will.

Maximums, mid levels and minimums are proportional to the cap anyway so the point in regards to this discussion is moot. See the '99 lockout and the end of "KG money" for reference. Regardless, the salary cap will not be $50 million. Both sides have to agree to the cap number and a $50 mil cap doesn't work for the owners or players. David Stern and Billy Hunter would kill someone before that happened. At worst, we'd have another long lockout if the cap drops dramatically.

Every player is different. There are a ton of guys around the League who would never in a million years want to play in NY. I don't see why that's so hard to believe. But others would kill to play here. There's no catch all formula that determines who's in what boat especially when you start factoring in wives, families, cost of living, schools, age, media, post playing career aspirations, surrounding talent, management, coaching staff, etc.

Posted by nysportsfan11:

Maximums, mid levels and minimums are proportional to the cap anyway so the point in regards to this discussion is moot. See the '99 lockout and the end of "KG money" for reference. Regardless, the salary cap will not be $50 million. Both sides have to agree to the cap number and a $50 mil cap doesn't work for the owners or players. David Stern and Billy Hunter would kill someone before that happened. At worst, we'd have another long lockout if the cap drops dramatically.

Every player is different. There are a ton of guys around the League who would never in a million years want to play in NY. I don't see why that's so hard to believe. But others would kill to play here. There's no catch all formula that determines who's in what boat especially when you start factoring in wives, families, cost of living, schools, age, media, post playing career aspirations, surrounding talent, management, coaching staff, etc.

Salary cap will be driven and set by revenues--simple economics 101. Go look up the formula

I dont understand the cap space but after this year Portland is at 41 million doesnt that mean they have space. Chicago is one trade away for having space. These guys are going to get paid are you saying free agency is going away because no one has money to sign players? I am glad Lee has a degree maybe he can work on wall street next year

Posted by King1:

I dont understand the cap space but after this year Portland is at 41 million doesnt that mean they have space. Chicago is one trade away for having space. These guys are going to get paid are you saying free agency is going away because no one has money to sign players? I am glad Lee has a degree maybe he can work on wall street next year

Fish is talking about being able to sign Lee this summer, not in 2010.

And after this summer Portland will be at around $41M without Frye, Webster, Blake in that figure.

I understand that and they will probably let most of those guys walk. Okay lets assume there is no market then the Knicks are really screwed. Let say no one offers Lee anything higher than a MLE then he signs a qualyfying offer and walks next year and the Knicks lose their only trading chip.

Posted by martin:

Posted by King1:

I understand that and they will probably let most of those guys walk. Okay lets assume there is no market then the Knicks are really screwed. Let say no one offers Lee anything higher than a MLE then he signs a qualyfying offer and walks next year and the Knicks lose their only trading chip.

Donnie is evaluating DLee right now and I would guess that he likes what he sees. No reason he can't sign him this summer. Don't know why Donne and MDA would think it would be a good idea to sign Lee to the qualifying off and let him walk next year, i mean these guys do have a little bit of brain, right?

Well, what if they made the determination that they didn't want Lee to be a long-term piece because the money was better spent elsewhere? Then, wouldn't it be smart to sign him to the QO, and get another year of cheap service?

^ I have no idea what those last 2 posts mean. I think Donnie will do what's right for the Knicks and am guessing Lee is in the long term plans.

Posted by martin:

Posted by King1:

I understand that and they will probably let most of those guys walk. Okay lets assume there is no market then the Knicks are really screwed. Let say no one offers Lee anything higher than a MLE then he signs a qualyfying offer and walks next year and the Knicks lose their only trading chip.

Donnie is evaluating DLee right now and I would guess that he likes what he sees. No reason he can't sign him this summer. Don't know why Donne and MDA would think it would be a good idea to sign Lee to the qualifying off and let him walk next year, i mean these guys do have a little bit of brain, right?

King.. thats the assumption I dont get, that the Knick are going to do nothing. Knicks can resign Lee and still be under the cap enough to offer a FA max money in 2010. I dont see why you or anyone else thinks Knicks will let Lee walk.

If Knicks can trade JJ or Curry in the next year and a half they could resign Lee to 5 years $50 mm, Duhon to 5 years $50mm and Nate to 5 years $40mm and still throw max at whoever. If they can trade one of both of Curry/JJ then yes.. they will have to let Lee, Nate or Duhon go, but only one.. not 2 or 3