VDesai wrote:

fishmike wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

fishmike wrote:

VDesai wrote:Defending Jimmy Butler is not the same as defending Donavan Mitchell, but with Hart, Grimes and Quickley to throw at him, I think we have guys who won't back down and will make it hard for him. They only had two other players that could create their own offense- Herro and a lesser extent Oladipo. And those guys are both out. The difference between this series and the Cavs series is the Heat have many, many shooters. Strus, Robinson, Love, Vincent, Martin - these guys will all make 3s if you leave em open, whereas Oladipo, Levert and Osman couldn't hurt us consistently. Adebayo has more dimensions to his game Mobley at this point - but I have 100% confidence in Mitch/Hartenstein.

great analysis. I was looking at how they beat the Bucks (its almost perplexing) and you nailed it. Miami shot 45% from 3. There's no way Thibs see's that and lets them fire away.

Its going to be really interesting. I dont want to underestimate the Heat, but I dont see how they can hang with us. Bam is a monster, but after that they are leaning heavily on Love (he's played well) and guys like Caleb Martin who are their versions of our Josh Hart.

I see another big rebounding advantage. I just dont think Miami's shooting is sustainable. Even with Giannis being banged up I dont know how Miami shot .519 and .450 from 3 FOR THE SERIES. Are they expecting to repeat that?

That's kind of been Thibs MO since he's been here. We give up a bunch of threes. The fact that they have three point shooters worries me. I'm curious to see what defensive tweaks, if any, Thibs makes.

I was looking at splits for any trends as I remember our 3pt defense being really bad to start the year and improving later. However our month by month splits are all over the place so there's really no rhyme or reason.

It looks pretty straightforward to me... can the Heat shoot their way to victory or will the Knick defense hold?

Regular season Miami had the lowest PPG and 25th ranked offense. I also think road/home doesnt really matter with either of these teams. We looked a bit rattled in game 2 but obviously we can win on the road as well

Thought we had the no.1 ranked D against 3 pt shooting in the 2020 Covid season, but we also had the highest rate in the league of people missing open 3's against us. So a bit of luck. Last 2 yrs its been our achilles heel as it seems all the open ones go in. Easiest way to blow a 10-12 pt lead at the end of the game.

Month to month and even game to game splits will vary because 3 pt shooting has a high standard deviation.

A lot of luck. It was the reason we beat a lot of our projected win totals in the bubble season. I read somewhere earlier this season that Mitch had one of the best defensive numbers against floaters. Gives me hope that it will help us gum up Butler a little bit in the paint. It'll be tough if Jimmy continues hitting three in the playoffs. We know Duncan and Status can't handle RJ physically, so the Heat will definitely give up something if they leave them in the floor. I expect the Brunson Burner to take advantage of Kyle, tho Lowry's strength might pose a little deterrent. Of course, I expect Gabe Vincent to turn into Desmond Bane against us. I hope Randle is OK so we can continue grinding teams with depth.

TPercy wrote:Man I had Cavs in 6 last time but then we beat in 5. But I do fear Butler may be too much so I went with MIA in 7 but we got a shot at winning this for sure

Another ban possibility.

Man we should just use these prediction threads to weed out the weak Knicks fandom folks

TPercy wrote:

martin wrote:

TPercy wrote:Man I had Cavs in 6 last time but then we beat in 5. But I do fear Butler may be too much so I went with MIA in 7 but we got a shot at winning this for sure

Another ban possibility.

Man we should just use these prediction threads to weed out the weak Knicks fandom folks

Have some sympathy! Part of my predictions are fueled by me just not wanting to be dissapointed given history with team

OK, PSD is the only excuse left

VDesai wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

VDesai wrote:

fishmike wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

fishmike wrote:

VDesai wrote:Defending Jimmy Butler is not the same as defending Donavan Mitchell, but with Hart, Grimes and Quickley to throw at him, I think we have guys who won't back down and will make it hard for him. They only had two other players that could create their own offense- Herro and a lesser extent Oladipo. And those guys are both out. The difference between this series and the Cavs series is the Heat have many, many shooters. Strus, Robinson, Love, Vincent, Martin - these guys will all make 3s if you leave em open, whereas Oladipo, Levert and Osman couldn't hurt us consistently. Adebayo has more dimensions to his game Mobley at this point - but I have 100% confidence in Mitch/Hartenstein.

great analysis. I was looking at how they beat the Bucks (its almost perplexing) and you nailed it. Miami shot 45% from 3. There's no way Thibs see's that and lets them fire away.

