well then let me tell you....
Team 1 - 250
Team 2 - 200
Team 3 - 157
Team 4 - 120
Team 5 - 89
Team 6 - 64
Team 7 - 44
Team 8 - 29
Team 9 - 18
Team 10 - 11
Team 11 - 7
Team 12 - 6
Team 13 - 5

Remember, the first 3 picks are selected from the balls, after that its draft order. I wont kill you with the math but the Knicks (at 5th) would have a 8.9% chance at the #1 pick. However if the #1 team gets the #1 pick the Knicks would then have a 12% chance at winning the #2 pick. If the #2 team won that the Knicks would have 16% chance at getting #3.

You cant add the %s, the math doesnt work that way, HOEVER the Knicks would have slightly better then a 25% chance to move up to the top 3. Take a look at the top 3 picks over recent years. This is a good place to be.

To root for the team is acceptable, understandable even. But sometimes you have to look at the team on the floor and be honest with yourself. Name a team that won a championship without a top of the lottery (i.e. top three pick) stud. You can't. Shaq, Duncan, Jordan, Hakeem, Bird, Thomas, Magic, soon Lebron. Even if you want to say Detroit: Sheed and Billups went fourth and third, respectively and Hamilton was a lotto pick too. Teams are built in the lotto and occassionally, you get lucky and find a franchise STUD in the lotto.

I'm rooting for a piece that helps this team, a la Warrick and maybe if we're lucky we move to the top three and get a Bogut or Taft or convince Boone to come out with a promise to take him third. That's not "unrealistic," its smart planning. It's not "rooting against the team," its rooting for the franchise to acquire a great asset to add to a nice core of Marbury and Craw (lotto picks, both).

The talent drop-off after the top 5 is steep. This team needs TOP talent and the there's a very easy way to do that. You cut Marbury's minutes. You don't let Allan come back this year. You trade Kurt to San Antonio for a first round pick and Malik (Malone retired, Cliff went to the Nets and the Spurs need a big). You start Sweetney and Ariza and see if they can be part of the plan or if they need to be shipped.

Rooting for this team to make the playoffs and hoping for some miracle bail out trade for Jalen Rose(?!?!?!?!?) or something is what is unrealistic and what will CRIPPLE this team for years to come. They lose this year, they win big in terms of adding a player. This lack of desire to plan A LITTLE is shocking. I mean, do you guys not notice what Miami did? How do you think they got Dwyane Wade and Shaq? By trying to win every game possible? NO! They tanked for Wade and got extremely lucky with Shaq.

This is basketball, where one draft pick can determine the fate of a franchise for 20 years. This is an important draft and saving face and winning 8 more games doesn't do CRAP.

Posted by crzymdups:

I mean, do you guys not notice what Miami did? How do you think they got Dwyane Wade and Shaq?

Miami lost Zo due to his medical condition and they got an unbelievable stroke of luck when Anthony Carter's moron agent forgot to submit the paperwork to exercise his player option. That cap room they gained when Carter's terrible contract came off the books allowed them to sign Lamar Odom. They didn't just tank 2 seasons in a row.

---

Look, I know where all of you guys are coming from, but I can't root for the Knicks to lose games. I think losing damages players. And anyway, if we really stand to benefit from losing, why be so half-hearted about it? Let's ship Marbury and force a team to take Houston along with him. We'll take back garbage and draft picks in return. Sound familiar?

Posted by fishmike:

well then let me tell you....
Team 1 - 250
Team 2 - 200
Team 3 - 157
Team 4 - 120
Team 5 - 89
Team 6 - 64
Team 7 - 44
Team 8 - 29
Team 9 - 18
Team 10 - 11
Team 11 - 7
Team 12 - 6
Team 13 - 5

Remember, the first 3 picks are selected from the balls, after that its draft order. I wont kill you with the math but the Knicks (at 5th) would have a 8.9% chance at the #1 pick. However if the #1 team gets the #1 pick the Knicks would then have a 12% chance at winning the #2 pick. If the #2 team won that the Knicks would have 16% chance at getting #3.

You cant add the %s, the math doesnt work that way, HOEVER the Knicks would have slightly better then a 25% chance to move up to the top 3. Take a look at the top 3 picks over recent years. This is a good place to be.

25% chance if we the Knicks finish 5th worst? What are the odds of getting a top 3 pick if they finish where they currently are (6th)?

there's a lot of random probability.. if another non-top 3 team moves up your chances are crap. If you dont win the lottery, what you need to happen to move up is the 2 top teams to get 1 and 2 because they own the most balls increasing your chances.

The point is if your 5 you have a realistic chance of moving to 1-3. If you 7-9 you chance sucks, plain and simple.

I voted yes.

When I watch the game I root for my team to win.

When they lose I am not upset.

When they win I am ecstatic.

Ahhh, life of a NY Knick fan.

Posted by GoNyGoNyGo:

Mike Francesa says the Knicks are so horrible that he cannot watch, yet he then says that IT says NY is younger but as MikeF says, the young guys are no good! HOW THE HECK DO YOU KNOW???? YOU ADMIT TO NOT WATCHING! So SMUG. I cannot see how anyone can watch Sweetney and Ariza and say they are no good. Are they superstars? Probably not, but Ariza has a chance to be darn good.

The stupidity of Mike & the Mad dog drives me nuts! I felt the same way after I heard Mike say that! He doesn't understand that the Knicks are no good because the vets are no good plain and simple and thats who the Knicks are giving all the minutes to!!

They have a good point when they criticize Isiah because last year it was "welcome to the playoffs" this year is "we're rebuilding for the future" It makes Isiah look really stupid. But so what! Isiah made a couple mistakes...what GM doesn't make mistakes? Sometimes you look like a genius other times you look stupid. Unless you're Scott Layden and can't get anything right. I really do see a little racism in those guys. They hate seeing a black man succeed.

Bonn, I think you stated in another thread (which I can't locate) that a team doesn't need to be under the cap to rebuild. I do agree with that. But I don't agree with your statement that we shouldn't rebuild via the draft. The draft is where you can add the most impact for a reasonable amount of $$$$. When a team rebuilds, it needs to build through the draft. But to build through the draft, one needs a high pick. To get a high pick, one needs to tank. To tank, one needs to shed some of its best players. And when you shed your best players, you usually shed salary with it, and come closer to being under the cap. In the end, being under the cap is more of a by-product of rebuilding, rather than a requirement.

I say we need to tank. Trade whoever we can for picks and the losses will come, and we won't have to worry about rooting against the team.

[Edited by - nykdunk on 02/15/2005 22:14:35]

I want us to lose every game left on the schedule. The way we play defense that's what we deserve.

And even if the effort was there, we're just not talented enough to compete with the better teams in the league.

We need good luck in the draft, and another trade, or two. Or three. Keep Kurt, Sweets, and Marbury and trade anyone else. Hmmmm... keep JYD too if possible.

I am tired of watching this crew. I went ten years without missing a game, and now I just don't care any more.