From Insider...


The skinny on Yao Ming
by Chad Ford


Size matters. Just ask Bulls operations chief Jerry Krause and Knicks president Scott Layden, who both seem to have a helluva lot in common these days.

The Knicks and Bulls are mired in the type of stuff Bulls usually excrete, not celebrate. Krause and Layden are both full of personality. They both need a dominant center in the middle -- no offense, Dalibor Bagaric and Felton Spencer. Now, both Krause and Layden are on the road to China.

No, Krause isn't there just for the all-you-can-eat spare ribs. And despite what you think, Layden didn't show up at JFK Wednesday with a passport and a disguise just to get out of Dodge.

Like just about everyone else in the league, they're drooling over Yao Ming. They're in China to see Yao -- the giant Chinese center who was supposed to change the face of the NBA last year. Until, that his, his team, the Shanghai Sharks, put the kibosh on the Yao party by refusing to release him.

While Yao has fallen out of the headlines, he's not off the NBA radar screen. Krause and Layden aren't the first GM's to make the trip. They won't be the last. This year, Yao will be drafted. He turns 22 during the calendar year, making him eligible for the draft whether he declares for it or not. The question is where will he go in the draft?

That depends largely on what the Sharks do. League sources agree that if the Sharks release him to play in the NBA -- he's a lock for the top five in the draft. If they don't -- he still could go as high as the late lottery. He's that good. Er, at least we think he is.

Yao has representatives constantly pleading his case. They were close to a release last year. This year, league officials believe they'll finally get their hooks in him. 2002, it seems, is the Year of the Yao.

Which of course means that Yao will be cheerful, skillful with money and perceptive, although he'll sometimes talk too much. Huh? OK, so I've been reading the place mat from the local Golden Dragon Chinese restaurant in Bristol.

So what's all the fuss, or dare we say hype, about a guy who often had his lunch handed to him by Wang Zhi-Zhi when they played against each other in China? Is Yao the next great NBA center or yet another big bust? It's the hottest debate in the NBA.

Want a peek into Yao's game? Think mutton chops. Scouts compare him to a young, healthy Bill Walton. Which, of course, is why Walton is using all of his big words, ones he normally reserves for his son Luke, on a big man few of us have ever seen.

Yao, apparently, left Walton "dizzy with possibilities," as he "felt the energy surge when he'd whip an outlet to launch a fast break and noted his decision making and great court demeanor, I knew I was peering into the future."

Calm down, Bill.

Sure, maybe you caught a glimpse of him in Sydney, on time delay of course, swatting a few of Team USA's shots back across the Pacific. Or, maybe you heard Larry Brown gushing that, "In four years, he could be one of the best players in the world."

Just four years, Larry?

Everyone agrees that he's big -- anywhere between 7-foot-4 and 7-foot-6 -- depending on whom you can ask. However, everyone also confirms he's a chop stick at 265 pounds. Scouts know he can shoot with range -- from 18 feet on in, can block an all-you-can-eat buffet of shots, is an above-average passer for a big man and has a certain fluidity, even grace, that makes Manute Bol look even more like the human Walking Stick that he was.

"The potential upside is so huge, how can you pass him up?" one Western Conference executive told Insider. "If he pans out, and I think we all understand that he's a huge 'if', Yao has the potential to dominate in the league. With the draft becoming younger and younger and the number of quality big men getting smaller and smaller you've got to take the gamble. Dominant players, truly dominant ones, don't come along very often."

Not everyone agrees. The kid isn't perfect. Few 7-footers ever are. Last year, Yao could do no wrong. This year NBA scouts are beginning to pick apart his game. They say his low-post game is weak, he's too thin to take the constant pounding in the post, and doesn't play with the aggressiveness to excel at the next level.

We'll pause for the obligatory Shawn Bradley deja vu.

"It's a weak draft, so I have no doubt he'll go high," one advance scout told Insider. "But the NBA post game is about power, not finesse. He'll get swallowed up. If teams had patience he could pan out, but he's a major project -- we're talking four or five years. Owners, and more importantly, season ticket holders, just don't have the patience for a guy like Yao."

