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TheGame
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5/5/2008  12:50 AM
There a few players that can score 50 points in a game and Crawford has shown that he can do that. When he gets into the zone, the kid is unstoppable. He has alot of weaknesses to his game, but to say he is comparable to Tim Thomas, who truly has never lived up to anything close to his potential, is overly discounting Jamal's game. I would take Crawford over several shooting guards in this league, include Larry Hughes and Mobley.
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SupremeCommander
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5/5/2008  1:43 AM
This is the last comment I'll make on this subject... I think that they are comparable players. I think that Crawford isn't worthy of being a 40 minute a game player, but that's what he did this year. If Tim Thomas had Jamal Crawford's role, they'd have similar number. In fact, I just made an Excel spread sheet to illustrate this:

	
TTC JC0708 TT0708
MPG 26.70 39.90 39.90
PPG 11.80 20.80 21.08
FTA 1934.00 384.00 384.00
FTM 1466.00 328.00 291.08
FT% 0.76 0.85 0.76
FGA 7378.00 1391.00 1391.00
FGM 3220.00 570.00 607.08
FG% 0.44 0.41 0.44
3PA 2377.00 496.00 496.00
3PM 868.00 176.00 181.12
3P% 0.37 0.35 0.37
RPG 4.20 2.60 6.28
RPM 0.16 0.16
APG 1.60 5.00 2.39
APM 0.06 0.06


TTC = Tim Thomas' career
JC0708 = Jamal Crawford's 07-08 numbers
TT0708 = Tim Thomas' estimate performance in Jamal Crawford's role

You'll notice that the numbers are very, very similar. For PPG, I used this equation: (3PM*3+(FGM-3PM)*2+FTM)/80
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GKFv2
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5/5/2008  3:26 AM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by 4949:
Posted by joec32033:
Posted by Anji:

Tim Thomas is comparable to Jamal??? I know some of you guys don't like him as a player, but come on, ya'll sound like senile white hicks when you have comments like that about our team.

Ignorant.

ditto.

double ditto. That kind of post should be removed IMO.

It's Anji, what do you expect?

Anyway, this has to be a joke. Nobody is giving away draft picks for a guy with a terrible shooting percentage, terrible shot selection, terrible defense, and a low basketball IQ. Averaging 20 points on a bad team like the Knicks isn't much of a feat. Nobody was doing cartwheels for Ricky Davis when he was getting 25 ppg on the Cavs. Jamal Crawford could probably get you Tim Thomas in return but getting a lottery pick with or without Thomas is ridiculous.
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Bonn1997
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5/5/2008  5:23 AM
Posted by SupremeCommander:

This is the last comment I'll make on this subject... I think that they are comparable players. I think that Crawford isn't worthy of being a 40 minute a game player, but that's what he did this year. If Tim Thomas had Jamal Crawford's role, they'd have similar number. In fact, I just made an Excel spread sheet to illustrate this:

	
TTC JC0708 TT0708
MPG 26.70 39.90 39.90
PPG 11.80 20.80 21.08
FTA 1934.00 384.00 384.00
FTM 1466.00 328.00 291.08
FT% 0.76 0.85 0.76
FGA 7378.00 1391.00 1391.00
FGM 3220.00 570.00 607.08
FG% 0.44 0.41 0.44
3PA 2377.00 496.00 496.00
3PM 868.00 176.00 181.12
3P% 0.37 0.35 0.37
RPG 4.20 2.60 6.28
RPM 0.16 0.16
APG 1.60 5.00 2.39
APM 0.06 0.06


TTC = Tim Thomas' career
JC0708 = Jamal Crawford's 07-08 numbers
TT0708 = Tim Thomas' estimate performance in Jamal Crawford's role

You'll notice that the numbers are very, very similar. For PPG, I used this equation: (3PM*3+(FGM-3PM)*2+FTM)/80

They're nearly identical, except mroe rebounds for TT and more assists for Jamal (which you'd expect in both cases given their positions). Good work. This is a case of people overvaluing a player because they don't understand how mpg affects stats. Jamal's not gonna make a meaningful difference to any team's W/L total. If LA is in a win now mode, as Briggs speculates, they'd be better off hoping to get a lottery player who contributes in year 1 (plenty have) or trading for a better veteran.

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 05-05-2008 05:27 AM]
Anji
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5/5/2008  4:58 PM
If playing a player more minutes meant more production then why didn't anybody in the NBA figure this out??? SC is the only person with excel???

There is a reason why Tim Thomas has spent most of his career playing under 30 minutes a game and if you pull in Joe Johnson, Vince Carter and Jason Richardson you get "comparable" numbers. Tim Thomas wouldn't put the same numbers in anybody else's role and it's stupid to say that.

Tim Thomas isn't near the player Jamal is.

Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!
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nyk4ever
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5/5/2008  5:05 PM
Posted by Anji:



Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!

How many posts that include statements like this do we have to see? This has gone on for a few days now.. show some respect for the people.
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Bonn1997
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5/5/2008  7:57 PM
Posted by nyk4ever:
Posted by Anji:



Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!