Its going to be really interesting. I dont want to underestimate the Heat, but I dont see how they can hang with us. Bam is a monster, but after that they are leaning heavily on Love (he's played well) and guys like Caleb Martin who are their versions of our Josh Hart.

I see another big rebounding advantage. I just dont think Miami's shooting is sustainable. Even with Giannis being banged up I dont know how Miami shot .519 and .450 from 3 FOR THE SERIES. Are they expecting to repeat that?

That's kind of been Thibs MO since he's been here. We give up a bunch of threes. The fact that they have three point shooters worries me. I'm curious to see what defensive tweaks, if any, Thibs makes.

I was looking at splits for any trends as I remember our 3pt defense being really bad to start the year and improving later. However our month by month splits are all over the place so there's really no rhyme or reason.

It looks pretty straightforward to me... can the Heat shoot their way to victory or will the Knick defense hold?

Regular season Miami had the lowest PPG and 25th ranked offense. I also think road/home doesnt really matter with either of these teams. We looked a bit rattled in game 2 but obviously we can win on the road as well

Thought we had the no.1 ranked D against 3 pt shooting in the 2020 Covid season, but we also had the highest rate in the league of people missing open 3's against us. So a bit of luck. Last 2 yrs its been our achilles heel as it seems all the open ones go in. Easiest way to blow a 10-12 pt lead at the end of the game.

Month to month and even game to game splits will vary because 3 pt shooting has a high standard deviation.

A lot of luck. It was the reason we beat a lot of our projected win totals in the bubble season. I read somewhere earlier this season that Mitch had one of the best defensive numbers against floaters. Gives me hope that it will help us gum up Butler a little bit in the paint. It'll be tough if Jimmy continues hitting three in the playoffs. We know Duncan and Status can't handle RJ physically, so the Heat will definitely give up something if they leave them in the floor. I expect the Brunson Burner to take advantage of Kyle, tho Lowry's strength might pose a little deterrent. Of course, I expect Gabe Vincent to turn into Desmond Bane against us. I hope Randle is OK so we can continue grinding teams with depth.

Yes let's not forget that the Heat are worse equipped to guard Brunson than the Cavs were. Besides not having two quick guards to press or even someone like Okoro, we've got an ancient/past prime Lowry here and a lot less athleticism than the Cavs. Randle should also eat up the matchup if healthy. If RJ is matched up against Butler and can score physical points in the paint that can really help neutralize him a bit.

BigDaddyG wrote:Also, how do we defend Bam in the highpost? I don't have any worries about Bam stopping Mitch on the offensive boards, but Bam pulling Mitch outside could stifle our rim protection.

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We can give Bam a few different looks.
I think a (healthy) Randle would ordinarily get the main assignment. Our not so secret antidote for Bam in crunch time is Josh Hart. He's not shy about bodying up bigs - we saw him undercutting Jarrett Allen in his box outs. He can take on Bam outside and in.
But normally, I expect some sophisticated switching. If Bam is dribbling the ball up one of our wings will taken him. Our centers will have play a bit of zone D. If Bam steps anywhere near the paint the centers will take over.
I'd personally love it if we played zone and McBride or Quickley were harassing him. That'd teach the Heat a lesson really fast.

The Heat are going to be a very different match up because of the positional versatility of both Bam and Butler and their shooters. This team is constructed totally differently from the Cavs.

I do contend that the Knicks (at full strength) are well equipped depthwise and are capable of playing in a few different winning styles. It'll be interesting to see if the Knicks dictate with power game or go with small ball.

BRIGGS wrote:Knicks in 5.
game 1 win
game 2 win
game 3 loss
game 4 win
game 5 win

Ok - Heat 4-0

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