I agree that Utah, Houston, OKC, San Antonio, Orlando, Detroit, and Indiana have little chance at even making the play in. With Wembanyama in the draft it will be a race to the bottom from day one. The Spurs realized this at the deadline when they did the Derrick White trade.
Once a team drops out of the bottom 9, the odds get much worse. 9 has a 4.5% chance at one and 10 has a 3% chance. In the top 4 they are more than 20% and less than 14% respectively. I don't see the Lakers, Kings, Portland, Wizards, or Knicks tanking based on their rosters and offseason.
Charlotte is a big question mark for me. I think they should trade Rozier and tank from the get go but I don't know how that plays with LaMelo and Clifford who are the key guys there.
That race to the bottom 4 will be extremely competitive- you don't want to even try the first month because it will be tough to make up the losses later on. In that tank group I think Utah still has a competitive roster- just good enough to make a top 4 pick impossible if Mike Conley plays the first month or so. Westbrook might sadly be in high demand because he can suck up a lot of players that are helping your team win.
I think all of this won't make a difference to New York. Leon Rose and Thibs like this roster and there doesn't seem to be anyone out there who are significantly better than who the Knicks have or even a reasonable trade candidate on New York because of the players contract lengths. The only possibility is SGA but similar to D Mitchell, it's tough to imagine a trade that could improve New York.
Finally, I think Duarte is an unrealistic target. Who cares about a players age when they are on a rookie contract?