It gets worse. Kids, you may want to move away from the keyboard for a few minutes as we get to the bad news.

There's very little hip in "Chairman" Yao's hop. He doesn't drive an Escalade. Prefers blocks to points -- takes away the heart. He doesn't dunk much -- not the Chinese way. His favorite player is Arvydas Sabonis -- sorry Kobe. In other words, his game won't land him a SportsCenter dossier. And while David Stern may be able to sell him to a billion Chinese, will he get the ESPN generation to tune in?

And that's not the worst of it. What if he doesn't even come to the NBA? What if China, in the wake of President Bush's proselytizing trip to the Far East, decides that the American way may not be the best way for Yao. Can Layden, or anyone for that matter, survive another Frederic Weis?

This we know. Someone will roll the dice. The league is experiencing a famine of true centers.

Mark Cuban just took on $90 million in long-term contracts just for the opportunity to give Raef LaFrentz another $80 million this summer. Michael Olowokandi, 1998's No. 1 pick, is still stuck in the twilight zone known as "upside." The college ranks will give us Western Kentucky's Chris Marcus and possibly Stanford's Curtis Borchardt this year.

GMs are hungry for size. In the world of TV dinners, Marcus is Salisbury Steak. Yao is a Hungry Man. In a league, rightly or wrongly, obsessed with size, teams are already in line to take the risk.

With no silver bullet for Shaq, no real foil for Tim Duncan, the time is Yao.

Posted by Starks3:

This guy sucks!!!!

I don't know how you can say he sucks. Just look at all thats being said of him. The worst he will be in an above-average center. I can't even imagine how good he will be at his best. He is the real deal.

I would rather draft Qyntel Woods, a 6 ft. 9 swingman and then bank on getting James next year, then being able to somehow deal Sprewell and Houston (Juwan Howard and his $18 million a year contract has been traded twice in the last year, so don't tell me it isn't possible) then have the 2 and 3 of James and Woods. Could be a bit scary, like a Pierce/Walker combo. Do I think this will happen? No. I'm just throwing things out there, :D

Posted by BigSm00th:

I would rather draft Qyntel Woods, a 6 ft. 9 swingman and then bank on getting James next year, then being able to somehow deal Sprewell and Houston (Juwan Howard and his $18 million a year contract has been traded twice in the last year, so don't tell me it isn't possible) then have the 2 and 3 of James and Woods. Could be a bit scary, like a Pierce/Walker combo. Do I think this will happen? No. I'm just throwing things out there, :D

I don't think you can count on taking Woods and trying to trade Sprewell or Houston just because there's a lot of work and it's a big gamble. Woods is a juco player and they have been known to have trouble adjusting to the league just like the euros. Stick with Ming or Gooden and keep the rest of the core the same, then we'll see what happens.

hey my pplz that bleed Knicks out there @#$!..We all know what is going to happen to Camby next season over again so lets hope Ming comes through.

Posted by VG:

Posted by BigSm00th:

If you say you can't select a JUCO player because they have trouble adjusting, which I tend to agree with, then you can't go out and select a Chinese center because he'll have more trouble adjusting. Does anyone even know if Ming speaks English? How is he going to call for the ball or ask for help if nobody knows what he's saying?

I think he does speak english. And Yao Ming has game compared to Bradley...

Man, my unborn (and yet to be conceived) children have more game than Shawn Bradley. That's hardly a yardstick. All this back and forth--Ming Sucks vs. Ming's the Real Deal--is kind of silly considering not even pro scouts, let alone any of us, can form any kind of real concensus. The real question is whether or not the Knicks should be using their highest pick in recent memory on someone with high injury potential essentially built into their body, not to mention a murky contract situation with a foreign team. Add to that the fact that the foreign team in question is in Red China, meaning the state itself could get involved, and I think that's just too much risk versus a highly questionable payoff. Not that I'm against the Knicks gambling, but I'd much rather they gamble in the Kobe, McGrady, Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal vein. We all know that someone's going to gamble on a young player with a high lottery pick (maybe even out of the lottery), and three years from now everyone who didn't will look stupid. I just find it hard to believe a super-skinny 7'6" player completely unprepared for NBA punishment will be able to stay healthy. Guys that big get injured, they tend to stay injured, it seems. If we got a top-three pick, I'd try to shop it to another lottery team (packaged with one of our many ugly contracts) for their higher pick and filler. Filler with an expiring contract probably wouldn't work, but it would be nice...

