BigDaddyG wrote:

DLeethal wrote:

ToddTT wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M

But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/LegionHoops/status/1840790972491551063

This is embarrassingly bad across the board. Celtics won 64 game last year lol. Where the sharks are placing their money is always a better tell then anything else, in my opinion.

EwingsGlass wrote:

firefly wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

DLeethal wrote:

ToddTT wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M

But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/LegionHoops/status/1840790972491551063

This better be on every dressing room wall. Bring. It. On.

Flawed analytics. Someone should get told to do their homework again. They literally have every top team regressing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/41438914/win-projections-all-30-nba-teams-2024-25-season

My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

Basically saying after his system performed terribly last year, he adjusted it to make it more random. What he is left with is an absolute regression to the mean where teams are collapsed towards 42 wins. This effectively makes it less wrong, not more right. Meaning, he will be wrong by less standard deviations but will have no chance of predicting the outliers correctly. I think this is closer to the least number of wins a team will have on the upper side of 42 and the most wins a team could have on the lower side of 42

fishmike wrote:those win totals are a joke, but so is ESPN.

I dont care what people think... Im ready to see the boys cook

I'm with you. Kind of eager to see them finish the trade though. Its kind of hanging out there. Want to get the guys into camp.

fishmike wrote:those win totals are a joke, but so is ESPN.

I dont care what people think... Im ready to see the boys cook

You gotta play the games of course. I think the totals themselves are not instructive - but how they place the teams in the standings is potentially.

EwingsGlass wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

firefly wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

DLeethal wrote:

ToddTT wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M

But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/LegionHoops/status/1840790972491551063

This better be on every dressing room wall. Bring. It. On.

Flawed analytics. Someone should get told to do their homework again. They literally have every top team regressing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/41438914/win-projections-all-30-nba-teams-2024-25-season

My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

Basically saying after his system performed terribly last year, he adjusted it to make it more random. What he is left with is an absolute regression to the mean where teams are collapsed towards 42 wins. This effectively makes it less wrong, not more right. Meaning, he will be wrong by less standard deviations but will have no chance of predicting the outliers correctly. I think this is closer to the least number of wins a team will have on the upper side of 42 and the most wins a team could have on the lower side of 42

Ha I think you nailed it

EwingsGlass wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

firefly wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

DLeethal wrote:

ToddTT wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M

But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/LegionHoops/status/1840790972491551063

This better be on every dressing room wall. Bring. It. On.

Flawed analytics. Someone should get told to do their homework again. They literally have every top team regressing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/41438914/win-projections-all-30-nba-teams-2024-25-season

My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

Basically saying after his system performed terribly last year, he adjusted it to make it more random. What he is left with is an absolute regression to the mean where teams are collapsed towards 42 wins. This effectively makes it less wrong, not more right. Meaning, he will be wrong by less standard deviations but will have no chance of predicting the outliers correctly. I think this is closer to the least number of wins a team will have on the upper side of 42 and the most wins a team could have on the lower side of 42

yea this just seems like skewing everyone down toward .500 to the mean.

Realistically there's no way 53 wins leads the entire NBA.

VDesai wrote:While I still say to ignore the win totals and looking at the rankings - I don't really know how you trust a model that on paper predicts the Cavs to be the 2nd best team in the league and better than the Knicks, Sixers and Bucks. But that the same time, the Cavs were at half strength most of the year and still pushed the 50 win mark, so maybe they are better than everyone thinks.

Yeah, that's his argument.

The Cavaliers' decision to prioritize continuity is rewarded in the projections, which have them near their 2022-23 total of 51 wins on average. One key caveat: Roster fit is among the most important factors not captured in these projections, and how well Cleveland's stars complement one another is a major storyline that will carry into this season.

The Knicks jumped the Philadelphia 76ers up to fifth with Friday's reported trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, who's an enormous upgrade on New York's thin depth chart at center. Losing both Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle leaves the Knicks weaker on the perimeter, which could be an issue if they experience a long-term injury there. However, Miles McBride rates as a capable sixth man and New York could enjoy even more benefit from strengthening their starting five come playoff time.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/DJAceNBA/status/1841132397233902017

EwingsGlass wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

firefly wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

DLeethal wrote:

ToddTT wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Nalod wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M

But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/LegionHoops/status/1840790972491551063

This better be on every dressing room wall. Bring. It. On.

Flawed analytics. Someone should get told to do their homework again. They literally have every top team regressing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/41438914/win-projections-all-30-nba-teams-2024-25-season

My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

Basically saying after his system performed terribly last year, he adjusted it to make it more random. What he is left with is an absolute regression to the mean where teams are collapsed towards 42 wins. This effectively makes it less wrong, not more right. Meaning, he will be wrong by less standard deviations but will have no chance of predicting the outliers correctly. I think this is closer to the least number of wins a team will have on the upper side of 42 and the most wins a team could have on the lower side of 42

As JB said, he will let everyone else make predictions and continue to put in the work.
Focus is for guys to stay healthy.
It’s a very good team if they do.

martin wrote:I don't yet have a good feel for these guys but they have thoughts

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://www.twitter.com/FrankBarrett119/status/1841124943372693877

Another mention of Deuce starting. Im wondering if it might actually happen. We all know Thibs lo es Josh and he will he this minutes nonetheless, but this setup makes me curious.