How many posts that include statements like this do we have to see? This has gone on for a few days now.. show some respect for the people.
I don't know why this guy hasn't been banned or at least warned but it's not my call. I really think this forum should have some guidelines (that are enforced) on what's appropriate and what's not


[Edited by - bonn1997 on 05-05-2008 7:58 PM]
nyk4ever
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5/5/2008  9:44 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by nyk4ever:
Posted by Anji:



Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!

How many posts that include statements like this do we have to see? This has gone on for a few days now.. show some respect for the people.
I don't know why this guy hasn't been banned or at least warned but it's not my call. I really think this forum should have some guidelines (that are enforced) on what's appropriate and what's not


[Edited by - bonn1997 on 05-05-2008 7:58 PM]

I don't think theres too many problems like this. Theres always going to be the poster every now and then that starts saying crap like this. I just don't get why you would think it's ok to say that. 99% of the people on this forum know better.
"OMG - did we just go on a two-trade-wining-streak?" -SupremeCommander
GKFv2
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5/5/2008  9:55 PM
Posted by nyk4ever:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by nyk4ever:
Posted by Anji:



Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!

How many posts that include statements like this do we have to see? This has gone on for a few days now.. show some respect for the people.
I don't know why this guy hasn't been banned or at least warned but it's not my call. I really think this forum should have some guidelines (that are enforced) on what's appropriate and what's not


[Edited by - bonn1997 on 05-05-2008 7:58 PM]

I don't think theres too many problems like this. Theres always going to be the poster every now and then that starts saying crap like this. I just don't get why you would think it's ok to say that. 99% of the people on this forum know better.

The funny thing this guy runs in here from time to time to tell me that my posting sucks meanwhile he posts crap like that.
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TrueBlue
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5/5/2008  10:06 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by nyk4ever:
Posted by Anji:



Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!

How many posts that include statements like this do we have to see? This has gone on for a few days now.. show some respect for the people.
I don't know why this guy hasn't been banned or at least warned but it's not my call. I really think this forum should have some guidelines (that are enforced) on what's appropriate and what's not


[Edited by - bonn1997 on 05-05-2008 7:58 PM]



I would of had a strong warning from Andrew or Martin by now at half the offense. Oh well Anji do what he do.
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SupremeCommander
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5/5/2008  11:16 PM
Redd and JR smith are "comparable" too you know.... excel that you dick!!!

Let's see if this assertion is credible:


JRSC MR0708 JRS0708
GP 268 72 72
MPG 21.4 37.5 37.50
PPG 10.9 22.7 20.51
FTA 566 490 384.00
FTM 424 402 287.66
FT% 0.75 0.82 0.75
FGA 2432 1243.00 1243.00
FGM 1034 550.00 528.48
FG% 0.43 0.44 0.43
3PA 1193 359 359.00
3PM 439 130 132.10
3P% 0.37 0.36 0.37
RPG 2.1 3.1 3.68
RPM 0.10 0.08 0.10
APG 1.60 3.4 2.80
APM 0.07 0.09 0.07


It's clear that, no, they are not comparable players. For starters, Michael Redd was injured last season, and his knees are kind of shot. He's not the Michael Redd of old. JR Smith would score about two points less in the same time. Furthermore, there is a flaw in this model. This assumes a linear relationship between the independent variables. I promise, I will work out the kinks and report back to you at the most opportune time.

I pointed the above out because as we all know, rates aren't completely stagnant. In the case of Jamal Crawford and Tim Thomas, they were both playing 30+ minutes a night, so the relationship is closer to linear. In this model, we're assuming JR Smith will perform at the same level in 21 minutes a night as Redd will do in 37, which is less believable.

Solid input. Thanks for helping my model out!

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SupremeCommander
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5/6/2008  12:13 AM
So now I'm really trying to work the kinks out. Definitely not finished, but I'd say it's improved. Instead of predicting one value, I'm predicting a range. You can see it's definitely far from done, but I'm making progress:


JRS1 JRS2 JRS3 JRS4 JRSC MR0708 JRS0708
GP 76 55 63 74 268 72 72
MPG 24.5 18.0 23.4 19.2 21.4 37.5 37.50
PPG 10.3 7.7 13.0 12.3 11.0 22.7 20.51

FGA 9.8 6.7 10.2 9.1 2432 1243.00 1243.00
FGM 3.9 2.6 4.5 4.2 1034 550.00 528.48
FG% 0.40 0.39 0.44 0.46 0.43 0.44 0.43
-0.02 0.14 0.05
FG variance 0.006573367

FTA 2.1 1.8 2 2.4 566 490 384.00
FTM 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 424 402 287.66
FT% 0.71 0.83 0.80 0.71 0.75 0.82 0.75
0.14 -0.04 -0.13
FT variance 0.02

3PA 281 140 382 390 1193 359 359.00
3PM 81 52 149 157 439 130 132.10
3P% 0.29 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.37
0.22 0.05 0.03
3P variance 0.011417675

Points range: 20.2758844 20.74423884



So, in this case, The predicted range would be for JR Smith to score between 20.27 PPG and 20.74 PPG if he fit Michael Redd's role on the Bucks. I'd like to put a weighted emphasis on the later season though and perhaps a month-by-month break down, as well as performance in the games Smith started versus coming off the bench, etc.
DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
Andrew
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5/6/2008  12:32 PM
Anji, please clean up your posts.
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