The most complete center in the draft? Please don't tell me you think he's better then Shaq. And what, do you live in China? Have you seen tapes of him? Why are you so confident in Yao Ming being the next best thing for the NBA. Ming has strength. MING HAS STRENGTH? He is 7 foot 6 inches and weighs 280 pounds. My friend, who is a Catholic state wrestling champion for the 160 pound weight class, is about 5 foot 8 and all muscle and he weighs around 165. For you to say someone has "strength" when they are 7 foot 6 and doesn't weight 300 pounds is ludicrous. Absolutely ludicrous. This is such a crapshoot, the guy has Frederic F'ing Weis written all over him, from head to toe. I would put up good numbers in China, there is no way Ming could start a dynasty for the Knicks, no way, and absolutely no way in hell that he could play 82 games for the Knicks and put up good numbers. I would bet large sums of money on this...

[Edited by - bigsm00th on 03/02/2002 19:45:58]

yo knixkick, you are crazy
someone should lock you up for a long time. Ming is weak.and not to be mean, but nothing that comes out of Asia in the sports world is good, except for ichiro. ming is a poor choice to take in the upcoming draft. the knicks are horrible as it is, and they don't need another big guy that stinks. they need a young, good force, to build upon. I'll be forever mackin'...Wheres Mirsad Turkan???wooooooooooooooo

Posted by BigSm00th:

The most complete center in the draft? Please don't tell me you think he's better then Shaq. And what, do you live in China? Have you seen tapes of him? Why are you so confident in Yao Ming being the next best thing for the NBA. Ming has strength. MING HAS STRENGTH? He is 7 foot 6 inches and weighs 280 pounds. My friend, who is a Catholic state wrestling champion for the 160 pound weight class, is about 5 foot 8 and all muscle and he weighs around 165. For you to say someone has "strength" when they are 7 foot 6 and doesn't weight 300 pounds is ludicrous. Absolutely ludicrous. This is such a crapshoot, the guy has Frederic F'ing Weis written all over him, from head to toe. I would put up good numbers in China, there is no way Ming could start a dynasty for the Knicks, no way, and absolutely no way in hell that he could play 82 games for the Knicks and put up good numbers. I would bet large sums of money on this...

[Edited by - bigsm00th on 03/02/2002 19:45:58]

Ming will be the most complete center inthe league. I didn't say he will be the best, but the most complete. Shaq will be the best for years to come, but he relies entirely on his size and strength to get him the numbers he has. Ming will have the most well-rounded game for a center because he can do so many different things.

I'm getting a little worried. The more we break down these supposed "can't miss" prospects, the more weaknesses we find. It seems the only sure thing is LeBron James, and he's coming out next year. Jason Williams has the turnover problems and the free throw troubles. Stoudemire is a big question mark. Woods might develop, as could Ming, but they both might have trouble adjusting. Gooden is a mix between a 3 and 4. Ah, this is madness, I can't wait till the draft. And uh, Net fan dude, get the hell out. It's apparent since there are no Nets fans out there there aren't any fan sites, go to the ESPN.com messageboards to talk to your fellow, notice the singular, not plural fellow, Net fan.

After Ming i would definetly take Gooden because he's one of the few, if not the only, proven big men in the draft. We know he will be good, but it's also safe to say he doesn't have the potential Yao Ming has. I think we need to look at Ming first and Gooden second. Amare would come after that. I also like Marcus Haislip, but maybe one Camby is enough.